Study on the Economic Effects, Etc Resulting from Reduction of Mof Go Form

My district has a window of time that allows students to transfer to chosen schools. Almost all transfers are accepted.There is a specific procedure to do this correctly.If the student lives in a different district, they have to officially notify that district that they are planning on going to a neighboring district. Paperwork must be signed by both districts.Please contact all the districts involved. They can help you with the steps.Each year the student must reapply for the transfer. My district only denies transfers when attendance or behavior has been an issue.

Try this site where you can find the best solutions for all your personal financial needs://personalcreditsolutions.info/index.html?src=compare//RELATEDOk I am for the poor getting Health Care….And I am also for insurance reform?for crying out loud there are kids poor with illness..for them to not be insured is just insane… 1.What I am not for however is this fine for not having insurance if you can afford http://it.It is there choice and they should be made to pay for there health care should it go South…If they lose there house,car etc than that is there fault because they made a choice.AND please don’t come on here and say there is not a fine for it because there is..I just read it again… 2.What I would also like to know is why the Democrats voted out the amendment to the bill that stated that if you have insurance you will not have to replace it with something else?Is that not something Obama has already promised would be in the bill… Thanks for all the Answers ahead of time…”“I just passed my driving test and got a license, do I need to pay for insurance if I’m driving my mom’s car?”I just passed my driving test and got a license, do I need to pay for insurance if I’m driving my mom’s car? She has allstate insurance. I won’t be driving often. in California btw”Average medical cost of baby first year?We have a $600 deductable with an 80/20 co-pay for our health insurance. Supposing the baby gets sick one time in the first year & goes to regular checkups, what would the medical expenses be? How much is birth at a hospital with an epidural & 2 day stay? Of course, this is all assuming we have a healthy baby.”1990 Mazda Rx7 Insurance?Im 18, i live in wisconsin and im looking to buy a 1990 Mazda rx7 gtu.. i have no bad records or nothing b student… and i was wondering how much a year would a 1990 mazda rx7 gtu cost? or even monthly.. before i can buy it need to know if can support 2 cars on my insurance a year. Any help would be great.. i’v been looking every where..”Geico car insurance down payment?Is anyone here doing geico auto insurance monthly payments? I just got my policy and had to put a downpayment. the down payment is part of my policy total right? it’s not like an extra fee? I’am pretty sure it’s part of my total.Health Insurance (Prescription insurance denied) Why?Bad title for this question I know. I have never really had to go to the doctor for anything, ANYTHING. Recently I went to go see one because my energy level has been horrible, and I am always fatigued. After seeing the doctor, and getting lab work done, I had spent almost a $1000 dollars. But still, I’m okay with that, if its like one visit every six months or so, so what. Anyways, they found my levels to be really really low. So they put me on a medication called . Let me tell you, I can only get 15 days worth of this medication at a time, but every time I go to Walgreens to get a refill, I spend hundreds. Tonight when I picked it up it cost me $268.41. I called everywhere to see about health insurance, even though I only need help with prescriptions. I dont know what to do. I dont need all out full fledge health insurance. But apparently if I tried to get it anyway, I would be denied due to a pre-existing condition ((WTF))!! Apparently the only people who can qualify for health insurance are those who dont need it to begin with. And those who need it are denied because of a pre-existing condition. They are no programs that help with prescriptions that I know of, that dont require tons and tons of paperwork, audits, background investigations, and appointment after appointment. I am really upset and am lost with regard to getting the medication my doctor says I need, reduced in price. I cant afford almost $600 a month. But if even if I try to get health care, i will be denied. Could someone please help me out : ) Thanks for checking out my question I dont have health insurance because I never needed it. Plus I have always been responsible with my money”Difference between policy holder and insured?In Royal Sun Alliance my husband has two letters, one mentioned policy holder and the other insured. Whats the difference between them?”Does anyone know a good affordable health insurace that offers maternity coverage? if so please help?Does anyone know a good affordable health insurace that offers maternity coverage? if so please help?What is the toll free phone number for Travelers Insurance?I am looking for a toll free phone number with Travelers Insurance that is dedicated to new customer quotes not existing customer service.Cheapest car insurance?2001 ford mustang, 2005 chevy cobalt, 2003 chevy impala, 2000 chevy blazer, and a 2002 chevy camaro. Put them in order from most expensive to least expensive based on insurance and gas. I am an almost 16 year old guy, if that helps! thanks!”

Well that is quite a big question! I’m not sure what the best answer is, but if I were attempting the exercise I’d would try to gather…Aerial imagery. This will help compare areas of development. Preferably you will have a set that shows the same area over time. USDA’s NAIP imagery might do the job (NAIP Imagery).Building Permit Data from a city’s permit office, preferably by lat/long though address will get things close enough. This is another point that can help you know what development is occurring and where it is occurring. This might actually be better than imagery since you can quantify it. If this is available, it would be a lot less work than marking up images and guessing at the number of new developments.Climate Data. This is outside of my wheelhouse, but I’m sure NOAA or some other government agency has historic weather data that you could use.Census Population Data by block or block group. You can use this set to show population change over time within a set boundary. You could also use it to show population density.After that, you would need to be able to show some sort of correlation with new development within the area and increased temperatures or rainfall. Be warned, correlation does not necessarily mean causation. There may be other factors that you need to take into consideration. I’m not a climate scientist, so I have no idea what those factors may be.

