Industry sign banking iowa word now
uh so we'll move on to our next topic uh talking a little bit about the iowa's dairy industry the economic impact of that so our colleague from uh northeast iowa here jen bentley who has been working with us in extension as a dairy field specialist for about 10 years previous to that she's with the northeast iowa dairy foundation and so both an iowa dairy survey that we had taken out and also the study that was done on the iowa dairy industry so jen take her away hello and welcome to this presentation of iowa's dairy industry past present and future my name is jen bentley and i'm the northeast iowa dairy field specialist for iowa state university extension and outreach in this 30 minute video we will take a quick tour of where iowa's dairy industry has been what it looks like today and what producers are telling us it may look like in the future we recently completed a comprehensive review of iowa's dairy industry that allowed us to update the economic impact data numbers and we'll take a sneak peek into some of the preliminary data we received back from iowa's dairy producers in 2020 as you can see by my collage of pictures which are all photos captured in iowa we have a diverse landscape of operations from grazing to robots and everything in between but i think what you'll find interesting today is they're all important to iowa's economy so let's first take a step back in time back to 1925 as you look at this map each cow represents 1 000 dairy cows and you can see every county in iowa had cows totaling 689 000 cows back then everyone milked cows along with having hogs crop crops and beef cows back then produced about 4 000 pounds of milk per cow per year totaling 2.27.5 million pounds of milk then we fast forward 72 years later and the dairy landscape looks quite a bit different as we start to see farms become more specialized within specific livestock or cropping areas and remember on this map that one cow still represents 1 000 cows as you begin to see our central counties milking less than 1 000 cows as the farms shift to east or west sides of the state cow numbers declined to 220 000 however these cows were producing four times more milk averaging 16 100 pounds annually totaling 35 and a half million pounds so much of this can be attributed to learning more about cows nutrition improved forage quality and harvesting and storage practices and facilities that make our cows more comfortable as we see an industry change from thai stalls to freestalls use of sand bedding etc we take another snapshot forward into 2015 and again see cows headed east or west this map shows an increased trend to the cows moving to northwest iowa if any of you eat blue bunny ice cream you know that that's in plymouth county so much of that milk being produced is in those counties are being made into ice cream cow numbers went down slightly in this map from 220 000 down to 207 thousand but production per cow continues to increase at 22 444 pounds per cow with an overall total milk production of 4.6 billion pounds of milk so we can start to see we use the word more sustainability here as we look from 1925 to 2015 iowa's dairy cows became more efficient producing five times more milk with about 30 percent less cows this leads us to our first poll question i'll give you a few moments here to look at this chart and take in the in the information take note when you look at this graph the data actually reads from right to left so the oldest dates 1924 going to the left is the most current to 2018. so my poll question is from 1924 to present one was the peak or the highest number of cows and if you answered 1934 you would be correct with 100 with 1.5 million cows a record high according to the nasdaq data iowa still had over 1 million cows in the early 1960s but look at the graph from 1956 to 1975 what was happening more dairies were converting over to grain farming numbers dropped below 200 000 in the late 1990s but we've rebounded the 220 000 today and a lot more milk per cow and the total overall total so the question is here are we at peak milk production or will we still continue to climb i'd venture to guess we're still on our way up to more milk per cow as we see current industry trends the last few graphs showed cow numbers in the state now let's look at actual dairy dairy farms again reading this graph from left from excuse me from right to left indicating in 2003 iowa had nearly 2 500 farms to the most current nas data in 2018 with just over a thousand farms so nas doesn't have complete farm data for every year but i do want to point out just for a point of reference that in 1984 there were approximately six thousand dairy herds in the state of iowa so we'll look at more current numbers here in an upcoming slide i really like this map from the iowa department of agriculture and land stewardship dairy bureau they update this map about every six months and this is the most recent licensed dairy map in from january 2021 so similar to our earlier maps of the state this shows the most most of the farms again located in our eastern and northwest parts of the state totaling 1104 farms which includes 195 dairy goats and one dairy sheep farm but if we take out the goats and the sheep we currently iowa currently has 907 dairy cow farms down about 124 farms from the last updated map that we had like this this decline of dairy farms was reflected around the country as licensed dairy farms declined by 2700 farms to a new total of 37 468 total farms in the united states so wisconsin the state with the most dairy farm saw a six and a half percent drop along with pennsylvania michigan california experiencing similar declines the severe declines in dairy farm operations were caused primarily by the steady decline in milk prices