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take it when you take it at 1930 to 1932 the ratio just about once to want in 1932 gold is about $40 I understand I'm just trying to give you an example for a long term of the prices which I know exactly what they are 1932 one is about 14 so I know the numbers in my head okay 1932 gold is just about of $37 $35 it gets to that other so and Dow Jones is about 40 42 points okay so they're just roughly one to one okay 1980 they're just about the same gold is about 850 okay and and now josh is roughly about 900 or so thousand to process well okay this is 1929 that's I mean about 1980 where is the longest gap between your green line and yes and yes right out okay so right so fast after 1913 okay right so no matter where you start okay that's very easy quite no matter where you start in nineteen eighty you will be ahead in gold up against stocks so when you start you will be in yes absolutely [Music] [Music] you will be twice ahead in gold relative to the stocks yes yes all right endpoint nineteen eighty no matter where you start gold will be always ahead now the opposite is also true if the end point is 1999 no matter which stocks will surely perform better than gold when the point is 1999 yes okay I think very much appreciate this very spirited a spirited debate but also for time sake we should move together yes yes all right seminar again there's also an opportunity to ask to professor questions I'm pretty sure yeah and also in the braces all right so here's the thing if there is a commodity bull market as there was one in the 1970s or as this one that started in 2000 up until 2010 and as we expect to be now on a second leg of a commodity bull market what does better what does worse in other words what is the performance of different things in a commodity bull market land easy answers stocks are the worst second words are born so the commodity bull market you don't want to be in stocks and bonds well what do you want to be well gold silver and of course oil in that particular case and you can see some other things not far in there in other words in a commodity bull markets gold and silver are the typical top best performers in stocks and bonds are the worst performers in this why explains in the longer run it depends where you start from and what is the cycle it's a commodity cycle rocks and logs bad okay commodities and gold good in the opposite things change they get a mirror image in a commodity bear market the whole picture is the same but upside down stocks and bonds perform great and gold and perform relatively poor the picture is a mirror image let's see what else we got here or fundamental analysis are going to take wazzaker v analysis i wanna maybe go through this one and then go and take a break yes all right it is gold is relatively undervalued to financial assets we're still midway through the cycle 17 is still relatively cheap gold and relatively expensive stocks at the moment second there is significant Amman demand by smart money woohoo smart money smart money will be hedge funds hedge fund managers and there'll be some of the richer people in the world like Warren Buffett and all those Bill Gates and whatnot who do keep good chunks of their money well one bucket was a big fire actually a silver a lot more silver than gold that's a different topic but these people do buy significant amount in gold and then there is big money big money is different from smart money big money are the funds big pension funds like California pension well they're not yet invested much big in money's endowments of Harvard they're not with a lot of billions of dollars big money will be sovereign wealth funds if it's from the Middle East they understand it a little better and they invest a little bit more so fundamental analysis okay it's an inflation hedge in times of inflation overall general prices of all assets the best performer is always silver the second best performer is always go again but you know try putting a million in silver see how does it work means how do you get a million owner of silver how do you get it home you need a truck that's why gold is in other words you can use small money to buy to buy they say me 500 euros last time I got me kilogram of silver okay so I want to put in fifty thousand 50 thousand euro do they make hundred kilograms I can't even lift it off the ground okay so silver is not as it's very good for small money but for bigger money there's no choice there's no option it is gold next one well central bank's printing money quantitative easing your communities in 1 & 2 & 3 central banks have increased money supply to 3 times depend on where you start I will have a chart gold is by far most certainly the best currency hedge each government the Chinese depreciates their own money so do they have competitive exports the Koreans depreciate your own Korean won so that have competitive exports the Japanese depreciate areum so never they're competitive exports or Americans in turn depreciate and that's been a policy of the American College to depreciate the dollar so that their exports Europe and Mario Draghi has been consistently depreciating year so in all of these which we call currency wars the only one standing is gold even Switzerland was forced for a while for they were used to duty to pay the swiss franc to the euro and to keep it depreciating step by step with you until they realize that begging to the euro is kind of like the top kid in the school you know hanging out all the time with the drunkards you know with happens and you know basically thanks to the euro was relatively had a relatively disastrous effect for the Swiss economy okay well it's a crisis heck yes 2008 2009 as long as the global financial crisis was raging stock markets were crashing gold who's gonna especially during the Greek we call it the European sovereign crisis okay gold was going up up and up stock markets were crashing big time and real estate wasn't doing very well either so in bad times it helps you a gas crisis it's an alternative stocks bonds property again I've been explaining already significant part you know there are times when one is a good investment there's time there's the better asset and in uncertain times you stay somewhat balanced you keep half half in each you're in good shape okay central banks of pressure there's been a lot of literature's very controversial that central banks especially the US central bank the Federal Reserve additionally Bank of England some other central banks have kept for a long time the gold price suppressed which means you and me can buy cheaper okay when the suppression is eventually over because they eventually run out of gold to sell then the price will go a whole lot higher so it's actually great if they sell it to you cheaper you might keep central banks in both sales okay up until 2010 eleven even twelve a lot of central banks in the US Federal Reserve who was sending another gold London Bridge sold a lot of gold okay Italians and all the European Central Bank's were selling gold and at the same time Asia's were buying gold well for the previous 10 years they solved all that they could they had no more to sell they ran out of gold to solve that they were willing to sell so right now all the central banks are buyers and we discussed if you remember yesterday who the biggest buyer was for 2017 when Amir Putin Russia was the biggest buyer in the world and the second biggest buyer was Central Bank of China but the authors are buying to question here or not yes you talk about the Western systems central banks they were securing the price of gold and maybe all if you look at the internet also