How Can I Sign Oregon Banking Presentation

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okay thank you um so so the food service has been sort of whoops uh this the story here and now after a a summer a period in the summer when we had some sort of positive developments and this is germany canada and the us for restaurant dining we've reversed course again uh germany uh is in a lockdown the uk is in a similar lockdown with a lot of pubs and restaurants closed uh canada is is seeing uh more more restaurant closures and the us as well so we're we're not really expecting to see this get any better uh over the winter over the winter months i mean especially with the spike that we've been seeing in the pandemic in the last few weeks the other issue that this raises uh the the shutdown of food service business is it there's a big debt overhang where the supply the restaurants have closed have failed to pay their suppliers and so right now there's sort of a debt that's being carried uh the u.s restaurant industry hoped that this would get addressed by congress and some kind of government relief uh that hasn't been the case so far and it's unclear if that's going to happen the danger is that this can hollow out the finances of the buyers already it means that they have less access to bank credit because they're still carrying this carrying these debts on their books but if we could see if we saw a big bankruptcy in the seafood industry from a major distributor or a companies that are struggling because they can't cover these these uncollected debts we could have a big backlash that would freeze up a lot of frozen seafood purchasing so as i said before the restaurant industry is not going to recover quickly uh it's going to take a couple of years before we get back to where we'd like to be so buyers we all have to take that into account and in a situation in cold water shrimp as we're going to talk about with over supply that the food service sector is depressed is not going to help us the other thing that's an issue here is u.s personal income which is now falling over the in the spring the spike in personal income due to government support really helped expand retail sales but currently the employment situation has not improved for many and you can see that the personal income in total dollars is falling so the beginning of the recovery boosted optimism for seafood distributors but now that recovery is kind of stalled so there's a bigger risk that temporary loss of restaurant and food service may become permanent which means our market is smaller there's also changes in seafood buying patterns which have been helped by maintenance of income levels but that is now a risk as well so we're looking at uh expectations in the first and second quarter of 2021 where we're carrying a lot more risk than than we would have been otherwise the issue with shrimp in particular is that the shrimp market was weakening before the pandemic what we've seen is that after several years where the market kind of adjusted to lower output we have some increases in production especially in russia and norway and there was more production on the west coast this year as well more than expected and so that increase in production coupled with a a weakening market trend is what was dominating the market and that's continued during the pandemic so china being one of the first countries hit by the pandemic has sharply cut back its imports of frozen shell on cold water shrimp and when you cut back on the chinese purchasing that leaves more of this shrimp available to go into the twice frozen market and so you know when we talked about shrimp in the past the issue that was facing us is how much competition is there going to be from twice frozen product and in fact there's quite a lot and even plants in canada now because of lack of raw material have turned to producing twice frozen shrimp as well so there's more competition between single frozen and twice frozen shrimp the uk is buying similar volumes as in the past but at lower lower prices and we've discussed the pandemic impact one of the things i want to show you is that the frozen seafood items have tended to be much more stable in their pricing during the pandemic than the fresh seafood items because the fresh seafood is much more dependent on going out to a food service sector and obviously it can't be stored and so it has an effect on the price and so you can see with halibut for example this is fresh halibut and it's trading well below the levels that it has been in the past three years whereas cold water shrimp we're seeing a downward trend but we're not seeing something that's lower and then where we were let's say in 2017 and so forth uh cod loin again we don't see we see a little bit of a drop but not a big drop and this has to do with the fact that there's more stability in the frozen food sector so these are some current pricing erner berry has begun a european price report uh which is very helpful because globe fish has stopped carrying their quotations on on cold water shrimp so this is now a uk quote on uh 150 100 150 per kilo so it's larger than our 250 350. but you can see how the price has been dropping substantially once the pandemic hit and new season shrimp was being offered into the uk and it's come up slightly and in denmark we've seen a gradual erosion the price uh in in danish kroner the export volumes uh to the uk and to denmark i mean uh and to the us have actually recovered quite nicely compared to where they were last year so we're not seeing a situation where where the volume of cold water shrimp going to these major markets has been cut in half what we're seeing instead is that this is the uk what's in green here so the quantity of their imports from canada uh have been very similar in the third quarter of 2019 and third quarter of 2020. same thing with the us and denmark has increased its imports of of canadian cold water and these