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hello my name is scott dahl and i'm a master's program director and professor of digital marketing and revenue management at laroche and cron montana welcome to leading hospitality through turbulent times this session will be a presentation of about 35 minutes with 10 minutes for questions at the end we're taking questions and writing only and you can submit them as you go along using the chat function as always just a quick reminder that these sessions are being recorded and they'll be available on your school's moodle platform afterwards i am really looking forward to today's session steve hood from str global is here with us today steve is senior vp of research at str global the hospitality industry's leading provider of hotel performance benchmarking information for those of you that were lucky enough to catch steve's first presentation to kick off the series now you know what i mean when i say it's time for you to buckle your seatbelt and brace yourselves for an avalanche of analytics and insight into our industry today feel free to ask questions as we go along using the chat function and now please join me in welcoming our good friend steve hood well thank you scott uh very kind introduction i love the avalanche of analytics i'll i'll use that again if you'll let me so well uh great to be with everybody today and i'm gonna go ahead and start by sharing my screen and uh here we go not looking good and we're gonna jump right in as uh scott said uh a lot a lot of slides to share and and really some exciting news since we uh chatted last uh great uh you know some uh great signs of recovery uh beginning to blossom and that's what i'd love to share with you uh so this will be a industry update you know how's the hotel industry doing at this point in history it is obviously a very historic time we're going to look at performance we're going to look at some recovery scenarios and comparisons and then we're going to jump in and talk about the data so let's start at the very top we're going to start at the world now this is not a surprise hotels have closed around the world lots of closures and this uh world map shows you percentages as of the end of april uh just going into the beginning of may we see hotels in europe for example 76 closed and and i think it was actually a little higher than that in in march um asia at 38 percent now it was up in the 40s back in march uh north america at 17 it's that's about the the peak there but then look at some of the other areas of the world a lot of 70s and around the world so lots of hotels closed now obviously there have been you know the the closures have been related to restrictions some have been voluntary but most have been government uh imposed and at the end of april this was basically the countries that had uh restrictions upon hotels that were actually forcing hotels to close and if you look at europe almost all of europe is there in red now when we get to mid-may a lot of those uh restrictions have been lifted so just between april and may look at the uh you're beginning to see a lot of difference and and all of you know from living around the globe that those restrictions are beginning to lift and that's of course good news now back to end of april this is here we're looking at actual occupancy if you think about actual occupancy around the world is normally between 60 to 70 percent for major markets even up to 80 and 90 percent where are we at where it uh you know i mean you know in some cases we're almost at single digits there have been a lot of places around the world markets that have been in the single digits when it comes to actual occupancy but for uh regional averages europe of course near the bottom at 11 latin america northern africa feeling the pain as well now uh mainland china 36 we'll see in a minute that's up dramatically at by the end of april north america at 24. that's risen just a little bit other areas of the world as well now between april and may look at the difference just uh two and a half three weeks there north america rises 24 to 32 mainland china rises 36 to 44. europe slower behind the curve a little bit here only 11 to 12 percent but of course you know that's about to to open up i think and and we'll see next time i'm with you we'll see uh big changes in europe i predict this uh this sort of bubble chart is is uh a chart of all the markets that we track we track hundreds of markets and the color differences are by continent and you'll see the the gray bar in the middle is the average worldwide average and this goes from the beginning of january to where we're at right now mid-may and uh you can see on a worldwide average the world dropped in march uh between the beginning of march to the end of march total all those markets just took a dive and and many of them now are down in the 10 to 20 percent range that's uh that's where we're at now in terms of countries with occupancies we just put them in different buckets here look at the number of countries that are in the zero to five five to ten ten to twenty uh range lots of countries in these occupancy buckets these are actual occupancies uh scott asked me to uh just pick a couple sample markets around the world and this is from january to the end of april look at some of the countries beijing is the uh the red line that of course dove first so that went down in january hit bottom beginning of february just like china as a whole you'll see that graph in a minute beijing of all the markets in china beijing has been one of the slowest to recover i'll show you that but uh you'll notice it's still in the uh 20s uh and and we can talk about that i'll show