Can I Sign Indiana Banking Presentation

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okay we've got everything resolved now good morning everyone and welcome to our 2021 economic outlook series sponsored by first merchants bank and powered by our friends at ball state university i'm brent talcott regional president with first merchants and i'm excited to be hosting this economic outlook program where we will cover data and observations at the national level the state level and importantly to each of us at the local level for a number of years first merchants has partnered with ball state to bring economic forecasts to communities in east central indiana and more recently in ohio now we are taking the next step by expanding that work across our entire bank footprint of indiana illinois ohio and michigan if you are new to these economic forecasts you will see why we value this relationship and why we are excited to bring you the work of dr michael hicks and his research team at ball state as a distinguished professor of economics and director of the center of business and economic research at ball state university dr hicks's research and insight has been reported in a number of national news outlets and publications prior to entering the field of economics dr hicks served his country in the army reserve and he is proud to have two of his children following in his footsteps as cadets in the air force academy and vmi as dr heats covers his economic forecast you will have the opportunity to submit questions to him we will take the questions in the order submitted so as thoughts arise please go ahead and submit them through the q a chat feature on your screen the current slide shows you what the q a icon looks like and with that we feel very fortunate to have dr hicks with us here today so without further ado i'd like to turn the presentation over to dr michael hicks please go ahead sir thank you so very much and sorry for the delay let's um what i'd like to do this morning is give you a quick snapshot of where the u.s economy is uh where the indiana economy is i'm going to compare the two and then move into the greater lafayette area and so if i can have next slide please all right and could we move forward to the next slide indiana economy and then the first of this is uh the next slide would be the u.s and really indiana gdp growth so what this graphic provides is both a historical evaluation of gross domestic product for indiana and the nation as a whole and you can see leading up to covet or 2020's challenges with a pandemic we had seen a significant slowing in 2019 um both for the nation and the state uh 2018 was a reasonably robust year just under three percent growth i want to contextualize this that between the end of world war ii to 2007 the u.s averaged about three and a half percent per year so those years of growth uh both in indiana and the nation that were under three percent reflect a fairly modest period of gdp growth in the u.s economy although labor markets were performing quite well as we move into covid obviously anybody who's been paying to the economy any attention understands that this was a period of extraordinary difficulty really beginning in the second week of march the economy slowed profoundly um spending in consumer areas across any of those face-to-face services plummeted by 60 70 80 depending on which income category you observe and that gave us the worst uh single year or single quarter of gdp loss in history um and then a recovery in third quarter as businesses adjusted and households begin to adjust their spending patterns we saw the most rapid one-quarter recovery in history and as we look at the full year of 2020 i believe we're going to see indiana coming in at about 4.6 negative growth and just about 4.1 percent loss for the u.s this is tempered a little bit by data that was released this morning the gdp now data actually had the fourth quarter gdp the december part of it may be rising by one percent so we may be as much as two tenths of a percent better than this given data that i observed this morning and our projections in the indiana econometric model for 2021 and 2022 have the united states recovering fairly strongly in the excess of two percent uh range in this year of course that's dependent upon the speed with which covid disappears where our assumption is that by mid-summer we're going to be returning mostly to normal and then 2022 is going to look more like a historical year which growth in indiana downed at about 2 next slide please of course that overall performance which returns we think pretty much to normal by the end of 2021 normal being we're no longer being pummeled by the pandemic but we're still facing a significant lag of employment is this k-shaped recovery and these data are from a group at harvard called opportunity insights that track income and we break into three categories and this really ends in in early january and what we see [Music] or excuse me november what we see is a recovery that um you know a pattern of job losses in recovery that really impacted incomes uh household by income very differently so if you're in the top third of incomes which is incomes a little bit over sixty thousand dollars per year um we're actually up those those households are actually up for this year about 1.2 to 1.5 percent by thanksgiving so this was a slow year of employment growth not a catastrophe for middle-income household those uh um individual jobs that are between twenty nine thousand and sixty thousand dollars a year uh we saw a loss about four percent so this is great recession job law level of job losses for middle-income households and for the bottom third of households these are households with or individual workers making under 29 000 a year we see job losses between 19 and 20 percent as of mid-november this is really great depression