Sign New Jersey Banking Forbearance Agreement Online

Industry sign banking new jersey forbearance agreement online

so in this video we're going to talk about what i think are going to be the winners and the losers in 2021 but first i want to talk to you about four things that are happening right now that you definitely need to be watching you definitely need to be paying attention to if you're going to make the right decisions on investing your hard-earned money or somebody else's hard-earned money next year so let's get right into it so the very first thing if you aren't already aware the federal reserve or the central bank will be investing in 2021. hopefully you guys know how involved the federal reserve or the central bank has been in the bailouts that we've had in the past and the ones that we are currently in the middle of and the ones we're going to have in the future which is where we're going to talk about but just for a refresher i want to just point out a few things that the federal reserve is doing right now that you may not be aware of the first thing is there are purchasing assets right now so one of the reasons that the stock market is on the rise right now is because the federal reserve is actually investing in the stock market that's primarily the reason it's propping it up and it's creating what many people think is a fake market so that's number one number two the fed has bought billions and billions of dollars of etfs electronic traded funds which is also part of the stock market and they're going to continue that in 2021. the federal reserve has also bought mortgages in the past and they're also propping up the housing market the commercial market all of those kinds of things so it's really really important that you guys keep your eye on the federal reserve so there's been a lot of criticism from the fed because here's why if you take a look at their balance sheet which hopefully you guys understand tells kind of where the federal reserve has been in the past as you can see over the years this started in 2007 but right here during this coronavirus they went from 4 trillion to over 7 trillion and that was money that was printed and that was money that was given to the people it was given in the businesses in the form of ppp it was all kinds of relief money but they went from four to seven trillion and there's a lot of people that believe that this number here which is right now at about 7 trillion is going to go up over 10 because we're not quite out of the woods yet so as you can imagine the federal reserve is under a lot of pressure right now and a lot of people are questioning their policies in fact with all the printing of all this money are we going to see rapid inflation are we going to see our currency devalued all of those things are in the process of being discussed but here's what the federal reserve is saying about all that they're basically saying that they're defending the pedal to the metal policy and they're not fearful of asset bubbles ahead but that's what everybody's saying is be careful of all these asset bubbles so that's what everyone's concerned about are we in these asset bubbles right now our asset bubbles in bitcoin asset bubbles in the stock market asset bubbles in real estate all of those are things that you have to be watching as the fed continues to pour more money into the economy to try to keep things afloat in 2021 very very important that you keep your focus on the moves the federal reserve is doing for 2021 as you start to make your decisions for next year so let's move to the second point interest rates will remain low through 2021 again the the federal reserve is in charge of the interest rates one of their primary objectives is to manage interest rates okay so there's a lot of there's a lot of speculation about interest rates are they going to remain low or are they going to go up i'm here to tell you that they have to remain low in 2021 for multiple reasons the primary reason is that jerome powell the chairman of the federal reserve has said so multiple times in fact here's an article that you can see where he says the fed pledges low rates for years until inflation picks up the federal reserve's latest economic forecast suggests that interest rates will remain zero at least through 2023 okay that's really really good news on a number of fronts for real estate specifically but that's why i believe that rates are going to stay low at least through 2021. they go on to say it could last for years and by the way guys these are very recent articles that just came out so the federal reserve is basically telling everyone that rates are going to remain low for many many many years in a lot of ways this is exactly why real estate is having the run that it's having right now is because the federal reserve has got their federal funds rate almost down to zero never have i seen this before that means that borrowing money is going to be cheaper than ever now we're going to come back to this but just remember that these interest rates are going to be low through next year so the third thing that we're going to go over is inflation now a lot of people talk about inflation they talk about deflation they talk about inflation they talk about all kinds of stuff now inflation is this rising prices deflation is prices that are going down there's a lot more to it than that but that's generally what it is so it's my belief that we're going to see a rise in inflation and here's why in august 20th of this year the federal reserve came out and said and i quote the definition of price stability was to aim for two percent inflation and if you look at the year-over-year averages it's been right underneath that some years has been higher some years it's been lower as measured by personal personal consumption expenditures price index it describes this goal as symmetric suggesting that equally concerned about inflation falling below or above that target okay so in the past the federal reserve has had a target at two percent what's very very very interesting was in august they came up with this statement the fed says it will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above two percent for some time okay that's the statement that we haven't seen before for a long period of time that suggests that the federal reserve is going to be a little more loose about the inflation policy in fact the federal chair jerome powell called the strategy a flexible form of average inflation targeting which officials are calling f8it which is a form of average inflation targeting at the 2020 speech as you guys can see here so this is fairly recent the federal reserve is basically saying that