Can I Sign Oklahoma Banking Word

Can i industry sign banking oklahoma word online

welcome everybody to another episode if you will of the morning fuel for the petroleum Alliance we've got some great guests today I'll remind you that you guys are guys are watching their turn to that our panelists are turned off so please use the chat function to give us questions this is gonna be a little bit different than what we've been doing we've been doing a lot of informational and downloaded resources for for our folks today we're going to take a little bit more of a chat approach and I've got some great guests today that David Ramson would everybody probably knows him from from his link linked and oktake of the day and follow I follow him he's great it's wrote a great book what the f is wrong with everybody else what they didn't teach you in business school very excited about possibly getting some copies and distributing to or to our Trillium Alliance folks because it's a it's a good book we're gonna talk a little bit about from his standpoint we're gonna talk a little bit about you know what changed in his life there's a lot of people facing the the uncertain times and he's gonna talk a little bit about what propelled him a disc career now we also got an Ethan house everybody knows from energy dad he's our nobody knows on that Texas panel guy he's here in Oklahoma City it's got a great pulse on what I'm what the interested in working into this is the psyche of the marketplace as far as you know the pitch elation of sellers and where the buyers heads are right now so hey welcome guys I'm going to open up by getting given the drw a little bit of let him take the reins a little bit give it a little intro on overall market and then I let you can do the same and we're skit going on questions sure well I appreciate the opportunity to be here and today we're gonna take a little bit of a different tack than the beatdown that I've been giving industry for the last 18 months because honestly like that time has passed and now now is the time to think about the future so I'm gonna start with a story about 2012 that somebody you know but February 1st 2012 I went to work and I stay like every other else we just had a big kickoff for our 2020 budget we were running full two four rigs in the Bakken there'd been a big confrontation in December when we were going over budget that we were in the Bakken and I was suggesting that we shut down Canada because we were in the single greatest resource play that had existed in 2012 which was the Bakken and why were we ramping down rates when oil was $100 a barrel it made no sense I had some friction with my boss and at noon every day instead of spending time with my family or with friends or anything like that I would always go and relax by hitting golf balls at the driving range that was certainly close to downtown so I drove over I got a meeting request for organizational design at 4:30 on a Wednesday which if you've ever got that meeting request I'm gonna tell you they're not actually talking about organizational design they're planning on firing and so what I did was what everyone would do I declined the meeting request and I continued to hit balls for about 20 minutes and anyway they called and said hey when can you come in I said I'll be there in 20 minutes so when in got the 10 words nobody wants to hear thank you for your service you're no longer required and came home to my family who I had rejected for really the last six years of my career but you could argue maybe 12 I had two boys who were five and three mental healthcare we had no income we were living in a country that my wife wasn't familiar with and then my kids didn't know their dad and that was the toughest day of my life but it was also the best day of my life because I realized that my career doesn't define me and so the message for today is your career doesn't define you either is the other things that really matter so we're going to talk about that but that was the genesis of what made me write the book what ultimately led to one energy and then with the sale of one energy with what led to the hot take of the day so we'll talk about that but just a little introduction and for those online thanks so much for joining and appreciate the opportunity to talk to it are off even yeah Ethan house here thanks today for having me and drw good to see you and been heavy on here it's awesome should be a great chat and but with energy net we're a transaction advisor kind of operate and you know kind of zeroed you know 100 and you know 150 under 75 million range for me moved over to Oklahoma in 2012 started with energy net in 2002 right out of college something literally in my first job since college which has been been held a lot of fun so I've been fun growing it but yes that's kind of where it kicked off for me but like I said we're transaction by the markets been crazy obviously we can get into those as we go and just what you know kind of where things have been and what people are feeling and buckeye ago that with with drw because it's you know it's not what makes you but but kind of what you watch put out there in the efforts you put in and and trying to power through this weirdness that we've experienced over the last last couple of weeks so glad to be here and excited and appreciate everybody being on as well so all of us have had these inflection points in our career I had the not a similar circumstance where big