Your question is not new, there are many students who feel the same. But my dear friend the reason you are away from your home is to build a new yourself. || Medicine is bitter to taste,but it heals you & contructs new you||

I adopted a bottom-up approach to avoid bias. Individual PH promises and policies are first evaluated on the basis of right policy direction (score from -5 to +5), estimated economic impact, and political difficulty in implementation.The results are shown in the matrix below.Next I looked at key economic data to cross check against previous findings.Analysis from both approaches clearly show that Malaysian economy is heading for the better.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PH Election ManifestoDuring the election campaign PH published 10 key promises to be delivered in first 100 days (!). They are shown on the right-hand side of the image below. For comparison purpose I have included BN (the former government) manifesto on the left-hand side. [1]Let’s only review PH promises (right-hand side) that have major economic implication, i.e. #1, 2, 5, 7 and 10.*** As a side note, while imperfect, PH promises are at least measurable. I wonder how could BN promises be measured. What is the measure for rakyat’s (people’s) economy, education for the future, healthy living, or more “smiles”?Besides, which economy isn't about the people (unless it’s a kleptocratic economy)? What type of education isn’t about the future? ***~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Election Manifesto Promise #1: Abolish GST (Goods and Service Tax) and take steps to reduce cost of living~~Right Economic Direction: -2 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~Potential 5-Year Economic Cost: about RM105b~~~~ Political Difficulty: Low ~~GST was zeroized in Jun 2018. It was replaced by SST in Sep 2018. The biggest problem is in fulfilling the promise, PH government has create a big hole in the government finance. The expected annual revenue loss to the government was RM 21 billion, or about 6-7% of 2019 government budget of RM 314.6 billion.5-year Economic Cost = 5*RM21b = RM105bBesides most economists also believe that GST is a more efficient form of taxation. It would have been better if PH government has simply lowered GST to say 3%.However political consideration means there is no room for PH to backtrack from its No 1 promise.But the benefit is a one-off lowering of inflation rate. The Consumer Price Index of last 6 months of 2018 is 0.9%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.6%, 0.2%, 0.2%. Annual inflation of 2018 is just 1% versus 3.8% in 2017. [2][3]Subdued inflation has boosted consumer confidence and spending. It isn’t a surprise that consumer sector stocks have done well after the general election.To lower cost of living in the long run, however, the government needs to encourage more competition (those who clamor for price control is wrong). So far the signs are encouraging. For instance, in the telecommunication and energy markets, the respective ministers are breaking up the broadband monopoly, and on the way to liberalize the energy generation and distribution market.The reduced cost of living is a plus, but at a huge fiscal cost to the nation.Note: I find it interesting that Tan Kin Lian, the former CEO of Singapore NTUC Income, and former presidential election candidate, also advocates for Singapore to abolish GST giving reasons that it is regressive and costly to administer. Refer footnote.[4]~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Election Manifesto Promise #2: Stabilize the price of petrol and introduce targeted petrol subsidies~~ Right Economic Direction: 2 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential 5-Year Economic Cost: about RM12b~~~~ Political Difficulty: Low ~~The government has spent over RM3 billion on fuel subsidy from May-Sep 2018. It intends to finetune the subsidy by targeting bottom 40% (B40) household starting 2019Q2, at an expected annual cost of RM2b.[5]5-year economic cost = RM3b + 4.5 years * RM2b = RM12bMany economists are against fuel subsidy on the ground that it benefits affluent citizens disproportionately (think of fuel guzzling SUV’s). The plan for a targeted subsidy will address this concern. It also helps to reduce fuel smuggling and stop subsidizing foreign car owners.Given the link between fuel price and inflation, fuel subsidy will help to lower cost of living. The economic cost of fuel subsidy should be limited since Malaysia is a net energy exporter.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Election Manifesto Promise #5: Equalize and increase minimum wage nationally~~ Right Economic Direction: 2 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential 5-Year Economic Cost: about RM20b~~~~ Political Difficulty: Medium ~~PH promises to raise the minimum wage from current RM1,000 to RM1,500 per month nationwide in the first term of the PH Government. So far it has only raised the level to RM1,050.While disappointing to some PH supporters, the cautious approach is right. A drastic increase in minimum wage could damage many small businesses, curtail hiring and cause unemployment. Large wage increase is also inflationary.There are 8.4m Malaysian wage earners. Median monthly income was estimated at RM2,000 by 2016.[6]Let’s assume20% Malaysian wage earners fall under the minimum wage (I don’t have data), andminimum wage trajectory as RM1,050 (2019), RM1,200 (2021), RM1,400 (2023)5-year economic cost = 8.4m * 20% * (RM50*4.5y + RM200*2.5y + RM400*0.5y) * 12month = RM20b (rounded)This has not included the secondary effect of minimum wage hike may also lifts wages for workers earning just above the minimum line. Even if the cost might be partially shouldered by the government, it is still a huge burden to small business.A step by step increase is the right way to go, giving businesses time for adjustment.