Sign Kentucky Banking Notice To Quit Easy

Industry sign banking kentucky notice to quit easy

well we'll go ahead and get started we're up to 148 people at this point so uh good morning everybody thanks for being here i know it's uh with all the snow in our business uh a lot of attention out there and making sure our residents and everyone's taken care of so i hope everybody's uh well this morning uh thanks for being here again so we want to go through a few of the details uh first we have a few uh save the date kind of things that we want to go through make sure to remind everybody first we're going to have the finance forum that dave's always a part of does a great job with sarah berman from bellwether and that's going to be march the 5th from 8 a.m to 9 00 a.m so please make sure you mark your calendars for that and register for the finance forum it's it's a great follow-up to this meeting today um which the cbr team is putting together so make sure you mark your calendars for that on the education side we there's free leasing and tech sessions starting uh on march 11th 24th april 7th april 22nd and may 12th all that is sponsored by the education committee in yardi and there's a number of classes that's being covered in there the new apartment tour high tech high touch leasing uh powerful conversations in a virtual reality how renters search and crm is customer relations management so there's some great surveys going on we also have uh it starts uh tomorrow is a kind of a cam slam if you're anybody's last minute interested uh in joining that kaylee you can contact haley about trying to get into that for the camp slam starting tomorrow on the 10th so or on the yeah on the 10th so that'd be quick but jump on to that and then lastly the business exchange as we know we haven't uh we're not going to have our trade show in march as we typically do that's going to be kicked back to august we're switching flip-flopping the business exchange in the trade show so to make sure we can have an in-person trade show so we're going to be doing that so we're going to do the business exchange in march uh keep the connections flowing and going and then we'll have our trade show in august and then we'll come back again next march with the trade show in person so that'll be the schedule to be going through so and then of course i can't wait to see everybody live and in person our first real in-person event we're scheduling is the june golf outing so we're going to be kicking that off soon and that'll be our first uh anticipated in-person event in june so we look forward to that because always today is the best event because we always see so many people but uh unfortunately we had to uh switch over so uh next i want to go through and thank the diamond sponsors you know we do that every year in every event but it's truly uh it's a blessing having this group and i'm going to read the entire group today including the the primary members as well because they also contribute as well so as we're going forward so apartments.com is our first uh callaway uh clean restoration remodel uh who are is our new addition for this year and we thank you them for joining we have contractors inc court pinnacle paving and ceiling ppg paints royal finish and sherwin williams so give you guys a big round of applause thank you for being our diamond sponsors and i really appreciate everything you do for our organization and then on the primary side uh it's been the same group as well and that's brg apartments fast properties hills properties town properties and wallet communities so thank you to the five of you as well for continuing our sponsorship we really appreciate it so thank you for you guys as well everybody participation and what this has done from stability especially in these times got us through a hump for a while and then for uh going through the the coveted piece has really been amazing so thank you for the ongoing support as we move forward now let's give away some money so we have a couple of uh spin the wheels michelle the first one will be a 25 bob evans gift certificate and the winner is it's nice seeing all those names on the the wheel hayden fiedler congratulations 25 hayden to uh bob evans and next the second one is a bp gas card where i can use a full tank of gas oh mary ann taylor i wonder who that is thanks congratulations marianne thank you there you go uh so now we want to move on to we've got uh four committee reports that we're going to go to so i'm going to kick off first with jordan morgan and the membership committee jordan thank you don good morning everyone first i would like to welcome all new and existing members and to say thank you for being to part of today's meeting the association is starting the year out strong representing over 101 000 units over 240 associate members and over 200 primary members membership committee will be holding a meeting tomorrow to discuss new and creative ways for potential members to join so if anyone out there knows if a potential owner or vendor interested in becoming a member please contact myself my co-chair craig kaufman or patty at the association short and sweet thank you and that concludes the membership report wow great job jordan thank you very much i appreciate all you guys are doing uh next outreach mr march good morning everybody as you know mr brunner nothing i do is short and sweet so uh good job jordan uh the 5k rent is scheduled for april 10th down at friendship park at 9 00 a.m uh due to coronavirus the committee will be meeting on thursday and discussing potentially an alternative date just to be safe potentially july 24 or 31 but we will be following up with everybody related to that and let you know as soon as we know more um i want to thank cincinnati coin and joe michelle again for always being the primary sponsor of this event joe has been so supportive of outreach and the work we do i'd like to thank justin seeger for chairing the outreach 5k for rent this year justin's our newest member of the outreach board and stepped right up so justin thank you see you on the screen i ask everybody to please consider sponsoring and supporting this event there are three sponsor levels there's a gold sponsor for a thousand dollars silver sponsor for 500 and then a bronze sponsor for 350 so when the phone rings or the email comes please don't avoid it please step up and help us we've got to raise about 37 000 this year to meet our budget in total income this has really been a great effort for everybody also would encourage companies to support their team members by paying you know maybe for their entrance maybe them and a spouse or loved one um total income in 2020 just to give you an update we crossed the 350 000 level which was a record it allowed us to provide a lot of extra support beyond what was budgeted 150 000 in rent assistance 70 000 to the food pantries and then of course we had back to school event scholarships emergency fund etc um i just want to remind everybody that if you have renters in need please go to our partners particularly the free store food bank they do not turn anybody away just be please know that resources available also you can go to gcnk.org and click under resources and charles and the team there have been doing a great job of updating as new government monies become available again to help out your residents in need it helps you as well so that concludes my report thanks dave look forward to your remarks thanks thank you jeff thanks jeff um legislative committee justin bryan i'm not sure who wants to go first i can go ahead and start in kentucky in kentucky legislative news senate bill 11 which makes uh criminal the damaging of rental property