changes were asked of me in 1994 date myself a little bit I'd spent about a decade with Texaco and they were shutting down office after office and finally they were consolidating all the offices in the city that I didn't live in and that's when I took my shot at basically said we'll give you once you've got J offered a job you weren't you're allowed to get the the program the severance program I went and talked to my boss about it they basically said you stay here and turn the lights off in Tulsa and we'll give you the Severinsen so I kind of looks like in a skeleton crew for you know months and months really and then then turn the lights out on the Tulsa office for Texaco and but again a Sickler situation that David was in you have to make I really didn't know that that check would cash they didn't have those little Texaco stars on it I did I basically did what a lot of people out there right now are thinking about doing is you know scaling back their housing selling the fancy car had a nice car I got a a nice car but it wasn't as nice as what I had I had a four-door Honda Accord didn't know anybody lived in a two-bedroom apartment and started my company on the my first company on the kitchen table just like everybody in this room and a lot of people that are on the call a lot of people had been had to have a very similar story to what drw disrelated and that's why one of the reasons why I wanted him on here is to tell that story into into so so that day I was I've been telling our folks over and over again such a resilient group of group of guys and gals that we can we can get through anything we've been through everything you could imagine and you'll find out they'll find a place though everybody to land somewhere oh that's so kind of leading into the questions you know just kind of broadly speaking either one of you can take this where do you see you know let's say tactical timeframe is the rest of this year and strategic is beyond that so just give us a rough tactical strategic look of what do you think the energy the energy industry is going to look like just a quick macro because I think I think a lot of people really want to compare now and I think the closest downturn was probably 1985 did the difference in my opinion in this particular time is if you go back to the world produces a hundred million barrels a day accrued when the lockdown was across the entire world China Europe United States Africa everywhere we were down probably thirty five million barrels a day Adam and so we produce a hundred and we only were consuming 65 which meant thirty five million barrels a day until May when OPEC said they would cut ten and the u.s. started reacting and if you follow me you know that March 8 was the day I wrote a post that said everything has changed because the Saudis have protected oil price forever we can talk more about that but just except on on that and the Russians were part of OPEC plus and once the Russian said we're no longer part of OPEC plus we're gonna act for ourselves and the Saudi said that's unacceptable we're gonna punish you and in the back of their mind they knew would punish the US instead of reducing supply to match China's demand they raised supply that broke apart OPEC and in my view that probably breaks apart OPEC for two to three years it took them until May to cut production by just 10 million barrels a day and US producers were saying one hedged but that meant they kept producing so we had 35 million barrels a day for between 30 and 60 days that we over produced as a planet which we've never done before what that has done is it puts a billion and a half barrels in storage in boats in tanks in all the places and those are owned by banks and financial players so the moment oil creeps out they're gonna sell those barrels back to the market and if you have a billion and a half barrels you can sell that back to the market at three million barrels a day for 500 days that will depress oil prices $12 a barrel less than it otherwise would have been had this been just the supply-demand like a supply shock not a demand shock so for the rest of this year we're gonna have to burn off all of that storage which means US production is cut which means US activity completions are effectively zero drilling is effectively zero and declines so that's what's different that we need to understand from the previous so even with that I'll turn it to you on adding context beyond the macro yeah just you know you would say I guess where we're concerned and what we're seeing obviously with the you know the March kind of seventh you know time OPEC you know etc we had deals that were that we're still continuing is that took place they you know a number of those cratered of course because you know you had buyers looking up all of a sudden that says we you know what do we do here this is unprecedented we don't know what where to where to go with with with picking these deals up and how to purchase it so once everybody sort of had that reset we had a few deals that still continue that we're still done but at very different numbers and so and we saw that I know it's been referenced in a number of deals whether it's all tomates or a few others where you know things went crazy and and they obviously couldn't didn't get those can get those across the finish line so moving forward we're we're concerned you know what we have seen is a mass quantity of buyer registrations of course because everyone feels like I think