many dairy farmers experienced four years of losses and the revised dairy margin coverage just couldn't help them resurrect their operations however those farms who were able to weather the drop in milk prices are expected to gain steadily in the next five year period economic recovery farm consolidation and automation and a steadily increasing demand for dairy products both nationally and internationally is expected to contribute to farm profitability this next slide is what you'll find in the comprehensive review of iowa's dairy industry publication you might ask well these numbers look different from the previous slides i just mentioned however this number reflects 2017 iowa ag census data numbers and includes anyone who may have just one or two milking cows and not necessarily selling milk to a licensed cooperative so as you can see on this map it shows 1592 herds are represented here with uh herd sizes 0 to 19 making up about 29 of the herds and of those 29 percent only 25 of those are actually milking less are actually milking less than 10 cows so they really represent a really small portion of the of the milk sales less than one percent of milk sales so these herds really use the milk production for more on farm usage than they do for selling of milk so if we take that milk or take those herds out of the equation and just look at total licensed dairies this 2017 iowa egg census actually shows 1131 herds so we take those 463 herds that milk less than 20 cows we get a better representation of our herd size throughout the state and it parallels a little bit better with the department of ag numbers so as you're looking here 21 percent were milking less than 50 cows and 34 between 50 99 cows totaling about 50 percent of our herds milking less than 100 cows so milk production per cow has gone from 4 000 pounds per cow like i mentioned back in 1924 to nearly 25 000 pounds per cow here in 2020 the steep and steady climb from 1956 to present includes enhanced genetics accounting for about 50 50 to 60 percent of those gains and enhanced management of the other 50 so less cows and herds but more likely more milk per cow so while iowa has been increasing total milk the past two decades peak milk production has increased occurring in 1943 at 6.9 billion pounds so remember there were still over a million dairies dairy cows up to that point up until the late 1950s and so combined with higher milk production meant over 6 million pounds of milk being produced iowa's dairies are complemented by an equally diverse group of processors and they're located strategically throughout the state you know based on those maps that we saw in the eastern half or the northwestern half of the states which strengthens iowa's ability to deal with seasonal peaks and valleys and milk production currently there are 22 processors in iowa with some manufacturing more than one product so we have 12 processors of fluid milk two dry plant dry milk plants 17 cheese processors and seven ice cream processors so this diversified production processing and support system really helps create stable and attractive regional price trends and it provides opportunities for individual dairy farms to grow and meet those changes in national demand we know that milk is a staple food and it's recommended that americans consume three cups per day of milk and dairy products in 2018 americans consume 646 pounds of milk and dairy products so that's representing more than 211 billion pounds of raw milk so to the total u.s dairy farms you know they produce 217 billion pounds of raw milk and so iowa's contribution to that is just a little over two and a half percent producing 5.6 billion pounds so although u.s fluid milk sales have decreased by about 13 percent the mix of some of these products the total is changing we're seeing reflection in increased consumption of whole milk and flavored milk and a little decrease in more of the skim buttermilk sales so previously we looked at this chart from the iowa ag census 2017 as a percentage of farms by herd size now we're looking at percent of milk by herd size keeping in mind the average herd size in iowa is right around 200 cows the herds with cows that range between 20 and 49 cows accounted for about three percent of the total milk supply and then we have herds over 200 cows that are accounting for nearly 70 percent of that milk supply we do have a few herds over that 500 000 or excuse me 5 000 cow level and they're accounting for a little over seven percent of that total iowa milk supply so where is the milk going then and now and what kind of products are we making the iowa nas numbers that i have here showcase 1977 to 1985 showing the decline and decreased butter production in iowa and this has continued as butter as is produced at larger more consolidated consolidated plants outside of iowa but in 1920 before a lot of that food milk was being purchased or consumed a lot of it was made into butter through the 1950 error era as we saw a lot of that production being moved over to cheese and so then cheese was starting to become more of the prevalent product being made we know that per capita use of butter has increased in the recent years increasing from about 4.7 pounds to 5.8 pounds per person from 1975 to 2018 and i just checked the most recent data and we're right at 2 or 6.2 pounds of butter consumption per person per per year and to note it takes about 21.2 pounds of milk to make one pound of butter if we look at cheese production in iowa in 1955 iowa produced 20 27 million pounds of cheese as that cheese started to really increase in demand and our contin and our shift to processed cheese was beginning iowa was producing about two to three times more milk than they were able to consume so a lot of that was being able to be transported