you other markets as well paris uh the blue line that was the one that went down next uh beginning of march that was already into february was already heading down now you'll notice paris has been yeah there's no recovery when it comes to paris as as we see in all all major markets in europe you know no recovery at this point in time new york was uh the next to take the dive that's sort of the green line and and that went down that was just a week or two after paris and you know new york was one of the it was really the first city hit in the u.s severely and it went down to uh less than 20 percent now new york has recovered a lot and that don't but you gotta you know you gotta understand occupancy right now in markets and around the world is complicated because it's you know there are a lot of you know components of that occupancy there's uh you know in some places in the world governments have contracted for uh you know hospital overflow and other areas they're being used for quarantine in in a place like new york the hotels are being used uh significantly to house medical workers because the medical workers don't feel safe to go home and that's what we're seeing here in new york for example scott a quick question for you how are closures being accounted for in that obviously one half of that equation is available rooms and uh and so when a hotel is closed how do you guys deal with that yeah i can get your data and and you can look at it both ways you can look at um our data now based upon uh uh you know based upon current hotels as well as based upon you know the total uh population so we do factor that in we have to look at it both ways that's critical and uh i can so i can produce graphs for you if you're working on research or pro student projects or or need to get personalized information i can get that data for you both ways so uh that's important to uh take into consideration at this point that just as it's actually a question from someone in the group but as a follow-up um what about the do those new york numbers reflect the total you know the inventory that was there in january or do they reflect what's currently open and operating today they're reflecting what's currently operating yeah cool now the yellow line is rio de janeiro we know that that's been in the news more recently and that's had some significant issues and and so that'll be an important one to track for the future and uh would definitely want to keep our eyes on on all this stuff because it's all really relevant as far as the future beijing recovering paris recovering you know what happens in in rio and brazil so lots of things to keep our eyes on for sure uh now i showed you this slide last time i just wanted to show you where we're at at this point china is back to 43 u.s is back to 32. europe has eeked up almost to 12 that is data as of just last week so when the new numbers are in you know hopes would be that uh europe is uh going to be in the 12s and uh uh probably china and u.s uh in the 30s and 40s respective or uh yeah you know you know what i mean in the 30s and 40s so uh that's where we're at yeah let's look at china for a second and see what kind of trends and what kind of things we're learning about uh we break that into four different components the fall the quarantine the very slow recovery then uh uh step number three there we're beginning to see normal patterns going back and these are weekday weekend patterns and and i'll show you those in more detail but that's think of it that's basically weekend travel uh leisure travel they tend to travel on the weekends and rather than business travel and it tends to be closer to home drive to destinations or or easy to get to type destinations now in the future where we're you know we're watching for the corporate business returning weekday and group business uh we're beginning to see uh some interesting holiday patterns that i'll share with you as well one of the good signs in china of course is the fact that hotels have reopened and when we were in february we were hearing from a lot of these hotels that they would never reopen and that has not been the case very high reopening rates one of the other interesting patterns is uh the city center versus the suburbs look at some of these uh differences from a premium point of view this is occupancy uh and look at the difference between for example beijing city center and beijing surrounding uh definitely uh the surrounding areas are seeing more business in most cases now shenzhen is an exception to that and i'm not exactly sure why we could talk to our china people if you want more information on what's going there and i think we're doing next week we do a big webinar and i'll tell you more where you can catch up with that a big webinar on china and asia so difference between city center and the surrounding areas you're going to see differences in recovery mode you're going to see differences between big cities and smaller cities i'll show you lots of examples of that here for example is ningbo now that's uh uh in a you know big city in china and look at the premium between the city center and and the surrounding in in that big as we went into the beginning of march big differences there especially in that holiday time period one of the exciting things in areas of china we're beginning to see the come back of the luxury hotels now as we were going into uh recovery mode we saw in a lot of situations that the mid-scale and economy hotels were the ones that were uh were rebounding quickest but now you know we're beginning to see signs of the luxury hotels rebounding as well and that's uh you know that's positive news because that's the return of the transient