has passed through the house with a vote about 28 to eight and was passed on the house february 4th uh we will continue to lobby for the passage of this bill with our local legislators the hope is to get a passed soon so there'll be enough time to override any veto uh that the governor puts on it last year in 2020 we did get the bill passed but the governor vetoed the bill at the end and there wasn't enough time to override it we are hoping in the short term to educate the governor on the importance of this bill and how it helps the landlords and how it is not punitive for people struggling with to pay rent due to uh covet or other job losses the other major issue in kentucky is the distribution of the 297 billion dollars in rental assistance that the state is receiving from the federal government we are working hand in hand with the apartment association of kentucky on educating the governor on a reasonable way to distribute the money so the landlords are not penalized the first round of coveted money which was received from the state of kentucky from the federal government was given out through the kentucky healthy at home program and required the landlords to take a haircut on the amount owed give up all our late fees and modify their leases moving forward everyone recognizes the needs rental assistance we are however working to make sure it gets in the hands of landlords in an equitable way without penalty so that uh that concludes my report for kentucky thanks brian thanks brian um ohio much like kentucky our primary focus right now is working with local officials to understand how we can make the distribution of federal rental assistance available in as efficient of a manner as possible ohio's distribution programs have been a little bit more reasonable than kentucky but still very much a work in process with each wave of new federal funding we still expect the next package to include another 25 billion dollars for the country and federal rental assistance and homelessness prevention which will make its way through the state down to the local level also sounds like any future extension of the federal eviction moratorium will happen through executive order by president biden and not be part of any upcoming stimulus package as i mentioned last month we continue to monitor and try to make sense of the growing number of candidates that are interested in the mayoral and city council races seems like a new candidate emerges every week in other city of city city of cincinnati news the rental inspection program registration deadline was last october city has been very lenient with the deadline because of the current climate but is strongly encouraging anyone who has not registered to do so at this time you can find the link to register in some faq documents on the association's website we continue to monitor upcoming legislation coming out of columbus and the political action committee is working on hosting a small event with congressman wenstrup in march i'll say the same thing i say every time i do this please continue to share any and all eviction court experiences as well as reynolds assistance success stories gcnk website and team is a great resource for any legislative questions that you may have is that it justin that's it don great job you guys do a fantastic job in the climate we're in now it's really important and everybody anybody that wants to join the legislative committee we have our meeting on thursday morning at 8 30. if you'd like to join that and there's a membership committee tomorrow at noon if you want to be a part of that as well but uh legislative committee is going to be pretty active as usual but i think even more this year so if you want to join that'd be great and just in it brian and jesse and and charles do a great job so please look to join uh next uh i want to turn it over to uh melissa joy and the social media committee good morning don i will do my best to keep it short and sweet too since you compared me to mr march at our last meeting and his inability to do that um but just very quickly i know everyone's very familiar with our social media committee and i see many faces and names who have participated in our weekly member spotlight i wanted to say thank you for that we have a really big year planned for 2021 um 2020 i think really underscored the importance of having a committee focused on doing what our social media committee does every day which has really helped connect our members and promote everything that's going on in the association hearing justin speak about the legislative issues going on and brian um also brought to light need for us to share information in real time we know that um our our committee and charles is working hard to share information mark is getting information at the national level when we can push that out to our members through the platforms on social media it's just a really great way for everyone to stay informed stay connected to share experiences in addition to all the fun things that we do like interviews and spotlights and things like that um our primary platform right now is facebook and instagram is a close second if you do not like and follow us on those platforms we really encourage you to do so um it helps promote things like our outreach efforts um and we're really excited for 2021 to share some changes that are going to be made in the scheduling we're interviewing uh not only individual members um but we're really focused on promoting some of the ceos and presidents i hope you all got to watch last week we intro interviewed dan schimberg with uptown um which was a great interview and i got a lot of really positive feedback about that if you um would like to invite your ceo president if an owner is on this call and wants to join that initiative we would like to spotlight you and share a little bit about your experience in this industry and with the gcnka um and then also um we are going to be interviewing the food banks that are um supported through our apartment association outreach susan peck helped connect me with um all of the uh the food banks and they're all scheduled to be interviewed in the next couple of months so very excited about that um just to show the community what we do as an industry and what we do as an association to give back to our community our next committee meeting is tuesday february 23rd at 9 a.m we are meeting via zoom everyone is invited we're the biggest meeting of the last two years that the committee has been in existence last year so it's a really great way to get involved to share your ideas and whether you can join or not carrie reilly and i are the co-chairs and we would welcome any feedback that you have um construct or otherwise we want to be a resource for you um and we want to promote again everything that's going on in the association thanks and this is my favorite event of the year so i'm going to stop talking so we can get to mr locker thanks melissa great job you guys have done a great job bringing life to our association so um just to remind everybody uh you're on mute at this point and will be through dave's presentation if you have questions in during or especially at the end we're going to do q a through the chat to start with so if you have uh questions you can submit them to the chat uh in either myself mark rebecca somebody will will go through administer those uh today or ask those to dave as we get going so uh just to make sure everybody understands that uh it want to go through dave's uh intro he's kept it pretty short this time so uh it could be a very long one but dave is the team leader for cbre and since the cincinnati multifamily group dave and his team specialize in the sale of