to other states and other markets and the shift down in cheese production that you see here in 2003 to 2010 was really because of that reduced cow numbers but as cow numbers and milk production per cow increased in the last two decades so has that cheese production in iowa so we're right around 300 million pounds of cheese production and again to know it takes about 10 pounds of cheese or excuse me 10 pounds of milk to make one pound of cheese then we move into ice cream as i noted noted earlier with seven ice cream processors in the state ice cream production remains important to iowa's dairy processing taking 12 pounds of milk to make one gallon of ice cream ice cream totals reached an all-time high in 2005 when we saw wells blue bunny move into northwest iowa and they became a major player in iowa producing over 75 million gallons of ice cream and again to note it takes 12 pounds of milk to make one gallon of ice cream and finally yogurt another notable trend is yogurt in our industry as we saw increased consumption in the 2000s and then in early 2010s with the popularity of greek yogurt as a contributing factor since 2013 per capita yogurt use has decreased but it has remained substantial and it's higher than even in the 2000s so iowa is still producing a little over 20 million pounds of yogurt and again taking one pound of milk to make one pound of yogurt so iowa's farms through manufacturing dairy industries account for 5.56 billion dollars in total industrial output according to 2017 data and made 1.7 billion dollars in payments to value added of that value added 891 million dollars was in the form of labor income that supported over 15 000 jobs 15 587 jobs were formed because of the dairy industry so this infographic does a great job of explaining the value of each part of that industry the number of jobs created within each section to to get to that 5.56 billion dollar output so my last poll question here today uh given all the information the dollar values that i gave you according to the jobs the manufacturing that goes on i'd like for you to estimate what what one single dairy cow or what's the economic impact of one single dairy cow to the state of iowa and i'll launch the poll here and give you a couple choices so if you answered 25 495 dollars that would be the correct answer we have seen an increase in the economic impact of our dairy cow as the last economic study showed a dairy cow was at 23 445 dollars per cow so we are increasing that value of that dairy dairy cow by the number of jobs and industries that it produces if you want to read the full comprehensive review of the iowa's dairy industry i've included the link here it's also on our iowa state extension and outreach dairy team website so you can find it there there you'll find a complete detail and breakdown of all the industry parts that go into that now that we know where the industry has been where we are right now what does this mean for the future of iowa's dairy industry that's what we asked our 900 iowa dairy producers this fall in a mailed survey so they received a survey asking them about management practices trend lines and where they're going in the future the last industry survey was conducted in 2012 and we'd like to continue these surveys every five years to develop a trend line for the dairy industry so while we've just received the data back from this stats department i can share a few tidbits out prior to releasing the full summary as i noted we tried to conduct these every five to seven years to build trend lines of iowa's dairy industry assess educational needs engage future plans of our dairy producers so we started these surveys back in 2000 uh the one in two thousand two thousand was more specific to northeast iowa and then in 2005 and 2012 they became more of a statewide survey so our topics range from farm characteristics labor management information sources dairy issues and many more questions so response rates have been tremendous to these surveys as we see a response rate between 38 and 48 percent the 2020 survey was mailed and also emailed this year to 897 licensed dairy farms this fall but several factors contribute to a lower than expected response to the survey including the global cova 19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 and a trade show that caused extensive property damage and crop loss for farmers across central and eastern iowa several weeks prior to the survey administration so giving us a response rate of 25 percent but nevertheless it has yielded a large volume of data that is used still useful today for our industry so just only receiving the data just last week the next few slides only just show a snippet of the information a
d i hope over the next few months we'll be able to provide a more extensive report detailing the results but for this presentation i pulled out some of the current impact conditions and what producers are thinking about in regards to their future plans so here we did ask producers um to rate the impact on these specific topics and what impact they have on their farm business on a level of one being no impact to five being a very great impact i've highlighted some of the areas that stood out as being great impact to farm business and you can see those include land prices commodity prices milk price volatility producer price differentials the dairy imports and exports and mill calling call costs all rose to the top cova 19 was also another area of very great impact to dairy farms and in another question that we asked 57 agree that kova 19 negative negatively impacted their operation in 2020 we are seeing more producers utilizing some sort of risk management tool with just over half of the respondents saying they use one or more of these tools so within those responses