traveler i have you know if i'm still employed and i have some money maybe i had uh travel plans but cancelled them and this might be more spontaneous but the luxury traveler you notice between uh in these time periods was definitely back during this holiday season here's premium not city center versus suburbs but here's weekday versus weekend of course weekend is going to be the the premium and in some of these uh markets a few of these are uh destination type markets you see big premiums between weekday and weekend and and we'll keep watching that and that that'll be an important thing to to track in the future uh uh china had two big holidays one in the beginning of april one in the beginning of may look at the bump uh these are some resort destinations in china for the first holiday in april look at the big bump there up to close to 70 percent occupancy at the uh at the lake and and uh a big jump there that's great news this particular lake uh during the labor day holiday that was the more recent holiday had occupancy at 95 now that would have been totally normal last year but it's exciting to see that that's actually been the case this year as well you know very good positive signs coming from china uh during that same time period here's sanya the big resort area and the whole region of hainan 70 80 occupancies in these areas now that's particularly exciting because these destinations aren't as easy to get to people had to and i'm not exactly positive how they got there i can try to find out more information but people you know had short flights trains you know it took you know a little more energy to get these destinations and yet they were filled so sanya here's occupancy and here's adr now notice this is uh this is a percent change occupancy and edr growth over time you'll notice that uh during that uh during the begin during may now sonia is actually above last year so that the adr is is in growth mode which uh nobody would have guessed but again this is a resort destination and that's the kind of thing that we're where we're gonna see these signs of recovery a couple a couple things from asia just to share with you and and this was sort of at the worst possible time back in march as a shared beginning of march we see you know markets in china were down in the negative 90s markets in asia began to see the pain we have a lot more data on asia i shared some of that with you last last webinar and be glad to share more with you but let's look at some since then we have some outliers in in this one we see singapore and philippines have definitely been outliers they have been utilized more uh for various types of occupancies in their countries but those have been a little different they've been performing better above in the 50 percent range down you know different than most of the countries in asia in this case we're looking at just asian countries uh that have been down the the 20 levels uh in beginning of may we had a big jump in vietnam now vietnam of course is a country have heavily reliant upon tourism and and we're seeing some uh things opening up and we're seeing demand returning to places like vietnam south korea the same thing leisure travel came back on came back strong uh in that during that holiday season in in may and and we're seeing positive signs as well so definitely uh business returning in asia now let's take a look at europe the first uh slide that i have here is closures of hotels in europe and you can see huge numbers here 90 percent in many of the areas 80s and 70s uh notice it's a little different russia has uh not had force closures but other areas a significant number of closures this was as of the end of april now that has opened up a little bit but here's actual occupancies at the end of april and look at the number of single digits and and you'll notice you would think maybe certain areas would be isolated but really not the case london has remained high at 23 a couple others in double digits but most of these in single digits here's the bubble chart again just showing markets in europe and uh you'll see you know you'll see that they dropped as we said before at that it's starting at the end of february that's when uh italy was beginning to uh see the first signs and then went down dramatically uh outliers here notice some of the outliers are smaller cities smaller locations again uh a sign of where people feel a little more confident to travel these are some of the major markets at the end of april and you can see big cities in europe have just been decimated by this at this point in time april things are basically closed down the purple bubbles are the uh occupancy percent change the blue bars are the actual occupancies almost you know the only one that's above 10 is london so we uh i shared some of these before this just shows a couple of the major countries here at the time where they were among the hardest hit h italy many of the markets in the negative 90s occupancy rev par percent change sorry this is occupancy percent change and uh here's uk here's rev4 percent change for uh the iberian peninsula spain and portugal hard hit here's the mediterranean all area look at that you know there's no areas of the mediterranean that aren't significantly impacted by this benelux as well central europe look at central europe almost everyone in the negative 90s and here's germany negative 80s generally in germany that was back in march here we compare germany austria and switzerland during the march time period you see and this is rev par levels um no surprise switzerland enjoys a a significantly higher rev par than the uh other cities this is uh oh but this is in local currency and uh you'll see the