apartment properties in southern and central ohio and kentucky dave has worked in the apartment industry for the past 30 years and is the past president of the gc and kaa how long was that 51 days is that correct yeah about 38 38 days so all right he and his combined team have closed more than five billion dollars in apartment sales he's an expert on all matters related to multi-family uh everybody please welcome mr dave locker and his team thanks dave for being here and your team hey thanks don good morning john can you see my share screen not at this point okay here we go bud how about that okay sir hey good morning everyone i was reminiscing with michelle klusman last week about when this program started when i first started doing the state of the industry it was actually first year was 1998. about 75 people on the radisson riverfront come a long way since then we've got radisson riverfront the newport syndicate to the oasis and i remember to think of the oasis where do we go from here where do we go we go virtual we go global so hey good morning to everyone in auckland new zealand it's 3 15 a.m in auckland thanks for dialing in those of you in tel aviv it's 4 p.m we'll be done before dinner we'll be all set so today a couple of housekeeping items first of all in the past here we've always shared the slide deck when we're done we're going to do the sharing of the slide deck with the apartment association and our team website but even better we're recording this presentation it'll be on the apartment association website so you'll be able to log in and watch this presentation over and over and over again for the balance of the year but what are we going to talk about today let's see economic indicators we'll get into those talk about code's impact on real estate and a lot of you have covered fatigue but it's been sea changes and what's happening in our world and in our industry and i think we need to address where we go from here because of the covet impacts we'll talk about rents and occupancy cover the investment market we'll look at some of the exciting projects in the development pipeline and then we're going to look at my forecast fearless forecast prognostications for where we go so who in 2020 picked up a new hobby i did my hobby in 2020 became doomsday prepping i'm coming to you today from 30 feet below my backyard okay i thought it was pretty on brand to go to doomsday prepping in 2020. now if the power cuts out not to worry the generator will kick in in five seconds and we'll be back online it seems like for the last eight or nine years i kept saying in this report what's going on where do we go what does last year look like what's the future bring and it was onward and upward onward and upward if you recall i said well the biggest potential issue would be a black swan appearing in my mind the black swan felt like it was going to be this guy north korea launching a missile into tokyo but little did i know it was a global pandemic so the black swan appeared and kind of set our world up on its side yeah it changed dramatically uh in fact i remember at the end of last year the oasis kind of made a passing comment in this corona thing i really didn't think it was going to be a thing and a month later it was a thing what were the impacts in the economy well by the year end we had lost 9.2 million jobs in the us which is a pretty sizable hit cincinnati however fared a little better believe it or not if you believe the bureau of labor statistics bls if you believe they're not putting forward bs they say we only lost 5 000 jobs in greater cincinnati last year which speaks to the resiliency of our market and the unemployment rates we are trending ahead of the national average in cincinnati and we're beating the ohio average in cincinnati the ohio average here in this market so actually considering the impacts of covid i think we've withstood them pretty well it hasn't been an easy road but we're hanging in there part of the reason is you know the federal government um put not stimulus dollars but rescue and bailout dollars into the market to keep the world from teetering over the various cares packages and bailout dollars that have come forward are designed to keep the economy and the country afloat and you can see that the estimations of the forecasts from bls and moody's as to when we'll see a recovery of full employment is triggered off of those bailout dollars and federal government yeah they opened their coffers okay they had to if you think about the economy the best analogy or metaphor i can use right now is that we're a car we're going down the road and one of our tires is leaking air heading to flat the federal government's coming in and pumping air into that tire but our economy and our world won't run smoothly until we get that flat fixed and that means getting coveted under control basically shots in arms now the stock market and this is okay this is everyone's quality a lot of people i know this is their quality of life indicator how's the market doing that's gonna tell you how i'm doing well the market lasted february 24th got the memo at that point that this coveted thing was real because on monday the 24th there was a massive sell-off in the stock market that began now the stock market has recovered why is that not necessarily because the economy has recovered it was because signals came out that the federal government was prepared to do whatever it had to in terms of bailout to keep the economy afloat and that's brought the market back up probably a better indicator how the economy was doing last year is gdp gross domestic product as you can see gdp declined three and a half percent which is a pretty significant hit now the cbr research house view is that we're going to see a robust recovery in 2021 of four and a half percent growth oxford economics is not quite as optimistic saying we're going to see a gdp in the 3.6 range followed by three percent growth in 2022 so the forecasts are there is a recovery that's going to happen you know beginning at some point this year interest rates being low and these are going to stay low for a while until you start to see evidence of a global economic recovery and that global economic recovery could be a ways off and i think you're going to see both short and long term rates stay low now i'm moving beyond my pay grade when i'm starting to do interest rate prognostications and i think my guess is that if and when the treasury yield curve starts to move it's probably going to move first at the long end that will be a sign that there is some global growth and recovery taking hold but at this point estimates from cbr and research in boston say that the 10-year treasury they're forecasting it they're calling it lower for longer i think there's a long run of longer-term interest rates staying relatively low compared to long-term averages so also we'll get the investment section you'll see it's also driving uh the cap rate discussion one other note i haven't mentioned is we are going to take q a at the end so if you have questions feel free to offer those up and chat and we'll address those at the end of the presentation fannie mae and freddie mac pretty robust lending year in 2020 all things considered and they're forecasting to be available and open for business in 2020 but they're 2021 i'm sorry but they're going to be a little bit more mission driven 50 of their lending is going to be targeted toward workforce housing the other thing that's impacting our industry is the rumblings of privatizing fannie and freddie i think those have gone away for the time being reason being is there's a lot to fix in the u.s right now and fannie and freddie aren't at the top