level job losses so um when we call that k-shaped recovery is really the top half we're doing reasonably well a modest downturn and the bottom half of american consumers or american workers are facing uh you know once in a lifetime levels of employment loss and that's going to play out as we go down the road regarding what we think recovery will look like for regions depending upon the overall effect of the recovery on employment at this lower category and you'll see some concerns that i have in that in a minute next slide please deborah this slide shows indiana real gdp and personal income and for 2020 we see real gdp down here in indiana significantly we see a recovery in 21 and 22 back to traditional levels but the personal income for 2020 spike we actually saw we are anticipating growth about five and a half percent for this year or for last year which we attribute to the cares act the stimulus payment that started uh flowing into many households in april and the supplementary unemployment insurance for pandemic the pandemic unemployment assistance and the pandemic unemployment emergency continuation payments which were higher through than typical ui through august and so what we saw here is a fairly effective government stimulus program that in in many ways helped better frame both the downturn prevented a shift of a number of households onto other types of public assistance and i think very importantly also provided a backfill for a lot of state and local taxes next slide please so in this next slide we look at real gdp in indiana and the covet affected sectors and these are really the ones that we identified and i think everyone else did early as having both a great deal of face-to-face interaction which would be affected by covet and of course in finance the expectations of households that there would be growth in households and businesses that there would be growth this year that would spawn new investment so we see very large shocks to accommodations food services arts entertainment in 2020 and then a fairly robust recovery we think for example next year retail didn't do as poorly american households shifted their consumption from services at restaurants and accommodations to goods uh but you know even though we had a fairly good christmas retail sales were almost 12 below there are 2019 levels in christmas so we're seeing fairly big shocks in those sectors as well and that could uh not a very robust retail recovery in 2021 and 20 22. i think that's pretty much what i want to talk about in that slide you know finance i guess rather important monetary policy obviously responded in early march which was just a few weeks after the recession was officially determined to have begun in february so we had i think relatively early monetary and fiscal policy compared to previous downturns where there were delays in both monetary and fiscal policy by as many as 24 months we saw a very early and aggressive move by the federal reserve to reduce interest rates and for some instruments are now below zero in real terms particularly you know federal uh short-term bonds and so what we're observing are that flow of capital through the the transmission monetary policy that would reduce the damage to the economy if we look at the other sectors the real gdp growth in other sectors and these are ones that i'm saying are not particularly affected by covid in terms of their day interaction they were affected but you know manufacturing for example the chief challenge in 2020 were supply chain interruptions not demand for services a utility saw a modest bump uh my concern in utilities here is that for a number of the the data for 2020 may not be clear yet because of the stimulus because of moratorium on risk you know removing customers from service who didn't pay we might not have a really good picture of some smaller utility challenges but for the larger utilities in the sector as a whole 2020 went on fairly unabated construction was down in real gdp growth although we saw a fairly strong housing market through 2020 as a consequence of the steep declines in mortgage interest rates that did exactly what the federal reserve wished them to do and then other sectors for example health care we would have expected the with hospitals full that they would be doing better but in fact they did not it turns out their most profitable sectors are not those in icu or dealing with cove had been in other areas and so really no part of our economy escaped damage but the more lasting effects as i'll talk about in a minute are really tied to the shock of face-to-face customer interaction in hotels accommodation and restaurants next slide please just a quick summary here you know i want to make very clear that we're in the midst of a deep economic downturn um this year is the worst and there are many only five since we've been capturing data that is bad as this year and that's really 1946 we saw a big gdp slump in 1945 and 1946 as we stopped making tanks and shipped it into automobiles and homes and then the other bad gears that are comparable to this are really 1932 1933 uh 1937 and so this is in you know i think uh real terms very much like a great risk depression event particularly for the third to a half of households where employment losses are really close to what we saw over a two to three year period in the early 1930s so the peak unemployment for a year in the u.s our single month was just over 24 in the summer of 1933 and if we look at what's happened to people whose incomes are under 30 000 that's about where we are now so it's a very very deep shock to the economy the vaccine brings optimism but some of the damage to labor markets will be deep and lasting so if we look at permanent job losses in the united states they're back at about 2013 levels what that means is enough businesses have gone away in their entirety that