are in i guess in kilos here but you can also see that for each of these countries the the customs value in most cases is lower than where it was although the uk seems seems very similar but that's important to remember the the volumes are moving through the market what's being affected is not the lack of supply what's being affected is the is the price the u.s prices have actually come down uh probably more than than uk and that has largely been because of uh west coast fishing has been uh for for west coast pandalus shrimp which goes a lot into the u.s uh cooked and peeled cold water market uh was much more robust and then was forecast earlier this year this year this is just a chart of iceland double frozen shipments to uk showing also that decline in price which is now kind of stabilized and it's so basically a continuation of a trend and the fact that our food service sector is suffering means it's hard to change direction so the issue that we have is that our pandalus production is sort of stabilizing after several years of growth and the market is now kind of um reached more of a balance and and any more production coming into the market tends to uh push down push down the pricing you can see this is an estimate of on global pandalus production how after several years of increase is now steady but during those years of increase the price began to erode and that that hasn't uh that hasn't changed so um my i don't have canadian actual landing figures um but we we know that uh there was just a minor uptick in the in the gulf and newfoundland was about the same and offshore shrimp will increase slightly what i don't have the figures for is the uh extent to which newfoundland producers bought newfoundland offshore shrimp to sell into the cooked and peeled market we know that happened i just don't know the volume the oregon shrimp we were projecting 29 million pounds at the beginning of the season in march the actual landings were 43 million pounds so they had a a better year than projected and that also has contributed to that weakening of prices in the u.s this is just a a graph of west coast landings in value showing the increase in 2020 and the corresponding decrease in the in the in the vessel price um the real driver i think in the shrimp market is the increase in norway and the barren sea um nor the volumes uh i for norway i think are projected to be around 20 000 tons you can see that the the price has been relatively stable but this price is 13 lower because uh the russian production that is being exported is going to these norwegian plants and it's lowering uh the overall price there what's happened in the aberrant c is a big increase in the biomass estimate and consequently the 2020 allowable catches so they raised as you can see in this graph here the allowable catches have raised uh by over 20 000 tons in just one year and they're quite high back up to where they were in the early 2000s so we've seen a strong recovery in terms of what the biomass is and the question is how much infrastructure is available that's actually been able to harvest the shrimp this year the norwegian landings i think have been not that much higher the russian landings have in fact been higher because there's been more investment on the russian side now what's happening in the barren sea is that we're seeing a tendency towards colder temperatures and we've also been seeing lower cod biomass in the barren sea in the last few years and we know that there's a well-known correlation between shrimp and cod based on uh water temperature and so i think that what's happening in my opinion is that this current um colder period is helping to increase the biomass of shrimp in the barren sea and that's what's driving these increases in global production so uh most of that is going to be head on most of that does not appear to be going into the cooked and peeled market so what we've seen is more uh increase in in shell on shrimp and potentially twice frozen volume compared to our inshore single frozen uh cooked and peeled uh and most of that barren sea increase is going to be head on frozen uh because that goes to the domestic russian market as well that's a very popular product in russia and a cooked whole frozen shrimp is is going into their domestic market um so we tried to estimate where we stood in in terms of um uh cooked and peeled production and what we're estimating estimating is uh this is the volume of sort of cooked and peeled that we were projecting in the in the different the different markets and it's relatively stable compared to 2019 but the offshore landings are much higher and so you can see that here is the cooked and peeled production estimate on the right hand side here and the left hand side is offshore production particular canadian offshore so you can see that the offshore production has been maintained whereas the crooked field has less so if you add the barrett c frozen at sea production to this you see there's a global increase in the offshore production if we look at u.s production of jordanian shrimp this is a last year's slide for 2020 it's going to increase substantially uh you know we we saw that we have a total landings of 43 million pounds so instead of like um uh around uh four or five thousand three or four thousand tons of um uh actual cooked and peel production we're more likely to get six or seven thousand tons um this again is the estimates of cooked and peeled from norway and greenland and iceland it's mostly stable and so we see a stable volume of cooked and peeled against a weakening market so i don't think russia impacts the cooked and peeled market that much except for the increase that goes through norway um in the in the section on snow crab somebody asked about russian increase in capacity on shrimp we have evidence that they increase the number of vessels fishing from 13 to 25 so that's in 2000 so that's a very big increase in their capacity and you can look