this is just a great time if you can't get a deal done if you're if you're finding them then you know you're probably going to get it at a great price and hopefully this will move ahead where drw is concerned on his outlook looking at that you know a couple year timeframe based on oil price and where that's gonna land remains to be seen but I what we're also you know seeing more of courses an uptick on the natural gas side just because it stayed relatively you know where it's been you know obviously it's been depressed for a long time so I think that what we're gonna see more of moving forward is probably more of a focus on the nat gas piece and picking up deals there yeah I'm just gonna share my screen if I can't here I hope this works can anyone see that can you should be like really colorful graph yes okay so I love I love to use this this graph just a really example if I could some people don't necessarily know but if you go back to 2008 this was really the birth of the Bakken before the Eagle Ford before the DJ before horizontal so this is a from shale profile analytics and this is the horizontal wells Shale wells in the United States and their growth this is a million barrels a day so obviously we went through the downturn in 2014 OPEC driven sort of we're gonna flood the market but it happened over a much longer period of time and then subsequent in 2016 some would describe this really as being a six year bear market but the difference was instead of using equity to drill we used debt to drill and so all of this growth so each of these represent wells drilled in a year so these are your 2017 wells these are year 2018 wells these are 2019 the takeaway from this graph is that of the 8.2 million barrels a day then the US produces from horizontal Shale wells so X Alaska X Gulf of Mexico X California from the Shale wells almost 4 million barrels a day is from wells that were on in the last 365 days so say again one third of oil production in the United States are from wells that were not on 365 days ago what that manifests as is this huge decline shape which is like 40 percent and the reason that people are now pivoting saying natural gas is where the good is is because the average oil well has a four to five thousand Geor if you take 4 million barrels a day of US oil out of the market because there's very little capital activity and we all know that that's what's happening you're gonna end up declining 20 BCF out of a hundred and ten BCF a day market which is 20% so gas goes from over supplied with lots of firm transporting capacity that was not being used in Appalachia to under supply and all those guys are gonna drill the hell out of it now it will take time for oil to decline and for this to manifest but that's why you see the gas strip is not a buck 75 12 months out it's more like 250 but it's why the oil strip is 35 out 12 months because there's all this global demand that gas just doesn't really experience that so when Ethan talks about the pivot from oil to gas you know obviously oil is not going anywhere and gas isn't going anywhere but oil barrels are cheaper to produce elsewhere in the world then they are in the u.s. in the u.s. we need 50 and the Saudis don't want 50 anymore because now they've actually thrown their punch in October in October 2014 it wasn't about the US because we didn't know the permian was the permian then what that was about was punishing Russia for the invasion of Crimea and so the OPEC was punishing Russia at the behest of the US government and Russia has weighed in six years including funding an C frat campaigns in the United States to punish the US and so in March when the global demand was a little bit weak Russia said now is our time to punish the US now we're going to do it and the Saudi said well this is the one-two punch we cannot go Russia and we can knockout us and now we can transform our economy which is why oil and gas are so different that's a decoupling story how range-bound do you think natural gas is to me again macro yeah the Marcellus in Haynesville have shown productivity improvements and generally ability to grow martinsville smaller so it will have less impact but there's a lot of guys in the Marcellus that can grow at 250 and when you look at guys like hantaro they were spending 250 million dollars a year in firm transport to pay for pipeline space they weren't using so at a buck 75 they can't drill because their fixed cost without drilling well as a buck 90 and 250 it now starts becoming very productive and so there will be times where gas goes to three or 350 Dave to answer your question because of winter or storage or pipe or disruptions etc but I think that really the gas will be 250 and so if you have natural gas assets that work of 250 today I think you're gonna be well positioned to take advantage of that and I think the decline in oil will also make room for more liquids where liquids prices have been depressed we're gonna have benefit there and then the last one is if my thesis is right that the u.s. declines four or five million barrel today in the next 18 months we're gonna need to import four to five million barrels more of light sweet crude which is all going to be coming from the Middle East or from areas like that which if there was already US consumers who hated oil to begin with the move to electric vehicles I think will accelerate now because there will be an an i Middle East anti-russia movement and a pro America make America