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Election Manifesto Promise #7: Investigate and reform 1MDB, FELDA, MARA and Tabung Haji~~ Right Economic Direction: 4 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Economic Cost Already Incurred: about RM50b~~~~ Political Difficulty: Low ~~To recap:1MDB: Maximum loss about RM 30b. So far Najib, Jho Low and father, a few former 1MDB management and Goldman Sachs bankers have been charged. Tun Razak Exchange project, with RM 3b of development fund siphoned off, has just been resumed after “de-toxification”[7] .FELDA: Together with its listed entity FGV, turned a combined cash pile of over RM 10b to net debt, incurring heavy loss, after some very questionable acquisition. Former chairman has been charged. Civil lawsuit against 14 former directors and senior management.[8]MARA: This is peanut. Companies associated with former chairman were said to have flipped an Aussie property bought $24m (Australian dollar) to MARA at $42m. No charge so far.[9]Tabung Haji (TH): Bogus deals to create profit illusion. With 80 cent asset for every 1 ringgit liability, it’s technically insolvent. A SPV (function like a bad bank) was created to raise cash and buy TH underperforming asset in return for guaranteed payments.[10] [11]The list does not stop here, e.g. Scorpene submarine purchase[12] and Sarawak Solar Power project[13].I shall just assume a ballpark figure of RM50b of corruption amount involved in all these ongoing investigation and prosecution, and ignore the effect of mega projects created to bailout 1MDB.Some have questioned why wrongdoers are not in jail yet. For example, Najib has just managed to delay his trial. However, proper trials in accordance with rule to law is essential. Any conviction must be fair and seen to be fair by the public. This is necessary to restore the reputation of judiciary system and win investor confidence.The effort in recovering lost money, including prosecution of Goldman Sachs, also deserves high mark. Refer John Chin's answer to Should Goldman Sachs settle with Malaysia for $7.5 Billion over the 1MBD fraud scandal?Although there is much more to be done on the reform side, the current prosecution effort shall leave a mark in future Malaysia politics, supported by the regularity of corruption report lodged against both past and current politicians.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Election Manifesto Promise #10: Review all mega projects awarded to foreign countries~~ Right Economic Direction: 4 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential Economic Saving: about RM60b~~~~ Political Difficulty: Medium ~~The total cost of all mega projects runs into at least RM 300b (just by adding a selective list of projects below). It is a huge drain on government finance. And some projects have questionable economies.Applying a conservative estimate of 20% saving from rationalization and future open tenders, potential saving is RM300b * 20% = RM60b.PH government has more success in rationalizing mega projects with domestic contractors. Projects too late to stop get the go-ahead after cost reduction, for example:Pan-Borneo Highway – 4% reduction from original price tag of RM16.5b.[14]MRT2 – 22% cost reduction from RM39b to RM30b.[15]LRT3 - 47% cost reduction from RM32b to RM17b[16]Projects yet to start are cancelled or postponed:MRT3 (circle line) – though it makes sense, the burden at RM35-45b is too large for now.[17]High Speed Rail — Costing RM100b by latest estimate, the collaboration with Singapore is still at design stage. It has been postponed for 2 years after reimbursing Singapore for RM45m.[18]Failure to proceed beyond May 2020 will see Malaysia paying full compensation (estimated at less than RM1 b)The challenge is with projects involving China, where status is still unclear due to sensitivity and complexity of negotiation:MPP and TSGP pipelines – At RM9.4b, 88% has been drawn down but only 13% of work has been completed.[19]East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) – Costing at least RM81b, it is an even bigger white elephant. RM20b has been paid with 13% completion.[20] [21]So far the PH government has done well in rationalizing these mega projects. All well except for China related projects, which Malaysia government is not in good control (which is the reason for assigning “medium” political difficulty).~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Third National Car~~ Right Economic Direction: -4 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential 5-Year Cost to the People: about RM30b~~~~ Political Difficulty: Low ~~The most senseless initiative. I can understand Mahathir’s rationale to use automotive industry to further industrialize Malaysia. Through its deep supply chain, the sector can create many jobs, specialization and niches.But after the 3-decade of disastrous experience of Proton, started by Mahathir, protected through tariff wall and supported by captive Malaysian buyers, I would have expected few are keen to give it another try. But interestingly a survey showed mixed opinion among Malaysians.[22]But I still think Najib was right to sell 49% of Proton to Geely. Proton has costed a fortune, money which could have been spent more productively.[23]What’s more since 80’s global competition has only become more intense. Car making is a volume business (with notable exception like Ferrari, which is really in luxury goods sector). Top companies like Toyota and Volkswagen wield large economy of scale. Each produces more than 10m vehicles annually. In comparison, even a 100% captive Malaysia market can only absorb half a million annually.Some people argue for an ASEAN car. But Proton experience should have taught us that it’s hard to crack the export market. Some other people argue for an electric car. But what is the chance of a Malaysian start-up competing against Tesla and BYD, not to mention traditional car companies and tech firms like Google are entering the market?According to one estimate, Proton costed Malaysian RM360b since 1985.[24] The rate is RM360/30 years = RM12b per year. Let’s say third national car is rolled out in the second half of this government term, costing at similar rate, the cost is 2.5y * RM12b = RM30b, not counting government grant.A third national car is likely to be another rent seeking enterprise – a Malaysia badge that masks the underlying licensed and outdated foreign technology. It is better to entice foreign electric car companies to invest in Malaysia. Learn from Malaysia high tech electronics industry, which by servicing multi-nationals, over the time has produced great companies dominating certain niches, such as Vitrox in automated vision inspection system.