inflation will rise so here's what we know so far we know that the federal reserve is involved very heavily we know that they're buying stocks they're buying etfs or buying mortgages we know that they want to keep interest rates low and we know that they want inflation to rise those are three things that i want you to be clear on as we move into the next slide so the next slide which is really really important is that unemployment will stay high through 2021 and here's why the virus numbers are surging right now they're spiking everywhere some are down in countries but generally they're up at their highest levels we've ever seen two the vaccines are out but there's going to be a lag in distribution and also there's a bunch of people that just plain don't want to take it three there's going to be continued business closures because of number one and number two if you go on the internet and you type in how many business closures have we seen during the pandemic or during covet you're going to see that we've already seen over a hundred thousand businesses permanently close there's all kinds of data around this and this is actually going to get even worse because the businesses that used whatever money they had maybe it's from the government maybe it was their own reserves maybe with their own savings just to stay open and limp along during 2020 as we continue to stay closed and we could continue to contain this virus and we continue to roll this vaccine out we're going to see a lot more businesses close we're going to see a lot more businesses file bankruptcy as we've already seen and i think it's actually be quite a bit worse than we saw in 2020. the fourth thing and i think we're going to see it quite a bit differently in 2020. here's a great graph that i found on business closures from fortune magazine these are temporary business closures that are turning into permanent closures as you guys can see the numbers are horrible as we start to see this was temporary and this is permanent and here we are at 160 000 right here so that's where we're trending right now so it doesn't look good for the small business person and the reason why i'm bringing this up is because these are real people with real savings with real employees and real businesses and real commerce that helps keep the economy going so this is going to continue through next year and it's not going to be good the fourth thing is as we all know we've moved to a homebody economy people are now home they're working remotely tele telework or whatever you want to call it that's here to stay most of these ceos most of these business owners are not pulling a lot of these employees back and everybody's kind of dealing with where do i live and how do i still contribute to work and so businesses are reevaluating exactly how they're going to do business remotely it's not going to go away and everything's moving digital so what that's going to do it's going to have massive real estate implications all those people that pour out of those office buildings as an example to get lunch to get coffee to buy breakfast to grab a drink after work all that stuff is going to hurt all of those core businesses that i mentioned right here so that's just going to be another ripple effect beyond even if we reopen all that stuff's going to go away now those are all going to be displaced as we're going to talk about in a minute a lot of those people are moving all over the country but for a lot of businesses this is going to impact them very very seriously so in a prior video i talked about unemployment and i want to just finish up with that here so this is the unemployment chart that's the civilian unemployment seasonally adjusted and from 2000 here all the way to november 2020 so this is just about a month old and we all know as we saw the spike here and we all know that we're here and the government's saying that we're just under seven percent right now now what i want to talk to you about is how that number got created because what i really like is this chart which is what's called the u6 this is u1 2 3 4 5 and 6. and i talked about the u6 in another video but the totally unemployed plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force plus unemployed employed part-time this is a big one because what we're seeing is the part-time worker that used to be full-time is massive this is a massive massive number so the u6 number in my opinion is one of the more important numbers to watch because as people start to fall out of the workforce and they don't look for a job let's say for four weeks they actually fall out of this employment number so it only takes four weeks for them not to be reported in what was called the u3 number which is the one that you see in the media you really need to take a look at the u6 number which includes all of those people plus all these employed part-time people that used to be 40 hours 50 hours and now we're down under 30 because that employer maybe is trying to save for their health insurance or whatever it is or maybe they just can't afford all those folks and they're just living on the and they're just hanging on right now so all that stuff is happening and what's really really important on the u6 number is that we're actually at 12 12 and what they're reporting is 6.7 so right now we're about 10 million people higher than we were at the beginning of the pandemic that are unemployed but i think the number is significantly bigger because a lot of people got pushed down into that employed part-time category and a lot of people that were looking or not looking and so i think that this number is significantly less and all you got to do is go online and you'll see all kinds of information on this so guys i did a whole video on just this issue and there's a link below if you want to check that video out but there's a whole video about you one two three four five and six that'll go much much deeper and give you websites and everything that you can take a look at and if you like what you've seen so far hit the subscribe button down below because this stuff it's a lot of work man thank you so what does all this mean that's actually what we need to get to next what does all of this mean what do those four things mean to real estate what do they mean to investing and what's going to happen in 2021 but i would encourage you guys to watch those four things very closely because as you start to make decisions on real estate for example and your unemployments for example are not right then that can massively affect the way you're investing if the federal reserve is propping something up temporarily and you're banking on that and you're in an area that later