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hi my name is shy Finkelstein and I will present you the equity research presentation regarding FedEx cooperation it all began with Fred Smith economic paper while in college where he envisioned and analyzed that society became more automated computer companies would need to ensure that their products were dependable computers could not make business cheaper faster and more accurate unless they could be fixed rapidly there are manufacturers would need an amoeba logistics and delivery system to keep their customers happy from this dream from this paper Fred Smith created a multi-billion dollar business FedEx cooperation ticker FedEx recommendation neutral price on report date 108 dollars 59 cents price target 116 dollars forecast horizon 12 months target forecasted a hundred and sixteen dollars I would like to share with you some of the highlights for fedex corporation the modern era ground Express industry was pioneered with the founding of Federal Express in 1971 the cooperation was created in 1998's fedex cooperation and became fedex cooperation in january two thousand private profit improvement initiatives are tracking ahead of expectations management reiterated its profitability target of 1.7 billion dollars despite the challenges in express some highlights from the financial summary summary market capitalization 34-point 37 billion dollars based on data reported as of 9 9 13 dividend yield 0.6 EPS six-point 20 reported on data is reported on fedex website under investor relations summary of analysis FedEx is positioned in a very strong place and have some very favorable results however Express profitability remains low reinforcing the need for greater cost discipline and capacity reduction in addition the complexity of the overcapacity in the air freight industry and the ongoing trade down for international priority to international economy who creates uncertainties FedEx is still one of the top companies that even with its endemic financial returns will likely influence more favorable future shareholders out comers my recommendation for the next 12 months is neutral as there are too many factors that can affect its attractiveness a positive turning point we'd be in my mind if fedex would provide more dividends and 0 buybacks qualitative analysis company profile FedEx provide customers and business world wild with a broad portfolio of transportation ecommerce and business services it offers integrated businesses applications through operating companies competing collectively but at the same time managed collaboratively under the respected FedEx brand consistently ranked among the world's most admired and trusted employers FedEx inspire it's more than 290,000 employees to remain absolutely positively focused on safety the highest ethical and professional standards and the needs of their customers and communities what kind of services do they offer FedEx cooperation is in a way divided to fall different components fedex express fedex freight fedex ground and fedex services each one of them operates independently but collaboratively under the FedEx brand who are the customers its customer base is comprised of large cooperate government small and medium sized companies in individuals FedEx ships to almost every where in this universe the u.s. logistics and transportation industry overview the logistics and transportation industry in the United States is highly competitive by investing in this sector multinational firms position themselves to better facilitate the flow of goods throughout the world's largest consumer market international and domestic companies in this industry benefit from a highly skilled workforce and relatively low cost and regulatory burdens spending in the u.s. logistics and transportation industry totaled nearly to a 1.3 trillion dollars in 2011 a highly integrated supply chain network in the United States link producers and consumers through multiple transportations modes including air and express delivery services freight rail maritime transport and trunk transport to serve customers efficiently multinational and domestic firms provide payload logistics and transportation solutions that ensure coordinated Goods movement from origin or origin to end user through each supply chain network segments in a video interview with The Wall Street Journal in May of 2012 FedEx CEO and chairman Fred Smith commented that the uncertainty in the global markets especially in China and India poses challenges to the entire industry any report must have a SWOT analysis which means trying to analyze and examine the strength the weaknesses the opportunities and the threats that the company faces FedEx is well positioned in the leading company in its industry FedExing becoming a term that shows the strength of the brand and its reputation fedex has a variety of services to cover a large gamut of needs by their customers the company ground segment is continuing to drive earnings over the near term as a company's network then to see and had enhancement drive continued market share gains I expect ecommerce and b2c namely business to customers growth to continue to generate substantial revenue gains that should outstrip overall trucking demand growth for the foreseeable future in addition they have a very good reputation in customer service and commitment to communities weaknesses the company's express profitability remains depressed reinforcing the issue of greater cost discipline the risk-reward profile is much more balanced given the previous rally for their shares opportunities I would like to share with you two main opportunities a profit improvement initiatives tracking ahead of expectations management reiterated its profitability target of 1.7 billion dollars despite the challenges in express straight down and macro uncertainty in addition FedEx recent announcement of their completion of the first stage of a strategic acquisition by signing agreement to acquire the business operated by its current service provider named Petey Doug PTY ltd in five countries in southern Africa FedEx will be able to expand its market share and to expand their services threats the proposed merger between ups and DHL in Europe can take some market share and drive profit merging down in addition slower than anticipated benefits from planned cost-cutting initiatives can affect the short-term profitability of the company the global international decline in shipping that began in 2011 continues to contribute to the uncertainties Porter's five competitive forces was really built covered by my SWOT analysis however as you can see on that slide show there are some additional consideration that we need to think about when we recommend buying or not buying FedEx tax management we begin with Frederick W Smith as the chairman and president and chief executive officer for fedex corporation as you can see in this slide and some of the few other slides you see a short bio some