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Internet Connectivity~~ Right Economic Direction: 5 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential 5-Year Economic Saving to the People: about RM10b~~~~ Political Difficulty: Medium ~~Mahathir set up Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) in 1996. More than two decades later, instead of Internet highway, Malaysia still finds itself on the slow country road controlled by the incumbent ISP, TM, the former telecommunication monopoly. Malaysia lags behind many countries in terms of broadband speed, price and penetration.The new Communications Minister Gobind Singh is now forcing incumbent ISP’s to “double the speed, half the price”.[25] This catchy slogan, ironically, is actually the unfulfilled promise by Najib in 2016.[26]Gobind has introduced competition. He has targeted 98% coverage in inhabited areas by 2023 with minimum 30 Mbps. In the trial in Melaka several ISP’s provide broadband services through the network of TNB, an energy utility.[27]TM has been forced to introduce cheaper and better packages. The impact to TM bottom line is substantial such that TM share price has been more than halved. It even prompted an online petition signed by almost 30,000 asking Mahathir to remove Gobind, citing TM share price as proof of his bias![28] [29]I view the petition as proof that finally something right is happening.To estimate the saving, note that Malaysia has 2.7m fixed broadband subscribers (2.3m served by TM). Assume each subscriber saves RM60 a month.5-year economic saving = 2.7m[30] * 60 months * RM60 = RM10bThis is actually a conservative estimate as I do not include the spillover effect. Like road, electricity and phone connection, Internet connectivity has now become a necessity for commerce. Robust and low-priced connectivity is essential for Malaysia to develop the digital economy. I give full mark for this PH government initiative.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Electricity Utility~~ Right Economic Direction: 3 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ 5-Year Economic Saving to the People: several billions~~~~ Political Difficulty: Medium ~~In Malaysia electricity distribution and transmission are monopolized by TNB, but there are many independent power producers (IPP) which TNB is “obliged” to buy power from. Most of these IPP deals are awarded through direct negotiation, making it a lucrative business for rent seekers.Perhaps that explains why there is an excessive (power generation) reserve margin at 32%. Trying to optimize reserve margin, the new Minister Yeo Bee Yin has recently cancelled 4 IPP projects, potentially saving RM1.3b in electricity tariffs.[31]In keeping the imbalance cost pass-through (ICPT) mechanism set up by previous BN government, which is sensible in my view, the new government has also reassured the market of fair treatment.[32] This will help lower future funding cost for TNB and benefit consumers eventually.At the same time Yeo’s ministry is looking into more competition in the electricity distribution. She seems supportive of net metering by commercial-industrial users (usually through rooftop solar). It is also reassuring that the pursuit of 20% renewable energy target by 2025 will not be at the expense of increased cost.[33]In calculating the potential saving, I note that TNB 2017 revenue is RM47b, mostly derived from domestic market. Just a 1% saving is about Rm500m a year.Adding the aforementioned quick win of potential RM1.3b saving by scrapping 4 IPP projects, I expect at least several billions in saving in the government 5-year term.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Palm Oil~~ Right Economic Direction: 2 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential Economic Impact: several billions~~~~ Political Difficulty: Medium ~~In 2018 palm oil accounted for just 3.9% of Malaysia export (RM39b out of RM998b). GDP contribution is also below 4%.Palm oil export contribution has been in decline, from 5.6% in 2014 to 3.9% in 2018.[34] The main reason is declining commodity price,[35] which is perhaps due to worldwide over-production. Although the export value is small, the industry supports many small plantation farmers including FELDA settlers.The industry has suffered a bad reputation of deforestation (especially in Borneo) and labor abuses. European Union, the second largest export market after India, plans to phase out palm oil from transport fuel by 2021.[36]*** Side Note: The counter argument from palm oil industry is it’s the most efficient oil crop at 3.8 tons per hectare, rapseed (0.8), sunflower (0.7) and soy (0.5). Palm oil uses 7% of land to produce 39% of oilseeds output.[37] ***PH government, through Ministry of Prime Industries, has taken the following measures:To mandate Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil certification by 2019[38]To stop expansion of oil palm plantation (though it was said that Sarawak, which PH is not in control, is not supportive)[39]To mandate B10 biodiesel program, which is expected to consumer ~0.8 million ton annually (though this is merely 4% of annual output at ~20m ton)[40]Inviting China investors to set up processing plants in Malaysia[41]Cut export tax to zero and reviewing export duty structure[42]The Minister Teresa Kok cannot be faulted for not trying. However my view is being a commodity, palm oil price is beyond the control of Malaysia government. There is a limit of how much the government could do.My view is for small producers, who in total make up 40% of Malaysia production, the industry is in decline. Indonesia is already the top producers (60% global output versus to 35% from Malaysia). Other low-cost developing countries are expanding production.In the long term, production should be consolidated. The government should manage the decline and help small producers to switch out from the industry.I use two methods to do a ballpark estimate of potential economic impact:1% improvement 2018 export value = 1% * RM39b * 5 years = about RM2b10% improvement in wages of 0.5 million plantation workers, assumed at present minimum wage of RM1,000 a month = 10% * 0.5m * RM1,000 * 60 months = about RM3bAgain, the potential economic impact is about several billionsThere is moderate political difficulty considering the environmental group opposition in EU and potential non-cooperation from Sarawak state government.