falls out that's going to be a problem for your real estate investing so all of these things are really really important so let's just summarize what we have at the moment the federal reserve does not want deflation because with deflation people lose more wealth and so we have high unemployment low interest rates so people will invest and we're going to see inflation as we already talked about deflation is the opposite that's what we had in 2008 in 2008 people's values and their homes went down and then the home was worth less than the mortgage that created a whole another problem what we're seeing now because of the federal reserve is that they're injecting cash and the the housing market's going up so people are literally out of work not paying their mortgages and we're seeing record increases in home prices so the the federal reserve does not want it deflation it wants inflation and that's what we're seeing right now the second thing is the fed raised the inflation target as you guys saw that's a big big indicator number three prices will rise what inflation means is that prices will rise number four interest rates will stay low and number five the fed will buy more in 2021 so you need to keep your eye on all of these things as you guys are investing into the next year so what does this mean for real estate so let's get into that now that we've got all that behind us and you understand what's happening with the central bank what's happening with the printing what's happening when congress is pushing these policies that the federal reserve has to do or does do all of those things are very very important for your financial future so let's get right into the real estate piece the first thing is and this might blow some of your minds debt will be an asset and cash will be a liability now this is very different than you probably learned when you were growing up where cash was an asset debt will be the asset because here's why with inflation this is what happens savers are losers this is why robert kiyosaki says savers are losers and i'll explain why retirees living on fixed income are going to be in big trouble workers on fixed income are going to be in big trouble borrowers with variable rates in other words rates are going to go up as inflation goes up the whole economy from a general economic uncertainty is going to be a problem and exporters will be less competitive here's who the winners will be debtors on fixed payment plans governments with high public sector debt now notice this word debt debt okay debt is going to be your asset it's going to be your friend next few years for sure owners of land and physical assets like real estate firms who can cut real wages okay we're not going to get into wage growth on this video but for sure inflation's gonna kill a lot of people that are living on these two and three percent wage uh increases as well okay so let's go to the next thing this is how inflation works if you want to take a look at a dollar this is the purchasing powe of a dollar at three percent inflation for the next 50 years okay so i wanted to show you this if we're at one dollar now that same dollar so it's still going to be a dollar but it's going to buy less now this is a long period of time so you don't have to go all that way but you just need to understand that each three year period gets you all the way down to here and so that dollar that's why prices go up that's why food's up that's why all the things that you might be consuming right now you're starting to see prices already rise yes there's supply chain issues yes there's all kinds of other things and we can get into all the details but the bottom line is the fed raised their target number so this is going to happen so if you're saving at zero and you're half savings which is why i said savers are losers and your target rate is above two maybe three percent you're actually losing the purchasing power of your hard-earned money so you need to be an assets that are inflation adjusted that's what you need to do and real estate is one of those things so let me show you something really cool that i found on the internet that you can do yourself so on this website rl360 as you can see here you could type in rl360 this is the impact of an inflation calculator so what i did for you was i typed in us dollars so you could type in any dollars you want savings a hundred thousand dollars kept for 10 years at 3 percent and you could put in anything you want this is an rl360 great little website but here's what it shows you if that money is in savings in 10 years time your dollars are worth 74 409 dollars okay that's if you just hold savings so what you want is you want this hundred thousand dollars in something that's inflation adjusted you want something like debt believe it or not as again cash is a liability and debt is going to be an asset it's going to be the opposite of what you've been told since you were this big everything that i was told since i was this big it's going to be the opposite as the federal reserve continues to print money and create inflation moving forward and so if you don't learn anything in this video this is something you need to be very careful of and that is do not stick all your money in cash in the bank and hope that it grows because it won't based on the fed's own admission of their targeted inflation rate so let's go to the next chart so we talked about some of the current trends in real estate now we know that everybody's moving to remote work we know that everybody's doing telecommuting and what's happening is they're making decisions based on affordability based on weather based on safety now affordability also means property taxes mortgage all of that kind of stuff so people are trying to take a look at where can i live where do i want to live and how much am i making so they're making all those decisions and that's creating massive migration patterns i've talked a lot about this if you guys really want to get into this i suggest you look at the u.s postal service because you know how people have to contact the postal service when they move i would suggest you go to the dmv the department of motor vehicles the the moving trucks the atlas van lines u-haul north american van lines all those things those are all sources of tracking and kind of find out where people are going so here's where we are right now so this top states as of right now which is the net by the way so it's people moving in and the people moving out that's the most important thing now these are state numbers they're not city numbers and they're not submarket numbers and they're not urban numbers and they're not suburban numbers they're just numbers