at the size range of the russian landings which tends to be smaller but this is not the dominant feature in the cooked and peeled market it is going to be significant significant in the uh offshore shell on shrimp market about exit that risk a few weeks ago there was some concern that canadian exports to the uk might be disrupted if there was no trade agreement in place and and the uk leaves uh the eu without a deal that the risk of disruption is lessened because canada and the uk have put in a a deal which will preserve zero tariffs on shrimp so there shouldn't be any worries about trade issues impacting uk demand for canadian shrimp but that doesn't mean there's not market worries or there's not worries about the economy of the uk going into next year um the u.s market i'll just go through this very quickly uh cold water prawns represent about 10 of the cooked market you can see that's come up in 2019 it may come up again in 2020. the big driver in in the u.s shrimp market is that peeled and cooked shrimp are driving the market growth and also the larger sizes are driving the market growth so we see an increase in warm water large sizes we see an increase in peel shrimp we see an increase in cooked shrimp cooked and field and some of that is washing over to help cold water shrimp as well look at sources of cold water prawns in the u.s some of it's domestic most of its imports in 2020 we're going to be looking at a higher level of domestic production and probably a similar level of imports the positive things for cold water shrimp in the u.s market is the cooked shrimp trend is is taking more of a market share and cooked shrimp is also a retail product there is a premium for wild shrimp there's no question about that and there's a premium for domestic shrimp in the u.s warm water ship market in other words gulf domestic warm water shrimp that's a premium in the u.s so cold water shrimp can benefit from the favorable attributes of wild domestic and cooked the the negative things are smaller sized shrimps always have lower values and the market is demanding larger sizes the market is on the west coast in the us as most people know there is more twice frozen product in canada the important thing to look at here is the u.s shrimp consumption has gone up overall and it's included it's it's also increased in 2020. uh imports are much higher than they were uh in in the u.s if we look at europe and china we see that increases in in china this is uh argentina this is argentinian shrimp have increased in china they've been flat in the eu so that uh and in the in cold water prawns they've increased in china and been somewhat declining in the eu and declining uh globally so china is becoming a a more important overall market if i look at retail this is the story shrimp has had a fantastic run at retail we see increase in sales volumes we see increase in percent of households buying we see it all in uh shrimp price per pound which continued into 2020 and so what that meant is that the retailers have had a a really good run on frozen shrimp uh so they're a little bit tired so we saw saw that in contrast to uh crab where where retail ads increased quite a bit retail ads on shrimp were actually down um in in the in the current year with kovid imports especially of warm water cooked shrimp are way up now that's a retail product and canada exports the u.s are down about 20 percent compared to last year year year to date um so what's happened is that after three years of a very favorable price and supply situation for supermarkets for for warm water shrimp they find that promotions are less effective so there's little um incentive for them to go in and start promoting a cold water shrimp or warm water shrimp because consumers are kind of tired of the promotions and they see the price coming down and they don't don't respond as much now in the u.s the issue is how does that affect cold water because if the retailers are tired of warm water will that affect cold water we don't see in the u.s much relationship between the pricing of cold water shrimp and warm water shrimp and you can see here that as the price of warm waters declines price of cold water has gone up so the cold water is responding to its own market and the current price decline in the u.s i think it's more related to the volume available than the fact that it has to compete with warm water shrimp that's not the same in the uk in the uk there's much more much more even correlation in usage of cold water and warm water so that when warm water prices go down it tends to increase consumption of warm water shrimp and it tends to compete and flow over into competitive price pressure at the retail level uh with with cold water shrimp and so you can see here that cold water imports the uk have been falling they're stable in 2020 but warm water imports have been rising so that's another area that's putting pressure on on on shrimp prices in the uk so i think we're out of time uh we have a little maybe you could take a minute or two for questions i'm going to stop sharing the screen i know some people may have joined us on the oyster presentation but to that in just a couple of minutes yeah maybe we have time for one or two questions but for all the other questions um maybe easier to send it to my colleague nicole andlin i'll just write our email in the chat now we did have a question from um for you um he was just asking uh for a definition if cook and peel is a synonym of double frozen or is it single frozen i believe it can be both but i'll let you answer that yeah oh yeah no it's both you have both cooked and peeled double frozen and cooked and peeled single frozen perfect thank you yeah um so if anybody else has a quick question we can cover now you can write it into the chat if not you can email it to nicole which will uh then email it to john question if you do not have any other questions we'll go to the presentation for oysters in a moment