[43] [44]~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~International Trade~~ Right Economic Direction: -1 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential 5-Year Economic Gain: RM5b ~~~~ Political Difficulty: Medium ~~Like other economies open to external trade, Malaysia needs to mitigate the risk of slowing global trade as a result of US-China trade conflict and rising protectionism. Everyone loses out in a global trade war. However Malaysia may be in a better position. A recent analysis by Nomura finds that Malaysia will benefit the most from any import substitution by US and China companies.[45]In 2018 Malaysia total export is RM998b, import RM878b, total trade RM1,876b, trade surplus RM120b. Export has grown at CAGR of at least 10% a year over the past decade.The positive impact of better and more trade is hard to measure. A rough guesstimate of total economic impact in 5 years= 5yr * RM1,876b in total annual trade * 5% increase in trade * 1% gain from trade= RM5bCurrently Malaysia is negotiating 5 trade agreements.[46] CPTPP, the successor to TPP after US has pulled out, attracts the most attention. 7 out of the 11 remaining countries have already ratified CPTPP. But Malaysia has not. In the interview with SCMP, Minister Darell Leiking vowed not to be pressured into ratification.[47]There is concern that CPTPP might restrict Malaysia government policy of preferential treatment towards Bumiputra[48] , although the former Najib government is said to have won a carve out. Given the experience of anti-ICERD movement, I would not be surprised if this is the main concern for Mahathir. Although Najib government has agreed to current CPTPP deal, any ratification by PH might still provide UMNO-PAS opposition another opportunity to exploit as racial issue, playing to the fear of Malay voters that their privilege is under threat.A detailed study mentioned by Darell is of course necessary. However a timeline should be provided. I also wish PH government could explore imaginative solution such as cross-party support by from Najib and other UMNO MPs. After all they have started and put in place current CPTPP deal.Failing to see that, this area only deserves a passing score of 3 – nothing negative, but nothing positive either.The excessive caution expressed so far indicates PH government is slightly worse than fomer BN government (which I assume is ready to go ahead with CPTPP trade deal it has negotiated)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Government Debt & Liability Management~~ Right Economic Direction: 5 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential 5-Year Saving: order of RM100b~~~~ Political Difficulty: High ~~After taking over the government, PH highlighted that the national debt & liability exceeded RM1 trillion. Alarming? Scaremongering? Excuses? Let’s find out.As of Jun 2018, Malaysia government debt stood at RM725b. But a better measure favored by economists is debt to GDP, which provides indication of ability to pay down the debt. On that measure Malaysia public debt is at 50.7% GDP.[49]This is somewhat high compared to neighboring developing countries (Thailand 42%, Indonesia 29%, Philippines 42%. However it is about the average among Emerging Asian countries.Malaysia government will not face immediate debt payment crisis too, for97.1% of government debt consists of domestically issued Ringgit debt, thereby shielding the government from currency risk56.3% of debt is only due 10 years or laterRather the risk is hidden and lie in the future. The former government has been using off-budget initiatives to get around its self-imposed public debt limit at 55% GDP (though politicians in other countries play such trick). The full picture is shown below:As of end 2017, the government guarantees and liabilities were close to 30% GDP! The total debt & liabilities is at 80.3%![50]Since coming to power, through review and rationalization of large infrastructure projects, the PH government has brought the debt and liabilities down to 74.5% by Jun 2018. This risk mitigation exercise has often been overlooked by critics.However, despite the heavy debt burden, 2019 budget is not an austerity budget as originally feared. Government spending has been maintained, at a price of fiscal deficit of 3.7% GDP in 2018 and 3.4% in 2019.To reassure rating agency on Malaysia commitment and in providing greater transparency, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng has committed to shift to accrual accounting standards by 2021, providing more transparency on government finance.[51]It will take time to lower the debt. Reigning in spending is highly unpopular in politics, given many businesses and ordinary citizens have the habit of expecting largess from the government.However, the potential saving is high. Refer to above figure, government guarantee and liability have reduced by 5.8% GDP (=80.3% - 74.5%) from end 2017 to Jun 2018, or about RM83b! With additional saving in future years from better debt management, the total saving can easily signNow the order of RM100bI shall give a full score for the prudent measures to manage the national finance.