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hello welcome back to Min Network this will probably be one of the last videos that we do of 2024 and I'm pleased to say that we've managed to to bring on Alistair McCloud Economist who runs a substack at alist McLoud Alistair good to have you on very much my pleasure thank you for asking me I obviously we did a video with um Dominick frisbee a couple of months ago and that was extremely popular the I think since then A lot's changed around the world and I wouldn't mind really just getting a bit of a on your take on that um since that video and then also a little bit more into your thoughts of 2025 but before we do that I I I was I was actually on YouTube earlier today looking through a few of your old videos and one from 13 years ago popped up where you were on gold money and you were talking about the relevance of sound money and essentially this Keynesian approach that has really decimated a lot of the wealth of the middle class in the UK or around the world and it it it shocked me that really things haven't really changed a lot in the last 13 years have they no they haven't I mean the thing that's interesting as to your point is that um if you read the Austrian economists particularly uh Von misis um hiek as well uh you can see that um you know they've been predicting what we're now going through for a long time as inevitable unless there's a change of policy and um you know Von mises wrote his Human Action I think back in about 1950 or you know so so it yeah I mean um I think the lesson is never underestimate the ability of the establishment to put off the inevitable but there does come a time when kicking down the can down the road you know it doesn't work anymore and I think actually we are getting extremely close to that it feels like it doesn't it and I guess that's a reflection of the gold price in a way is is that I think not the game's up but we we we're Dangerously close in terms of the amount of inflation that there is and the amount of printing of money that we've seen in the last couple of years sure surely that that well like I said that that surely just reflects really where we are with gold today yeah it it does um but in if you like slightly indirect way because um gold has been basically bought by Asians and central banks so the central banks I think are clearly signaling that there's something wrong with the world of fat um but uh you know the the population uh investors um have been ignoring it in the west I mean you you just look at the you know mining shares and all the rest of it um you there's very little interest in it I mean okay they've recovered somewhat but they're nowhere near the potential that the sector has um and as far as gold is concerned really uh it's yet to be bought by um the West I mean it's only what a couple of months ago that um the ETFs you know physically backed ETFs um started sort of instead of being sold off started recovering a bit um you know I'm the fascinating thing about running a substack is you do get a feel for um if you like the sort of the Public's uh attitude and particularly the Western Public's attitude towards towards gold they just haven't bought it they don't understand it and the key to it is that they don't understand the difference between money legal money which is gold and credit which includes currencies and um you can't blame them really because um we have had what 50 odd years of propaganda from the US Treasury that um you know the dollar is the new money and gold is out of the system so there is a huge education job to be done and I think unfortunately events are now beginning to overtake any education process that I can inject into things so yeah I mean it's um so as to your point about gold beginning to reflect um the risks if you like in in credit that is undoubtedly true but this hasn't been driven by the users of the credit it's more being driven by central banks and also geopolitics really to a degree I think that's probably the best way to describe the Asian demand yeah it's it there's a lot of different factors obviously have an influence on the price of gold and and I think I could talk to to 30 different people within this space that commentate on this space and everyone will give me a different answer on what has the most impact in terms of whether it be GE geopolitics or or war or whether it be inflation or interest rates or or even even the strength of the US dollar um how how do you go about sort of assessing really what what makes a difference or are you more focused on this education or around sort of sound money um well it's I mean that that is obviously um in my outlet as it were but um I look at I mean I obviously look at what's going on in the markets um that's important I look at um the economics I look particularly at the moment at the way in which government debt is piling up and um virtually all the G7 governments with the single exception of Germany are in debt traps um and there is absolutely no willingness on the um politician side to actually deal with this as far as they're concerned um you know continue to spend uh we have got these projects we have' got these um you know these voters to satisfy whatever whatever and they actually just don't give much of a damn for the deficit I think in in the UK um the treasury actually is trying to impose some sort of discipline on the situation