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[Music] right I'm gonna get to started well you're in the seminar that's title contracts insurance and risk management oh my what can you do to protect yourself your farm and your pigs from disasters and obviously in particular like potentially a foreign animal disease control relationships as a grower or as a pig owner or those that seeking to get into the industry so we've gathered some pretty good experts together my hat's off to thy work producers in the produce trade committee to to kind of direct this topic I think it's really pertinent in in the industry setting we sit out here in Iowa and moving forward with sometimes you never know what the next disaster is right whether it's a physical issue whether it's a political consideration that affects our markets or or whether it's just even internal family situations that arise and several years ago in the 90s we had a disease called the mystery swine disease right it was a mystery we had no idea what it was and I always keep thinking what's the next mystery disease it took us we had several names for pers before we identified what it was but what could be our next challenge and hopefully it's not Lord willing a disease and and God willing it's not foreign animal disease it comes onto the shores of the US but that potential is there and and in it's a reality so hopefully hopefully we avoid that coming to the US but let's let's take what precautions we can to be prepared so in light of that our experts today we've gathered I'm colon Johnson with Iowa State University Extension I'll be chairing and moderating the session well we have an attorney we have an insurance representative and then we have somebody that works more in risk management with with the field of economics so I think it's a good background for you and so I'm gonna allow each of our presenters to kind of give about 10 minutes or so of their involvement with the industry on this issue and their expertise and we'll have a half of our session for Q&A time so in our first presenter Matt Berger is a chair of Gillison & hunter LLP agricultural law group matt recognizes the importance of farmers agricultural business community banks and other small businesses play in supporting and sustaining rural community and Matt's had a wide diversity of issues that he's worked through in representing not just pork producers and agriculture and he's but other business entities on a wide array of issues and the role of government's involvement in regulatory things acquisition finance and so forth so I'll let him give its background with this company and and go from there and then I'll just allow Marty to step up following that Marty pivot is an independent insurance agent for Lamar's and native Alomar's in here is employed with mark crop insurance where he's a producing agent and the director of sales for mark crop insurance Marty specialization is Agri business insurance farm insurance and crop insurance and in his desire and passion for the industries also been recently exhibited by the fact that he has developing the ASF implementation of an insurance policy coverage that we'll talk about here shortly then christopher putin's chris is a PhD student in economics at iowa state university chris is a native of Carroll County livestock background with the cattle feeding over there that his families run so but he's a research assistant for dr. Lee Schulz so getting really deep into livestock economics on behalf of Iowa State University so he's going to talk about some of the risk management finance potential that sits out there and how to protect yourself a little bit so our first presenter though I'll bring up Matt Berger thank you again my name is Matt Berger I'm an attorney with Gissel son and hunter and as : mentioned I represent a number of farmers particularly pork producers and cover the gamut basically except for estate planning I really don't do that I have one of my partners do that I'm based out of southern Minnesota but practice both in Minnesota and in Iowa and work with producers in both states and other states on all of their legal needs both transactional contracts regulatory and one necessary and fighting in court in preparing this presentation and thinking about the topic I start from a premise that in my experience working with farmers every farm and every farmer is different so nobody can stand up here and give you a one-size-fits-all disaster plan that you can take home and stick on the Shelf and say here's my plan and I don't need to think about that anymore something happens I have that sit in there and everything will be fine instead what I've put together and what what I've thought I've thought about and encourage each of you to think about is taking the steps to go through this exercise in advance to think about your particular farm your particular operation everything that goes into that so that when something happens and you're in that stressful environment you've thought about it you have your information together and connect I've represented a number of farmers with a going through a variety of disasters everything from fires and roof collapses due to weather disease outbreaks activist involvement and anything else that can come up and I've seen a very distinct difference in how those have gone for producers of those who have taken the time ahead of time to think about these things and those who have not put in that time in advance and it's in my experience very much worth the time so as you go through this the steps that I recommend and I'm going to touch on some of these and then some of the other presenters will fill in as well but there's five basic things you need to go through one is identifying what the risks are and then there's a series of things you need to review to determine how those things will be affected by the risks that you've identified that's your contracts your ongoing business relationships your regulatory requirements or your relationship with government agencies your insurance coverage are the big three categories once you've done all that you should take that information you've thought about and put together a written plan so that you have it ready and most importantly this isn't something you can think about one time it's something that periodically you need to bring backup think about and a review as your operations has changed as the broader world has changed so it's up to date when you need it so beginning with the first step identifying your potential risks there's two types of things that are two pots that I would put these into one is internal threats there are things that can go wrong in your operation I have nothing to do with anybody on the outside or anything on the