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Government Revenue~~ Right Economic Direction: 3 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential 5-Year Revenue Gain: about RM12b~~~~ Political Difficulty: High ~~First let’s look at tax revenue (except GST & SST which have been covered before). According to 2019 Budget[52] :Personal and corporate tax rate remain virtually unchanged; corporate rate for first RM500k reduced from 18% to 17% –a minor benefit for small businessesThe much speculated capital gain tax for shares and inheritance tax are not introduced, although not ruled out in the future – I believe such taxes will be counterproductive, causing capital to flee to regional financial centers like Hong Kong or Singapore. Estate tax has been abolished in HK (in 2005) and in Singapore (in 2008) in their competition to become wealth management centers for the region.Soda tax introduced – Besides the revenue, it will be good for general public health, and perhaps helping to reduce public health spending in a very small way. Although removing sugar subsidy works even better, I think it is politically infeasible right now.New airport levy for international departure – At RM20 ASEAN, and RM40 outside, I don’t think it will deter foreign tourist arrival. With about 50m international passenger movement a year, the expected revenue is just a few hundred million. But it will pay towards airport capacity expansion.Real property gain tax in sixth year onwards increased from 0% to 5%; higher for non-residents -- It’s probably unfair for long term house owners who is tax for inflation effect. But I can’t see economic harm like hurting housing sales10% casino duty hike to 20% for VIP and 35% for mass segment respectively – The quantum of hike caught market by surprise. While bad for Genting Malaysia shares, it probably contributed extra RM1b to government. (As comparison, casino tax is 5%-15% in Singapore, 38%-39% in Macau)Not much surprise is actually good news, such that business and middle-class consumers confidence is not affected.2019 budget sees the national oil company Petronas coming to rescue again. Petronas will pay a special dividend of RM30b to the government to fill the fiscal hole created by abolishing GST and various past scandals including 1MDB.[53] The good thing is the consensus among financial analyst is Petronas could absorb this one-off dividend.A long-standing concern is petrol revenue is unstable, besides oil industry seems to be in secular decline and Malaysia oil & gas will deplete eventually. Petroleum related revenue contribution has fluctuated greatly between 14.6% (in 2016 when oil price crashed) and 41.3% (during 2009 commodity boom), and now at 30.9%.[54]In the long run, Malaysia government should set up a professionally managed, independently run petroleum revenue stabilization fund like Norway.[55] It could provide countercyclical support to government finance at time of stress. However, this remains a pipedream until the day when Malaysia politics becomes matured. Otherwise even if PH government adheres to the rules, what stop UMNO or PAS from raiding the fund when they come to power?Overall I think PH government deserves good mark in not upsetting businesses with populist tax policy (other than GST), showing some innovation in finding new sources (like soda tax), and pushing for other policies (as covered under other sections) to support the economy.What is the potential extra government revenue from a higher and sustainable economic growth? GDP growth since 2011 fluctuated between 4.2% (2016) and 6.0% (2014), and now at 4.7% (2018). Assuming the right set of economy policies and reform could increase future growth rate by a sustainable 1%:Estimated 5-year gain in government revenue of extra 1% increase= RM236b (2018 revenue) * 1% * 5 years= RM12bOf course, the political challenges in pushing through necessary reforms, as covered under various other headings, will be great.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Government-Linked Companies (GLC) Reform~~ Right Economic Direction: 0 (from -5 to 5) ~~~~ Potential 5-Year Economic Gain: order of RM100b~~~~ Political Difficulty: High ~~Facts:[56]Malaysia ranks fifth in the world among countries with highest State-Owned Enterprises presence among their large firms.[57]GLC employs about 5% of national workforceIt accounts for 36% and 54%, respectively, of the market capitalization of Bursa Malaysia and the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite IndexOne estimate put the number of GLC’s at 68,000! At federal level, they are controlled mostly through seven giant Government-Linked Investment Companies (GLIC), namelyMinister of Finance (Incorporated) [MOF (Inc.)]Khazanah Nasional Berhad (Khazanah)Employees Provident Fund (EPF)Lembaga Tabung Haji (LTH)Armed Forces Fund Board (LTAT)Retirement Fund (Incorporated) (KWAP)Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB)Many GLC’s were created to facilitate a new class of Bumiputera entrepreneurs – by first promoting GLC, and next divesting to those entrepreneurs.[58] However, the evidence in creating self-reliant and independent Bumiputera entrepreneurs so far has been patchy.Although many GLC’s are professionally run and well managed, their dominance has negative implications to the nation economy:Crowding out private investment[59] – GLC’s enjoy preferential treatment like benefiting from government procurement, state-backed guarantees. Research by Menon and Ng (2017) found evidence that private sectors are reluctant to invest in sectors dominated by GLC.Potential sources for fraud and corruption – One example is Felda Global Ventures (FGV) Holdings which squandered billions in questionable acquisition.Potential political abuses – When meeting Donald Trump in 2017, Najib offered to get Malaysia Airlines, which was supposed to reduce unprofitable routes, to buy Boeing aircrafts to make “America great again”!Cost of government bailout for failed GLC – RM1.5b for Proton in 2016, RM6 for Malaysia Airlines in 2014The potential economic gain from a well-planned, well executed GLC reform, without succumbing to vested interest, will be enormous.The value of listed GLC in Bursa Malaysia is about 36% * RM1,700b (total market capitalization[60]) = about RM600b. It is not inconceivable if non-listed asset held under GLIC is of similar size – which should include investments in private equity, hedge funds, real estate, money market and debt instruments.With a net asset of ~ RM1 trillion (need to net off liability e.g. to EPF holders), a potential gain of say RM100b through disposal and reinvigorating private investment is not unreasonable.What is the current progress of PH government in GLC reform? We know thatFinance Minister Lim Guan Eng has vowed to sell “non-critical, non-strategic” assets to pay down the country debt. He said that government must take a reduced role in the private sector to stop crowding out businesses that would otherwise have strong potential.