there's a lot of talks of our also suppressing of the price of silver yes I suppose it is why do these banks what to suppress go by our Western Central Bank's suppressing the price of gold 42 right well why would they do that what's what's their motivation is very easy when gold goes it's an indicator there is something wrong with the economy gold price going up either tells you that maybe there's a banking crisis going on maybe there's a currency crisis going on in other words that gold never goes up for a good reason usually goes up for a bad reason Gold is the market barometer standing you somewhere something is wrong something's not working well well it is up thermometer if you see gold or you know something's wrong well what good central banks can do say well oh they just they you know they just break the thermal it doesn't show you that something in other words gold has a signaling mechanism and central banks don't want gold to signal gold is actually very good indicator that the economy is going down just getting into a recession or a depression okay so they just don't want the gold to reveal something going back before what a good buyer let's see I'm shipping area soon okay well there's a whole bunch of investment demand which is pretty much the same thing if the dollar falls one of them well these best edge certainly against the falling dollar is gold not the euro not the Swiss franc franc not the change is not the Japanese gold nothing protection power except general currency market oh yes in the last 10 years all currencies especially as I was explaining due to the currency war all currencies have become a lot more volatile they go a whole lot higher and a whole lower all governments try to manipulate their currency for their own benefit it's called that beggar-thy-neighbor policy where you depreciate your currency to gain trading advantage against the father's but it doesn't work it works as long as they don't do anything but of course as soon as you depreciate your currency they come back three six months later and they depreciate theirs it's only a race to the bottom and the only way out for you is though well of course real-estate will also protect you against but that's okay it is an outstanding protection against general market instability in meaning you should have and will of course remember just what happened last month February 4 5 6 ok February 5 was the big crash and again gold performed was supposed to when all global markets crashed gold was moving well yesterday we had a nice juicy market crash stock markets Dow Jones was 700 coins now but the Nikkei was a whole lot worse and pretty much all of Asia crashed some more some lesson today exactly the same in exactly the same story yesterday gold was up quite a lot $20 and today again up until the alright age we start at 10 minutes or 1 hour ago it's being roughly again about $20 so gold is a great protection in these times of course you got a bank bankruptcies when things start falling there's nothing else to save you except basic gold on the side somewhere else same applies for political fears or Wars or geopolitical risks I already mentioned economic as market participants get to feel and sense that the economy is getting weaker and weaker they anticipate they expect the central bank will begin expansionary policy the central bank will lower interest rates and they expect the currency due to the lower interest rate into the money expansion to depreciate and they buy gold in anticipation okay so gold is actually very early of something somewhere going wrong for instance well any of these are usually bad times in one way or another so all is not meant to be an investment to make money gold is more of an investment to protect what you already have you don't need again to put and that's going to be catcher in the next section after the break okay this is a portfolio part ok sorry what my sister finds lemons do you have anything else okay well again very easy to see picture very easy to explain so mine of gold as soon as you got to the global financial crisis 2008 any salary you're buying spikes morning dollars and then this is the European financial crisis that would be Greece and Italy and Spain all those going ha hey then you see it triggers even more line you can actually see from three four hundred five rows down to seventeen hundred so gold buying can increase easily three four times significant amount of buying which aboard drives the price of gold significantly higher - well the consumer demand you got a lot arising jury that's big in China jewelry's big way bigger is in Dubai in the Arab world we're just talking 5% of all gold buying in the Middle East just the same in India okay so they buy the jewelry instead of the coin for the bar or the bullion itself as a substitute for it and they might as well wear it why they have it right then of course there's some industrial demand spare tips banal is an industrial man hey no the investors are already got small people and funds are bigger than the central banks in other words central banks have already lost most of their gold it's already sold so sooner or later central banks will be turning from settlers they've been sell us for the last 20 or 30 years into eventually buyers okay in gold this is a tiny room usually when things go bad gold would be 10 to 15% represent them all liquid acid so from here on liquid assets relative to gold gold has the potential to go just roughly about 10 times about any time which is similar to stocks now if you make the ratio to real estate I'm just throwing it in the ratio is just about 5 to 1 in other words Gold's got off no stocks are actually even more what you see here happening central banks the total she will look if money which they have the money supply you can see the video see that's China the Swiss National Bank Bank of England all major banks they were roughly about three point five trillion that's the money supply six or seven they have roughly doubled the money supply September 15 crisis hits with Lehman Brothers going bankrupt on that day suddenly they print in two months you can see increased money supply roughly 30% three months and then just be pregnant and you see here since then from April 9 they're up to 17 and that's 2016 PI now 2018 it's over 20 so in the lab and use they doubled the money supply again this is massive inflation which shows up it shows up first and foremost in housing shows up second and foremost in stocks shows up worse in crypto currencies and then everything else I mean everything else is expensive okay so fundamental analysis you can just see Oh bond prices have been highest in human history okay okay if we've never seen so low interest rates in so high bond prices so stocks are relatively high over that bonds of relative war where each government wants to depreciate there's a relative lower value and will be further depreciated in that year now we can work on currency wars - the new thing from last week or month is trade war starts with Trump imposing tariffs in China and yesterday China comes back and says we're not going to take it will retaliate can impose back the FF when we're back to trade wars and finally relatively under many commodities so it's not only gold I mean it's platinum is also cheap okay clapping is cheaper then silver is relatively undervalued to go so in a sense silver is better buy these days and platinum again but it's the v80 tax and whatnot and you got to get the coin it's a little you know platinum palladium on a little trick here again that's why you stick with gold you know that's a little simpler and easier so I think let's take a short break [Music] yes of course