outside you can have equipment failed I've seen several cases in hog burns where the the temperature controls or the curtain controls fail and if not addressed can cause a pig loss you can have manure leaks from your manure storage and have to deal with that or one extreme example I had a client actually had their own grain elevator and had a dust explosion thankfully that nobody was hurt but it was a very intense and very scary incident that occurred in the middle of winter when the temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees below zero and they had to respond to all this but identifying those parts of your farm that are at risk what could happen that would cause a disruption to your operation you need to go through and think about what the parts of your farm are that could fail and identify what those risks are the second is external threats these are things that can happen to you or to your farm and I think many of these are pretty straightforward and things that we all generally know about if we take the time to think fire weather and disease being the big ones but the key again is thinking about all of those things that can go wrong it's like month at the partner that does a estate planning tells me nobody likes to think about their death but you need to farmers don't like to think about these disasters but you need to once you've identified what those risks are that the next step of that is thinking about what why what will it mean if that happens what will I need to address how will my operation be disrupted what do I need to think about I don't know if many people followed or participated in the recent foreign animal diseases that the federal and several of the state governments did with African swine fever I participated up in Minnesota with that and I know one of the things that was one of the biggest topics there was what are we going to do with all these dead animals how are we going to dispose of them and that comes up with fires and many other things as well you need to think about that ahead of time and have a plan for that you may have surviving pigs with either a disease outbreak or a fire or barn collapse I'm going through a case right now with a hog producer who had a roof collapse at a sell facility and that the pigs were all fine but their barn was unusable and so they had to figure out what am I going to do with all these animals to make sure that they're properly cared for while I'd sort out the issue with the building if you lose pigs how are you going to get new ones if there's a feed issue how are you gonna get that if you have your own green elevator and that explodes and how are you gonna clean up if there's debris or damage to buildings so you want to think about okay if I have a fire these are all the things that can happen if I have a roof collapse these are all the things that can happen these are the issues I'm gonna have to deal with and have that bullet point list ahead of time once you've identified those risks and how the risks may disrupt your operation you need to think about preserving the business and moving forward your farming business and one critical aspect of that is figuring out what obligations you have going on I tell a lot of producers that when you're going through a disaster and your business has been disrupted you know you need to think about the long-term viability of your your business and in that situation cash can be king you need to think about your cash flow what are my ongoing obligations going to be and what income am I going to have going forward in that and make sure that those things work out and if there's a deficit figure out what your savings or equity or financing options are to get through that period of time so on the liability side this is why you review your contracts because you need to understand if I have a disruption and I lose my barn what commitments have I already made that I'm gonna have to pay regardless of what happens to my farm so that can include inputs if you have feed contracts that you've entered into to get feed on an ongoing basis you need to know what those obligations are on the flip side if you're selling pigs you need to know what your contractual commitments are to sell pigs do you have a contract that says you just sell the pigs you have when they're ready or do you have a contract that says you will deliver a certain number of pig on a regular schedule you need to understand what your commitments are there you need to understand for each of those contracts how long do they last how long am i obligated to do this is it a month-to-month contract that you can get out of or is it a three to five year contract that will have ongoing commitments those differences can be key in figuring out the cash flow to get through the lean times tied to that is if you have a long term contract can you get out of it some contracts have provisions that will say this contract lasts for five years but can be ended early if certain things happen so you need to look at those contracts and say if I need to get out of this early how do I do that is it you have to give some written notice in advance or is it something that will automatically happen if certain conditions happen every contract is different but you need to review your contracts to understand that you need to understand in your contracts how do they allocate risk between the two parties one common thing particularly with that I see in contracts for the sale of pigs would be if you have a situation that's disrupting your pig flow not completely ending all of your pigs but saying you may have half the number of pigs available are you required to split those between different purchasers or can you decide where those go and which contracts you can get out of you need to be aware of that and that ties into then that the last point how do all of your different contracts relate to each other you need to make sure that the when you're in a can situation like this that your obligations to one contract partner won't put you in violation with the obligations to a different contract partner one particular type of clause to pay attention to is a force majeure clause and that's one of those fancy Latin words that they teach you in law school that it could be explained a lot more clearly but for some reason they call them these but basically what these provisions are are provisions that are common and ongoing contracts that say if there is some event occurs that is completely unexpected an act of God something that nobody's controlling nobody's at fault for it just happens those events can excuse performance so you need to pay attention to those provisions if they're in your contract because the extent to which your performance will be excused or