it's going to take six or seven years to work through that number of unpermanently unemployed through business creation so the concern in the original cares act with the patient protection or the payroll protection plan and the direct household stimulus were designed to mitigate that but we're really talking about you know moving back to 2013 14 levels so it's going to take five or six years to work through that number um i do think we'll get back to uh growth by the end of this year that looked like 2019 which was not a great year uh but will certainly be better than this year um and i think it's going to take about a decade for us to get back to where we would have been had we not have covet so in many ways the the effect of this downturn is to knock us so far off our growth path that it will take as much of this decade to return to that and i have some other thoughts that i think we'll talk about when we get to uh the regional economy cobit is going to accelerate automation of service sector so there'll be fewer jobs i think in service sector positions and this will be most acute in restaurants where you know such things as ordering and pay stations will be more obvious but i think they're going to be broadly applied to service sector in ways that the manufacturing industry saw in previous years um i think we're going to have significant challenge to the experience of students um 30 to 50 percent our early data suggests 30-50 percent of students have seen some deep learning losses and i think those are going to weigh heavily upon this generation i i say that as a with a young man in high school who's you know been to every type of high school in the past year that there is in person uh you know cycled in and out and distant learning so it's been very difficult for them much more challenging for younger children college attendance has dropped by five to seven percent i don't think that's going to recover most of that is with young men who were already struggling in college so uh young women look like they dropped they stopped going to college at about you know one percent below where they were in previous years for young men it's five to seven percent obviously uh the greater um lafayette region is centered by one of america's great universities one of the world's great universities and i think it's important that you understand that the effect of the downturn is going to impact higher ed and who goes to and who graduates from college there and again that the asymmetric impacts are going to deeply exacerbate the inequality that's that k-shaped recession that we're all very worried about so let me move on with the next slide the greater lafayette region and deborah if you would to the next slide these are the counties that i'm looking at this is bigger than the lafayette metropolitan statistical area and each one of these counties actually see a non-trivial share of workers moving back and forth to lafayette just a quick comment on this the metropolitan statistical area of lafayette indiana actually contains some fairly rural places benton county for example is rural by most anybody's definition but not by the office of management budget which defines metro areas you know i think these counties really give a picture of where people are working in the area if they move outside of the the region and because of agricultural you know many counties for example tipton that will will go in several directions but there's a large agricultural presence there and i do think it's important when you think about the local economy for example in tippecanoe county to think also more broadly about the counties that surround it next slide please greater lafayette gdp growth by county so this is um let me explain this a little bit this is gdp growth since 2010 you can see there's some places like tifton county that have opened a very large new facility that have very large gdp growth these data are in their first year of full publication um and so there there may be some revisions coming down the road the real story here other than the the shock to tipton county of opening a one large manufacturing facility is really the heavy growth out of tippecanoe county and so if we were to put this in dollar terms tippecanoe county is seeing a significant growth in the dollar value in gdp and if we were to see something unexpected here would be howard county's uh revival that's kokomo there are one of the few small very small municipal areas that are actually seeing population and employment growth over this decade next slide please so here we have the counties in the region we ha e their population 2010 2019 you can see of course that tippecanoe county to the center of this region is both growing fairly briskly and has the largest share of population so almost all of the growth between 2019 and 2022 will occur in that county it's being driven very much by economic activity surrounding greater lafayette and this is not just purdue but of purdue university is of course a generates much of this economic activity uh it is also an attractor um a number of businesses both high gdp businesses and you know large labor to capital ratio businesses service sector industries are attracted to a university town because the potential for uh human capital acquisition there it's a fancy way of saying this is where people are that businesses that are expanding today would wish to look for are really growing and i'll just say this because i think it's important for anybody who lives and works in a college town to understand that since 1991 the united states has created about 26 27 million jobs for men and women net jobs for men and women who have graduated from college the country has created four to five million jobs for those who have a two-year degree or have been to college and not received a four-year degree when it comes to high school