background of each executive for FedEx cooperation in the next slide you see a names of all major holders in fedex cooperation as well as stop institutional holders I would like to share with you some of the exciting news from fedex cooperation FedEx reported higher year-over-year first quarter results on September 18th fedex corporation reported earnings of one point fifty three dollars per diluted share for the first quarter ending august 31st compared to one point $45 per share last year fedex express remains focused on reducing costs while facing challenging global economic conditions meanwhile FedEx Ground continues to generate strong profitability on growing customer demand for its services in addition in February of 2013 fedex announced its early voluntary buyout plan which will save the company's six hundred million dollars by fiscal year of 2016 in December of 2012 FedEx offered employees up to two years paid to live it's seeking to reduce annual costs by one point seven billion dollars by 2016 the company said that it was pessimistic about the US economy but confident about growing its own earnings now we should examine and analyze the financial ratio analysis this financial ratio analysis has been computed based on fedex income statement balance sheet and key statistics of may 2013 via yahoo finance as well as some other sources short term solvency liquidity ratio indicates the company's a built-in meet it's show term obligations the current ratio is more than one which is good as the company has more assets than liabilities the quick ratio is also good as many assets are available to pay immediate debts cash ratio is also relatively positive and good long-term this ratio indicates company ability to meet its debt obligations from cash earned FedEx uses forty-eight percent debt and fifty-two percent equity for its long-term financing both time interest and cash coverage ratio on a high and indicate that the company is able to easily meet its debt obligation which means that FedEx from that perspective is in a good position assets utilization this ratio indicates if the company uses its of its assets efficiently the turnover ratio indicates that FedEx uses its answered efficiently to generate sales and convert it to cash the receivable turnover and days the sales in receivable shows that the company collected outstanding credit accounts and real owned the money roughly every eight days and collect credit sales in roughly forty six days the total assets turnover indicates that the company is doing an okay job not a great job of use of its assets to generate sales profitability ratios these ratios indicates efficiency in use of assets as well as efficiency in operations the profit margin means that FedEx generates 0.0 35 per dollar from sales it appears to be low the owl OE is also not so high the company's use of its assets and operations should be examined internally and also must be compared to other companies in the industry in order to get a clearer picture uh Oh II market value ratios market value is based on the price of one hundred and eight dollars 59 cents of May 31st 2013 based on price earnings ratio the company sale it shares 22 point 11 times the company's earnings per share the value for stockholders is almost twice which is pretty good it's a nice value in this slide you see they are all using the DuPont analysis for fedex cooperation when we compare the io io for fedex of 2012 to 2013 we do see a decline in 2012 I OE was 13 point nineteen percent we're in 2013 it was only nine point six percent this is obviously a metal of concern as it indicates a decline in generating profit on every dollar in equity in an accounting terms in the financial terms FedEx experienced a decline in a financial leverage when we compared the IOA of FedEx and UPS LOL we do see that the aloe fo UPS is still higher than the ioe for um for UPS nevertheless the UPS merger with DHL that may happen on my not can create some threat to this leading position of FedEx as you see in this slide we see a child of comparison between FedEx and UPS the earning per share forecasting into 2014 can be shown on this slide in my only individual risks of a discussion i received a minimum score for high tolerance for risk of 33 I believe that part of it is due to the nature of the questions that were asked but perhaps it also will influence my decision in my recommendation to buy or not to buy fedex stocks my recommendation is neutral the financial status of FedEx looks stable and hopeful but nevertheless the challenges that they face as a result of the mixture of the following items make it neutral for the next 12 months Express profitability remains depressed highlighting the need for greater cost discipline and capacity reductions to reach current expectations for twenty-five percent EPS growth in fiscal year of 2015 risk/reward profile is now balanced given the recent rally ensures the stock has appreciated 34.3 percent over the past 12 months outperforming the S&P which is up 18.2 percent while we can expect global freight flow to show an upload growth the path is likely to remain choppy due to the uneven economic recovery the continued uncertainty that shake the confidence in the earnings outlook is due to the overcapacity in the air freight industry which will be complicated by the ongoing trade down from international priority to international economy counterbalancing the uncertainty in Express is the long-term bullish view of the company's ground business which operates at superior margins within the group management reiterated its profitability target of 1.7 billion dollars despite the challenges in express trade down and macro uncertainty one of the key reasons is due to its success toward its profit improvement initiatives including the early voluntary buyout plan which will save the company six hundred million dollars by fiscal year of 2016 notably FedEx raised its initial guidance from five hundred million dollars in this slide show you see the earning per share and the net income for casting one thing that I would like to share with you is day but it seems to be at first glance at discrepancy between the calculation of four point ninety three eps and what is reported as 620 and i think that part of the difference lies in the concept of diluted eps diluted earnings per share in terms of forecasting i think that for 2014 day earning per share will most likely grow to 6.8 e 0 to seven dollars due to an increase in net income that originates from cause discipline and efficiency so in conclusion there are many opportunities for growth in revenue for fedex in the next five years however for the next 12 months the uncertainty of global markets and internal issues make it neutral in conclusion if you currently have fedex stock hold on to it if you do not currently possess fedex doc it's really up to you to decide if you would like to wait for a while to see real returns oh if you would like to buy now and hope for the best