of the list in terms of being broken so the privatization discussions have moved to the background how about on the demand side in multi-family what are the headwinds and what are the tailwinds one of the headwinds is demographically this cohort that's 24 to 35 years old as they age they're being replaced by a smaller cohort of current 15 to 24 year olds also millennials are aging right now and this is when they're moving into their 30s and likely to move toward maybe perhaps home buying and immigration in 2019 and 2020 were the lowest levels in 30 years in the us so those are the headwinds that we're facing tailwinds for the rental market are this high housing costs housing affordability is an issue housing costs have crept up especially the for sale market in the us we also see these households that are forming are forming in smaller households so they're creating demand lastly baby boomers are deciding that hey in my golden years i may just sell this house and move to lock and leave mode become a renter by choice and let somebody else deal with the headaches of housing locally population growth what does this look like yes in cincinnati we're lagging the national average okay but the outlook is actually better compared to where it was in 2011 so in 2011 we were growing at a grade of 0.2 per year now we're growing at a clip of 0.5 per year so our population growth is accelerating compared to prior history why is that okay amazon so here's a tip if i put up the same slide three years in a row okay that's a message this is important okay this amazon thing that's gonna it's happening at the airport that's opening this spring it is big in fact it is the most significant economic event in the region in the last two decades that's a direct quote who said that i did you can quote me on that because it is big and it's going to be big as it continues to fill out over the next five to seven years it's going to really have a sea change impact on us locally so i know you have cobid fatigue but i think it's important that we talk about maybe not as much what happened in rehash yesterday's news but also i think it's more important we talk about where do we go from here because there are going to be far reaching impacts on our world in our on our industry so what happened because of cobit well we have acceleration of trend enhanced technology adoption have you heard of zoom microsoft teams google meet give you a perfect example we moved into new offices downtown three years ago our main conference room had video conferencing capability i used it twice in three years before last february now i'm averaging well for a while there was two zoom calls at least per day so you're seeing acceleration of technology adoption in the consumer economy okay it had been growing it's accelerating dramatically more contactless payment even more e-commerce it's here to stay another area of impact is education yeah some of you are saying education yeah i know my kids are at home i wish they were at school but there's an adaptation to remote learning happening in the primary and secondary schools and a lot of them were caught flat-footed last spring when school shut down and you know not all the not a lot of grade schoolers had their own laptop so it created a whole set of challenges for school districts but i think as it relates to our industry is going to be a coming shakeout in post-secondary education because now the consumer and the student and their parent the bill payer they're now asking hey hybrid schools what am i actually getting here for my 20 30 40 000 a year let's separate the sizzle from the steak um in schools are you know they're looking at these students these students they're looking at as customers i'll give you an example we don't want to pick on schools but let's just say there's one in columbus that's pretty sizable okay last august they said yeah yeah we're going to mid-person school come on up parents stroke checks kids moved in and two days later yeah you know what we're just kidding we're going to full online you tell me they didn't know that on monday when they went before online on thursday the important part was get everybody in here paying the bills and i think a lot of consumers are looking at that going what just happened here not to pick on a school in columbus because a certain school in ann arbor michigan did the exact same thing just as examples so there's going to be a shakeout and a reckoning in that space over the next several years in the workplace whose workplace changed who's heard the phrase work from home work from home is here to stay work from home is also becoming work from anywhere as people were finding out i gotta work from home okay maybe that home needs to be on the beach somewhere i'll give an example you think back in march when the world shut down second home sales and vacation home sales thought well boy that market's going to fall the bottom's going to fall out of that oh wrong again dave because that market has boomed as people said you know what if i got to sit this pandemic out i may not sit it out and say boston i may sit it out in sarasota uh the other thing that major employers are doing in major metro cities is they've gone from a centralized office location let's say 3 000 people in chicago loop they're adopting a hub and spoke or going forward they're going to have 300 people in the chicago loop and then they've already gone to satellite offices at o'hare and lake zurich and barrington but the next step in that is going to be work from anywhere we'll talk about where those secondary offices will be located so let's tie it all to multi-family what's happening packages packages more packages if you don't have a package strategy now you're a little late but it's not too late to jump in i suggest you get a package strategy at your property because it's only going to grow over the next five years and technology is moving to the forefront you know portals smart dwellings touchless keyless because the consumer who's had to deal with cobin 19 in the back of their head they're saying you know what what happens if there's a coven-23 what happens if there's a coven-25 so all of these things that we've felt in the last year okay they're not necessarily going away we'll get covered in a box at some point with needles and arms but the fact of the matter is the consumer has been educated on things to be looking at and they're looking for more technology in their dwelling i think the apartment dwelling in the future is going to go the same way the automobile has gone because now the automobile uh here's the new phrase it's automation over carburetion is what's been happening in the vehicular world where the automobile is now computerized entertainment center on wheels that's what the car makers are selling i think in our industry dwelling in shelter we're going to be selling something completely different than what we sold for the last 10 years student housing i mentioned it now universities are going to be pressured for students they're going to be pressured for dollars they're going to have to look at their value proposition and their deliverable if you have a kid who's maybe approaching college age and one thing you're going to want to look at is what is the economic health and viability of this university if you're a student housing investor investing around a university i think it's time to take a hard look what does the endowment look like what's the fiscal health of the school because it's going to be dramatic there's going to be winners and losers in this shakeout over the next five years you're going to see this is where we're going to benefit the rise of secondary and tertiary cities