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These are the EU election results and  the EPP group absolutely smashed it,   gaining an extra 10 seats compared to  last time. But there was all this buzz   about a far-right surge, but it doesn't  really look like it, right? I mean the   ECR and I&D definitely grew but can that be  labelled as a surge? Well, hold on a sec. Check out this massive pot of 100 unaffiliated  members. If they were to join the I&D,   the ECR, or any other group, things  could get interesting real fast. So which parties are currently unaligned? There are quite a few, but let's  focus on the seven biggest ones: The German AfD with 15 seats,  gaining 4 additional seats.  The Hungarian Fidesz party with 11 seats,   losing 2 seats. The Italian 5 Star   Movement with 9 seats, gaining 4 seats. The Polish Confederation with 6 seats,   gaining 6 seats. The German BSW with 6 seats, up from 0,  And The Romanian AUR party and  Slovakia’s SMER, with 5 seats each. Out of these, four can be classified as far-right  parties, contributing an additional 13 seats. Now,   let's examine the right-wing conservative ECR  and the far-right I&D at the European level,   both of which also gained seats. Adding all  these seats together, the right-wing to far-right   representation becomes even more significant  than initially thought. Not to mention, there   are smaller non-affiliated far right parties who  gained 1 or 2 seats that we haven't covered today. Currently, these parties are not  affiliated with any European groups. Looking ahead, we see two possible  scenarios for these 7 unaffiliated parties. One, the parties join existing  European political groups. These parties can be split into two camps. We  have the right-wing to far-right parties that   want better ties with Russia and don't support  Ukraine. Then, we have the more left-wing to   far-left parties that prioritise peace and  also want to normalise relations with Russia. The first right-wing camp mostly aligns  with the Identity and Democracy (I&D) group,   as they share eurosceptic  and nationalistic ideologies. Here is a quick overview of the I&D group and  their affiliated parties, which hold seats in   nine European countries. Notably, more than half  of I&D's seats come from Marine Le Pen's party,   National Rally, in France. Currently, the I&D  group holds 58 seats. The Unaffiliated Right-Wing   parties hold 37 seats. So If all the unaffiliated  right-wing parties were to join I&D, the group   would gain an additional 37 seats, catapulting  them to become the third-largest party in the EU. Is this scenario even realistic? You might remember that the AfD was expelled  from the I&D group only a couple of weeks   ago due to AfD lead candidate Maximilian  Krah's inability to unequivocally condemn   all Nazis. Among other reasons,  this stance was too extreme for   Le Pen, leading her to remove them. For more  information, we have a video linked above. Given this recent history, it seems unlikely that  the I&D would welcome them back, right? However,   the Italian news agency ANSA reports that Lega,  one of the biggest parties in the I&D group,   sees the readmission of AfD as a possibility,  following the expulsion of Maximilian Krah.   Ultimately, though, Le Pen holds significant  influence and shut down the idea again   yesterday. We think Le Pen sees this as too  risky before the French elections later this   month. But after these elections we think it is  possible to see the AfD back in the I&D group. Next, Fidesz, Viktor Orban's party, could  decide to stay in the unaffiliated camp,   as he didn't show any particular interest  during the previous legislature into   joining a new political group after  being kicked out of the EPP group. As for Confederation and AUR, we see both  of them as more likely to join the I&D than   Fidesz. However, there are issues here  as well. The Confederates are extreme   and are good friends with the AfD, and  given the recent expulsion of the AfD,   their admission is complicated. So we can  only really see them joining together with   the AfD. But love to hear from Polish and Romanian  watchers in the comments to hear your thoughts. Therefore, we feel the I&D could gain 26  seats but only after the French elections,   but this is pure speculation and time will tell. So back to the overview with the  2 camps in the non-affiliated   pile. We have just talked about  camp 1, but what about camp 2? The second camp could join  The Left, but we see this   possibility as unlikely. The unaffiliated  parties are generally not extreme left;   they tend to hold more center-left  positions on most matters. Additionally,   they have differing perspectives on migration  and climate change. Their common ground with   The Left is primarily limited to their populist  approach and their stance on the war in Ukraine. However, there are rumours that this second  camp might be contemplating the formation of   a new EU political group instead of joining the  existing ones. Which brings us to our scenario 2. For example, the right-wing to far-right camp   could create their own group even  further to the right of the I&D. Similarly, the left-wing to far-left camp  could create an alternative to the S&D group,   focusing on a center-left position  but opposing EU support for Ukraine. To create a new group, you require at least  23 MEPs from at least 7 countries. Looking at   today's unaffiliated members, neither  side meets this requirement. However,   there are many small parties  that are still unaffiliated,   and they might be able to sway parties  in current political groups to join them. First, let’s look at the unaffiliated far-right  parties in Europe. It's no secret that they find   it hard to work together. For instance,  Orban from Fidesz has previously openly   worn a Greater Hungary scarf, depicting parts of  Romania as belonging to Hungary. It's no wonder   that the Romania AUR would be reluctant  to work with him after such provocations,   especially given their very different ideologies. AUR has stated that they do not want to join  any group that includes Fidesz. Additionally,   there are already two well-established  right-wing to far-right groups in the   EU parliament, and creating a third  would only further divide the right. On the left side of the spectrum, a new group  seems a bit more realistic. This is especially   true for Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht (also called  BSW), the 2nd largest among the left-leaning   unaffiliated parties, whose policy ideas  don't align with any existing European group. Their policies include: Rejection of sending weapons to Ukraine and a  demand for the European government to push for   peace negotiations, which critics view as naïve  appeasement that could be exploited by Moscow.  Opposition to further EU  and Atlanticist integration.  A somewhat socially conservative stance,  arguing that gender and sexuality issues   are overemphasized, distracting  from more relevant economic issues.  Advocacy for stricter immigration  limits than currently in place.  Critique of the current approach to a greener  economy, with climate change not being as central   to the party’s policy platform as it is for  most other left-of-center parties in Europe. No European political group currently stands for  these policies. Wagenknecht could potentially   gain support from Slovakia’s SMER and Italy’s  5 Star Movement, but she would still need to   secure 4 MEPs from at least 4 other countries.  The question remains: where will she get them? So these are the 2 options going  forwards for each of the two camps. At EU Made Simple, we think that the  most likely scenario is that some of   the unaffiliated parties on the screen  will join the existing political groups. It seems likely that after the French election,  the I&D group will grow, potentially with the AfD,   the Confederals and AUR. For now, we believe  that Fidesz will stay unaffiliated. As for BSW,   SMER and the Five Star movement, we don't see  them joining any existing political group. So   they will likely stay unaffiliated unless  they find enough friends for a new group.  But what do you think? Any other opinions on  what can happen with these parties? Let us   know in the comments because all of this is  pure speculation. Thank you for Filippo for   helping us with this video. If you enjoy this  content, please like the video and subscribe.   And thank you to our amazing Patrons who  keep the channel going. Until next time!