drop there mid-march and and very few in recovery mode all street austria significantly uh impacted uh more than others i can get you austria data if you want to have uh some data on the major markets uh going up to the beginning of may look at the actual occupancies here uh uh look at the five to ten percent occupancy geneva lucerne uh zurich all the uh all the major cities there and and uh very few above 10 here's switzerland drop in in march and february the blue lines are the occupancies this year compared to the gray lines occupancy last year this is daily data of course and then the adr you see a bit of a drop as well and and people are watching that carefully adr in uh switzerland is normally around 250. you know notice it's more in the 175 range right now and uh that it's of course the hotels responding to the drop in occupancy here's data during uh for switzerland in march and uh then comparing march and april uh march everything around 20 april um things dropping significantly we still see mid-scaling economy the the uh the highest occupancy there but of course that's being used by a lot of different uh reasons quarantine and and government use as well so that's no surprise as we look ahead now remember we um all the data i've shared up to this point has been backward looking historic performance but we also track business on the books and here's for example zurich and lucerne looking out in time this is occupancy on the books so these are reservations into the future uh the lucerne festival had a lot of uh business around it but it just uh got cancelled and uh there's another winter event uh in february presuming that will not be canceled but there's a lot of reservations for that already and uh here we're just comparing these two major cities as far as business on the books so you see you know that business begins to pick up in july and august september october all important tourism months in in these cities and and we see a fair amount of business on there so uh we track that over time uh real quick mid east and africa uh again hard hit here's hotel closures in the mid east not as significant as other areas of the world but the absolute occupancy is significant now there are outliers here riyadh and abu dhabi i can tell you more about that if we had time here's africa hard hit here especially some of the big tourism and gateway cities in the negative 90s u.s slow recovery notice the bottom was april 11 at negative 84. last week up to negative 74. so just a 10 increase when it comes to rev par percent change look at some of the uh uh biggest destinations as things begin to open up in the u.s um notice you're not seeing major markets in here are you you're not seeing miami beach and orlando and and new york and and uh l.a you're seeing you know destination you know smaller destination now a fair number of these are beach destinations but probably nobody in europe has heard of myrtle beach or fort walton beach uh and uh those are the ones that are seeing recovery now interesting too look at the premium between weekday and weekend you realize nobody's you know very few people are going to these places during the weekday some tourists are but the real business is the weekend these are weekend getaways transient travelers making it to the beach think about it everybody in the world has been locked up for three months and and people are beginning to get out you know one of these in in the 80 percent range so uh that's what we're beginning to see gatlinburg pigeon forge is near a big it's near the uh the most visited national park in the u.s and and keep in mind that's going to be in it you know that kind of travel and tourism is going to see a a real interest in this recovery mode why because hey i feel much more comfortable go into you know a park where i can hike in the woods than going to you know a big hot dead you know beach destination where i'm uh you know shoulder to shoulder with people that i've never met before and that's of course you know that's going to be one of the very positive uh messages for switzerland because there's just you know there's a lot of that type of travel and tourism and we're going to see i think a lot of swiss people visiting swiss destinations and nearby you know trains are still you know relatively operational and that'll be a positive sign but think about the types of uh locations that are seeing these positive signs here's just uh this is from the worst week moving back up you see slow uh improvements by class uh in the u.s that kind of data is available anywhere so don't hesitate to let me know big cities in the u.s now getting up to about 20 to 30 percent um at the worst time we were looking at 10 percent for most of these cities group business now that uh group occupancy is at negative eighty seven seven it was at ni it was about negative 97 so it's crept up a little bit that's group business meeting and events most of these are going to be small groups uh uh a group is defined as anything 10 or more conferences conventions we know they're cancelled but small groups still a little bit of business and then america's we see numbers around north america we see latin central america excuse me a typo there and then latin america uh south america uh beginning to see more on brazil and i don't have that i can get updated data on brazil but uh that's uh that's some of the impact in those particular areas so good let me pause for a second catch up any questions at this point scott keep moving sorry was fumbling for the mute there steve um there was really only one question and that was do you anticipate the curves kind of being the same in other words if you just sort of staggered them all