the extent to which your contract partners performance may be excused varies from contract to contract and really depends on the words actually used in that contract and I emphasize this now because many clients that I work with when they're negotiating contracts for their farm they're not thinking about disasters or the bad things that can happen when they're negotiating you're thinking about the term you're thinking about the price you're thinking about the direct business aspects of those contracts and a lot of times I see these provisions are part of the boilerplate language that one side or the others lawyer puts in there and nobody really pays attention to them until the contract is signed and some disaster happens and everyone is going back after the fact and says well what does this mean and that's not the way to protect yourself so when you're negotiating contracts you want to be thinking about these and paying attention in particular to these contract terms to make sure that you're protected or at least you know how much you are protected and what your risks are again there are some common force majeure events that are covered but this really depends again on the language of the contract I can't emphasize that enough the contract will list the events that would be covered so you want to review that list and see how many of these are on there I've identified the most common ones for the hog producers I'd say the key ones to think about are fires and explosions weather events disease and the government actions or government regulations those are the ones that I see coming up most often impossibility I mention this even without a force majeure clause there is a defense at law that can apply if performance becomes impossible I'm mentioning this briefly because I'll say if you're at the point of having to resort to this defense in a court case you're already in trouble this isn't something you can prepare ahead of time and this is kind of last-ditch if nothing else works defense that you can try you don't want to be relying on this once you've gone through the contracts insurance is going to be a key thing we have Marty who's going to talk about that I want to briefly skip ahead in how I would normally present this and touch on the regulatory reporting because this is something that I've seen firsthand nobody thinks about ahead of time but there are federal laws on the books that require if hazardous substances are released regardless of how or why they're released reports are required to be made to the federal government they have a call center out and I believe it's Maryland that required to call but also to state and local emergency response officials and just to kind of emphasize how this can play out I represented a client who supplied Ag inputs and one night a couple of uys decided that they would come to his facility with some jerry-rigged fire extinguisher canisters and tried to steal some anhydrous ammonia so that they could go out and make some methamphetamine well this went about as you would expect it to go and the guy shows up the next morning and thankfully didn't see any bodies but he saw these canisters laying on the ground and the tanks of anhydrous ammonia sitting there empty and this guy did what in my opinion everybody exercising common sense would do he called the local sheriff and said somebody tried to steal this from me and it's been released and the sheriff came out with the hazmat gear and they contained the scene and did everything properly but what this guy didn't do is think you know what there's been a release of anhydrous ammonia to hell with the local sheriff excuse the language I need to call the federal government out in Maryland that that's what I need to do immediately well the EPA came came in and said you delayed for hours in calling us and notifying us of this release and they imposed a $50,000 penalty on him because he was four hours late in calling the federal government even though nothing would have changed with the response so that's why I emphasize this is it's ridiculous and offends common sense of most people who are in business but it's a risk that you need to be aware of and it's something that if you don't know about and think about ahead of time you're going to miss and it can have a major consequence after the fact so when you have your written plan you need to have that if there's bene release of something that may be a hazardous substance have the list of phone numbers there and have somebody designated you know this person's taking the lead on the response this person is going to be making those calls also review your permits and insurance policies to make sure you're reporting on those but these are things that again when you're in the heat of the moment nobody's going to be thinking about but that's why you need to plan ahead of time and be prepared with that I'll turn it over to Marty on the insurance piece good morning everyone first off I'd like to say it's nice to see so many young faces here it's great to see the youth involved in the industry and also I'd like to commend everyone for coming in being brave to sit through a meeting with an attorney and then in an insurance guy so this will be riveting for you guys but as : it said my name is Marty Pipit I work with Mart crop insurance we're in northwest Iowa we deal exclusively with the farm community we specialize in farm insurance in crop insurance and as we'll discuss here in a little bit foreign animal diseases as well so insurance is a very broad topic with a lot of complexities and the most profound thing that I can take or have you guys take away from today is that you need to talk to your agent and I hope that your agent you have a good relationship that you're comfortable and talking through the details a lot of what Matt discussed here was being proactive in your risk management strategies some of those risk management strategy strategies for you guys are things that you can do on the farm and some of those things are involving contracts and then of course we'll get into the insurance piece so with insurance being as broad as it is we're gonna take and narrow that down and just talk about some swine specific type of coverages as I said before and I really want to emphasize this talk to your agent about the policy that you have and the coverages that it provides the coverages that we're going to talk about will vary from company in a company with the exact same you know main language the fine print can vary from company to company so a few very important swine specific coverages would one would be care custody control so if you're a custom feeder this is an endorsement you're gonna want to add to your farm policy that will provide you coverage in the