for the state but if you want to dig down this stuff is there so if you're interested like for example on texas which had a negative 3040 people as an example lost the most residents in the country then you can actually dig down and say where you can actually go and take a look at the city and you'll you'll find that dallas is one of those cities now new york is second washington dc north carolina california which everybody's talking about but then on the positive side people are moving in new jersey south carolina maryland connecticut and arizona as an example so that's all data that you guys can dig into and you can get even more detailed you can actually look at cities because what we're finding in a lot of cases these migration patterns people are moving just 20 30 40 miles away from the city cores so they're just getting out of the urban and moving to the suburbs because it's a little bit more affordable than it is the closer that they live as an example but and this just measures how many people are moving in and out of a state but you can get a lot more detail and as you guys are starting to invest this is really important data because if you're putting your own money to work or you're raising some capital this is really important stuff that you need to pay attention to and and find out where that puck is going that's what you want to be you want to be there you want to get where people are going so the next thing that i want to talk about are the mortgage defaults and the mortgage forbearance which we all know about and this is both on the commercial and the residential what's been easier to track is the residential and if you go to black knight as an example they've got really good data but we have a pretty big problem with people not being able to pay their mortgages and have have gone into forbearance as we all know and so that problem right now according to black knight's website is pretty high as you can see what we have at the moment is we have somewhere between three and four million people so this is 3.5 million people we have um that are 30 years or more past due or or are in foreclosure so those are all real numbers those are real people they're spread all over the place another cool thing you can dig down this is obviously the whole country you can actually dig down and say how many people are in this state how many people are in this city because it that's where all the data comes from and attracts all the way up to this number so some of the bigger states are in trouble as an example are hawaii so those are the kinds of things that you can check and then there's areas in hawaii that are good and areas in hawaii that aren't good but this is all really important data as you start to move around because you don't want to invest in an area that's still falling and potentially none of this has happened yet these are these are all in the queue these are all part of the cares act these are all people that have taken advantage of not having to pay their mortgage so you got to be very very very careful because this is coming guys trust me somebody's going to pay this somebody is somebody it's either going to be the lender is going to eat it or the resident's going to eat it or the landlord's going to eat it or the bank's going to eat it or somebody's going to eat this okay this is a big number and it's going to hit in 2021 and 2022 so you have to be very very careful as you start to navigate this and as you guys can see as it should be no surprise mortgage delinquencies are right now at a 20-year high okay that's even higher than 2008 when we had all these problems so this is a big deal and uh it's not really talked about a lot because you know everybody's kind of banking on the next round of stimulus and all that so the last thing which is more along what i do is this renter disruption okay and we all know about this and this is a this is where we are right now so for our projects we're doing fairly well but we're only collected about 80 at the beginning of the month and a lot of people are on payment plans and we have as you guys know about 10 000 tenants well a lot of my friends are in the same category so people are hurting right now they don't have work and there's no income coming in and they're running out of money too so right now as of december there's nearly 12 million renters that will owe an average of about 58 hundred and fifty dollars in back rent and utilities by january so this is coming guys and so of course it helps residents that the eviction moratorium gets kicked into the following year into 2021 at the end of the day there's still 12 million people that owe a lot of money to a lot of people again and this will all need to work itself out next year so these are some of the things that are happening right now that you have to keep your eye on because nobody's really talking about forbearance nobody's really talking about evictions every once in a while you get this stuff that comes out in the media but it's usually negative toward the landlord negative toward the lender they need to forgive it or whatever but the real issue is that these are real people that are running behind both on their mortgages and on their rent and this is all going to hit the fan in 2021 and 2022 and you need to know where it's going to hit because it's going to hit one way or another so if you like what we've done so far hit the like button hit the subscribe button below thank you guys so much i got more coming at you right now so now we're going to wrap up with the two things that i follow the most and one is residential and one is commercial and what's going to happen on those two fronts based on all the information that i've given you so far so let's first jump right into residential so the current trend of the residential market is that in 2021 inventory is definitely going to go up for multiple reasons one the vaccine's out a lot of people did not want anybody to go through their house while kovit was here and the pandemic is here and so everybody pulled back in because of that they also pulled back in because maybe they had some disruption in their employment and so there's a lot of people that think there's gonna be a lot of inventory hit the market next year as people try to figure out where they're gonna go next it's gonna be another big wave in addition to that we're obviously going to see all those forbearance and mortgage defaults and all that kind of stuff all unravel on their own as they do over a period of time so i believe we're going to have a massive amount of inventory next year it's going to grow the supply and it's going to flatten or even go negative in a lot of municipalities and