great again build it here and power it here which natural gas can do so to me natural gas is the massive winner out of this and oil in the u.s. is the massive loser out of this I think that think directionally that's that's at that's accurate I do think that the what's up for grabs is the how long that's gonna take for that to happen that's the can we obviously we got a big we get a big scare and I'd like laughs you guys to comment on this we have a big supply chain scare I mean there's things that we should make here period pharmaceuticals PPE normal scarfing but but there are things that we need to make here and that that to me that puts natural gas you know things that have vertical natural gas we constantly talk to our legislature and our governor and our leadership here in Oklahoma about being a third world country where we ship our raw material off for people to add value in other states or other countries now yeah I want to make more things here and so if you were knowing what you guys I think in general all of us are thinking about the same way about the macro what are we what do we tell when we tell that guy that's guard girl that's it's a junior and at University of Oklahoma and charlie'll engineering where we tell Ethan you take down first man I I love this business so much the people are amazing and then probably that's more of anything is just the people because you look at how resilient this industry has been over the course of you know all the years that the air dubs been talking about me like 85 I think you were talking about I remember as a kid I mean again I was young but I mean this was what 88 or so when oil was 9 10 bucks a barrel you know and and you know living in Houston it was just obviously very depressing again your kids you be a very limited scope but you know but the people in this industry have been just so great and and and watching what's taking place through administrations through you know you know in spite of basically everything that's taking place we've done our best to sort of fight back so you know on the engineering piece it's a tough one I'll leave that one to to the engineers and I'll let the air/w kind of handle that or you Dave but as far as an engineering student not you know obviously I think there's some opportunity here depending on when you're in it we're gonna see a big shift in people leaving I know we've obviously seen that already with with just the layoffs but even just people just losing kind of faith in the industry and not wanting to have to deal with this every so often and how often are these dips gonna take place so granted I would like to say stay the course for those but but I'm gonna have to pitch it over to drw on the engineering piece what would you tell that person yesterday with a 20 year old who's going in to be a junior in his degree and and so Dave to your point how long does it last I mean I think that the the cycle of low prices and in my low I mean below 50 and I think that the u.s. really needs 50 to even compete for capital I think that that cycle is between 24 and 36 months depending on war and and what we know coming out of the coronavirus is that a lot of developing nations are going to be a lot poorer because they don't have the financial infrastructure to support their populace and so supply chain disruption and or fascists taking power with a military coup which then leads to geopolitical instability that we saw in the early 90s and through 2000 think is a risk so for students who are like juniors or sophomores you know I probably wouldn't take geology if I'm honest I probably wouldn't do land and the reason I say those is we already have so many professionals that are skilled at that that if you want an oil finder you're gonna go to a guy who's done it for 10 5 8 13 years and had training at a major and so as we start developing bumps in Nebraska or things in Kansas when oil comes back or things in Oklahoma old school geologists I think will be able to cope but as a new student I would not do geology for engineering what I told the kid yesterday was diversify and expect to do something in the chemical field and so if you could do downstream midstream chemicals manufacturing and build like B be open to different degrees or different industries because one of the things that made our industry so great wasn't what made our industry so great in 2000 in 2000 one major industry great was there was no hashtag me too so all the office parties were like full of moves and they were super fun because we all drank hard and partied hard but from 2008 to 2020 the reason our industry was fun was because there was so much capital and quite honestly not a lot of oversight relative to out the amount we were spending and so I think the industry will change and the people are what make it but other industries have great people too so I guess I wouldn't be fixated on being in energy because the big boom the big bull run that happened from Oh 8 to 14 we're in a bear market and it's gonna be hard to come out of it so our industry will be different much more cost control much more like coal or much more like manufacturing than it has been historically so that would be my sort of guidance to students and then for those who are in it don't be afraid to pivot there's no shame and in saying this was my part of my journey for now and now I'm on a different path and we'll talk about that later answer one of the things that that that is is true and