which makes an awful lot of sense but they're going about it the wrong way they're going about it by enhancing the public sector and destroying the private sector um and it's the private sector basically that pays the taxes at the end of the day so um you know when The Establishment gets it right it only gets it half right um but I mean look at France they you know the French government um has found it impossible to uh curtail their deficit and um you know I think they're they're heading for a 7% um deficit this year um if you look at uh um at the USA the deficit there I think is going to be greater I mean funnily enough we just had the first two months um uh uh deficit figures um for the current fiscal year because their fiscal year starts on October the 1st so October and November something like six Ian 690 billion I mean it is an absolute all-time record we're heading for a three trillion deficit there and the point about it I mean you mentioned that word inflation the point about it is that it's deficits which Drive inflation as well of course as um uh draw Downs in savings and uh um uh spending Finance by credit so um you know the the inflation game isn't over so you know that is another aspect which I really look at very very closely when it comes to trying to assess the outlook for gold um a lot of this it's I mean it's it's not just a sort of monetary approach I mean obviously you know if you print more money um you're going to dilute the purchasing power of that money um but there are offsets if you like so it's not an automatic thing but I think a point which nobody really understands is that with the F currency the fear currency only stands by the faith that its users have in it and it's that that's now being eroded and particularly if you look in in the case of the dollar foreigners earned something like $32 trillion worth of dollars and underlying um dollar denominated Financial assets I'm not including any sort of physical stuff in this um and uh they're now being asked to um you know stump up yet more at a time when uh you know global trade is actually diminishing it's diminishing because of you know tariff policies and we can see what Trump is going to do he's going to destroy the world economy with smooth Hy Mark I um and it's it's it's worse than smooth Hy mark one because smooth Hy mark one okay the um Americans were importing things like um you know uh food stuffs and so on and so forth which was you know a real problem for the farmers um but when they when they introduced those tariffs you know suddenly um uh Not only was it a huge expense on consumers on producers in America but but also uh you had tip Fort tit fortat par tariffs going the other way um and you know the world just went into into depression I mean the effect on the budget deficit is tax revenues will be considerably less than anybody expect and uh welfare expenses will be far higher so I think we're looking at a um a deficit for the current fiscal year in America of over three trillion I mean I would not be surprised to see that at all and that of course is destructive for the dollar and it's in a debt trap um so and I mean I think the point about it which again very few people just don't understand is that um when you get uh risk uh in uh credit um interest rates rise the cost of funding it rises I mean we saw this um in the UK in 1976 when we had um you know uh the medium dated uh uh uh guilts were issued with 15% plus coupons you know I mean that's actually where we're headed unless someone does something about it and that really does mean the collapse of the fear currency system so um the idea that uh gold um is forecasting this I don't think it's quite right I don't think um that's you know we're not at that point at all um and also people are looking at at it the wrong way way around in the west they they they regard gold as um you know as as an asset which you which you you you either buy you know you buy if it's going up and you sell if it's going down um but uh the reality is that what's happening is it's not gold going up I mean if you look at the purchasing power of gold over Millennia it's more or less hell steady um and um therefore um it's actually currenc is going down and that's the way to look at it and when people actually realize that prices are not Rising but their currency is going down then the currency is doomed and I wouldn't rule that development out in the foreseeable future in the next one or two years I mean obviously I hope it doesn't happen but I can't I can't see how they can get off this course unless there's a radical change in political thinking um it's quite a scary thought though isn't it and I guess it's probably a thought that you you may often get push back from just purely because of how frightening that that outcome would be um is there a scenario where you obviously look at this because I think obviously the UK is going down its path that it's on now for the next five years there won't be another election until 2029 so but it you know on a global sense it doesn't really make as much of a difference anyway to things like gold but obviously the US does have a very large influence on on the price of gold mostly because it's it's often termed in US dollar terms is is there failure of say for example we we we see the Trump Administration come in in January is there not an opportunity there with this dodge