graduates and non-high school graduates net job growth since the early 1990s has been negative so all of the employment action is surrounding those with college degrees and this is not as many would suppose really underemployment of college graduates there's very little evidence of that because all the wage growth is also accruing in these areas next slide please i wanted you to see the types of jobs that are coming to the greater lafayette area these are weekly new job postings so throughout the last year because there's some seasonality in this including during the the you know darkest parts of the uh you know the covid downturn we're still talking you know an average of about 900 jobs per week or being advertised in the region this is an area of about 490 000 people and so there's a significant amount of churn and potential new growth in the area next slide please and in this slide i'm going to just you know point out the most advertised jobs in the greater lafayette region and you can see that much of the in-demand jobs those jobs that are have a great deal of advertisement or turnover in those sectors so truck drivers retail sales persons are fairly high stockers in order for fillers but there's also in your region a significant amount of demand increasing demand for workers with higher skills registered nurses of course health other health care facility workers and so these jobs you know there's a great deal of turnover in in what i would call the you know under 29 or certainly under 60 000 a year jobs but there's also steady demand in health care in technology and if we were to go down if i had plenty of slide space to look at the top 500 most advertised jobs you're seeing some fairly highly technically skilled jobs and the reason that those don't appear is even if they're growing faster than these other sectors the turnover is much smaller and it may also be that the some of these jobs are advertised in non-standard ways that aren't picked up by the traditional job postings for example technology jobs with the university but i'll just take a moment here to say that you know one of the standout elements of really the midwest since 2010 has been the growth of commercialization at purdue university and so we're really beginning 2010 and a couple of years after that we've done work here at ball state to evaluate where and how dense the commercialization of university research goes and so there are a number of research universities in indiana really five that should have a great deal of commercialization but purdue is a national outlier in commercialization and much of that is accruing to the greater lafayette area and i think to some degree even if it were to accrue to indianapolis you're going to see a tighter connection between the lafayette and indianapolis metro area over the next two or three decades next slide please so they're going to be three slides here i'm going to look at what's called a shift share analysis and a shift share analysis gives us a snapshot of the individual industries and and how they're actually doing compared to national growth what would be predicted with national growth and their the industry share mix tells us what would happen given our our region's industrial composition so the way this works is we have the actual growth in this first column for each of these sectors and the bottom is the grand total which we'll repeat uh several times here the national growth that's how much growth we should have had for that sector nationally the industry share mix shows the difference between our experience and the national experience is really because we have less of this sector in that area and then local competitiveness is is really the how much more or less we're having um than we should be expected given the national growth rate and the share of that sector in our region and so what you can see here is in utilities mining extraction natural resources you know the greater lafayette area is a modest job loser in manufacturing in particular we're seeing a very large growth in manufacturing that is far more than we would expect given our industry share mix and national growth and so that really i think points to the commercialization that's occurring around purdue and the benefit of having access to the human capital at purdue university and elsewhere the region's doing poorly on retail trade that's an experience everybody has it's a little bit worse there than i would expect it to be which means we may see some stabilization in the coming years the next slide please and in this sector we look at we start moving to services information finance insurance real estate professional management and administrative waste support and in those sectors right we're seeing a movement away from finance and insurance part of this is due i think to consolidation in the industry that is moving it away from non-large metro areas which is you know part of the overall framework for financial services and the next slide please this is the final education these are services education health care arts entertainment accommodation food services and these are all by the way pre-covet so we're we're talking about um a decade in advance of the covet experience which we'll we'll be able to update this time next year when we have better county level data on on job changes but you can see here again the trade-off to some degree in the region between you know manufacturing and other jobs is that we're you're absorbing more of that there's benefits to this among the benefits are the types of manufacturing jobs that are moving to uh to this region are high quality um uh you know very high quality jobs typically less susceptible to job losses than manufacturing in the past and you know give us a more stable employment pattern or base for the region's economy the downside is that some of these other jobs are