about 34 percent use the dairy revenue protection program nine percent use lgm eighteen percent use milk contracts and the highest using that dairy margin coverage protection at 86 percent of those producers who had responded so from the preliminary data i gathered there will be some updates these dairy farms in the next 15 years i always think it's nice that we ask that question as far as educational needs industry needs and what those producers are going to be expanding upon on their operations so 17 percent responded that they will be making some type of milking system update and i do want to note that 35 of those respondents are milking in thai stall barns and 16 and a half percent are milking in a herringbone so of those responses about half of them are considering some type of robotic milking system and the other third are looking more towards a conventional type parlor we don't see a lot of expansion happening with the herds that responded to our survey so about 76 percent do not plan to expand at least their herd size in the next 15 years but they are going to be banking some updates to their facilities so most of them or a quarter of them will be making updates to their calf and heifer facilities manure management transition and dry cows and updating their feed storage so what does the future of dairy farming look like in iowa it's important for iowa dairy industry to know what might the future of dairy farming look like based on the responses back to our survey 54 percent say they do not plan to discontinue however the other half are making some decisions about discontinuing milking but still continuing farming in the next five ten or even fifteen years however there's still strong support to say that family farms are essential to rural iowa and that a mix of small medium and large farms are important to iowa's local economies as we continue to summarize the 2020 iowa dairy industry industry survey we'll keep you informed of information as it becomes available but as i leave you today i'd like to share this last slide as it really drives home those values mentioned in my previous slide and the importance of the industry dairy industry to iowa i know that i gave you a lot of numbers and stats today but if you only remember one number i'd like you to remember the economic impact of one cow to iowa's dairy industry that one cow generates 25 495 dollars of economic impact so if you are a dairy farmer listening to this presentation you can multiply this by your herd size and you'll quickly see the value of your dairy farm to your local community and to the state this number can be used when you're talking to local community leaders and consumers to tell your story because it not only affects what happens on your operation but also affects what also affects what happens to schools grocery stores churches and local businesses on your main streets thank you for listening to today's presentation and at this time i take any questions that have come into the chat box jen while folks are putting questions into the chat box i'm going to ask you to to go over again how often uh we do these studies and the difference between the the comprehensive industry study and our producer study oh sure fred yeah so the the producer survey uh we started that in an extension like i said in 2000 and that was uh more of you know trying to get some evaluation and and benchmarks across the the dairy industry and we like to update that every five years just to kind of watch the trends you know fred as you are watching market trends what what happens with what dairy producers are doing affects that as well so kind of just keeping tabs on that as well as you know that economic portion of it um that is done i think the last one was done maybe larry will have to remind me 2010 i believe so that's not done quite as often as the dairy survey but just taking a look at the whole statewide economic impact of the dairy industry in iowa it's quite comprehensive to get all those numbers put together when you talk about processing the jobs you know everything that goes into those numbers so that's kind of the difference between those two now on one of the slides a slide from idols uh you'd mention that we have uh goat dairies in the state any handle on where they're located i know this is a predominantly cow crowd but uh they're part of our industry too yeah i would agree fred you know if we look at where they are located in the state we have quite a bit of dairy goat herds in the eastern half down in southeastern iowa more towards you know larry's territory down in that kelowna area as well eastern eastern half of the states but we do we do have quite a bit of dairy goats i think we're sitting number two or three in dairy goat production um so they're you know i don't know what the economic impact data would say for them but i'm sure there is a they're quite significant for our industry too okay we've got a question do other states do an economic analysis of their dairy industry and how does iowa compare yeah i believe wisconsin has an economic analysis as well and i think you guys might have to correct me at it sitting a little bit higher than i was are they closer to 28 larry you live in wisconsin you probably know better than me um i think the last one i saw was probably four or five years ago raised around 34 000 something per cow so it's pretty important yeah and i thought i saw a minute yeah go ahead it all depends on just how things are calculated and things like that but i think the bottom line for whatever state does it is that people just realize that the cows are economic development engines and it's pretty important piece and we can just um look at a lot of the counties in the state of iowa or wherever where we don't have a single cow in the counties