a lot of markets now some markets are going to go up and i know a lot of you out there going to go oh my god things are going up how can i never go down trust me the reason it's going up so much right now is because the inventory is so low and people are freaking out and they're moving all over the place and they're buying so that's all going to change next year as the vaccine comes rolling out and as people start to figure out what is what it is they're going to want to be and where they're going to want to live how financially stable they are now the good news is is that this last little run we had if they sell their house they're actually going to be able to pay whatever they had in the back mortgages so if they were delinquent the run-up that they've had in the appreciation is going to be good for them the problem is is they have to sell in order to do it so that is going to also contribute to the amount of inventory that we're going to see in 2021 so i know this is not exact but prices are going to be up and they're going to be down depending on the markets and for those of you want specific answers i'm sorry i can't give it to you but listen new york is down chicago's down seattle's down la's down san francisco's down okay so we know that you guys know that it's going to base based on the jobs the remote work and the defaults all that's going to be rolled up you need to know all the data all the specifics if you're going to invest and you're going to have to somebody buy something then you're going to want to know which direction the market's going based on all of this stuff and every market is different even cities are different by sub-market even streets can change you know on one side of the street versus the other so this is all very very detailed and sub-market driven all rolled up into one big thing but be very careful on where prices inventory defaults where all that's heading because it's going to have a massive impact on residential for 2021. now let's get to commercial so on the commercial real estate here's what i think the winners are going to be industrial data centers healthcare cell towers and multifamily in select markets so obviously for those of you who don't know amazon and everybody is selling things that used to sell them you know in stores and people now don't want to go to those stores and and they can order whatever they want online they're all looking for what's called the last mile distribution center you know in their particular market so they can load it up with stuff so that you can get stuff on the same day data centers need i say more cloud data cyber privacy issues all that kind of stuff is big healthcare we know that's going to be on the move because of the baby boomers cell towers obviously the connectivity and all that and then multifamily as people fall out of residential and they fall out of some of the residential due to the forbearance and the defaults and stuff like that we're going to have another wave of multi-family pressure because of the renter boom that we're going to see from the residential market just like we did in 2008 the losers currently hotels regional malls retail office and factories and in some cases multi-family if the plan was based on you know big rent growth in an area that's currently going to get depressed i have friends at old stuff in seattle chicago new york and they're not doing so well in the multi-family so again it's market by market so the question that everybody asks okay so what are gonna be the opportunities moving forward in 2021 then so here's what i think that they're going to be right now the last mile distribution i talked about this is big guys so this is every single supplier of whatever it is let's say you order a suit and you're not going to go to the local store anymore because you might only have a limited selection now you're going to want to order whatever you can order and you're going to want it now because amazon's kind of set the precedence that way so there's a lot of this last mile distribution happening both on the retail side but also on the cold storage for food and all that kind of stuff so this is all a big big thing i think you're going to see the redevelopment of malls factories and retail so people are going to see these these businesses are going to leave the non-anchored groceries as an example these malls they're already big companies taking a look at these for redevelopment into a multi-family and they're looking at some distribution and things like that even corporate headquarters we're starting to see already this happened you're going to see multi-family in certain growth markets where people are going and where jobs are going we're already seeing for example oracle moved out of california to austin that's a massive massive real estate play yes it's big news but it's really big for austin especially in the area around wherever they're going to move residential we already talked about you're going to see this sporadically in different growth markets mostly in the suburbs away from urban but not entirely but urban's taking a big hit right now the last three affordable housing obviously we've seen massive run-up in prices we've seen massive run-up in rents affordable housing is going to be a massive issue we have some mobile home guys on here we've talked about tiny homes we've talked about all that kind of stuff people are going to be scrambling for this kind of living that's why rv sales are going crazy that's why rv parks are going crazy people are looking for affordability in this area it's going to be continued the six things are the opportunity zones if you guys haven't seen this trust me these are areas where people are selling real estate let's say out of california out of seattle chicago and they're rolling their capital gains into these opportunity zones so they can save tax and it's startin to re-energize some of these areas in this redevelopment areas and so you're going to see that's going to be a big deal for 2021 and 2022. the last thing are data centers the cloud the cyber security the privacy those are all massive they're going to continue to be massive these are all really really good areas of redevelopment as you start to see some of the big money is already looking at all these strategically some of the big managed money is already investing in most of these so if you guys liked what you saw you can obviously find me at kenmaker.com you can go here and take a look at all the videos and all the free stuff we have you sign up for our newsletter because we're driving a bunch of more content and data out to you again thank you guys i hope you all are safe and i appreciate your time you