suffocation type instance that you may be negligent in the death of those hogs your integrator is gonna be insuring those hogs in the event of a tornado or a fire and nothing that was a result of your negligence but if you have a mishap this is what would respond to that one thing you're gonna want to make sure of is when you're looking at your policy don't be confused with an endorsement that might be on there that says custom feeding custom feeding is a line-item charge 50 bucks $75 and that is just to take into account that you've got more folks on the farm you've got you know your vets there your feed delivery you've got more people on there so there's a larger exposure for the company that is not providing you the care custody control coverage and there's uh there's been several cases and precedent throughout the years where agents were maybe not on the same page with that or the producer themselves so next thing that we always look to implement into our risk management strategy for our swine producers is a loss of farm income and that's yardage replacement so in the event that your barn has a partial loss or a total loss this is what would respond to give you that yardage income you'll want to be watchful for that again from company to company there's limitations there's time limitations so we commonly see a six-month timeframe and that typically from what we see is is an adequate amount of time and a partial loss to get you up and going so but colin touched about cash is king in the event of a loss and you know what are we gonna do well this is you're one of your very first lines of defense as a custom grower for a more sophisticated operation and more moving parts and we'll get into business income business interruption type coverages so that can provide you your ongoing payroll your utilities different things of that nature your fixed expenses to get you through that loss with the sophistication of today's farm operations and with all the involvement from the tax world and the law world inevitably you're going to end up with several different corporations make sure that you guys have those listed on your policy you know so I'll have mine my named insured for my policy would be Marty Pipit but if I have a barn and it's under Marty Pipit barn LLC that I want to make sure that I've got that listed and that's gonna respond in two fashions one for the insurable interest of your property but also for the insurable interest in a liability situation really important for you guys to have that listed properly we get into pollution pollution has a lot of different moving parts make sure you sit down and talk to your to your agent about the exposures that you have you know if you're getting into for hire so if you're doing any custom manure application that's gonna change everything on your policy make sure that you've got that put together properly and if you get into you got tankers and you're doing any hauling that way any commercial auto or business auto policy is going to have a commercial exclusion and your pollution exclusion and you're gonna want to put some endorsements on there to give you that coverage in the event of an accident that would inevitably be over a body of water or near a body of water which would inevitably be affected so foreign pollution if you guys have any honey honey wagons or any tankers running up and down the road farm to farm same same topic there most farm policies are going to come with some coverage make sure it's adequate that varies from company to company as well we'll get into a very specific type of coverage for asf so again as I touched on before our agency we work exclusively with with growers with farmers and through this last year and ASF presenting itself as such a crippling in potential devastation for for our business and then the guys that we work with we took it upon ourselves to go out and beat the streets and figure out a way to get this covered for guys so with ASF insurance it's important to note that your your common farm policy by and large disease and sickness that's excluded so don't don't necessarily rely on your current foreign policy to provide you anything in that situation again talk to your agent make sure that company the company that can vary but by and large that's what you will experience so so for you as growers how do you manage that risk there's things that you can control and there's things that you can't control so biosecurity can you ramp up your efforts in that I'm sure you guys have been in different breakout sessions and you've realized the importance of that and that certainly come to light you know your secure pork supply plans you know getting something in order for that those are great things to be doing again those are things you can control but what you can't control maybe is what the neighbor up the road is doing and we'll talk about with some of the USDA zones and how ASF will impact you could impact you it becomes very evident very quick of what you can't control can very quickly adversely affect you so another way to manage that risk is what we're going to talk about right now would be taking out an insurance policy on that so if you're a custom grower the policy that we have is what you would apply for is coverage for the income replacement so your yardage replacement you can purchase coverage for disinfection and for the disposal and the removal I'm not sure if anybody has participated or listened in on any of the ASF exercises or any of the other classes ASF is very very situational in in regards to how things are going to respond the initial conversations with the USDA was that the USDA is going to be participating in the cost and more than likely picking up the portion of the loss which would be the disinfection cleaning and removal the disposal but again that's a fluid conversation that seems change as this thing goes on so the policy that we're going to talk about for ASF it's a 12-month policy so if you were to apply for that coverage it's an annual policy and then it has a 12-month indemnity period so if you were 11 months through your policy if you took that out on January 1st of 2020 and at the end of November of 2020 there was an outbreak and you had the policy in place then you would have 11 months of an indemnity period there is a two-week moratorium or a waiting period at the beginning of the policy and that's to police for any of those folks that are sitting on the sidelines and say now wait till it gets real so if you were to take the coverage and and within the first two weeks you were affected you there would be no return premium but there would also be no loss that would be paid paid to you so for the custom growers again just your yardage replacement that business income piece