i mean the next evolution in occupancy cost reduction you know i mentioned the hub and spoke for instance but a lot of employers in high cost cities are looking at this and saying hey you know what my spoke instead of it being out in chicago suburbs maybe that you know satellite office can be on milwaukee and grand rapids because i may not have to pay my people as much to have the same caliber and quality of living i can put some divisions in some of these secondary and tertiary cities and same head count cut my payroll cost so that calculates is going on across the country and for the time being public and shared transit a little less result desirable why you say it well just imagine getting onto the l for a 40 minute ride shoulder to shoulder with someone breathing on the back your neck right now i don't care how many masks they're wearing doesn't feel good then you get downtown to your building lobby where there's 1500 people aggregated waiting for temperature checks and wellness checks before they get on the elevator just not happening so what's happening now is housing and jobs need to be closer together that's a macro trend and that's not going to change the next five to seven years i want to touch on a few other impacts of covid i mean you're going to have to look and mention the federal government's open to coffers okay state and local budgets are going to be under a lot of strain as are school districts over the next few years so be aware of this i mean the city of cincinnati thought they had their pension situation figured out and they're probably going to reopen that whole negotiation because the actuarial impacts of covet now who didn't think they're going to on this presentation today and see maslow's hierarchy of needs yeah of course we are because i th nk that covet made a lot of people think about hey what's really important in life and this is where we take a minute and i think i want to congratulate everyone in the industry because our industry banded together and delivered something very important to people on their hierarchy of needs that word on the second level there shelter okay we provided basic human need and a lot of our people a lot of us were essential workers front line workers in the definition of essential worker the maintenance guy who goes and fixes units um in the middle of a pandemic releasing the on-site staff the managers who dealt with a lot of issue and crisis throughout this whole thing so i think everyone on this colony says take a minute and you know say hey we did some real good things last year we did well considering what we were addressing and by the way anyone who self-actualized last year in 2020 i'm wondering how because it didn't strike me as a self-actualizing year congratulations if you did the other thing on the hierarchy of needs is we should really start to look at basic fundamental needs is this what's at the root of all of our needs got to have wi-fi i mean wi-fi is at the root of everything you didn't have wi-fi you were in trouble last year housing in the u.s i mean anyone who was thinking about buying a house last year in 2020 it appears they did because housing jumped dramatically 14 volume increase 15 pricing increase across the u.s and the local numbers in cincinnati mirrored this almost identically 13 and 14 growth in the cincinnati msa so we're right on trend for the u.s we talked about commute to work and the impact what happened a lot of employers were reluctant to do work from home because they thought you know what if people aren't here under my eyeball they're not going to be productive and by necessity forces send all their people home and they found out you know what yeah there's a few slackers and productivity didn't decline as much as we expected and going forward you're going to see more hybrid work arrangements in the in the white collar space compared to what you did in the last 10 years that trend is here to stay and we talked about universities student debt i mean this is something that is going to undergo a pretty dramatic shift i think in the next 10 years because i mentioned earlier separating the sizzle from the stake let's talk about the law of unintended consequences a number of years ago the federal government said hey let's get involved here and help these kids that may not be able to afford college let's backstop their borrowing capability and suddenly university looked at an 18 year old kid whose job was a dairy queen and said hey they're bankable for a hundred grand because of the federal government and they looked at those consumers and said how do we get them in here do we improve our educational offerings maybe do we add sushi bar to the dining hall and rock climbing walls and fitness centers yeah we sure do because we want those consumers coming to our door do we want to you know promote some sizzle yeah and it worked look at student loading debt student loan debt 2020 it's quadruple compared to 2004. okay if you don't think the sizzle works i mean i'll just pick a school like let's say a clemson for instance have you heard of them recently okay have they elevated their educational offerings maybe i haven't studied it closely but i do know that they've increased their enrollment from 19 500 kids 10 years ago to 25 000 kids today so unless they open some new school of architecture i'm going to say maybe there are some sizzle factors that jump their enrollment 25 you know this challenging thing here on student loan debt is that 40 of these student borrowers walked out of there with debt and no diploma so look for this to change over the next 10 years rents and occupancy let's talk about first of all what happened across the u.s well guess what vacancy went up a tick last year okay as to be expected in a global pandemic and effective rents dropped last year no surprise there you know rents fell 3.3 percent quarter over quarter in q3 which is you know very very different because typically q3 in our business is a strong rent growth quarter so we know this is no surprise to those of you on the call that rents took a hit as the as we lost 9.2 million jobs where the change that the impact was felt most was at the higher end class a and then class b product with more significant rent losses compared to basic class c workforce housing so the struggle was in the higher end product across the country and a lot of that was the most expensive markets in the u.s the other break point was comparison of urban and suburban so you're going to probably heard it a lot i mean there's some challenges in the earth all these urban cores because the main employers are shut down the amenities are closed the theaters the restaurants the sporting venues but i'm going to tell you that in terms of macro trend urban is wounded but not dead as we start to recover from covet i think that the urban cores are going to lead the renaissance and rebirth because all the factors that were there in the last 20 years that drove the urban renaissance okay those factors will return how did cincinnati do here's this here's a scatter diagram okay and as you can see it's pretty scattered so you're gonna need to download the deck and study this one closely later but what it means is in the northwest corner these are the markets that perform the best relative to their peer markets in the coveted downturn rent change in vacancy you want to be in that upper left quadrant and lo and behold we were good for us how about rent data let's look at our rent surveying data and thanks to everyone who participated at year end i want to give a high-level view of what happened let's put a comparison in here compared to last year so year over year overall rents this is effective