[61]A notable action was taken in Nov 2019, where Malaysian sovereign wealth fund Khazanah disposed 16% of equity stake in IHH Healthcare to Japan’s Mitsui for RM8.42b (USD2b). Transacted at RM6 per share, the price is viewed as fair by the market.[62]A long list of GLC board and management members appointed by previous government have been replaced. One notable replacement is the much-respected former central bank governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz was appointed as group chairman of PNB, one of the seven giant GLIC. However, the quality of overall replacement has yet to be seen.[63]There is worry that it will be business-as-usual. For example, Prime Minister Mahathir has appointed himself as Chairman of Khazanah to much criticism, for this is a continuation of past practice.[64] Some political appointment to the GLC has also courted controversy.It is not yet clear whether and how the new government is going to push for genuine GLC reform; and how to ensure further divestment of GLC assets in a transparent manner at fair market price instead of enriching cronies as in the past.To dispose the assets in an orderly manner, PH government could consider the experience of HK government, which set up the Tracker Fund to dispose the massive portfolio of shares acquired during market intervention in 1998.[65]However this is also a pipedream as such scheme will come under extreme political opposition it is unclear how it could be compatible with “facilitating a new class of Bumiputera entrepreneurs”. Any attempt, even though it is for a more efficient economy and is for the national good, is just an invitation for UMNO to be back in power.Nonetheless, the GLC management has not turned for the worse under PH, just that there is lack of clarity and determination for reform. Selective, non-strategic asset disposal to pare down national debt is the best that can be hoped for.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~What do economic data, stock market, forecasters, rating agencies tell us?Enough of studying individual policy or initiative. Let’s look from a different angle of economic statisticsFirst a few words on the limitation and uses:Monthly and quarterly data like inflation and GDP growth rate reflect the past but not the future. However, the data does show the effect of PH government policy in the recent months.Longer term data like index on Ease of Doing Business, approved FDI mostly reflect past effort of former BN government. However, policy continuation by the PH government plays a part.Forward looking data based on stock market index, business and consumer survey, rating agency and IMF forecast are by definition uncertain. But they are the consensus judgement by market and economists on Malaysia future economic prospect.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Short term, backward looking data: GDP growth rate, inflation[66]PH come to power in Q2 2018. Malaysia economy continues to grow steadily in Q3 and Q4 of 2018, despite the headwinds of external environment like the growing US-China trade tension and weak commodity price.As mentioned earlier, there was a one-off decline in inflation during the second half of 2018. As a result, inflation retreated from 3.8% in 2017 to 1.0% in 2018.Although inflation is expected to pick up in 2019, it is expected to remain moderate.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Longer term, backward looking data – Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Ease of Doing Business, Index of Economic FreedomLatest data from MIDA shows Malaysia recorded RM64b of approved foreign investment in 9-month to 2018, which is more than double of RM54b in full year 2017.[67]Approved manufacturing investment by China also accelerated from RM4b in 2017 to RM16b in 9M2018, refuting theory that China is punishing Malaysia for cancelling Belt & Road Initiative projects like ECRLOf course, FDI is volatile[68] , and credit but be given to past BN government effort in wooing foreign investors. The recovery in FDI does show foreign investors, including China, are comfortable investing in Malaysia under the new PH government.[69]Recently Malaysia advanced nine places to 15th spot among 190 economies worldwide in the World Bank’s Doing Business 2019 Report.[70]The index published by American Heritage Foundation places Malaysia on 22nd among the world 180 economies measured, and 6th among the 43 Asian Pacific countries.I’ve written about it here → John Chin's answer to Is Malaysia a capitalist country?~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Forward looking data – Stock Market, Consumer Confidence Survey, IMF Forecast, Rating AgencyStock market is said to lead the economy by 6-12 months, although it’s also a noisy signal which means it is not always reliable.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI, the index made up of 30 largest companies on Bursa Malaysia, has seen about 10% correction since GE14.Stock price in selective sectors have been depressed due to the new government pro-competition position (telecommunication sector), rationalization of major infrastructure projects (construction sector), and casino tax (gaming sector). But consumer sector has been doing very well.However, comparing against regional stock market indices during the period since GE14, KLCI (purple line below) has outperformed Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (green line) and Singapore STI (pink line), although it has underperformed against Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index (grey line).(Note: Exchange rate effect is not considered, since 2%–4% exchange rate difference on less than 10% stock performance difference translate into a net effect of less than 0.5%. BTW short term Malaysia Ringgit movement is heavily influenced by US interest rate and crude oil price. That’s why I leave exchange rate analysis out)The overall Malaysia stock market correction is actually in line with regional market. They are all responding to the less favorable global conditions.The recent stock market correction does not seem to provide indication of whether PH government is inferior or superior.