and this department of government efficiency and El mask and baras Swami coming in to slash the deficit are you because on one hand you've got the tar problem but on the other hand they are making the right sort of noises that people would like to hear about slashing deficits yeah but they don't have the political mandate to do it um I mean this is isn't like isn't like Melee in in Argentina um I mean he very definitely had a political mandate to take the the chainsaw to minist he won he won the popular vote though didn't he so you could you could probably say that that's a mandate in a sense well yeah but um you know he wasn't promoting I'm G to cut Public Waste I'm going to take a chainsaw to it um and uh so so he doesn't actually have the Mandate now this is desperately important because the permanent establishment knows this so they can challenge him whereas in Mill's case I mean you know certainly in in in the early days he would turn around to any civil servant and say look if you're not going to go along with this we'll have another election and and uh you know guess they knew that if he called an election on that basis who governs if you like um then you know he would just reinforce his majority so you know the establishment the Perman establishment in Argentina um were very much on the back foot and therefore had no basis for resisting M's policies that is not the situation in America you've got a permanent establishment which is well embedded not only that but if you look at the at Congress and also the Senate um everybody in there basically has vested interests pork barrel politics this is going to get in the way of any any reform uh that's likely to happen happen and as as far as doge is concerned I mean I have enormous respect for Elon Musk um but really as a private sector operator uh he's going into an area which um is going to be almost impossible for him to deliver uh and uh I mean if you're going to you know do that sort of job it's something that you've got to do patiently and it's something which you've got to do very very politically neither of those uh qualities I would ascribe to Elon Musk I mean you know he he goes in there and he deals with things like bang bang bang you know this is not one of those situations I actually think um and I've said this in other interviews I actually think that elong musk and uh vivec what's his name yeah um I think I think Doge will probably last six months if that um and I think they will give it up as a as a hopeless job well I think it's intended only to last until 2026 because the idea is to do a Twitter style Max mass x of 80% well maybe not 80% but a lot of a lot of Staff within it will be given two years to to gain other skills find other jobs and then and then they're gone um it's not going to happen it's not going to happen I mean we had our Dominic Cummings who wanted to reform the whole thing what happened he was out in his ear um you know the establishments way of dealing with these things and you know whether it's picking up on you know something which he's done in the past or something you know something which is um you know is perfectly acceptable in the private sector but actually is a no no in the public sector I mean he's holding a hostage to Fortune I really do think so okay all right so that in in your view that isn't going to be the Saving Grace of of what could potentially delay or or even reverse this trend that we're seeing in in terms of national debt yeah um you spoke about the tariff situation there um how did we see a relationship between gold and tariffs last time when we saw the China trade War obviously gold was I think when Trump first came in it was in the low thousands of dollars obviously by the end of these Administration it was it was in the 2000s a lot of that was derived from covid as well though right could could you could you say that any of that we did see a bit of an increase up to 1600 I think um before covid some of which surely would have been attributed to the trade War does does trade War 2.0 essentially mean stronger fundamentals for gold um well I think I mean the point about covid was that there was massive massive um budget deficits on the back of it so in that sense um I think that um it helped Drive the relationship between the dollar and gold and indeed other currencies in Gold um but if you look back to um the smooth hly experience which I think is actually where we're going the difference obvious difference is that we were on a gold standard then but we're not now um we're on a gold standard at $20.67 to the Y what happened was that um we you know the dollar was driven off a gold standard and they refixed it after a 40% devaluation uh you know which is something that still rankles with people but uh um you know I mean the the problem is that uh you know at the end of the day uh what government uh really needs or feels it needs or believes it has to have um is a devaluation of the currency in order to deal with the situation and I have no doubt I mean one of the other things about um uh you know the relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit is unless there's a swing in savings uh like an increase in savings then your budget def deficit is going to feed into a trade deficit so the idea that these tariffs are suddenly going to do wonderful things uh for the trade deficit I mean well it could well help but if it