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hey guys welcome this week's fin 5 we take you through the latest impr property and finance this week we're going through the rising cost of deposits the latest investment Trends and some huge government symptoms that have hit the ground this week that's right Jaden we'll also be talking about the increasing mortgage stress amongst Australian homeowners and what this means for first home buyers plus we've got a lively Reddit discussion comparing the affordability of Melbourne and Brisbane so if you're home buyer you're looking to invest whatever you're at we've got something here for you so let's get started all right well let's dive into into the first story for today it's the latest forecast from A&Z about interest rates so previously most of the banks were saying there's going to be rate Cuts sooner than later in the 2024 calendar year but those expectations have been pushed back with a actually saying that the rate Cuts aren't going to come until early 2025 so this delay can have pretty big impacts to you if you're looking at getting the market could mean your borrowing capacity isn't going to go up anytime soon if there's no rate cuts and if you're currently in the market it could mean your repairment is going to stay higher for longer yeah so let's just jump into the details here up until recently uh all the big four Banks were pretty much aligned with their expectations on rate Cuts so they all said rates are probably going to drop in November this year but a and Z's kind of just uh separated from the pack they actually think it's going to be a bit later than that it's interesting to note that another fellow here from Judo Bank Warren Hogan he actually thinks that uh interest rates are going to go up so uh a lot of different opinions here um did he change his job title from chief economic officer to fellow yeah but you're right it's interesting yeah I think Warren Hogan was one of the the outliers there that said the cash rate had to go up three or four times which was I think a bit of a headline grab but definitely the the latest data coming out of the government there's a lot of uh you know tax drops later in the year there's cost of living rebates there's also an election year which anded saying well you know these things could actually be inflation atory it could push the inflation up it could mean the Reserve Bank isn't able to cut rates as high as they could but then there's other data points here s that could say you know with some of the changes in hardship that it could end up going the other way yeah look this is always a I would hate to be in the Reserve Bank personally because it's not an easy job you know they have to basically try and balance uh inflationary pressures to make sure that inflation doesn't happen too quickly and they have to try and balance that with all the other needs that related to interest rates so you know house prices mortgage hge ship and all these other things so not an easy job and um certainly not one that I would ever take anytime soon but there is some data here that is showing that financial hardship related to mortgages has actually been on the increase so Asic data uh recently revealed a 54% rise in hardship notices in the last Financial quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year so they're calling for banks to enhance support for struggling borrowers You know despite Morgan interest threats though um on average most Australian Bowers are still managing to re meet their repayments so it's a a bit of an increase but it's from a low base so it's not as concerning as it might sound at at first glance yeah the current spin rate so that's snp's uh performance index rate of mortgages that are in delinquencies are below 1% it's 0.93 so historically it's still really low it's coming up crazy low base you we've had 13 14 interest rate Rises over the last couple of years so they were expecting it but fortunately we've had a pretty robust job market so that's the other data point that the reserve bank's you know checking out and making sure well if immigration comes off if you know the unemployment goes up that's where they might have to pull these leaders sooner rather than later definitely it's looking like yeah there could be a bit of a changing landscape there with with what the predictions are with interest rates yeah I suppose at this point it's worth just mentioning if you are listening and and you are experiencing some you know financial hardship or mortgage stress there are certainly some options to to explore so a lot of banks actually offer hardship programs so it's always worth having a chat to your bank if you are struggling probably the other big one which can give you a decent win is to look at refinancing your mortgage so you can often get a better deal if you're looking at switching banks you can sometimes find a better rate uh you can there's a lot of options that you can do to sort of make your mortgage more affordable so it's worth exploring your options there for sure yeah and there are some government programs that can help you in feere financial hardship but I think I'd support your point Simon like if if you're having issues use chatsi Bank First like they've got a lot of programs they can look at changing on recently whose partner lost their job like well what should we do they contact the bank and they change them to interest earning repayments for just a short period just to help them get through that next couple weeks while she finds a job and gets into it so definitely not worth digging head in the sand for that for sure U you know while we're on the subject of uh financial hardship you know there is some upcoming measures that will ease household pressures so you know there's these tax cuts and Energy rebates that will be helpful so if you you were hoping to have a a rate cut earlier than expected and it's not quite reached and you're feeling a bit like you're struggling then you know at least there is going to be some relief on the way as well but you know the thing is it's kind of like in Co when the then Reserve Bank Governor said interest rates would be on hold for the next four years and got that wrong with these Economist forecasts much like the weathermen they can be the best weather person in the world but get the forecast wrong twice a day and these economists