that we talked about earlier that's what this is for ASF if you own hogs we can put coverage in place on this and it would be for the fixed and ongoing expenses you know your your typical payroll taxes insurance utilities on the mortality side of things in the event of an outbreak there's an act that is uh that's out there it's called the Animal Health Protection Act and how that reads is that in an ASF outbreak the USDA would pay for 50% of the market value of those hogs well the X Factor of that would be where as the market at what is the value of your of your hogs and in the event of an outbreak if the Secretary of Agriculture were to declare an extraordinary emergency circumstance then they would pay a hundred percent of the value of the hog but again you know like when we work with integrators and they're talking about reap oppan and the value of those hogs you know we can hedge that bet we can say well I think it's worth X and the government might pay Y so I'm gonna take out the balance of coverage on the mortality side again this is a 12-month policy two-week moratorium at the beginning of that how does the the policy what are the mechanics of it how does it work coverage triggers upon the USDA or an equivalent government body declaring a SF at your premise so that would be your operation being declared as designated or infected premise it also triggers is if you are a suspect premise and we'll go and I'll show you here in just a moment the zones and how the USDA will identify that so you're gonna be Ground Zero or in essence about a two mile circle around that would be the euthanization zone and then there's approximately a four mile area outside of that which would be the quarantine zone so if you were in you know Ground Zero if you were in that 2 mile the quarantine area the four mile then this would provide coverage if you were a contact premise so if the sow unit that provides your flow if that was hit with a SF and they're no longer capable of providing you the flow to your to your barn then the contact premise that side of it would also respond for for coverage so if there's a lack of supply again if we can identify the the flow so if we can say hey my finisher my nursery is is always getting hogs from this and this out unit then we can attach that piece of the coverage if you're unable to you know some of the systems out there they're not sure exactly where their flow is coming from then we omit that side of the of the coverage in the exercises if any of you guys have listened in on that in the event of an outbreak there's going to be a movement standstill or a movement restriction order so state to state I believe now as it's been decided there'll be a grace period where they're gonna give you a six eight twelve hours for anything that's on the road to get to to its place and after that everything is shut down so from feed to semen to hogs I mean anything swine related their Park in it and the reasoning for that is that they're going to do their trace back investigations they're gonna try to figure out the origin where it's at and so they can stamp it out and stop it so if your premise is placed within a movement restriction order that would be another triggering component of this policy for coverage this is that illustration as you can see the X would indicate what the USDA is calling the infected premise and then that that pink reddish area there that would be the euthanization zone so if you know we're talking about things that you can control and things that you can't control you can have the best of biosecurity on your place but what are the guys within two miles of you doing and then what are the guys in the next four miles doing because those six mile circles start dropping around the countryside it gobbles it up pretty quick so that's the infected premise then you've got the corn the quarantine is in the blue and as as it's been discussed at the functional exercises the movement restriction orders will allow permitting to go in and out after they've figured out when they're comfortable with what's going on and they feel like they've got a good handle on that so those those permits and that movement restriction if that does affect you though that's gonna be part of this this policy how do you get paid we talked about how the mechanics work and what it takes to trigger coverage you're gonna have that 12-month indemnity so if you're a 2,000 head barn and you're 40 bucks of space you got $80,000 and you are paid that pro rata on a monthly basis this policy is just gonna come in and pay you just as you were getting paid if you are on the fixed expenses side as you incur those losses and inevitably you're gonna have some expenses that are far greater at the inception of that loss or at the beginning of that loss this policy will pay for those losses up to the amount of what you apply for with that I think we'll we'll hand it over here and we'll let Chris go through things and then we'll ask some questions what not with that later like Cohen said my name is Chris I am a PhD student in economics at Iowa State University I work with Lee Schultz the livestock extension and common economist at Iowa State with that we're just gonna launch right into the topic of discussion today so I'm not gonna belabor labor the the situation with JSF the the whole session next door spent spent half the time talking about exactly what this slide is talking about basically ASF was reported for the first time in august 2018 in china since then it has gone everywhere you can see in this p cture here that it's all over the country and China is a big country and hog inventory of the country has dropped at least 40% by official estimates one of the presenters next door said there are sort of internal estimates are 60 to 70 percent so it's a big deal a natural question I like an economist my ask and you know many many of you in this room are probably asking too is how have US AG markets responded to this sort of event in the International supply and demand of pork and in particular I'm gonna talk about the lean hog futures market and the lean hog options market today so you can see here in this picture this is just a plot of the 2019 lean hog futures contract for for June 19 like I said I want to point out two particular features of this you can see there's that Oh about I don't know about a quarter of the way in there's a there's a big increase there that is in response to the announcement of the outbreak you can see it's a the low point there in the graph about seventy dollars is about August first when right around that time ASF was announced for the first time you can see in a period of about three weeks the futures contract the price rose 10 dollars 100 wait so that's a big response the