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Communication Decree 92005  Form

Communication Decree 92005 Form

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While the risk meter gives a high-level view of the security of supply risk for the next few months, the System Operator also publishes more detailed reports on our website. One of our most important graphs is the Hydro Risk Curve graph. Let’s see how this is built up, and what it means. This line shows New Zealand’s current hydro storage level, measured in stored electrical power, or gigawatt hours. This line shows the mean hydro storage level. These curves indicate our chance of electricity shortage. Lets see how these curves are calculated. Current hydro storage level by itself doesn’t have any predictive power. So how do we forecast future hydro storage? We do this using a complex model of today’s power system. This model makes assumptions based on the factors we looked at earlier, as well as historical inflows and a whole bunch of assumptions around future events and behaviour. For example, imagine that after today it rained in exactly the same way for the rest of the year

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