does help it'll help on the basis that prices uh domestic prices in in the US have been driven far Higher by those tariffs themselves and um so you know where's inflation inflation is still in the system I mean you know that's what they call inflation um I would actually call inflation I I think inflation is a bit of a misnomer for the whole thing because really what we're looking at is a loss of purchasing power for the F currency but you can see that there is enough um going wrong for um f currencies really to suffer hugely in terms of their purchasing power in 2025 and there is a further point which I I think is desperately important and people don't realize this we are in the biggest credit bubble that the world has ever seen and it's a coordinated credit bubble and the point about credit bubbles is that the vast majority of people don't actually realize they're in one until it bursts which is roughly where we are and the reason this is the biggest ever is that we have had successive credit bubbles being rolled into the next one and then rolled into the next one and rolled into the next one since 1980 um well just after but 198 since since really big big bang in London um and uh I I reckon there are about six credit bubbles which have all accumulated into one huge great tsunami of credit which when it breaks on our Shores um is going to do enormous damage so that I think is the prospects for next year unfortunately okay that's pretty bleak um anything that you are positive about what about obviously the idea that the if you are going to go down this tariff route you're going to and bring a lot of more jobs back to the US which is the plan you're going to need a week a dollar for for exports a we of dollar is a bit maybe a silver line in there for some some gold bugs a we of dollar might not be a bad thing well I don't know that we necessarily get a weak of dollar because the dollar is the king route of fear currencies um you know as my friend Steve hanky puts it is the least clean shirt uh so um you know I I think the other currencies are also doomed and you see the other thing we've got when you when the credit bubble bursts um you know we would we expect central banks to rescue the commercial banking system well they're all in negative equity themselves I you know apart from Bank of England which has got a guarantee um from uh the the treasury to to to cover any losses on QE um you know the fed the ECB the bank of Japan I mean they're all deep deep into negative equity and you know if these were private sector operations uh the directors the governors um whatever you like to call them would all be in jail but the reason they're not the reason they're not is that they're government entities or government controlled entities and um you know different rules apply but as far as the markets are concerned when a crisis happens and the crisis will happen these Banks are these central banks are not in a position really to credibly underwrite the commercial banking system and the only way the only outcome is that they will have to run in and buy government debt themselves in other words new rounds of QE which in quantities which we cannot imagine uh in order to try and rescue the system I mean I think you know I think I think in in America if you look at the zombie companies they're probably about 30 % of the total you know I hate to think where we are in the UK I mean some become look at T's water you know when when uh interest rates rise and properly reflect the cost of credit to a borrower um which will be ration severely rationed because you know what bank with an extended balance sheet in these days wants to um extend yet more credit um you know these these zombies are going to fall over it and it will start taking banks with them I mean this is this is um believe you me a very very dangerous situation is is there a risk of these Banks going with them though if they can just print money and and like say QE their way out of this is it not just a case that the individual will just see a loss of purchasing power which continues on and on and on and on well I mean this is this this is an inevitable consequence of of uh of QE um you know QE to fund uh um uh excessive government spending uh basically undermines the purchasing power of the currency and when foreign creditors get the idea that hold on there's no way this is going to stop you know they're going to dump it even more quickly this is why it's so important to realize that the valuation of um of O of f currency not only depends on its quantity and circulation but also the faith that their two parties have in in in the currency the first is the foreigners they're always the first to to tip the whole thing up and the second cohort if you like are the actual domestic users of a currency and um you get to a stage eventually where uh the domestic users finally realize that it's not prices going up but their currency going down now the moment the moment the majority of people actually understand that it's dead it's finished absolutely finished so um I would have hopes that we wouldn't actually get to that stage but don't ask me how we avoid it it's very very difficult is what about the idea that obviously in terms of dead and sovereign debt and bonds and whatnot it it obviously it's usually other countries that are that are obviously purchasing these and obviously you can have if if