other feature this graph I want to point out as you can see in spring of nineteen toward the right side of the graph their futures price goes from about 75 dollars a hundred weight to a hundred bucks in about a month about six weeks so that's a huge market response in the in the futures market and almost certainly a results of African swine fever ASF in China a related graph this is the implied volatility from the options market for the same contract during the same time period you can see spikes in the same two places I've pointed out before August of 18 when it was announced and then spring of 19 this is just a measure of variability in the market and you can see that prices have become way more volatile by this measure the volatility went from under you know 20% before the outbreak was announced to 45% in spring of 2019 so prices have become way more variable so what exactly was going on in spring of nineteen when when that you know the price went through the roof and so did the variability well on March 14th USDA announced that China purchased 24 thousand metric tons or 50 million pounds of pork from the US and the week ending March 7th despite despite steep tariffs so that that was a big market event also in the day later that was a Thursday Friday March 15th US Customs announced that it seized a million pounds of illegally imported food products from China that was initially reported as sort of like pork products later was revised to be food products but those two things are probably what's driving the sort of market response that we saw on those graphs so a question is what did these response is that we've seen tell us about the probability that ASF comes to the United States this is sort of like a 30,000 foot view I think it was Marty who said that ASF in the United States would be very situational it depends on a lot of different things what exactly the the outbreak would look like and what exactly the response by by stakeholders up and down the supply chain would look like so this is sort of an attempt to market our to calculate the market perceived probability of an outbreak that tries to free itself over those sorts of specificities and just gets a sort of an economist view of it so just some show you the data I've been working with real quickly this is just sort of a rolling year out lean hog futures contract each of these prices you see here is a futures price that is like corresponds with a contract that is roughly a year out from the nearby contract you can see regular-season ality right prices are lower in November and December or higher in the summer not not much unusual there but this is where things start to get interesting this is that same measure of variability I showed you before but now this is the sort of the rolling version of that of that variability you can see that prior to 2014 it was below or at 15% there's increases to about 20% for about three or four years there then all of a sudden in August of 18 there is this huge jump from under 20% to above 25% and then again in spring of 19 there is an increase from about 25% to above 45 so if these huge increases in variability okay so what do I do I take those two graphs that you've seen the data from those graphs and I simulate prices for every single day from November of 16 until I guess November of nineteen is how far I've gone so far and I calculate for each day what percentage of those prices fall below a certain price threshold so I have three price thresholds listed here the the blue line is the $50 a hundred weight price threshold you can see that there's some seasonality that comes in there there's a higher likelihood you see in in December that we hit $50 100 in the futures market then there is in June on the flip side there's a $30 100 weights of what proportion of simulated prices fall below $30 that's essentially zero all the way through almost indistinguishable from the from the horizontal x-axis in between is the orange line and that is the $40 hundredweight sort of threshold and I'm going to zoom in on that here quick so the perceived probability of an ASF outbreak or catastrophic disease outbreak or meaningful market event that causes prices to hit $40 however you want to however you want to couch it March first was about a percent two weeks later March 1519 so after those back-to-back announcements had jumped to nearly two and a half percent two weeks later the market predicted probability of that had gone up a four percent and then had moderated to about two and a half again by April 15th and I looked right before I the session started my most recent calculation is for November 22nd and on November 22nd a market perceived probability of an outbreak according to this measure was three point four percent so more than three times what we saw on March 1st and so like in summary the the model the ASF outbreak pop probability increased substantially in response to this news regarding SF outbreaks in China and this is a big deal in particular because you know all the discussions that happen next door the discussions we've had today have been you know if ASF happens how do you how do you dispose of the animals if ASF happens how do how does that impact the contracts that you that you have if a SF happens are you going to want to have an insurance policy and in place and those are all very important discussions and but like a natural question is so how likely is this event actually to take place and the answer is that that's way more likely than it was before by a 200% increase a just I want to give a brief sort of practical application or some implications of this research but first I want to qualify I am NOT a risk management expert we've started out you know getting to know each other saying that it's not what you know but who you know I know Lee Schulz and he is a risk management expert so he and I sat down and put together a little example here some cowboy math hopefully just kind of demonstrate what's going on so a question that we've gotten is what is the viability of using the options market to manage disease outbreak related risk in the United States and that you can see these I listed these same four dates here that we saw when we're looking at the probability of an outbreak you can see during that time of the June 19 lean hog futures contract the price went up more than 20 bucks listed next to that is the premium for a $10 you know 100 weight out of the money put option and you can see that the price for that 10 dot the premium for that $10 out of the money put option more than doubled in six weeks now what's kind of interesting about that is that during that time period you'd actually expect that put option to get cheaper but because of the increased variability in prices over