are no different so these are just the you know based on assumptions based on lots of data points I think things could change later in the year and that's what even the other banks are saying so it's it's probably a case of you know running your own race if you're looking at getting into the market maybe factoring a rate rise or two but it looks like that the rate Cuts will probably come next rather than going up for sure yeah and it I suppose you know if you are looking at expecting to have a rate cut as a home buyer you think oh well I mean that's going to make you know the mortgage a bit more difficult maybe my bowering capacity is lower than I'd hoped it was going to be but there is a benefit here as well so whenever rates get dropped house prices go up so that's just a rule you know people have more borrowing capacity it's more affordable to get a home so the price of a home will go up when interest rates get dropped so if you're able to get in now before these rate Cuts happen you'll actually probably be able to get a better deal so it's not necessarily the worst news if you're looking at buying at this stage in fact can be to your advantage so let moving on to the next segment actually the Queensland government so a couple of things that have changed similar thing happened in South Australia as well last week but focusing on Queensland uh the first homeowner concession has increased so previously if your first home buyer buying in Queensland dity was waved up to $500,000 it's been increased to $700,000 and between 7 to 800 you get a bit of a discount so it just means you can get into a home with a bit less deposit you could get into a home for say 700,000 previously you'd need about 55,000 as the minimum savings um to get including your stamp Duty you're saving $7 $18,000 so you only need about 35,000 plus or minus to get in so it's a huge huge difference there but offset that Simon I think they've they've made some changes to the foreign investor search charge as well yeah that's right so so they wanted to you know give a a bit of an advantage to Australian first home buyers to you know increase the threshold which is great news and in order to sort of offset that they've increased a 3% land tax search charge for international foreign investors which is actually aligns with what New South Wales and Victoria are doing currently as well you know the foreign investors contribute more which balances the impact of the increased concession so the you know it's a bit of a a seesaw situation but certainly good news for the Australian first home buyers rather than foreign investors no definitely uh really good news St out of there so it we to see what the federal government does with the home guarantee scheme so that renew on the 1st of July and at the moment in in Brisbane uh in Queensland well Brisbane Metro it's up to $700,000 for that scheme so that's a 5% deposit scheme you know Victoria it's 800,000 F it's 900 so I just wonder if there's going to be any changes to those because that schem has been in place three or four years and and and those amounts haven't really changed as much as the market has in that time so it'll be interesting to see what happens there on next one Simon how much do you need for a house deposit in each Aussie City now kav here to like obviously there's some crazy numbers we've gone through the D last couple of weeks we've seen some price growth and because of that I guess the Saving Times are increasing too absolutely like the property Market it's been a wild ride and I don't think it's ever not been a wild ride around here for the the past decade or so you never know what's going to happen and prices are just kind of you know you never know where they're going to go but let's just kind of dive into the sort of the details here and you know look at what's changed since 5 years ago just to kind of give you a bit of perspective about why it feels more expensive to buy a home so you know in Sydney median house price is now 1.42 million uh which is up from 1.14 million in 2019 so if you're looking for the standard 20% deposit that's increased by uh $55,850 so a lot of money for sure and actually just cutting you s like on that we're actually working on a video right now um which will'll publish in the next few weeks so make sure you subscribe to the channel but going through a couple of other ways of getting into the market especially at these price points where in Sydney if you're buying for 1.4 million it falls outside of the home guarantee scheme there are some other products that are available on the market now where you can buy a home with a 5% deposit sometimes less including one from a bank and said started an LMI waiver with a 5% deposit the minimum price is over $2 million which sounds crazy it's it's like a high income one but there are a couple Elders out there so we work on a video that'll be out in the next couple of weeks to to Pish to get in because you don't necessarily need a 20% deposit even when you're buying outside these these um home guarantee scheme thresholds yep thanks for the jump in there buddy it's a good information let's just uh get back to some of the figures here just to cover them off so in Melbourne median house price is $941,000 which is up from 92,000 so you'd need an extra 6,400 for the 20% deposit depos it so you know nowhere near as much of the jump as as in Sydney Brisbane on the other hand has absolutely surged so in 2019 the median house price was $583,000 and it's currently sitting at $920,000 yeah some huge jumps there that have sort of gone up with a deposit and I guess um we we'll include some of the links below for for some of these increases but like I said there's probably have to be different ways of approaching it cuz just in a lot of cases your income's not going to go up by you know in Sydney you have to save another $55,000 over those few years period or potentially get in that's why a lot of people sometimes choose to get in sooner rather than later is get in the market and and start paying down your loan but we we have seen I guess adding to that pressure Simon with some of the incentives and everything else on know different gear investors getting back into the market so not just first home buyers I guess especially in in per and some of those cities like it's it's been a big gold rush to to get an investment property as quick