rents net of concessions specials and discounts effective rents dropped 1.7 percent last year in greater cincinnati class a rents dropped 5.4 class b rents dropped 6.9 and as you can see and consistent with the national chart i showed you class d rents went up well that was what happened in greater cincinnati last year what we also saw in greater cincinnati was a significant proliferation in concessions i mean historically the last 10 years concessions had been infrequent you know very focused and targeted but we started to see more broad-based concessioning in the market last year especially across the class a and b product spectrum as you know people with uncertain economic futures started to do what they could to manage their housing and dwelling costs so what are our key takeaways from rents in greater cincinnati now the overall effective rents they increased in class c spoke to the strength of the market okay and that's like relatively speaking suburban assets will tell you about you know outperformed urban but urban that's i mean as i told before that's only a blip on the screen class c workforce housing held up the best in effective rents the question is for how long will it continue that trend i think it's going to continue until we actually have a recovery because we're going to start to see more you know bailout dollars coming from the federal government to keep the underpinnings of the economy going yeah the heavy concessions appear for the first time in 10 years i think those are going to continue probably at least in the first half of this year until we start to see some robust recovery on a national level now let's talk about the investment market the investment market what is that that's the sprout of a money tree okay well great great graphic okay turn cover 19 what were the investment property types that were most desirable oh multi-family had been desirable leading up to that industrial has certainly moved to the forefront so in terms of real estate investment the two categories most favorable amongst investors both today and down the road are multi-family and logistics industrial that's why you're seeing a lot of money coming into this space a lot of money coming before even more so now last year transactions across the country were down 28 and i would tell you that's because in across the country there was a doughnut hole in transaction activity last year from roughly april through july okay deals got done in the first quarter that were spillovers or in process from 2019 then there was a significant pause in the market while investors tried to figure out hey who was going to be able to pay rent who was going to be able to look at properties or these things could we get lenders appraisers and inspectors out there to transact and after a few months started to figure out yes that was the case so the market started to kick in then late summer and put up a pretty solid rally in the third and fourth quarters of 2020 but we're still down 28 percent and that held true i mean cincinnati was kind of on trend everything you know investment sales rents and occupancy etc relative to the rest of the country the rest of the country was down 28 we were down 23 in terms of total consideration last year and then again that was that second quarter doughnut hole out of state buyers they were still in the market they did slightly less than half of the transactions went to out-of-market investors so local and regional investors were very active in 2020. and then transaction history 10-year history total consideration you can see 2020 was off uh 2021 we're forecasting recovering all of that compared to our you know compared to our drop i think you're going to see a level that's going to be a record this coming year as some of these transactions that were deferred uh are going to occur they're going to occur this year average price per unit i mean pricing trends i think are going to continue onward and upward uh you're seeing you know significant cap rate compression we'll talk about that in a minute i think you're going to see prices continue to escalate because of investor demand for multi-family in the region especially secondary and tertiary cities what were transactions like across product types classifications last year um just close to half our trades were in the class c space about a third in class a and about 20 19 in class b what about this risk premium you know the spread between cap rates in the 10-year treasury you know so part of the reason we're going to talk about cap rates in a minute but you know even though they're incredibly low levels it's because borrowing costs interest rates are down so there's still a fairly significant risk premium in there that investors can capture okay because of the spread between the cap rates and the tenure this was our prognostication if you will of cap rates a year ago at the end of 2019 okay so what happened in 2020 well let's talk about end of march 2020 early april we started my team we surveyed investors said hey how you feeling right now and what do you think cap rates are gonna look like in september and the answers are coming back man they're going to be a point higher they're going to be a point half higher they're going up up up because we think the world is shutting down that was in march okay by september like yeah everything's fine we're good to go and there's capital chasing deals so believe it or not compared to last march cap rates actually compressed even further because of the investor demand for product in our markets and this is consistent across the midwest ah the development pipeline let's talk about some of the exciting projects that are occurring first of all we'll look at national trends in terms of building uh you know what this slide just doesn't excite me you can study it at home later on let's move here we have construction pipeline in the u.s i mean yeah the numbers are up in the last decade but again they don't rival the building boom of the 70s and 80s so i think that you know relatively speaking oversupply doesn't feel like an issue i mean there'll be select pockets of softness in the us but i think that long term there's a need for replenishment and refresh of the housing stock now completion and net absorptions here's a forecast from cbr and research econometric advisors and then you're going to see a little bit of their forecasting on softer absorption in uh in 2020 to 2029 um but we think that uh it doesn't look like there's gonna be a massive imbalance the other thing that's happening is there's been a little bit of a slowing in development in downtown cores i mean that was they were leading the development charge you know in 2010 to 2019 there's a little bit of a slowing in those categories how about locally what do we see coming in our pipeline we track development projects as they're announced and then in discussion with developers we get a feel for their delivery schedules and when they're bringing these in so the last several years we've said roughly we're looking at about 7 200 units to be delivered over the forward-looking three years that number's up a little bit if we look at our forecast now we're north of 8 000 units so we see you know an increase in the development pipeline you know still not to a level of columbus or indianapolis that are in that 11 and 12 000 unit range but our development pipeline is up now you might say hmm it doesn't feel good in a pandemic you have to understand these projects take a lot of time from putting spade in the ground and moving the site work to actually renting units so our feeling is in our team that we're going to absorb those units i mean i think the first half of this year is still