has always been true the low cost low consequence it that if you though if you can produce like you just indicated earlier if you're a if you're a developer of natural gas resources and you make money at two dollars and fifty cents and you make a solid return you you're gonna you're gonna do well I think in this environment they absolutely one of the things that we keep telling our our young technical folks is is that we keep we keep telling them that this is a tech business this is this is the cutting edge the amount of dollars that flow in and out of this business just inherently lend themselves to trying to always try to build a better mousetrap for everything and so the technology that's going to be required the next one that that's probably a good segue into a question is what what is the next technology that's going to make a quantum leap you know quietly as we've been the whole big horizontal changed things like bit technology quietly helped us along here you know and and so there's a lot of subtleties that helped us but where do you what are you guys in that in a it's crystal ball time but where do you guys see looking out farther ten fifteen twenty five years from now what technologies are going to develop then will make this even even even more efficient on me sorry go ahead oh so dim I think it's it's a big question so the two things that I think really change over this natural gas you know they always say start a business with a moat that's that's Warren Buffett's phrase is what are the defense mechanisms that prevent other people from competing with you and on the natural gas side our modes is the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and when gas is 250 and we have a lot of it then it's very hard to put gas on ships and bring into the u.s. to compete so it is a domestic market now we were flooded with gas because of associated at oil gas and so we were looking to export six BCF a day and grow which made us compete with Qatar and Russia which is one of the reasons Russia was so anti frac and so into u.s. oil was they're the winners when we lose but natural gas has a moat so do we need technology for sure I do think that frac technology has gone pretty far I think that compression technology is probably going to be a big one and then how do we recompense I think those are gonna be some macro themes in the next 20 years on oil and again this is a big proposition but couldn't stick with me Saudi Aramco in public and they have a 53 year reserve life index and 10 million barrels a day so if they produce 10 million barrels a day flat for 53 years they're done now Exxon has a 17 year Reserve life index which means that in a normal world Saudi Arabia should triple their production to 30 million barrels a day in order to be the same as Exxon and so if they can do that at $35 a barrel which I believe they can I think Saudi has now realized that the world might stop using oil and the peak demand while it's not here is coming and so they don't have 53 years they have to accelerate that so to me no matter how much technology we do here I think the Saudis are gonna grow production to 15 20 25 30 million barrels a day so they exhaust the kingdom of oil before the world stops needing it and that will make it very hard to innovate with you are and polymers and all the things that need 70 or 80 dollars a barrel because I think the Saudis are gonna do their absolute best to keep oil in the 40 to 50 range so the US can restart the engine and they totally control the world so is that a question you're a Zetas like are you thinking like the environmental shift on where that pushes obviously I mean with you know elections coming etcetera or what we're watching on that side is there a the the oil peace meaning that people are the world is moving away from it you know where's that driver yeah I mean there's forty six trillion dollars of worldwide funds driven a lot from Europe that are anti fossil fuel not just one invest like divest fossil fuels I think it's it's crazy if we had a better business model they would invest and US companies have the technology that could be applied in other countries and I think that that's an upshot but every other country has national oil companies and those national oil companies control the entire market whereas our free market has hundreds and hundreds of companies that all act on their own best interest and so it's it's it's a bit about the world on fossil fuels but the American consumer if we see were importing more oil and there's this big move for green and wind and solar and natural gas nuclear whatever it is there is going to be a move where people don't want to invest unless your national income and it's your only product for the entire Kingdom of Saudi Arabia there's a reason they went and bought Hilton and Carnival Cruise Lines and all those stocks in the downturn is they're trying to capture ownership of companies by using petrol dollars so I think that's the driver Ethan again we'll see but that's why I'm really bearish on oil for the next period but gas is just money pay got you that's great it's kind of a we're kind of getting close to our witching hour here running out of time I think I'd like to you have each you start with Ethan kind of some closing closing thoughts yeah happy to from muted okay so yeah so moving ahead you know and I know and I follow obviously hot taking a bunch of others and and I think what you know I think a lot of people have