amenity-based and they provide the type of jobs that households like when they move to places very few households are looking for manufacturing jobs and they move they're looking for you know retail and education and other factors so as long as the greater lafayette region is sensitive to those sorts of challenges it should be just fine and i'm sure there'll be questions on this in a minute but let me go to the last slide then and handle any questions that you might have after i go through a brief summary uh you know indiana last year saw 24 000 new residents it if last year was similar to the any of the past decade 22 000 of those people moved to the greater indianapolis area and so a place like the greater lafayette region which is growing by just under a thousand people for a year per year since 2010 um you know if you're getting a thousand people here in this region you're one of the better performing metropolitan areas in the midwest and so unsurprisingly what we're you're experiencing in um this region is a very happy growth experience um that is going to continue through the pandemic we're going to see urbanization but it's going to be more geographically spread out so i could actually see tippecanoe county or the counties around it benefiting from this there are as as we're experiencing now a lot of people able to tell commute and that would make a living in a less geographically dense uh densely populated area like the greater lafayette area more attractive i do think we're going to see increased automation so that's going to change demand for labor not necessarily lose jobs right but we're going to see a shift away from say many services uh you know restaurant services and you know tip earning type jobs as well as continued automation and goods producing jobs towards technology support in other areas i believe the pandemic stimulus saved us from depression level tax losses at the state and local level so the state's talking about having a tax year that's not far off what we had in 2018 or 19 which is much better than any economist predicted six to eight months ago and i think the stimulus largely did that and then just i would remind everyone my comment is that while things will look better this fall and while many of us uh who are in professional jobs who are watching this presentation who are you know interacting with first merchant bank will have been fine you know many of our neighbors who are low income or have relied on providing service sector employment are going to face some far more stark challenge and with that i'll just stop and take whatever questions that you have all right thank you dr hicks obviously the depth and breadth of research that you do at ball state is is impressive and and we've got a few uh questions in the queue based upon what uh what you've shared today and just other general questions that uh that our audience has and so our first question uh comes from garrett and he asks absent continued fiscal support with the reduction of taxes to state and local local municipalities due to the lack of tourism and hospitality what impact or challenges do you predict in the periods ahead that's a good question garrett yeah so uh we think the stimulus spending so we did a forecast last year that showed you know significant losses some counties experiencing 20 30 percent loss and local revenue most the average county is about four or five percent which is tough but doable over a two-year period some counties particularly those who were very intensely connected to travel and tourism like orange county or brown county we expected very deep declines of overall tax revenue and for states double-digit losses for some instruments but high single-digit losses as a percentage i think in terms of the big tax instruments the sales tax and the income tax the stimulus saved the state so we're going to have a lean year so we're certainly not talking about teacher pay increases we're going to have a lean couple of years in local government everywhere but for the the three big instruments that are tied the food and beverage tax the innkeepers tax and then the gaming tax i think the the counties that are reliant on those are facing extinction level events for some types of uh funded activities there so you know the innkeepers tax funds um 40 or 50 [Music] convention of visitors bureaus i wouldn't be surprised if those are half halved by the this event a very difficult year for those sectors but it's it's not isolated it's everywhere and so where that forecast could be wrong is that americans may be itching to take vacations and to do things so this summer may be uh you know better for them but i do think uh we're facing the real challenges in those levels of spending and if you i mean the best example of this there was a you know in the uh here in muncie we have a new hotel that's paid for with the tiff and innkeepers tax and and that's really going to face a a bond payment coming from general funds so nobody is going to be immune from that pain but it's not going to be you know if you're not a major tourism destination it's not going to be as bad as i thought it would have been six months ago okay thank you second question comes from greg he asks across the nation the the amount of household savings balances have been increasing with more americans holding on to cash with the stimulus packages being offered and those yet to be offered what is it going to take for households to resume their buying habits to pre-covered levels or do you predict a new normal for households retaining cash yeah that's a very good question um you know holding on to cash doesn't have a very good value now as i'm sure everybody knows if you're looking at your you know savings rate my guess is that the cobit really pushed americans to spend a shift away from services towards goods and that a lot of that was in home