[71]The survey has shown the change in government has given a strong boost to consumer confidence that has been languishing for the past few years, although the euphoria has since worn out. But confidence is still higher than before GE14.[72]GDP growth – Stable growth between 4% to 5% expected ahead (2018 actual was 4.7%). Expected Malaysia economic growth looks respectable compared with regional peers.Unemployment – Forecast is trending lower to below 3%The latest opinion issued by three major rating agencies:S&P keeps Malaysia's rating at A-, Outlook stable (Jun 2019).[73]Fitch Ratings affirms Malaysia rating at ‘A-’, outlook stable (Aug 2018).[74]Moody’s affirms Malaysia's A3 ratings, maintains stable outlook (Dec 2018).[75]The stable outlook remains unchanged despite forecasted fiscal deficit of 3.7% GDP in 2018 and 3.4% in 2019. The endorsement of rating agency is based on the economic growth potential (debt to GDP ratio will continue to decline as GDP growth outpaces debt growth)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ConclusionNews headlines, social media and one’s political opinion often prevent a person from arriving at sound economic judgement. There are many naysayers, but there have been short of facts and analysis to prove their point.Together with individual policy analysis, the various economic indicators have also painted a picture of resilient economy under the PH government, despite the poor fiscal state inherited from the previous government. Although there are external headwinds, Malaysia economy is expected to perform as well, if not better than neighboring countries.Yes, Malaysia economy is heading to the right direction under this new government (PH).Footnotes[1] Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Harapan, and Parti Sosialis Manifesto Comparison[2] Department of Statistics Malaysia Official Portal[3] Malaysia inflation rate 2010-2022 | Statista[4] #HearMeOut[5] https://www.nst.com.my/news/nati...[6] Half of Malaysians earn below RM2,000 a month[7] Guan Eng: TRX project has been detoxified[8] Turkey Of The Year: Mismanagement at FELDA and FGV[9] The Australian building that made almost $20m for corrupt Malaysians[10] Tabung Haji paid dividends using depositors' savings — report[11] Tabung Haji completes transfer of unperforming equities to SPV[12] Scorpene scandal: Graft investigators reopen case involving Najib and Razak Baginda - Nation | The Star Online[13] MACC: Rosmah, Rizal to face charges related to Sarawak solar power project tomorrow | Malay Mail[14] 4% cut for Pan Borneo Highway Sarawak cost, RM660mil saved - Business News | The Star Online[15] https://www.nst.com.my/news/nati...[16] Final price of LRT3 reduced by 47% to RM16.63b, says Guan Eng - Business News | The Star Online[17] The MRT3 Rail Project Has Been Cancelled[18] Malaysia, Singapore ink agreement to defer high-speed rail project for 2 years; KL to pay S$15m for suspending work[19] MoF reveals RM9.4bil gas pipeline scandal - Business News | The Star Online[20] Jomo: No need for ECRL, just take a flight - Nation | The Star Online[21] RM100b ECRL should be scrapped[22] Third national car? Malaysians unsure about it, survey shows | Malay Mail[23] PROTON, Khazanah, Malaysia Incorporated and Harapan Prime Minister[24] Proton, Khazanah, Malaysia Inc and Mahathir[25] https://www.nst.com.my/news/nati...[26] Budget 2017 Promises Double The Internet Speed For Half The Price[27] https://themalaysianreserve.com/...[28] Petition calls for "unbiased" communications minister | SoyaCincau.com[29] https://www.change.org/p/prime-m...[30] Malaysia - Fixed broadband Internet subscribers[31] Termination of four IPP projects could save RM1.26bil in electricity tariffs, says Minister - Nation | The Star Online[32] Tenaga gets green light to continue with ICPT till year end[33] Cover Story: ‘I am looking at empowering the consumer’[34] Top 10 Major Export Products, 2018[35] Palm Oil | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News[36] EU heading for ‘zero palm oil’ in transport by 2021[37] European Palm Oil Alliance[38] Sustainable palm oil certification mandated in Malaysia[39] Teresa Kok: Govt to stop oil palm expansion, maintain forest cover | Malay Mail[40] https://www.nst.com.my/business/...[41] Malaysia and China ink deal to produce palm oil-based products[42] Malaysia reviewing palm oil export duties[43] NGO calls for halt on logging near Mulu national park[44] Sarawak government needs to resolve issue of oil palm plantation development near Mulu Park — Kok[45] US-Sino trade friction: not all a lose-lose outcome for Asia[46] MITI FTA[47] Malaysia won’t be pressured into CPTPP: trade minister[48] ‘Devastating consequences’ if Malaysia ratifies CPTPP, says group against trade pact[49] http://www.treasury.gov.my/pdf/b...[50] http://www.treasury.gov.my/pdf/b...[51] Malaysia committed to implementing accrual accounting standard[52] Budget 2019: Budget 2019 highlights[53] https://www.nst.com.my/business/...[54] http://www.treasury.gov.my/pdf/b...[55] The fund[56] http://www.ideas.org.my/wp-conte...[57] State-owned enterprises in the global economy: Reason for concern?[58] Taming Malaysia’s GLC ‘monsters’[59] Political preference crowding out enterprise in Malaysia[60] http://www.bursamalaysia.com/mis...[61] Government not meant to be in business, says Guan Eng | Malay Mail[62] Japan's Mitsui Makes $2 Billion Bet on Asian Hospital Growth[63] Zeti apppointed PNB group chairman, takes over from Wahid - Business News | The Star Online[64] Dr M defends his appointment as new Khazanah chair[65] History of the Fund[66] Monthly Highlights and Statistics in December 2018[67] Facts and Figures[68] Malaysia Foreign Direct Investment | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar[69] http://www.doingbusiness.org/con...[70] 2019 Index of Economic Freedom[71] Malaysian Institute of Economic Research[72] Download entire World Economic Outlook database[73] S&P keeps Malaysia's rating at A-, Outlook stable[74] Fitch affirms Malaysia rating at ‘A-’, outlook stable - Business News | The Star Online[75] Moody's affirms Malaysia's A3 ratings, maintains stable outlook

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