talked about what you're gonna see is some of the larger companies better position companies grabbing up assets you know controlling basins you know working a control basins whether that's you know on the on the acquisition side with a lot of these companies that are in trouble as we've talked about you know and it's no secret you know a number of companies currently going through bankruptcy how it looks moving forward what we've seen in the markets you know currently as I said natural gas looking forward pricing wise you've seen things you know I'd say like in the royalty space where you had an average of kind of eighty-two thousand per flowing barrel as a metric is now around forty same on the operation side etc non ops very difficult to place the uncertainty in the marketplace with operators and with a lot of these companies and not knowing where they're headed keeps buyers on the sidelines with a lot of cash and we've got a lot of buyers with a lot of cash and so I think those guys are waiting for the right Beale no one's no one's rushing out there and just throwing money down everybody's gotten a lot pickier on the buy side for sure and and I you know it's we're still gonna see I think the big guys are gonna continue to sell the public's you know we're still seeing deals from Chevron and and merit and XTO and and all those companies or you can continue to divest which is a great pickup for a lot of people you know a lot of those companies that smaller companies I can pick those assets up that that are non core to them but that can be a company maker for somebody else so I would say you know moving ahead it's it's difficult it's tough to sell in a lot of in a lot of cases but I think we're just getting it's gonna happen and we're seeing it so if you can position yourself in the right way be available have dry powder you know be able to pick up deals I think you're gonna you're gonna succeed here and that's about it on my side and why that has exists and why assets aren't moving because I think that that that's one of the things like everyone wants to buy but they have the the fundamental structure of the bid-ask spread yeah so it you know obviously depending on you know where the bank they're so as you said earlier drw you know the debt the debt piece here the big things so what do you see trading is it you know are you trading it you is there cash now do we look at some sort of future production payment are we trading paper we use in stock or we you know how do you how do you pick these deals out why that took place initially really the bit of spreads been going on I'd say through I think nineteen you know kind of eighteen you know moving into twenty nineteen we had a we had a lot of deals done but they were more difficult and as we moved into twenty of course that's gotten even worse so as far as you know where someone can sell I think if you look at the investments that took place and what people were buying over the course of the last few years and what they spent versus what they need to sell for now and can't possibly get anywhere close to that is the biggest problem that we've seen it's just you spend a lot of money on the land side or on the mineral side or buying up this stuff in front of somebody etcetera hoping you're in front of somebody and and in the end you just you spend a lot of money on on minerals that are worth half if not a quarter of what they were and or a producing asset as well and I think that's the key point there is again what's different is the structure and nature of complex financial transactions coming out of 2008 we're a lot more complex financially today than we were in nineteen eighty five and there's so much debt that the asset value at strip is below debt right now so it's better for a company to go through bankruptcy and get a new balance sheet which means they're not going to sell then it is to sell which is why I think it's a two to three year process so David my closing kind of comments the what I want to leave people with is going into the coronavirus in March the unemployment rate in this country was three point seven percent and for those who were in industry in 2013 I want you to remember what the industry looked like in 2013 when unemployment was effectively zero we had just anybody was in any seat people could jump jobs all they wanted for more money and there wasn't a correlation to skill necessarily with the job people had we now have 36 million Americans who are out of work which is the most buy in the Great Recession of 2008 9 we lost 3 million jobs we have lost 36 million jobs in six weeks and that number will peak between 45 and 50 million if not more and in July when the economy reopens people will discover that a lot of the people who think they're furloughed and I mean across all industries there will be no job for them to go back to which means that we'll have a unemployment rate of 20% now why is that important for you the people and in turn energy I think are the greatest professionals who work under the most incredible conditions in the most complex regulatory safety multi-dimensional financial regulatory government all the things we have skills that now everyone can compete for the jobs that companies need to fill and every company is now distressed and so on't limit yourself to energy because Amazon needs help Google needs help Walmart needs help Macy's needs help Hilton needs help Southwest Airlines needs help and there will be so from