going to be a challenge you know as we deal with covid and the impacts but by the second half of the year i think we're going to see a recovery and pretty robust absorption going forward let's talk about some of the projects that are underway and exciting so cmc is doing uh north broadway in lebanon uh they're gonna uh first deliveries in spring of 2022 so this is on the heels of you know it's kind of interesting they did river walk flats in milford near the bike trail and near downtown and they went to lebanon excuse me and then went to loveland the loveland station near the bike trail and then downtown and now they're in lebanon near downtown lebanon on the bike trail so they have a mixed use component in here so by the way we're going to go north and work our way south plk completed alexander point had a really strong lease up in maineville heavy concentration of two and three bedroom styles so that property was done in december of 2020 and they're right at about stabilization it's a really good lease up for suburban product in maineville clock tower hills is doing 326 units in westchester one studio one and two bedroom units luxury and it kind of follows their plan that had a lot of success with palmera for instance so they're continuing in westchester it'll be walkable local businesses in the center of westchester highly amenitized elevators rooftop terrace etc etc bent and they're also doing vantage at atc near anderson town center hence the atc one and two bedroom styles in building parking we're going to have state of the art fitness there's going to be a yoga studio there again luxury product to the renter by choice highly amenitized plk gentry east in union township okay they looked at what they did at alexander point had a lot of success with two and three bedrooms so their unit mix here in gentry east is two and three bedrooms in fact they have 48 three bedrooms completion expected at the end of the year and flight work is currently underway plk is also doing the jamison i mean they're one of their buildings is actually on one of the oldest buildings in cincinnati at this property that they're preserving i think the carriage house their first deliveries the jamison coming in march they'll have full delivery by year-end in madisonville plk is also doing factory 52 this is the former u.s playing card site in norwood actually toured that site when us playing card was moving out i think oops excuse me 11 years ago let's find that i just hit my mouse because i was reaching for a prop i don't even see this but i toured us playing card as they were moving out they wanted my thoughts on whether or ot i thought it would be a great multi-family site i said yes it will be a great multi-family site in 10 or 11 years which it's a great site now because and it's going to be mixed used to have a brewery food inmate food innovation hall they're going to have retail and they're going to preserve some of the historic elements of the uh of the property at uh factory 52 52 by the way there are 52 cards in a deck if you're wondering the address is not 52 it's 52 cards in a deck okay graphite oakley hills building luxury in oakley oakley's been booming for the last 10 years and that momentum is not going to change first deliveries in q1 of 23 they're going to have under building garage elevator and access and they're going to be targeting the renter by choice 316 units one and two bedrooms garden style so excited to see that our two partners is building in columbia tuscalon this is a luxury boutique project 62 luxury units it's gonna be walkable to the precinct starbucks etcetera you're gonna have under you know i'm gonna have private parking covered parking and ultimately too when that ohio river trail gets done from downtown connecting to lunken this property is well positioned to take advantage of that pok is doing also more development in the city of cincinnati doing two projects in north side they own gantry they're filling in now with vandalia and cooper combined 94 units completing a year from now and they're going to weave these buildings into the existing fabric of the neighborhood they're going to keep existing buildings and build the new around it so excited to see that happen in north side uptown rental properties is doing our bigelow street project in mount auburn this is on the top of the hill the views are extraordinary so i've been up there the views at ground level are extraordinary now imagine the views three four and five stories in the air the panoramic views from the top of mount auburn are going to be remarkable so they're delivery they're underway their delivery will be spring of 2023. milhouse is doing artistry on the river this was the former gregory center site that at one point was going to be condominiums and by 2007 that didn't happen that site is laid fallow for the last you know 12 or 13 years milhouse is coming out of the ground now with orchestry and they're going to have artists studios they've got maker space they're going to have two-story fitness center luxury highly amenitized on the riverfront it's also directly next to a pedestrian purple people bridge so it's a two-minute walk across the bridge to newport and the levee where north american properties is making a sizable investment in repositioning that amendment the john r green lofts pop over to mainstrasse and take a look it's you know they're pretty close their first deliveries are going to be spring they're building luxury they're building top-end high-end finishes you have green space rooftop pool amenity decks uh it's pretty exciting the other one is the fitness mirror have you seen those yet you can get in front of the mirror and be led through your workout i mean they're pretty remarkable every once in a while you see one of these things and go hey that's kind of cool the fitness mirrors are very nifty so take a look at john r green the parkway trails brg is going to break down this spring that's directly across the street from amazon so we're excited to see that come out of the ground and yeah there'll probably be demand there since there's a nine million square foot distribution facility across the street lastly but not least so arlington properties did tapestry on the river now they're doing tapestry ridge at nku and this one i think was very clever because around nku if you've been to highland heights there's a lot of toppo okay in this site plan they've built it on the two high points on the site they're connecting the two phases with a walking path and there are two separate clubhouses so very thoughtful and strategic and how they laid the property out with rel relative to topography now they're gonna have and they're gonna have yoga as well seen yoga pop up a lot so ready for that fearless forecast and prognostication yes yes melissa you ready for it okay she's ready for good okay let's see what i see i first of all the scorecard how are my 2020 prognostication rent increases will average between three and three and a half percent nope that's a no vote for one occupancies will remain between 94 and 95 percent nope oh for two sale market will again trade over eight five hundred million nope it was four thirty oh for three development pipeline will slow slightly due to increased cost to build well we went from 7 200 to 8 200 units so let's see them oh for four since any reds will win the central division o for five uh cincinnati bengals will again win a game in 2020. well so i got that right so one for six oh this last one this was the money shot glo there's a global pandemic underway and the whole world's going to shut down in a moment remember when i said that no actually i didn't i cheated i put this in yesterday