every country in the west is doing the same thing and they all know that each other are going to cons EAS their way out of it then there isn't that much risk there why wouldn't you carry on buying because you are guaranteed that you'll get your money back even if it is worth bit less yeah you get you get your money back it's like it's Venezuelan cueras yeah sure but if everyone's doing the same thing then relatively speaking it's yeah I mean this is it the thing Peter is that that that what we're looking at is the complete F complex has run out of Road and um you know I mean I've come across even Austrian economists who think the currencies are no longer just currencies they think they are money they' got it completely wrong they're still currencies because and the way to to know whether something is is credit or not is you know how is it represented in a balance sheet is there an obligation on the other side and if you look at any Central bank's balance sheet yeah you'll see that there's an obligation on the other side you know what what happens is that you know you deposit or whatever or the reserves or the currency in circulation in notes whatever um you know that's if you like on the liability side of a central bank balance sheet and it's backed up by whatever assets they have on the other side it must always balance um and so you've got the constraints of reality in this the idea that um you know somehow you can sort of fiddle your way around it is actually not the case oh look obviously this is if if this is the outcome that you're anticipating and obviously there's a very good argument for it there with obviously the amount of debt that that we're seeing across the west and the amount of QE that we've seen in the last few years is not sustainable what what's this what's the what do you I guess for those who want to subscribe to your suback and learn more about this what's the solution for those who believe believe this and and really really want to try and protect themselves well about the only thing you can do is protect yourself by getting out of credit and um getting into real money which is which is gold uh to a lesser extent silver silver isn't priced as money um and I think it would be a very brave person who would say that it is going to be priced as money um and I mean you know this is this has been money since Roman times I mean the Romans set this up in the 12 tables of 448 BC um and they produced their first coin at the time called the ice which spelled AE s which um was about I think it was about um 34 of a pound of of bronze but in in the 12 tables they made the distinction between final settlement which is payment in ice payment in um in those days actually gold wasn't wasn't on the list it was rarely bronze or silver um copper um that's final payment um and they made the distinction between that and a payment which is yet to be final so they they understood that there is a differ between money and credit and in fact I mean I think if anyone cares to rewrite the history of money the idea that you just go from Barter into money they've got it completely wrong because the Phoenicians were trading uh um a thousand years before Rome and they would have done it on credit I mean you need credit from someone um you know credit is everywhere it's not just in the banking system it's not just in the money supply numbers I mean if you you know you have a son you send him to to University you're saying son I will pay your University fees in other words you are giving credit to your son that you will actually cover his costs and he will take that credit and act ingly you know I mean also you know someone um painting and decorating your house you know they do the job first and then they come and say right we've done that I hope you're satisfied and here's my bill in other words he does the work on the you know and gives you credit to the extent that you will actually pay him at a future date you know the whole world works on credit people just don't understand this and it's this credit which unless you actually tie it to money in terms of its value has the risk of losing all its credibility and that is broadly the situation we're getting into I mean if you look at the going back to the the debt bubbles that governments are in um I mean we've we can see that uh US debt to GDP is around about 130 135% now what happens if um I'm right and we're in smooth Hy 2 or about to go into smooth Hy 2 uh then uh GDP is going to go down okay the purchasing power of each unit of GDP is also going down but GDP uh goes down and so what does that do to the ratio immediately you're looking at 150% debt to GDP G leg you know so it's not just the amount of debt it's also what's happening to GDP and um you know with with we we can see how uh deficits are going to continue we can see how not only America but you've got um uh Britain you got France you've got Japan you've got uh Italy you've got Spain um you know all the sort of G7 with the exception of Germany who's got other problems um is in a debt trap and falling GDP is going to make it considerably worse and this is going to impinge on the purchasing power of these currencies which are not attached to anything I mean the whole point about a gold standard was that you know you you you attach the value of credit to Gold so that the only risk in the credit is the counterparty risk that you have and the