a job market there will be so many jobs they need smart creative hardworking wonderful professional so that's opportunity number one opportunity number two is the democratic states and this is nothing about Democrats or Republicans but New York California and Illinois shut down their economies and have no plans to real and what that means is their tax revenue on a deficit that already exists on a massive debt which already exists taxes will raise for citizens especially for wealthy citizens but for all citizens and Social Services will drop schools will close hospitals will close police departments will close towns will shudder and declare bankruptcy and what that means for the populace is those people will not want to live in those places no one would live in New York if you couldn't go out to dinner every night and go to a show and weren't being paid a million bucks a year so those people are going to move and states like Oklahoma that have reopened that show entrepreneurial spirits that have cheap office space that have affordable living and have an incredible workforce are going to be the net winners so work with your government work with your state work with your local to attract those businesses and those startups to start in Oklahoma where life is cheap life is great life is awesome and the people are amazing because that is how the economy will move forward post kovat where Oklahoma will be a winner and New York and California will be a loser so that to me is the opportunity that comes out of this and so I think be very hopeful and Trust trust your path you know never give up and take every meeting you can to see what the next break is gonna be for you agreed that's great I would like to add a few few closing things after listening to him thanks guys that was that was absolutely what I was hoping we'd hear a couple of general thoughts in and maybe something a little bit more silver lining and positive for the current workforce one of the things that that drw mentioned in his in his discussion was is the start with the mode well the mode the mode can also be the barrett it's I always call that barrier of entry but the there is a huge barrier of entry or a company's of size to acquire and operate stripper oil and gas production they just doesn't move the needle so generationally there are there are families and we have member companies in the patrol alliance where they they've literally on their third generation of pumping their wells and what-have-you and this is there's not not all generational producers have errors that are wanting to be in this business so our our baby boomer group which are now the youngest are 58 years old I know that because I am the last year of the baby boomers so this is you're seeing you're seeing the turning of the page here and as we all start assuring stage left there will be a bill actually will be consolidation that for the first time I always always wondered as industries industries mature they consolidate you know and in the 50s there were literally ends of our companies now there's four you know it just happens condoms of scale a number a number of things our industry never really consolidated because there was an air or there was the the barrier of entry wasn't as high there was we built a as you pointed out we built a over the last six eight years we built our house was built on debt um as well being built on cards you know it's not really could not survive this kind of this kind of oscillation and the pricing and what have you so I I think I think there is more opportunity for for those four I think they'll be every time I've seen in Oklahoma City this situation know this isn't exactly I agree one percent this is something new but it has elements of the OL of old downturns where people lose their jobs and every time I've seen that happen I've seen it explode into you know our company goes down and it explodes into thirty new companies and they're all small and they're and they're all getting after it unfortunately capital is gonna be a little bit harder to get but hopefully you know if you can show that you have the better mousetrap I can't operate these wells at this because I live two miles from there and and I know how to do it because I was trained at xyc oil and gas company so to me that pivot is coming in Oklahoma we kind of led the charge guys we're over 90% down on our rig count and we got there faster than anybody else so so and part of that is part of that's the rock we have to be honest but part of it is just our company we have some pretty smart companies that operate here that said hey we got there's a better time to do to do this so I would leave everybody with I think that Americans in America will get more isolationist than we predict right now that which means supply chain grow replacement will grow reap I like the word repatriation but that there's a lot of words being thrown around about how do we bounce back from this and I like to we let's make it here let's let's find verticals you know in Oklahoma that use natural gas and that should be our war-cry sure and I I think I think overall I appreciate you both for being positive it said we got a long way to dig out but know everybody's got a shovel so let's let's not cover each other up with it let's do it let's let's forge our own futures so appreciate it guys all right in for being on morning fuel this morning thank you thanks Dave thanks everybody thanks thanks everybody reach out anytime