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[Music] welcome home park investors real estate investors entrepreneurs and others who just see value beyond the surface welcome to the mobile home park desktop where I bring you all the latest news and analysis about the mobile home park world from my desktop today's main topic will be on some communities who just released their cue ones earnings report for 2020 we'll get a lot of insights into how they did last year as well as how they have been handling the kovat 19 response just as a disclaimer to start off this is not any type of investment advice I do not own any shares of Sun I'm not planning to buy any shares of Sun I'm just a numbers and data geek and whenever I find information that's publicly available with especially with an operator like Sun who owns a hundred and forty thousand lots across the u.s. then I want to dive in and I want to see what they're presenting and see what sort of insights that I might be seeing and also share that with you also when it comes to feedback and comments on content please give me your feedback if you I know a lot of what I've been covering has been news and analysis and kind of optical issues but if you're interested in learning more about like how to invest in mobile home parks how to find deals how to operate parks all sorts of stuff like that let me know give me some feedback in the comments I am thinking that I might even start a separate series focused just on investing in mobile home park so without any further ado let's dive in and find out what we can learn from some communities q ones earnings report before we get started I just wanted to go over what is a REIT has some communities is a publicly traded Creek it is the largest publicly traded REIT that's focused on manufactured housing communities or mobile home parks they have a mix of mobile home park communities as well as RV communities as well as mobile home and RV communities so let's talk about what a REIT is is a real estate investment trust that's what the REI T stands for and it's an entity that receives revenue through owning or financing income producing properties so a REIT is a company that owns a lot of other properties almost think of as collects different properties and they can also finance properties and do some loans and they can also own other shares and stocks and other REITs and other properties as well so REITs can be private organizations here or they can also be publicly traded on a stock exchange so some communities is actually publicly traded but there are private REITs as well and because some communities is publicly traded that means you can go onto the stock exchange and you could fire up your Ameritrade account or your Wells Fargo account or whatever account you use to purchase stocks if you wanted to and you could buy shares now that I am done now that Professor Dan is done with that explanation of REITs but let's dive in to some communities which is the focus of this week's show and let's take a look let's start by understanding better what their portfolio actually consists of so you can see here in blue these are all areas where son owns properties largest portfolio is out here in Florida forty four thousand six hundred and ninety five you can see they also have a sizable number of properties in Texas in California what's interesting to note is where they don't have properties so they don't have properties in North Dakota South Dakota Nebraska Kansas Oklahoma Arkansas Arkansas and Mississippi as well as New Mexico Wyoming Idaho and Washington so if you were so there I guess there's two ways to look at it one why don't they own their what do they know that maybe other people don't know or on the other hand another way to look at it is maybe there's some more opportunity here because you're not competing with Big Boy in some communities you also have your Vermont and Rhode Island where they don't own communities in case you're wondering every time I glance to the left it is because I am seeing a map so now let's take a look here at the composition so they own a hundred and forty-one thousand sites sixty-three percent so 266 are mobile home communities 122 RV communities 34 that are blended mobile home and RV communities 44 percent are age restricted so age restricted means that you have to be over a certain age in order to live in those communities so these are geared or targeted toward retirees or older people and then you have 56% which are all AIDS communities so all aged obviously that means families anyone can live there so 71% of their revenue comes from manufactured housing 12% from the RVs these are annual RVs and 17% from transient RVs so there's a big difference between annual RVs and transient RVs transient RVs are the people that drive in stay for a while and then drive out whereas annual RVs are the ones that stay there year-round or at least they have year-round contracts one of the things that Sun it does and you'll see later on in their statistics is they try to get transient RVs to convert to annual RVs and that's a better business model because then you have a more consistent rim of income and that it's also something where if you're turning around and trying to get a loan from a bank later on they are going to give you much more credit for your annual RV sites as opposed to your transient RV sites as they see that transient RV site that that stream of income as being less reliable you'll also see as when we talk about the q1 earnings call report that they're transient RV business is the one that took a huge hit since the annual RV business since you're on an annual contract collecting rents from them functions a lot similarly to just the people who are living in the manufactured housing community so you can see there's a big disparity between the strings of incomes from the