over that period the premium actually more than doubled on the flip side if you were to maintain that six aim $66 100 weight put option that you know was ten dollars out of the money on March 1st the price for that sort of like catastrophic loss put option went from you know a buck a hundredweight there to 15 cents so you know the quiet and then I'm just gonna translate this into dollar a pig quick on March first the price for that put option was $2 a pig but by April 15 2019 that was 30 cents a pig so you know the question an answer to the question of what has happened to the viability of using put options to manage this type of risk has it gotten more expensive has it gotten more cheap has it gotten cheaper the answer is it depends if you're trying to protect $10 out of the hunt out of the money if that's what you're trying to do the the premiums have gone up substantially but if you're just trying to cover catastrophic Glaus in this particular instance the the premiums went down now granted this is this was a contract that expired you know two or three months after these particular dates there are all sorts of qualifications like I said this is cowboy math but there's just a very very simple demonstration of what has happened in risk management in the wake of ASF in China so thank you and I think now we'll start the Q&A so questions any any for any three of these or if you just got a broad question we'll try to direct it to them Dave go ahead however the pig owner will talk about paying the price the market value of the animal you so the government might cover half of it and then the insurance would cover the other half unlike China we are not a net importer of pork we live on exports and if we were to get this disease our exports would be shut off so all that 25% of or more of pork that we export would have to stay in the country therefore shoving our prices very low in my opinion and so what would you figure as the price would you say okay now the price is 10 cents a hundredweight because we have ASF so you're getting your 10 cents or would you say oh well the day before it broke prices were 75 cents and you're getting that 75 cents so I mean not what the value of the pig at the time is going to be greatly diminished if we have an outbreak because we can't sell anything outside the United States you've a good question so within that the discussions that we've had with growers with integrators with folks that are looking at that portion of the coverage it's a conversation we just talk it through how much do you want to rely on that potential indentity from the government and then what opportunity may I have if cash is king and I'm able to reap op when the market may be as high I mean how important how many dollars you want to put in play coverage wise to reap op and you know I don't know that that's a one-size-fit-all you know type of answer but it's a conversation that we would go through and just look at the moving parts of it and figure that through so I don't know there's a great black and white answer to that I will mention Marty you've got a booth upstairs folks want to visit with you further on particular insurance questions so the one thing the others will hang around afterwards as well so another question surely there's concerns obviously it's I'm glad you're here because I know in visiting extension we work a lot in the area biosecurity in this last year you know and just just upping your game and if we can get ahead of these disaster preparedness whether it's biosecurity from a disease standpoint or whether it's just EMS planning I know some of that can keep particularly an owner or anybody that's got barn payments awake at night and so I hope that you can take some of the the experiences that they've shared from you and do some action on it get some EMS plans together communicate with the rest of your team your insurance carrier your pig suppliers lenders need to be involved in this conversation as well very dramatically about this thing so but you know beyond prayer which is very much needed in this situation there are some some steps you can take and so any of these guys are able to help you troubleshooting that area extension we're available as well more questions I actually yeah I'll add all my own things here conversations that I've had that you kind of just led me to remember a thing or two here so one thing I very much recommend to you guys is have the discussion with your integrator for those of you that are contract growers hey what is going to happen how will this play out will my yardage be in place what's my contract read be attentive to that force majeure if you look at the components and the ability for that to come into play that certainly is it it definitely seems to vary you know from from integrator to integrator on intent you know with that but definitely have that conversation you know and that can be part of the decision-making process and then another thing too on the on the care custody control side of things make sure I know this is a common mishap if you will is that if your if your custom feeding and you're in the operations day-to-day you're touring your barns that coverage is pretty black-and-white in regards to that but now if you've got folks that are working for you if you've got employees then changes the dynamic so make sure you sit down with your agent and you just have that real open dialogue of this is my operation this is what I've got going on out at the farm so that in the event of something going south that this thing responds the coverage that you have responds in a fashion that that you need it to yeah you bring up a good point Marty it it's amazing to think about all the people I mean the livelihoods that touch a farm right the generate income from it and the turnover especially if you think about a breed to finish and the sow activities and so forth and even just you know the custom finishing all that's involved with the financing and the inputs there there's a lot of jobs a lot of people are relying on this so it's not just impacting you as the owner of pigs and the revenue there or the revenue from a barn ownership standpoint there's a lot to be prepared for and in just business continuity right and they'll in the light of a disaster and and even animal well-being that's involved with this situation say an external situation that comes in and it creates a disaster you mentioned a tornado or a fire condition and communicating with your local EMS your local farm your own farm team what to do and in respond to these situations and then obviously yes the family incomes that are derived from it too so it's great to see the young faces in here and it's great to know that you're looking forward to investing and being involved