properly so they overlapped or would you expect um now that it's becoming more of a uh sort of a global solution i guess or we're starting to look more forward towards a global solution would you expect now all of a sudden to see sort of quicker recovery in some of the markets that have dropped more recently yeah i think the curves are all going to be different and it'd be nice to say that they you know that that they were all going to be exactly the same it's not going to be uh as simple as that by far but you think about all the variables related to those recoveries um you know i was talking to somebody yesterday about hawaii you know no way nowhere to no way to get to hawaii if you're not on an air uh a flight and right now those are you know those are locked down so you know when how's that recovery gonna happen and and uh you know europe is you know is not too different than that i'll show you some data in a minute sure that's probably a good lead-in to some of this data that i have here talking about all the various variables but it's a good question and let's uh let's go there perfect lead in um recovery uh when who uh when how who why where you know what is it gonna take to get people traveling again well obviously the first step is is government restrictions and this shows you uh you know from our you know the best of our ability to put together data uh this shows us where we're at for major market major countries in europe and uh things beginning to open up as we shared things opening up a little bit in switzerland as as we were chatting about uh earlier uh governments under a lot of pressure to jump start tourism why because you know these these organizations like the swiss hotel association and the american hotel association they're putting pressure on governments to say hey here's you're killing us you're killing us and and that indeed is is happening uh and uh so a lot of pressure uh on governments all over the world air travel you know we've seen how air travel has just been decimated by this event and uh but we're beginning to see different countries uh different companies sharing their plans of reopening and what's it going to take to get back to capacity and it's gonna take some time they uh you know this is uh you know this is a realistic view um it's not the best news but it's they understand it's gonna take some time now who's traveling why they're traveling as i shared before the domestic travel is going to happen first it's that drive to destination easy to get to uh local accessible uh it's gonna be you know the smaller destinations like we shared the suburbans rather than the big cities the small cities rather than the the uh the major uh metro areas and and just as we saw the list of some of those beaches you know places where we're going to recover you know places that we'll see earlier recovery will be places that you haven't heard of before but but you know even for the students involved those are the kinds of places that will be more apt to be hiring quicker and uh and and they'll you know they'll need you back sooner than later weekend travel is gonna is already seeing signs of recovery compared to weekday that will take a little more time you know uh companies are not you know the business people are not back on the road generally uh traveling yet in big numbers so that's going to take some time and of course that's going to impact the hotel class variations and and you know last time i shared some uh slides on the differences between oc and adr group versus transient and those were significant we can maybe pull those up for next time but uh you know the transient travelers are going to get back quicker um if you know i may be tempted to go to a luxury go back to a luxury destination that i'd stayed stayed at before it may be expensive but i'd hey i want to go back and and especially if it's at a premium i can get that for a discount and so that kind of thing will be going on and we'll be watching that carefully here's some data on markets in europe and and the percent of travelers that are short haul versus long haul and you can see the short haul are at the top domestic more domestic travel though those small and you'll see up there more smaller cities uh up there so not the amsterdams and the londons and the copenhagens of the world more the uh you know smaller destinations the manchester's the the edinburghs and and uh sheffield's of uh the world uh look uh positive news um that we were sharing in april uh airbnb sharing signs of rebound in terms of recovery and and business on the books uh this is a tourism official from algarve and and sharing about summer bookings picking up and and algarve is a perfect example i was on a webinar two weeks ago with a bunch of professors from portugal and they were saying you know all garv is really picking up but think of it drive to train destination from lisbon and from madrid easy to get to so instead of those places instead of people from those places going you know to greece or uh you know further you know easy to get to the algarve go back and enjoy a little bit of a smaller uh situation there from a tourism point of view and and d you know viewed as a more coveted safe destination um positive signs in the uk these were um recent bank holiday weekends look at some of the big numbers when it comes to bank holiday weekends these were people you know getting out of the big cities going to lake districts going to the beach more and uh positive numbers there business on the books for uh major markets in europe we see heck a fair amount of business for july august september october moving into the fall when we look out you know we are seeing cancellations coming