time preference risk um on uh let's say you know sort of you know loans of any duration so so this is an extremely important point to realize the credit that credit system we have is not anchored to anything it is therefore highly vulnerable to the sort of problems which we now face and by vulnerable I mean in terms of its purchasing power I can't see any solution to this unless there is an extremely radical change there is actually I mean you you asked a question a little while ago about um is there any hope sort of thing um buy gold obviously um which means selling credit incidentally you know you're not buying gold you're getting the hell out of credit uh but the other thing is that um contrary to Western propaganda uh the Russian and Chinese economies are actually in reasonable Nick I mean particularly the Russian one is extraordinary they've got 21% interest rates that's that's the overnight race at the uh Central Bank of Russia but what they're finding uh is that the the uh commercial banks are offering deposit rates of something like 18% what's happening is that uh the high wage uh Awards because there's a shortage of Labor um a huge demand for for for skilled labor in Russia anyone with a skill has been getting pay Rises of 20% plus you know and in some cases they've doubled over the last couple of years um they're saving so the result is that the rate of inflation is nowhere near uh the rate of wage inflation it's running currently at about 8% 8 and a half% I understand from um you know other analysts who sort of look at these things a lot more closely that that rate is rate of inflation is likely to rise but that's a sort of effect if you like of numbers dropping out of the back end you know all that sort of statistical statistical Malarkey um but you know look at Russia um do you know what the income tax rate there is 133% flat rate um it does go up to 15% if you're a high earner corporation tax I think is around about 25% which is sort of normal um and uh the debt to GDP that's currently less than 20% it was forecast um to be over something like 22% this year but um amazingly um Putin's government has managed to uh run um a slight uh um Surplus on on the budget despite all the war spending so the economy the Russian economy actually is in pretty good shape it could go onto a gold standard tomorrow and indeed I would suggest that the best thing it could do is go onto a gold standard at current rates and particularly when you look at the relationship between gold and oil being you know the principal export if you like um the average price of oil since the 1950s measured in gold is roughly 30 40% above the current level of gold this reflects if you like the fact that gold is rising um or appearing to rise uh uh you know because of monetary uh uh effects whereas this is not the case in in in Commodities they've yet to catch up but gold over a long period of time does it it is a broad representation if you like of of uh um the commodity complex so um you know this is a very good chance for for Putin to go onto a gold standard I think the the reason he doesn't is because the Chinese don't want to do it yet I think they realize that um they're going to have to do it at some stage India you know throws up its hands at the thought of this and um you know they've yet to rarely sort out the whole of the Shanghai cooperation Shanghai cooperation organization and Bricks complex in terms of monetary Affairs they're very much in a sort of intermediate situation but um we do know that China has got very substantial gold reserves in the government um not not just in the central bank but also in wealth funds and also um the uh the people's Liberation Army is a very large holder um we also know that Russian wealth funds have also got gold so the Russians have probably got about 12,000 tons they can go onto gold standards tomorrow um but the the reason that they won't is that they would immediately demolish the entire fit currency system around the world by comparison I mean it would really be as simple as that so um I think it's the sort of deliberate act which would be just short of a nuclear war but at some stage Peter they're going to protect themselves from a collapse in the purchasing power of the dollar and so that is I think what is going to drive them to protect their own currencies by putting them on gold standards um it's something that Putin's sort of brought up before isn't it uh going on to so it's not as if it's complete hyperbola it is something that he has mentioned and and has obviously vo vocalize um the I think he probably wants to get Ukraine and a peace agreement sorted before that um it would be my guess and I'd also Imagine China are quite happy with the system system as it is given that they're able to to essentially use cheap credit to to buy V waves of the Middle East and and Africa and uh that's sort of my view so I think you're right it might come at some point but surely it's not really in their interest at the moment well I would say um I'm not quite with you on that on that one um I think the the war in Ukraine is a different thing and again I would say that the only reason that they will go onto a gold standard uh deliber as an act of deliberate policy will be basically to protect their own currencies from a collapse of the Western Financial system I'm I'm not the only reason I disagree with that is because I