annual RVs and the transient RVs all right here's some more information this is something interesting you could see here Sun is right in that average between two and four percent that's what they typically have in terms of and increases Sun is an example of very stabilized owner/operator 95.5% really high occupancy right there and 70% are at 98% plus you can see here there's 21400 transient RV sites so this is a big chunk of RV sites and when we look into their q1 numbers we'll be able to dive deeper and to see how co vid 19 has affected these transient transient RV sites transient again means people who are coming in seasonally that means they don't live there at the park year-round or they don't have year-round clearly contracts as well and you can see here as we talked about earlier they try to convert on average about 1100 so 1100 of these transient RV sites they're converting to yearly annual sites on average in a year as someone who spent a lot of time on the acquisition side I'm always interested to see how acquisitions are for other groups as you can see here 815 million dollars worth of communities of forty six communities ten thousand three hundred sites that son added in 2019 that's almost a billion dollars of folks that's a lot more than I did in four years so I mean obviously these are the biggest guys they have the most money to spend and they are definitely growing 10300 sites do the math on that the calculation that ends up being about seventy about eighty thousand dollars per side that's what they're spending per site so if you have hundred spaced site eighty thousand times one hundred that's about on average what they're spending on purchase price so that's a that's a metric that we often look for when we're starting to under ideals to get just a sort of a baseline of how much we should be paying or a mobile home park typically you see prices range somewhere between 25 to 35 thousand in nicer markets it might go from 35 to 50 thousand definitely if someone's paying eighty thousand dollars they're buying nicest parts out there and that is what some communities focus is on they focused on what's known as institutional quality assets so these are assets that have you can see here they have a community house they have lots of amenities they have sidewalks they have off street parking lights I mean it's just all the bells and whistles when it comes to a community and so it's kind of interesting let's keep that in mind but we're gonna go down a little bit later we're gonna talk about the actual housing costs all right so now this is one of the ads that gets all the mobile home park people who are looking to invest very very excited and if you're in the apartments this is one of those that's it gets she very very envious take a look at this yearly a tenure of residence let's take a look at the second stat first fourteen years so that means on average residents in some communities are staying 14 years so if you can imagine that compare that to your average apartment vacancy what one two years people are gone that is quite an amazing stat and that's you know really when I started looking at mobile home parks as in potential investment vehicle that's one of the stats I looked at again we're talking about some communities we're talking about top aligned highest quality institutional quality assets just from an anecdotal Dory's I - when I'll come across when I'm looking at ills and I'll talk to the owners and I'll ask for rent rolls so I can find out like how long residents have been there and sometimes I get responses like wow you know it's been so long they've been here so long I don't even have the you know when they originally moved in it just seemed like they'd been here forever some people are like hey these guys have these residents have been here longer than I've owned the park so that's also spawn set you often here keep in mind that a resident staying for 14 years more than likely that person is actually owning the homes so if you're buying mobile home parks and you're actually renting out the units if you're in the rental business then your numbers are probably gonna skew differently than that from here unless you can find a way to actually sell off the homes so again this is what some communities is doing this is not a proxy for what you should be doing you can't just automatically assume your residents are gonna be there for 14 years if you're gonna underwrite a deal but at least it shows and prospect of why people are very excited about vesting in this asset class so you can see here it says here that move outs are less than 1% so only less than 1% of people are moving out but when you dive down deeper what they're actually saying is that less than 1% of the homes aren't being moved out of the communities so resident move outs home leaves communities what's that mean what that means is that when a mobile home is placed in a community that home is more than likely going to stay in that community forever but what happens when the resident wants to move out well see the 62.3% the residents will sell their home to someone else who wants to live in that community so as you can see less than 1% of the homes are actually being physically moved and carried out and taken away and as a mobile home park owner operator that is probably the worst thing for you you do not want those homes to be taken out because it costs a lot of money and time and expense to refill the Lots once they're taken out and as you can see here less than 1% that is a pretty good number so all right let's go on let's continue another thing that is really exciting for mobile home park investors is looking at the average annual Noi growth and comparing that to other industries these are some of the metrics that as mobile home park investors when we see things like this and we see such a huge advantage