in and the change in business on the books is normally called pickup but when it's negative it's called cancellations and uh so you know little bits of cancellations going on but still a fair number of business on the books so when we look out for the business on the books this year is comparative to the business on the books last year so um still uh you know still some hope that uh this is coming back strong for the summer and the fall recovery profiles uh people tend to look uh you know everybody's thinking about what this recovery is gonna look like you saw a few uh examples there when we looked for example at china data we saw the downturn we saw you know a beginning of a recovery there could very well be a drag time period where uh it takes a little longer now could be a release you know some people say it could be a second wave that's just a positive possibility not for sure it could look something more like this where um it just drags for all and then fully recovers and and from a europe point of view we're looking at uh uh more of a u-shaped recovery here as you can tell uh you know reaching and this is uh running uh this is revpar type data but reaching a a bottom towards the end of this uh reaching a bottom at 2020 then recovering up uh you know almost back to normal in 2021 reaching fully back to normal in 2022 we look back at a lot of data especially in 2009 and this is uh something we can spend time doing more this shows europe compared to germany austria and switzerland in that prior recovery austria is a had a little had some more challenges during this time but you'll see uh germany recovered uh relatively quickly in the 2009 situation switzerland had some other things going on that caused a bit of a drag and and uh this is gopar that we're looking at uh during that prior time so profitability it'll be something we look at takes a little longer to look at that but that's definitely something we'll be looking at more in the future as far as resources are concerned i mentioned the scr website has a covid19 page and webinars will be on there upcoming webinars and recordings of past webinars are all on there so the upcoming webinars uh there's three upcoming webinars right now they'll be taking place this week and next week so you can keep up the webinars now that str folks are doing around the world are a little more focused on certain areas so that can help hotelnewsnow.com our sister company is uh you know almost every article on there is uh cobia 19 related and that's a good resource as well and then of course our program the share center can help you when it comes to data uh we we do lots of things but data and online training and certifications and things like that your professors know how to get in touch with us if you have a student project this is a you know great examples of of project possibilities uh so don't hesitate to reach out and and take advantage of this data if you're interested in seeing more about the the uh the kind of trends that you're looking at definitely uh let us know when we glide to help there as well so good that's it for me and i'm pretty close to time so i was gonna say thank you uh at this point i think uh avalanche of analytics and insight is probably a pretty fair statement um but uh and feel free to use that by the way i did hear you say that no not a problem that's yours i steal from you all the time so it's certainly fine um there was one question several questions that kind of really got you covered with the information that you talked about but there's one question uh that's actually quite interesting definitely from someone that understands uh your business model i think probably more than the uh the average person listening right now i'm a little suspicious it might have come from one of my colleagues even but it says um that whenever there's times like this that there's a downturn uh it leads to some business failure some of the less stable businesses but at the same time that creates opportunities right and so you guys as suppliers of information to developers an finances of hotels are you seeing an uptick in requests for information yet that would indicate people are starting to sniff around some of those opportunities yeah absolutely that's a crazy question by the way from it's a great question but whoa this would be like from a bunch of industry experts kind of a question frankly but but anyway yeah no surprise as as uh unfortunate as this event is it does make it clear how critical data is and and uh i was in a conversation recently with a small tourism organization in uh you know in a state in uh tennessee i mean in a state in uh the us and uh you know they they realized you know they they realized they really needed data to be able to navigate this particular event and uh so you know they never prior to this time they never thought data was quite that important well you know if everything's going great if you don't need it if it's going uh you know if you have a problem like this it's it's um it's significant i remember back to 911 in 2001 that was we were just launching the our program that collected daily data and and we launched it in about 1998 and uh so it was going along 99 2000 but there were some major holdouts uh in terms of companies well when 2001 when 911 hit those major whole those major companies were the first ones knocking on our door because they realized we have to we need data to be able to navigate through this event and we need to see what's happening each week we can't wait until monthly and so it definitely be uh becomes uh critical and and and just you know for professors as well you know research students projects you know you begin to see