as possible that's right they um investors they're diving back into the market at a rate that we haven't seen in over 2 years so a huge amount of investor activity in the market especially in some of the main capital cities so new home loan commitments to investors grew by 5.6% from March which is the fastest increase since November 2021 so people are seeing that there's money to be made and they're looking at investing in property you know that's kind of driven by the huge growth that we've seen in some of these markets Perth at and Brisbane so these are more affordable markets well especially Perth is one of the best deals out there and it has good rental yields as well one of the reasons why perth's rental market is so good is that it just has it's got a really low vacancy rate the lowest amongst all of the capital cities so it puts upwards pressure on rent so people are coming in to invest because they're expecting to be able to get a good return with increasing rents and increasing property prices as well and that does mean more competition if you're a first home buyer because I think we've covered this a few times s but investors and first home buyers you're often competing for similar properties so if you're going out there to buy expect that you might have a bit more competition now from some of the property investors as well so next up let's go through the latest cor logic housing report I'll include the links below there's been some big changes and I guess like following down that path like a bit of change in the rental yield space too so let's go through I guess say from the top the biggest S I was surprised at so Australia's residential real estate market is valued at 10 .7 trillion making up 56.2% of household wealth so 56.2% more than half of our household wealth is made up by residential housing which is just uh an insane thing to think about yeah well they always say that the home that you buy is probably the biggest investment you'll ever make in your life and I think this really shows that so there's a lot of lot of wealth bound up into these houses and that's why owning your own home in Australia has always been the dream you know it's it's not only the place to live it's also a source of wealth so you know this is kind of is supported by the growth in the market so dwelling values overall in Australia increased by 1.9% in the 3 months to may 20124 even the properties in the lower quartile so the bottom 25% they Rose faster so they Rose at 3% in the same quarter so that means that the price segment of the market is growing even faster than the rest of it despite this recent quarterly growth the annual growth actually has slowed So 88.3% currently from 99.4% earlier in the year with the combined Regional capitals only growing 6.8% compared to the combined capitals growing at 88.8% so in the last quarter there's been significant growth but year on year it's not quite as rapid as it has been in the past yeah looking at the city specific Trends you know Sydney dwelling values increased by 1.9% over the quarter 8.8% annually it was similar story in Brisbane uh Perth was up 22% with a quarterly increase of 6.1% I guess the interesting part of that is more if you're in the market and looking it goes to show where you know if if you kind of leave it 6 months if you leave it a quarter potentially you're going to have to recalibrate your prices um so if you are looking one FR frustration I see all the time is you might have been looking for the last six months you're like well that doesn't make sense like that house sold for 500,000 or maybe more than 500,000 you know for argument sake 500,000 in September last year now they're wanting potentially you know 550 or 600 or just because of the price so you need to factor some of these in there because the the recent comparable sales if you looking from sales six months ago aren't going to factor that in and really this is underscored by the new listing so we've actually started to see an increase here this is nationally so it's not it's all different depending on the postcode in the area but in four weeks to June 2nd new listings um were actually up 177% um from the same period last year so that that's good it's going to give more options and hopefully ease some of the upwards pressure on prices but still historically pretty low you know the number of listings remains subdued with uh a 1.6 total listing so like available stock in the market slightly lower um year on year so means that the properties are still getting snapped up pretty quickly they're not staying in the market available uh yep and so the rental markets um as anybody who's renting would know uh the National rental rates increased by 88.5% annually and cities with a 99.1% rise so you know increased rentals is something that I think is a you know big issue with the affordability crisis and it's going to probably continue to rise unfortunately because uh there is a pretty low overall vacancy rate across the country so I think one of the other things to consider if you are thinking about buying a home there's that you know every year that you wait your rent's also going to take a bigger chunk of your cash and uh you know why would you want to pay someone else's home loan when you could be paying your own if you can find a way to get in there and and make it happen then uh you know you'll be doing better in a lot of ways for sure yeah there's definitely more needed there but unfortunately there's more stock I think it's still going to be more pressure we've also seen the national median time on Market so how long the property s of sit around before they get sold was was it 31 days so it's pretty steady compared to last year but I guess to Echo your point earlier per was was just insane so the median time Market was 10 days so stuff is just selling in in probably minutes there not even time for the first open so you just need to except depending on what stage you're at at your journey if you're like a lot of the people we help where you might be just looking online getting a feel for things it can sometimes be worthwhile just getting out there and getting a feel for actually how things are on the ground in your specific suburb in the types of properties you're looking at cuz I've had a couple of surprises lately where you know couple clients and people have helped we're looking at apartments