anymore and just what's happened to their local economies we've got a question come in probably a larry question can you describe the economic impact of organic and grass-fed milk production in iowa in the last five years yeah so i think we took a look at what has gone so organic industry anywhere from four to six percent depending on the state that we're dealing with and so iowa wisconsin the midwest states and um the uh mideast states actually are quite high you know a lot of their organic and even their grass milk production so i think that five to ten or five to six percent is probably where we're going to hit there and so i don't think it's that much difference of what you can actually put into it yeah they might not buy quite as many uh inputs milk production per cow that was lower and so i don't think there's going to be a big difference on what that economic value per cow is going to be before that but yeah we're about five to six percent of the industry we've got a another question uh are we seeing the younger generation of dairy farmers being the driving force for the newer technologies and upgrades i would say they play a very significant part to that drive in technology as we look at you know the younger generation coming back to the dairy they're more you know they've kind of grown up more with that technology in school college just in their general day-to-day life so they are a little bit more in tune with um having that technology so i think i would agree i think there is some drive that those younger generation are kind of uh driving that technology as well uh whether that's the robots automatic calf eaters looking at animal health sensors it's just you know a different way of working and interpreting the data too okay larry uh this a question for you uh we've seen the number of people per 100 cows go from 10 to now eight what's happened in the industry for that to go down and again it could be uh part of how things were calculated but it's pretty consistent how iowa calculated it so it did go down from 10 i think the um the action was like 7.1 or something like that so when you take a look at some of the efficiencies and maybe who dropped out of the industry could have some of that effect or whatever but we definitely know that part of our own fault why you know we over milk production just because we're i think as producers the uh the dairy industry is getting better and better and better at doing things and so sometimes we're they're our own uh biggest enemy in trying to do that that as we get better more milk gets onto the market and actually reduces that and i think labor efficiency is one thing that's been really harped on i think in the last five to ten years and has had a big impact that um our farms are undoubtedly getting a lot more labor efficiency in addition to a lot of things like with lower death losses higher credit rates and things like that and so as a as we get better issues like that are going to happen thank you we've got a question that i'm just going to throw out there is there any processor expansion plans in the works or new processors being built in in iowa well fred i can start that answer and maybe you can fill in and larry too but i as far as what i can see i don't see a lot of new processors i think there's maybe um you know updating facilities processing plans of what we have here in iowa i also see on-farm processing increasing so i think that's a that's a real important aspect when you think about processing is we're seeing a lot more on farm versus maybe some of those bigger expansions but fred or larry i'd appreciate your comments too i would have said about the exact same thing is that the interest in the um some and then these are some pretty small processors as well that are doing some on-farm processing otherwise they're having a cheese maker make maybe make the cheese for them but they're doing storefronts and things like that and i think um you know it takes a lot of marketing and it takes a lot of work to to do that but i think uh consumers are actually kind of appreciating that because it's kind of a little request of some place they can go visit and try out some of their storefronts and stuff like that i don't know of any other big ones yeah i think as producers and industry we we have to understand that the market really doesn't respect state lines so when we see a new plant at norton lake we know milk from iowa minnesota south dakota north dakota are going to be supplying that plant or they see the plant in central michigan they know wisconsin indiana illinois milk are going to go to it so as we have seen expansion in the upper midwest on a few plants we know that it's benefited all over the upper midwest okay i'm not seeing any other questions coming in uh right sounds good thanks fred well we are towards the end of our day here so i want to appreciate all right i want to thank everybody for being on our webinar sticking through the whole day here i know it's a lot of information that we gave you but this webinar will be recorded and you'll be able to review it and also i did post the link to the the box where you can get the pdfs of all the information um if there's ever a point where you want to reach out to one of us you certainly can call us email us we're doing still doing farm visits so we still like to get out on farms as much as we can here during this time and i did notice that fred put in the evaluation link into the chat box there so we wouldn't we would appreciate if you could click on that and that'll take you to an online evaluation about today's program and just again i want to thank everybody for being on the call and for the great discussion and questions that everybody brought so with that i hope everybody has a good day and we'll see you next time
