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Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 5, pp. 2032 - 2045, 2005 ASSESSMENT OF ROAD SAFETY IN THE ASEAN REGION Ricardo G. SIGUA Associate Professor Department of Civil Engineering University of the Philippines Apacible Street, U.P. Campus Diliman, Quezon City 1101 Philippines Tel/Fax: +63 (2) 929-0495 E-mail: rsigua@mozcom.com Hilario Sean O. PALMIANO University Extension Specialist National Center for Transportation Studies University of the Philippines Apacible Street, U.P. Campus Diliman, Quezon City 1101 Philippines Tel/Fax: +63 (2) 929-0495 E-mail: hopalmiano@up.edu.ph Abstract: The paper discusses the issues and concerns of the 10 ASEAN countries regarding road safety. Recognizing the potential threat of traffic accidents predicted as the 3rd ranking cause of mortalities by 2020, the WHO in April 1, 2004 declared the World Health Day with Road Safety as its theme. Also, it has been recognized that while road safety situation in developed countries is improving, the problem seems to be worsening in the developing ones. Among the ASEAN, a number of countries have managed to limit the casualties on the road. However, some emerging member countries which are experiencing rapid motorization largely due to increase in motorcycles are having serious problems. The paper analyzes the major causes of accidents and trends in number of casualties based on population, GDP and vehicle registration, identifies the most vulnerable road users, and presents the respective member country’s estimates of the cost of accidents. Key Words: road safety, traffic accidents, cost of traffic accidents 1. INTRODUCTION One undesirable reality that comes with development is increase in traffic accidents concomitant with increased motorization and infrastructure. The present world scenario depicts that traffic accidents claim approximately two human lives every minute. Even on the backdrop of rampant underreporting, the number of traffic related deaths annually worldwide has exceeded the million mark, around 70% of which occurs in those countries which the World Bank classifies as low or middle income ( Lamm, et al, 1999). This apparently worse scenario among developing countries like most ASEAN countries may be explained in that priorities are geared toward efforts for infrastructure development, on improving mobility and addressing the need for a better public transportation system. Concerted efforts to ensure road safety then takes a back seat (Sigua, 2000). While the problem of road safety is improving in developed countries, the situation seems to be getting worse in developing ones. The very high growth rate of vehicles in the ASEAN countries has compounded the problem of road safety. Figure 1 shows the trend of motorization in ASEAN countries. In the case of the Philippines, the volume of vehicles has more than doubled in the past 10 years (1.88 million in 1992 and 4.19 million in 2002). Once merely a status symbol, owning a car has become a necessity due to the inadequacy of public transportation services and the deterioration of the environment caused by pollution. In other countries, the large volume of motor vehicles is attributed to the rapid increase in the number of motorcycles. 2032 Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 5, pp. 2032 - 2045, 2005 Vehicle Registration 30,000,000 Brunei Darussalam 25,000,000 Cambodia Indonesia 20,000,000 Lao P.D.R. 15,000,000 Malaysia 10,000,000 Myanmar Philippines 5,000,000 0 1996 Singapore 1998 2000 2002 Thailand 2004 Vietnam Year Figure 1. Growth in Number of Motor Vehicles in ASEAN Countries (Source of Data: ASEAN Region Road Safety Strategy and Action Plan, 2004) Figures 2 and 3 show the trends of some socio-economic indicators in the ASEAN Region. In Figure 2, the positive growth in GDP has become prominent from 1998. The population in each country has been increasing at almost the same pace of roughly 2% per annum (see Figure 3). GDP (million US $) 250000 Brunei Darussalam Cambodia 200000 Indonesia 150000 Lao P.D.R. Malaysia 100000 Myanmar 50000 Philippines 0 1996 Singapore 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year Thailand Vietnam Figure 2. GDP Growth in ASEAN Countries (Source of Data: ASEAN Region Road Safety Strategy and Action Plan, 2004) Population x 1000 250000 Brunei Darussalam Cambodia 200000 Indonesia 150000 Lao P.D.R. Malaysia 100000 Myanmar 50000 0 1996 Philippines Singapore 1998 2000 Year 2002 2004 Thailand Vietnam Figure 3. Population Growth in ASEAN Countries (Source of Data: ASEAN Region Road Safety Strategy and Action Plan, 2004) 2033 Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 5, pp. 2032 - 2045, 2005 In the case of the Philippines (see Figure 4), the population presently stands at about 80 million and is growing at a rate of 2.2% annually. The gross domestic product (GDP) is also increasing at about 5.5% annually while the total number of vehicles is fast increasing at the rate of 4.4% 30 GDP Growth, % 25 20 Vehicle Registration 15 10 Population 5 0 98 99 00 Year 01 02 03 Figure 4. Growth of Population, GDP, and Vehicle Registration (Philippines) 2. PROBLEM OF UNDER-REPORTING TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS Given the growth rates in all the factors, which increase the potential for road accidents and based on the experience of most developing countries with similar trends, it is very likely that casualties on the road should also increase over the years. However, this increase is not reflected in our reported road traffic accident statistics as collected and collated by the Philippine National Police. On the contrary, the trend in road accident deaths appears to be decreasing as shown in Figure 5. No. of Fatalities 10000 8000 6000 Police 4000 Health 2000 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year Figure 5. Number of Fatalities on the Road as Reported by the Police vs. the Health Sector It is recognized by all (including the Police) that because of the different agencies involved and different jurisdictions, there is a serious problem on the underreporting of traffic accidents by the police. An efficient road accident data system is simply not yet available in the Philippines. Moreover, hospital records are not reconciled with that of the police. Within the same period, the estimates of deaths due to vehicular accidents based on statistics from the health sector are also shown in Figure 5. Up until 1998, the health sector used to compile statistics on deaths attributed to road traffic accidents (data are available for 1970, 1980, 1990 and 1998). In 2003, a UNICEF-funded study entitled Philippine National Injury Survey was 2034 Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 5, pp. 2032 - 2045, 2005 conducted. This study revealed the seriousness of underreporting of traffic accidents in the country. Based on the study, about 9,500 fatalities could be attributed to road traffic accidents in 2003 (Lim-Quizon, et al, 2004). For the same year (2003), the police only reported about 900 fatalities. This problem of under-reporting is expected to be more serious for the other types of accidents, namely, injuries and property damage only accidents. The situation in the ASEAN region is shown on Table 1. The estimated figures were based on sources other than the police, the most relevant of which was the records from the health sector. As far as the number of fatalities is concerned, serious problem of underreporting is seen in Indonesia and the Philippines. Table 1. Record of Road Accident Fatalities and Injuries in ASEAN Countries (Source of Data: ASEAN Region Road Safety Strategy and Action Plan, 2004) Country Reported by Police Fatalities Injuries Estimated Fatalities Injuries Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam 28 824 8,761 415 6,282 1,308 995 211 13,116 11,319 645 6,329 13,941 6,231 46,420 9,299 6,790 7,975 69,313 20,400 28 1,017 30,464 581 6,282 1,308 9,500 211 13,186 13,186 1,273 20,340 2,550,000 18,690 46,420 45,780 774,000 9,072 1,529,034 31,000 Total 43,259 187,343 75,763 5,025,609 3. VULNERABLE USER GROUPS % Who Ends Up in Hospital 3.1 Pedestrians Based on the study of traffic accident victims using hospital data in Metro Manila in 2001, the very young people (below 15 years old) would fall under the most vulnerable age group(Figure 6). This age group represents 36% of the total population of the country (Vibal, 2003). 30 25 20 Fatal 15 10 Seriously Injured 5 0