think like you said before declaring a gold standard is nothing short of nuclear war you I don't think they're going to want to poke Trump before any agreements have be made around no I agree with that I agree with you entirely on that which is why I say it would be you know if you like to protect themselves um so it it is the end game of the fear currency system that will trigger them their move into that I mean they are in a position to be able to do it and I think that's you know so it is if you like a defensive yeah position but uh when it comes to the war in Ukraine um I think that's going to get settled on the battlefield um I you know the Trump's statement that you know we're can end this in one day is is complete hyperbole uh it's absolute nonsense and um I mean the very minimum that um uh uh Putin is going to require is to keep the eastern oblasts and also the Crimea and also to have um uh guarantees not only from um NATO but also from um uh the Ukraine itself uh that uh they will be entirely neutral and there will be nothing to do with NATO on its territory that I think is the very minimum um and uh I would think looking at Trump's team um I don't think that those terms would be acceptable to the Trump team no that that seems like a red line because obviously then there's nothing stopping yeah an invasion again so so it'll it'll you know it's it's going to be fought on the battlefield it'll be a complete defeat I'm afraid for the ukrainians okay in terms of changing topic again just for the last time I guess is looking into 2025 what what are you most looking out for in terms of indicators that your theories potentially might be coming true in terms of economic collapse um well I mean obviously look at budget deficits that's the real driver if you like for um currencies values look at interest rates um they're going to rise and I would suggest that if the US uh 10-year treasury rises above 4.75 five% yield uh then um you know that is going to collapse the equity markets that is a bubble plain and simple complete bubble um I don't really uh concern myself too much with the price of gold um for the reasons that I've stated that actually what we're looking at Is Not Gold going up if currencies going down I look at um this debt to GDP trap and uh I mean you know the rise in interest rates is going to really bring that on very very rapidly um I'm going to look for evidence if you like that um Financial assets um which have being fueled by the accumulation of bubbles into this big big one bubble which is going to break on our Shores like a tsunami um I'll be looking out for evidence of that um I'm not going to wait to to to uh um you know sort of see it before I go oh sell sell sell no I mean you know once it breaks you are stuck and um I think you know I think I think that the the the only answer basically um is to stack gold um you can buy mines because I mean one of the great things is that the you know Asia will survive this I me they'll go through difficulties but they will survive it I mean we think that China is entirely depend dependent on America for its export markets it's not it's now exporting more to Bricks Nations than it exports to America so it's actually making the switch away from dependency on the west um so you know the idea that um uh you know China is always sort of Trapped if you like and therefore we can do what we want to the Chinese is a huge huge mistake so um you know I'm going to watch that relationship quite carefully as well but I think the principal thing I see is um this uh uh um if you like this cycle of credit coming unstuck um and it's going to wipe out the collateral for the banks it's going to be very bad for the banking system um it's going to drive up interest rates and the extent to which um central banks sit on their interest rates or try and suppress them will merely undermine the purchasing power of the currencies even further I mean the it is if you like the point of classical economics um which has been overwritten for too long by macroeconomic um beliefs which have absolutely no basis in reality and that's where we are I mean this this Keynesian idea that governments can um you know manage the economy um all that rubbish is going to come to a sticky end and I think this you know it's it's actually quite rapidly approaching if I have a mistake it's usually I'm too far ahead of the curve on these things um I could be too far ahead of the curve on this I mean one of the phrases I said earlier is you know don't underestimate the government's ability to put off the inevitable um that uh you know could still well be true and of course the other thing is that populations don't want to see this so they will shut their eyes you know hear no evil see no evil and all that sort of stuff we're going to have that which could prolong this a little bit but whichever way this is actually coming we can see how the disaster is now is now evolving yeah I I I wish I wish I could say uh that um that that you were wrong and and me too wasn't going to happen um me I think you're right it is a case of timing um and how how long it can be put off for but you can't be running a deficit like this forever can you that's that's the Crux of it um no Alisa I really appreciate your time and I hope to get to see you again in 2025 that's very much my pleasure we'll see how 2025 pans out thank you very much thanks Peter