here in a mobile home parks compared to apartments and and other you know the rest of the REIT industry mobile home parks are exceeding them in terms of annual growth rate same community Noi growth those are some really good positive signs for the industry and things that get us as mobile home park investors is pretty excited so this is really neat the way that Sun has organized their presentation because right as soon as they show you how much growth there has been in Noi since 1998 they go through the very next slide and they kind of show you what why that might be because of the advantages of a mobile home parks in terms of pricing so you can see here for twelve hundred and fifty square foot mobile home in some communities on average the residents gonna pay nine and $97 per month whereas other rental options in the same markets are gonna cost about a thousand for a thousand square foot you're gonna be paying about $1600 per month so mobile homes can definitely that's one of the advantages that we're bringing to the mark the most affordable option for for many people within an area and so one final note I want to offer on this as well and this is something that I believe Charles Becker PhD researcher from Duke University's think he's the only PhD researchers actually doing a lot of research on mobile home park communities and I might be getting this statistic wrong because I've heard it secondhand I haven't actually read the source material in the 1950s if you just follow the rate of inflation for the 1950s then the average lot rent in the US should be around $500 instead the average lot rent in the US is around $300 and so that also might be one of the reasons to explain why why there has been so much nly growth here is there's a lot of that sort of subsidized subsidizing that has been happening from past community owners and as new community owners if you come in and you're improving the communities making it nicer there is some room for you to push those lot rents up because they are probably under market for the most part and then just one more statistic on manufactured homes versus single-family homes 78504 a brand new manufactured home as opposed to the average single-family home which is now two hundred ninety seven thousand seven hundred and forty seven dollars very you know to two years worth 2x medium income versus 7 X medium income oh this is a great statistic just keep in mind when you're looking at mobile home parks to buy the options are for the resident that you're attracting to your community residents in your community aren't even thinking about a single-family home and instead what they're really what they're really comparing the value to is to the apartments and that's actually other thing that charles becker had come up with in some of his research was that typically speaking single the homes are not the competitive housing option for people who are living in mobile home parks a competitive competitive housing option is apartments so when you're when you're thinking of it from that standpoint what really matters a lot is this other statistic here what how much is rent for the apartments versus how much can someone rent either manufactured home for you or buy a mobile home in your community what's their all-in monthly rent going to be compared to say if they wanted to go to apartments I'm just going to go over these last two stats quickly but according to what son is saying here when you compare total returns of son community versus the S&P 500 which is in green versus MSCI us wreaths which as far as I understand is like a collection of rates come it's like a ETF of REITs you can kind of see how manufactured housing or in this particular case son communities has outperformed all of them and one last one here again some communities obviously at the very top here manufactured housing in general self storage and then the rest just in terms of indexed Noi growth over time alrighty guys one last thing I wanted to go over today and this these are my notes from some communities q1 2020 learnings call just taking a look at some of the things that jumped out to me number one the NOI reduction so they actually had a cue to Noi reduction guidance of between 15 to 18 million dollars what that broke down to is about 10 million of that was because of the loss of revenue and income from the transient RV business the entire month of April there was no transient RV business because lock downs they people couldn't go to their RV so they essentially have lost one month of income so going forward assign communities was on the earnings call we're sayng that they expect things to return to normal in May we'll see whether or not that's happened I guess in the next earnings report or if you live near by a son or RV community and see whether or not they're open there's 15 to 18 million dollar loss 10 million is due to the RV loss and five-date is due to diminished home sales and some other income associated with the loss of income from Arby's so they said their rent forbearance program they said only 2.9 percent of mobile home residents have actually asked for the way their forbearance program will work won't have to pay rent for the month and then I think starting in June or July then they'll have 12 months of payment except for that to that so how that thing is working but I guess the good news for them is only 3% less than 3% have actually applied for some sort of forbearance which brings us to this number which is awesome their portfolio they have collected 98% collections as of April 22nd for the annual lease sites we talked about this earlier you can see if the you have an RV site where people have annual contracts look at that 92% of them have paid so that's great and then obviously the the transient they had close to zero because their their parks were closed so 26 thousand annual