thinking oh it should be pretty easy shouldn't be that competitive and and we're actually because of the affordability and even like you saying with that data before and that the sort of lower more affordably priced proper is is actually becoming more Dem manic so that's where everyone can kind of get into the market you in that sort of Market I think it's important to keep in mind that you want to be pre-approved for your loans so if you are in the market looking hit us up at Hunt Galloway we make sure pre-approval is fully assessed so at least when you find a place you can jump on it really quickly yeah and on that note Jaden uh you we talk about these markets like the Australian Market or even the Sydney or the Perth Market but really there's there's no such thing as one property Market the Australian Market is different from each City and even in each City there are different regions that have their own Dynamics so as you said getting your boots on the ground and actually going to look at what's happening in the suburbs that you're interested in is really the best way to see what's happening and what your approach has to be if you're in a hot Market where their properties are selling in 10 days I mean that's a very different Beast to a place where the median sale time is 45 or 60 days you got to look at how much you're offering for the property and potentially what kind of Clauses you're offering in the finance Clauses and all these other bits and pieces I moving on to the next Point yeah saw this interesting on Reddit earlier in the week where it was comparing you know Brisbane now being the the second most expensive uh city in Australia you know someone was Raising well buying an apartment in Melbourne is actually cheaper than Brisbane for me it was jarring like having grown up in Brisbane we're always you know seem to be affordable and easy to get into and Melbourne seemed unattainable and expensive and it's it's crazy to think that this has flipped itself around yeah when we grew up we were always told Brisbane is just a a big country town you know and Melbourne was like a proper City like when I was a kid as Melbourne seemed almost like a New York of Australia in a certain way and I guess I mean times always change and if you're looking to buy an apartment in Melbourne you can actually get in for a lower median property price although they are a little different so uh the the size of melmo Apartments can be a bit smaller due to the different building standards that they've had you probably having a bit less living space on the flip side though if you you know want to change cities and look at living in Melbourne I mean it's a fantastic city with a great lifestyle more of that Cafe environment tons of amenities certainly a lot of people really love it there so that's another consideration if you are you know looking and you're finding Brisbane more expensive than you like you know why not look at a different city yeah I actually found it interesting some of the the melbour nights melbour HS what you want to call them I we're just saying like some of the apartments in Melbourne the way they were built it can be more common to have bedrooms without windows so that it's kind of sort had like you know not super liable and also with the changes in their clut laws in Melbourne I have had some clients that have found some amazingly cheap apartments you 350,000 great locations uh but they're having to do remediation so their buildings are covered in combustible cladding and and so it might seem really cheap until you review or you find out like that's weird that's been on the market for six months and and discover that there's actually some underlying issues there so you definitely want to do your due diligence before you buy something plan H absolutely and i' probably wouldn't also be buying side on scene from uh a different state or a different city you know that you want to get in there and see the property in person and make sure you know what you're buying with as you say with the due diligence one of the most important things is checking out the strata and seeing you know what the state of the the buildings are and what kind of liabilities there are as well you don't want to buy a place and find out you've got a $50,000 contribution to a major structural issue with the building for sure yeah and this stuff can change pretty quickly so like s mentioned an episode a couple of weeks back where in Brisbane it was probably seven or eight years ago so it was it was a fair while ago but there was a bit of a glut of apartments in brisbane's for Value uh you rentals really cheap apartments were plentiful it was a it was a great time to be alive I guess if you're trying to get an apartment in the city or in the Valley now you know because of limited construction and different things that there's not been that much but it can turn around pretty quickly so hopefully with the government really recognizing the local councils recognizing that you know supplies an issue with some change to town planning hopefully we should see this getting addressed in the short term to to help you know that affordability as well all right well I guess it's probably time to wrap things up you know we've covered a fair amount today and you know we started off looking at the interest rates and what that means for you if you're either a home buyer or if you currently have a mortgage either way there is unlikely to be any rate drops at by before November at the earliest maybe even in February even later then we had a look at the first home buyer concessions so the increase in stamp Duty uh concessions for uh Queensland home buyers is a huge win I think that's a great thing you can save nearly $20,000 on on a home which is fantastic we covered a bit about the deposits and how that has changed and also we had a discussion about a little teaser there Jaden for some ways that you might be able to have a lower deposit even with a more expensive property that goes outside of the the government schemes and grants uh quick little review here at the monthly housing chart pack from core logic and what's been happening in the market overall and then we wrapped it up with a little coverage of the Melbourne vers Brisbane apartment Showdown thanks so much for watching guys if you need any help hit us up at hunt.com until next time we'll see you [Music]