with the Iowa pork industry know that it's a good hands but there's a lot of stake and a lot to be involved with so I'm glad you're here gaining a little bit of knowledge in this topic anything else for Romania questions yes in the back there there's a quick speaker box coming to you here format the force majeure if we know ASF is out there now and things aren't being done steps aren't taken to protect contractors by an integrator and they get it is it is force majeure still a gonna be applicable and then for Marty does this insurance cover acts of terrorism so first on the Force Majeure the answer is it depends on the language of the contract and how that is defined as the force majeure event so one of the key factors for it is whether it's preventable now with a foreign animal disease or ik I'm going to assume that nobody's intentionally introducing it so it's not going to be preventable it's going to be that kind of an event foreseeability is one factor if the contract is vague as far as the force majeure event so if you had a general term act of God that becomes whether something falls within that definition depends on how foreseeable it was when the contract was drafted the more foreseeable it was the more a court is likely to say it should have been identified so that that varies a little bit but most of the the clauses don't just say act of God they'll say in the event of a fire weather event etc so you want to look at that list some contracts will say a disease outbreak some won't many of them will ay a in the event of a government order which would be particularly applicable to a foreign animal disease all break because you need to look beyond the outbreak itself to what we expect the government response to be in response to it so if there was a situation where a government ordered the South farm that was the supplier of a contract to be depopulated and that prevented performance that could still be covered so there's no black and white answer other than it depends on what the actual contract says for those events Mauri that answer either all right your question in regards to terrorism and specifically in this example we'd be talking about bioterrorism that is a standard exclusion and it is on this policy as well we've had long in-depth conversations with a company with carrier with the underwriters you know what if that bioterrorism is introduced in one side of the country and then I'm not affected until a year later is it stemmed back to that and that there's so much again ASF that's situational I'll go with the fact that the policy has that standard exclusion but I don't believe that they're gonna stem it back to you know one person coming over with a package of tainted virus and sausage yeah so yeah it's good another question in the front kind of out of curiosity format how did the fine that the elevator or the anhydrous leak was notified about how did that come out since they did start locally and just because there was not anything actively leaking out at the time the way you described it it really was not a large pollution event release not a noted one was there so there was so it was the entire tank of anhydrous was released into the air was the conclusion because it wasn't in the fire extinguisher and it wasn't anywhere else so there was a release into the air of the anhydrous ammonia that was above the reported reporting threshold for the release I can't get into specifics but there was a penalty from the EPA that was negotiated and paid no human injuries no thankfully there was no human [Applause]

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How to digitally sign a PDF file with an iPhone or iPad How to digitally sign a PDF file with an iPhone or iPad

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How do you make this information that was not in a digital format a computer-readable document for the user? " "So the question is not only how can you get to an individual from an individual, but how can you get to an individual with a group of individuals. How do you get from one location and say let's go to this location and say let's go to that location. How do you get from, you know, some of the more traditional forms of information that you are used to seeing in a document or other forms. The ability to do that in a digital medium has been a huge challenge. I think we've done it, but there's some work that we have to do on the security side of that. And of course, there's the question of how do you protect it from being read by people that you're not intending to be able to actually read it? " When asked to describe what he means by a "user-centric" approach to security, Bensley responds that "you're still in a situation where you are still talking about a lot of the security that is done by individuals, but we've done a very good job of making it a user-centric process. You're not going to be able to create a document or something on your own that you can give to an individual. You can't just open and copy over and then give it to somebody else. You still have to do the work of the document being created in the first place and the work of the document being delivered in a secure manner."

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How to prepare an electronic signature?

If you are using a web-based signature, you can learn these skills on your own. If you are using a desktop or mobile application, you can download templates to follow, including how to sign a document. If you are using electronic forms, you can learn on your own. Electronic signatures are not as secure You might wonder why digital signatures are not as secure as paper signatures. For starters, electronic signatures are not as secure. The problem begins in processing a signature. Most digital signature applications are designed to work in the cloud, meaning all of your signatures are stored in some central location. It may make sense that the government wants to prevent someone from stealing your data using an electronic signature. Unfortunately, this means that, when a signature expires, it does not get deleted completely. It just gets destroyed. A new electronic signature is generated, and all the information about your signature is saved. This means that any time another signature is generated on the same date, those two signatures will be compared. A common way to do this is to use what is called a hash function. Hash functions are very useful because many people use them regularly, including software engineers. But they also come with a big downside. Hash functions work by taking a long string (typically, a list of digits) and then multiplying it by themselves, which produces a smaller string. This is called a hash value, and it's easy to calculate. For examp...