the value of this students this is you know you're going to be competing in the very near future when it comes to uh finding a job and and having that kind of big data analytics experience being able to walk into an interview and pop open a laptop and show hey this is the type of data analysis i've done wow that's going to make you stand out and and and they're used to that they see the need of that during this time so that's a plug for scott and uh everything he's doing so definitely uh do me a favor uh steve a real quick plug for chia while you're at it there you go you know that that's our certification hotel industry analytics you know what we and we didn't really think about that professors like the ones you work with were the ones that came to us back and this was a long time ago back in 2012 they knocked on our door and they said steve we need some sort of industry recognized stamp of approval that my student knows the terminology they know the methodologies the formulas the metrics they know the data they understand the reports they can use that stuff we need that and uh and and so we responded we worked with professors just like yours to be able to create that certification and and uh to to really answer the need and and that's uh that's the chia it's be literally become one of the most widely recognized industry certifications around so uh so thank you for putting that together okay so let me shift gears on you a little bit we've used your hotel industry uh expertise uh you told us a lot about analytics today you've shared a lot of great information about hotel performance but you alluded to something that i think probably is relevant to a lot of our uh students because as you mentioned it's the most visited attraction in the united states but it's kind of close to you so you can speak to it a little and you can tell them about it but it's not disneyland it's not universal it's not any of those places right what were you talking about specifically that place in gatlinburg is uh the national park is the smoky mountains and it has a bunch of small attractions uh uh one of them is uh is named for or and owned by dolly parton and you may not know her she's a country music singer and there again this is uh we're talking in the u.s we have this term redneck you know the country you know country people but um you know in the in the 2009 downturn i always joke about the fact that the 2009 downturn where every area of the u.s had negative performance this was the only area submarked market out of 650 that had positive numbers why because hey it's a drive to destination it's on the east coast so you can drive there from deep washington dc from atlanta even from new york um and you can get there you can spend a you know weekend or a week in the mountains hiking tubing fishing and uh you're not interacting with people and it's economical and you can go see dollywood is the name of the attraction that's right and uh thank you and uh but that uh you know those types of destinations and students when you're thinking about you know keep that in mind when you're thinking about going places you know don't think about the big group meeting uh hotels yet think about those type of boutique destinations my daughter works at one similar to that it's blackberry farms and you know again a small destination you know you can go there you know commune with nature and uh and those are going to be the types of ones even smaller beach destinations are going to be the types of ones that are going to begin to see that travel come back all the surveys that i've seen lots of companies do these uh travel intent surveys all the signs that we see as far as travel intent is that there's a lot of pent-up demand people anxious to get back to travel in asia they have a name for that they call it revenge travel and i had no idea what that meant but it it really refers back to pent up demand and i think we're going to see a lot of that but it's not going to hit you know it's not going to hit the fountain blue in miami beach you know it's going to hit the you know watercolor in in seaside and those are going to be the types of uh hotels that are going to see that uh business come back quickest so not hollywood not bollywood but dollywood right so uh i think we're we're up against our time but steve it's always uh we always learned something i think probably some people didn't expect to learn uh about the dolly parton theme park but hopefully they've learned a little bit about that as well but thanks for uh shedding light on what's going on with the industry um thanks for having that information available really to kind of give us hope that already things are starting to look a little bit better i think if we had talked about a tangible recovery a month ago when you were presenting to us i think there would have been a lot of skeptics so it's really really nice as you mentioned the value of data it's super powerful to be able to see that and really and support it with data so i want to thank you on behalf of all of our students uh one final word we're going to see you again in a month uh but one final word steve for everybody and then we'll uh we'll sign off best of luck to everyone definitely keep in touch and and yeah definitely uh look forward to coming back again and at that point think of it a month from now i think we'll begin to see signs of recovery in every area of the world and i'm hopeful that uh more good news to share excellent all right well steve thanks so much so on behalf of steve uh on behalf of the faculty of uh laroche and gleon again thank you for joining us for leading in hospitality through turbulent times and we'll see you guys all again soon