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are we going to see a new wave of home buyers hitting the market over the next few weeks ing to rates.ca in January mortgage quotes were up nearly 50 percent from this time last year in this video I'll tell you why that number is important and whether or not we can expect competition amongst buyers in the market to increase as we head into the spring real estate market my name is Jesse McClellan and I'm a realtor here in Oshawa Ontario and I make video content to keep people up to date on what's going on in the real estate market here in Durham region and the GTA if you want to stay in the loop make sure you hit that subscribe button and if you find this video helpful please give it a thumbs up because it helps me reach more people like you on Thursday Insurance comparison platform rates dot CA revealed that in January mortgage renewal quotes were up by 107 and purchase quotes by close to 92 percent month over month year-over-year renewal and purchase quotes were up 49 and 48 percent respectively the monthly spike is to be expected after a slow season of home sales says the report the annual metric is much more notable that last sentence is spot on sometimes you see these big headlines about a stat like number of sales or prices being up or down some crazy number but when you dig a little deeper into it it turns out there's more to the story but with this the month over month numbers aren't really what is surprising you expect things to slow down at the end of December and beginning into January but seeing the increase to the year over year stat is what caught my eye because if you remember this time last year especially in the GTA in Durham region it was chaos for buyers this data also lines up with what we saw in January and what we're seeing right now real estate is kind of like hockey in that you have the analytical people who form opinions from data then there's the more traditional old school crowd who formed their opinions from what they can see in front of them or the eye test I like to think I'm somewhere in the middle I like to use data alongside my personal experiences on both the buying and the selling side to help me get a more well-rounded view of the market at the beginning of this year we saw multiple offers make a return and we're still seeing a lot of multiple offers on listings right now it's nothing like last year but it's nice to see the data matches what we've been noticing in the marketplace and that's an increase to buyer competition on some homes for mortgage quotes to surpass that of early 2022 when the market was still hot indicates a new wave of interested buyers seeing more interest in renewals doesn't come as a surprise as rates are much higher than they were five years ago incentivizing Canadians to shop around for better deals while renewing with a different lender may allow borrowers to secure a lower rate the report cautions that passing the mortgage stress test requires qualifying at almost a seven percent interest rate despite this hurdle an increase in quotes for both mortgage renewals and purchases indicates a willingness to make Financial assessments to enter or remain in the housing market this spring it adds that buyers may be motivated by the belief that home prices have finally bottomed out although some experts caution that we haven't seen the last of interest rate hikes inflation clocked in at a still lofty 5.9 percent in January a ways from the bank of Canada's two percent Target the report notes that the hope of rate stability may be enough to tempt buyers to make their moves in the coming months this is exactly what's happening and like I said it matches what we're seeing in the market as soon as the Bank of Canada has signaled it may pause the interest rate hikes for now we have seen multiple offer situations and buyer competition increase when home prices are increasing like we saw at the beginning of last year that causes many home buyers to put their search on hold and say we'll wait for prices to come down but usually what many buyers actually mean is that I'll wait for prices to come down and then start to go back up up again because when prices come down quickly consumer confidence in the market starts to fall and they want to see it turn around again or see something that suggests the worst is over and I understand that it's just buyers trying to protect their families and their finances but what I've mentioned a few times over the past six to ten months is that you have all these people waiting on the sidelines while prices are dropping and they're waiting for that window of opportunity for something that shows the worst is over now the Bank of Canada has signaled it may pause rate hikes and buyers are coming back out this was pretty predictable what's not predictable is whether or not we'll see enough inventory coming onto the market at the same time to help offset the added demand and it's possible we do with the combination of the spring market and some people feeling Financial pressure to sell but it's also possible and very likely that this increased buyer demand will be for homes in the entry-level price point of each market so I would expect to see competition increase on those properties and possibly even a small increase in price ing to rates.ca's mortgage quota data fixed rate quote volumes have been 75 percent higher than variable rate quote volumes over the past four months compared to a year prior fixed rate quotes were up 121 in January while variable quotes Rose only 46 this preference is a far cry from the influx of interest in variable rates spurred by the ultra low interest rate environment prior to March 2022 after the long series of hikes that made variable mortgage rates exceed fixed since then fixed interest rates have once again become the more favorable option variable rates are higher for the first time in a long time so it's to be expected that fixed rates applications are up people flock to whatever gives them the higher pre-approval as much as we can say people took variable in 2022 because historically variable rates work out cheaper and then people are taking fixed rates now because they want to lock in rates and not worry about more hikes I really think it just comes down to what will allow the buyer to qualify for the highest purchase price in such a competitive market in 2022 variable rates were lower and allowed you to qualify for more and now the opposite is true and fixed rates are lower people want to maximize what they can afford and taking a lower rate allows you to qualify for a bit more house so that's what many buyers will do now I'm not saying that's always what you should do just pointing out the why in addition down payment amounts fell seven percent year over year in January the report attributes this in part to softening home prices as home prices fall below the 1 million dollar Mark particularly in expensive cities like Toronto and Vancouver buyers can choose to put less than 20 percent down and opt for an insured mortgage which often allows for lower interest rates than an uninsured mortgage plus the cost to ensure the mortgage is spread throughout the term rather than one lump sum making monthly payments more men manageable despite putting less down up front while monthly carrying costs have not become much more affordable in most scenarios and in fact sometimes the very opposite the cash needed up front for a down payment is more affordable mortgage quotes are up and ing to rates.ca mortgage expert Victor Tran quotes will lead to action recently there has been a substantial uptick in mortgage pre-approvals following the bank of Canada's indication that it would hit pause on raising rates people that were waiting on the sidelines over the past several months for the market to stabilize are now taking advantage of this window of opportunity it's worth noting that a spike in quotes in January is a seasonal Norm still potential revisions to loan to income threshold guidelines which could limit buyers to lower mortgage loans by Q3 or Q4 of this year and the threat of further interest rate increases could also be driving the uptick in applications I believe the Bank of Canada wanted to see how can consumers and the market would react to them pausing rate hikes but I could also see a scenario where the Bank of Canada raises interest rates again later in the year if they don't see the reaction that they want which is inflation continuing to come down towards their two percent Target if we were to see revisions to the loan to income guidelines for mortgages I think we could see a substantial drop in prices as that affects all buyers across the board who would be requiring a mortgage to purchase a home and that's the vast majority of buyers this would be similar to the effects we saw from the introduction of the stress test and what we saw with rate increases last year for reference the guideline changes would include adopting a loan to income threshold of 450 percent or 4.5 times your annual income and since March of 2020 one-third of mortgages have surpassed 450 percent LTI so if that were to come into place that would absolutely have an effect on home prices once again I don't think the possible LTI changes are what's influencing The increased buyer demand lately but probably more because we're heading into the spring Market things always pick up plus the Bank of Canada holding off on any immediate rate increases has likely helped increase consumer confidence and bring more buyers back out but before I go I do have two questions for you what do you think will happen with the spring Market will we see more buyer competition continue to pick up or will the increased inventory calm that demand down and what do you think of the possible new loan to income thresholds we may see in the later half of the year as always thank you so much for watching and sticking around until the end if you have any questions you can always use the first link in the description to book a call with me at a time that works best for you subscribe to the channel if you want to see more and I'll see you in the next one next week bye [Music]