sites 22,000 are transient sites total portfolio occupancy about 97% and some interesting things to see here so they don't really have any decrease in occupancy projected so let's take a look at some of the other numbers here so home sales so home sales they said 763 in q1 2020 which is down from 798 so it's about a 4.4 percent difference of that new home sales volume is also slightly down rental home conversions that's actually up so it's a rental home conversion is when you have a renter and you offer them some sort of incentive maybe they're on a rent credit program and they've been able to save off enough money to actually buy their home or similar home that they're in or you know for whatever reason they decide that they want to become a homeowner so you convert the renter to a homeowner versions are up and then that's an interesting that's an interesting stat there maybe maybe some of them decided to buy their home out so they can have a lower monthly rental payment maybe because of some sort of job uncertainty or where they're just thinking long term they want to just reduce the amount of rent they'll have going forward maybe another thing that maybe the subsidy checks came in and people were able to a four-door put together a down payment to actually buy their homes one other thing that showed a positive note is web application so although applications overall and I'm assuming this is for people to live in their one of their communities is down by 13% people applying on the web has jumped up 111 percent so if you are a community operator or you're about to acquire one understanding that the web and having a very strong web presence it seems like through code 19 everyone's getting used to working from home everyone's getting used to videoconferencing and maybe people are becoming a little bit more used to doing things even more on the web and so you know they can they're showing here that 111 percent increase in their web applications if you don't have some sort of web-based way for your tenants to apply for housing maybe that's a project that you can work on going forward it may help you capture capture more leads so overall web applications used to be even 19% in 2019 and now it's at 45% the last thing I want to talk about here acquisitions opportunities so didn't we getting into really any any specifics other to say other than to say that yes they still had a pipeline and they were still actively looking at things but a couple of things that they noted on the call properties that had not previously been for sale potentially coming to market so this is one of the theories that we have well with everything that's going on with Coppa 19 is that we might have more tired landlords people who decide that they just don't want to be in this industry or in maybe any type of housing industry or maybe people who are closer to retirement saying hey look I don't want to go through this again now is the right time to retire and his son is speculating that things that were not potential had not previously been for sale maybe coming up for sale and they'd actually been approached by a few people who had started those conversations properties that had been for sale but not priced appropriately so again at this I think ties into the tired owner type argument maybe owners who are just tired and deciding hey you know that that price that ridiculous price I wanted before I'm willing to come off it and get this deal done and just to stay on this for a moment if you are looking to buy your first first mobile home park keep in mind that what the seller is offering is not necessarily the market price for that remember buyers are the ones that are setting the market prices and if no one wants to buy that mobile home park then at that price and that's not the market price and so I know a lot of people feel like the sellers offer or what the seller is listing at is kind of a starting point and maybe it is for the seller but it shouldn't necessarily dictate what you think the value of it is if you learn how to underwrite these things properly stick with your underwriting you know there's many ways to look at this if you want to get a deal done you're gonna have to offer fair prices at the same time what the seller is listing it for if not necessarily the market or fair price and last thing here properties out were potential acquisitions but son had it move forward on them this is another thing that they're seeing acquisitions that they had thought about kick the tires on now they may be thinking about moving forward on them all right guys I hope you've enjoyed this week's episode of the mobile home park desktop please do me a favor if you watch till the end hit that subscribe button that's down below or it's over here or somewhere around here and that way you could be kept up to date to the latest content that is released as I mentioned before I am giving some serious weight in consideration to producing content that's not only analysis and updates on the news but actual how-to content I think I'll probably separate that out for for people who are interested in that give me feedback if you want to know how to underwrite properties if you want to know how to manage properties if you're more interested in the how-to you like Hey look Dan all this industry stuff is interesting and great but I want to know more about how I can actually get into it then let me know give me the feedback the only way I know what kind of content to produce is to hear from from people who are watching so go ahead and do that so thanks again for watching I appreciate all the comments I get I appreciate all of you who have subscribed and I can't wait to produce next week's episode so once again this has been the mobile home park and I'll see you next week thank you [Music]

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