i wish i'd called it i made kind of a tongue-in-cheek reference to hey this could all change you know if this whole corona thing turns out to be a something something but it was tongue-in-cheek didn't know we were gonna be shutting down so given that batting average okay here's so here's the good news okay if you get so many wrong in 2020 the law of averages say more of these in 2021 are going to be right but what's going to happen yeah suburban rents they're projected to increase okay got that the urban rents are going to be flat i think we've taken the shot we've taken the hit i think you're going to see flat rents the urban cores suburban occupancies here's where they're going to range okay urban apocalypse are going to struggle i mean i think there's going to be you know some absorption issues in the first half of the year i mean again it's a temporary condition but i think we're going to be faced with some challenges in 2021 the investment market is going to set a new record in 2021 write it down okay it's going to happen absorption of new development projects okay it's going to be slow in the first half of the year then it's going to ramp up okay trust me on that one and the ground i mean it's all hinging on the gradual reopening of offices in terms of the urban core and i think you're going to see that as you see more you know shots in arms in 2021 i mean this warp speed thing was pretty remarkable that a vaccine was developed in 2021 normally those they're 20 20. those things take years and it was a remarkable feat of science but that's like spiking the ball in the 50 yard line because you got a vaccine now comes the heavy lifting it goes from a science question to a business logistics question logistics now is manufacturing billions of those doses and getting them into people and that's what we're going to be tracking i mean regardless if you think hey this whole chrono thing's the flu or i'm not coming out of my house for next three years depending on which end of the spectrum you're on relative to your economy i mean it's going to be a function of how do we do in terms of bringing this thing under control so you've got our fearless forecast for 2021 mark it down as gospel ah now that um last but not least before i get to our team photos i want to recognize my team because i get to present this information but a special thanks to kurt shoemaker marianne taylor and emily cantley for all their hard work in gathering this information compiling it distilling it and putting thoughts into dave's head that i got to communicate to you this morning i mean our hope is that in uh 2022 we all get together again oasis because i think this you know this presentation presentation's probably a lot better if we've had two or three hours of open bar leading up to it okay that's probably what we're going to find out oh oh yeah last prediction yeah the ratio of zoom calls in person meetings it's going to dramatically decrease by labor day that's my prediction i'm probably going to get that one right so our team wow the shoemaker clan and that is my partner in his green striped onesie okay so what a handsome family they are marianne taylor and her husband alex i think that was on their anniversary or maybe marianne's birthday and their dog harper i just want to let everybody know harper had his teeth cleaned last week and it went really well perky the cantley family okay no they haven't grown any further since last year that with the red mask that is santa claus okay so they haven't had an addition to the family emily and her husband devoted off to mexico and had a little down time oh yeah they picked up a cat and then my daughter boy does time fly because in the last month we now have a new licensed driver which is a whole new level of terrifying okay fingers crossed there so she's behind the wheel be careful ah so thank you everyone and as i said earlier we're going to take you know if you want to pose a couple of softball questions and i'll do my best you can do that via chat do my best to field them our team websites in the lower right you'll be able to download the deck later the gcnka will have the deck on their website some point today and then we're gonna have uh this thing on an endless video loop that you can log in and you know if you if you need a dave fix log in and watch 45 minutes more of dave all over again so we'll stand by for any questions and i'll turn it back over to our host dapper dawn well i think i'm supposed to be looking at these questions chat let's see what's going on in chat any input about corporate housing rentals and that impact on our cbd yes i mean corporate rentals are way down corporate rentals have been followed because corporations have all scaled back dramatically you know work that impact is not going to change for the foreseeable future so the corporate housing world is um you know it's it's a struggle i get i mean a lot of impacts i'll give you one example i mean anecdotally and this isn't quite on corporate housing but it's about the economic impacts of covid in the last year i have stayed in hotel rooms twice and last month i was in cleveland i stayed in 120 unit 120 room marriott courtyard the next morning i went out at 6 20 a.m and there were 12 cars in the parking lot i went back into the front desk park and said did everyone leave early because there's only 12 cars and she said well that's kind of a typical night these days in fact our maids we don't do maid service every day now we do it twice a week because we don't need them in here every day we just rent another different 15 units and they come in on wednesdays and sundays so the impact on our you know we're we're talking about unemployment what do we haven't categorized yet is underemployment don't have good data there but it exists until we get the air back in the tire we get these venues opened up for instance sporting venues travel leisure entertainment bars and restaurants i mean but those things we can open them okay but we also can't force demand if a certain half the population isn't comfortable going to them they'll be open but they won't be fully functioning we think that's going to happen i think you know boring something unforeseen hopefully by labor day we're back to a point where life seems to seem seems to be reasonable normal dave great job any any other questions from the group thank you we really appreciate you guys continuing to do this year over here it's great great information insight and we really appreciate it so thanks again to you and your team um quickly just uh want to sarah asked that we plugged the finance form again march 5th so please make sure you mark your calendars out on march 5th i want to quickly thank again the diamond sponsors apartments.com callaway contractors inc court pinnacle ppg paints royal finish sherwin williams brg fath hills town and wallach thanks again for all your support year over year and for this um last uh michelle we got two more prizes uh 25 for dunkin donuts can you hit the wheel again yeah dawn march 5th finance forum be there eight to nine eight to nine uh now get spin it again stop spin it again see if my wife was on she'd have taken that right so she's on but she would we're in person hey ross ross ross burton okay next is uh shell we got a 25 gift card to shell last one and we'll thank everybody and see everybody at the finance forum and the reverse trade show laura martin congratulations on your shell gift card guys thanks for being here we had 200 in attendance today can't thank you enough for being here dave and your team finance forum on the fifth and business exchange on march uh 17th right yeah march 17th so see everybody then thanks again thank you