improvement and so which you don't have to be an economist to know you just had to go into lowe's in august to have seen what was happening in household patterns you know we weren't taking vacations we weren't going to restaurants we were fixing our our homes my guess is that the a relaxation of covid restrictions this summer we'll see savings rates look more like they did in 2018 2019 we would be better off if they did not but i think there's a high probability that the end of covid will make things look more like at least in the short run like they were before and it's i i hesitate to speculate on what the you know five-year effective covid will be or is this generation going to be like the depression generation that really had a combination of a world war a depression changed their patterns over a lifetime i don't think we're there yet okay very good uh our next question comes from tom who clearly has some concern about our nation's borrowing habits uh his question is with the us borrowing its way into oblivion when will we uh when will the effect of 25 trillion dollars in debt hit the people of this country and how a great question so um our federal debt is roughly um about about 80 percent of what it was at the end of world war ii um the interest rate on our debt is really negative um that level of debt is concerning because if interest rates return to sort of a long run level then they would consume you know anywhere from 20 to 25 of gdp to make bond payments annually um that said our share of debt is not you know is well off uh places like japan or china and so we don't have the immediate size of a debt it's it's mind-boggling to look at but you know when you pay a debt over 40 or 50 years at very low interest rates it's not a big challenge i was a budget hawk 10 years ago but i think the lower interest rates and i think the apparent challenges to domestic infrastructure suggest if we're if we're going to borrow this is a good time to borrow the real challenge isn't the debt it's the level of spending that is not uh and the composition of spending that's not moving towards productive activity so if we had a very large debt that was allocated towards more productive investments i think we would worry much less about the debt the challenges much of our spending today is aimed you know to support people who aren't working instead of supporting people who are working with more productive enhancement so the debt is bad it's a concern but it's not the it's not an uh um extinction level event for the united states to have a debt of this magnitude we've dealt with it before but growing our there's not real clear ways that we can grow out of it of course there wasn't in 1946 either very good and somewhat of a follow-up on that we have another question um and as you were just talking about the spending of our of our government and where it's going uh the the question was thoughts on another stimulus and the overall impact to the deficit so i think you've answered part of that but i mean your thoughts on the proposed 1.9 trillion dollar uh stimulus package right so i'm i'm not confident that we need 1.9 i was i thought six or eight months ago we needed another 1.9 trillion dollars it's less obvious to me now with the reces ion likely ending or at least the immediate effect of covid likely ending by early summer half of that would be welcome uh you know the the big concern that i have is that no matter how you play out the past year we have had a shock to young people that is unlikely to be transient and so i very much worry about the shock to learning for third graders uh fourth graders eighth graders i very much worry about the loss of students going to college this is going to affect many of them for a lifetime and so as i think about what we should do for a stimulus i'm less worried about saving existing jobs which i think we're doing a fairly good job with this stimulus and more worried about the extra spending we're going to have to do to mitigate some of the longer term effects of this recession that are just now becoming apparent so yeah i'm not afraid of a 1.9 trillion and once you've got a 25 28 trillion dollar debt another one or two trillion doesn't matter the you know real challenges can we turn it into spending that causes productivity to improve and so you know i'd rather have a smaller stimulus and a bigger infrastructure bill or a smaller stimulus and more remedial education spending for those students who were affected in many places okay thank you for that uh we'll wrap it up here with one last question uh and this one uh gets outside of the information that you've shared today but uh one that i think is is on people's minds as well uh you know taxes are a a big issue as we have a change in administrations uh and the potential for higher tax rates what do the what would uh higher taxes due to the stock market in your opinion as we move forward yeah um i just preface this by saying if i could predict if anybody could predict the stock market they could easily be the richest person in in the world in pretty short order um the uh i like to think about taxes the way milton friedman is that the spending dictates the taxes so if you're spending uh at the level that we are taxes will rise um the uh overall the united states does not tax itself heavily in comparison to european countries um and so you know we're top top 40 or 50 on a per capita or a share basis uh you know i i think there's room for higher tax rates but you know that's not really where i think the improvement would be would come improvement would better come not from higher tax rates but from a more uniform administration of taxes so i don't think there's any appetite for raising capital gains tax or we're increasing corporate taxes to you know free 2017 or 2018 levels i think there's appetite for eliminating some of the loopholes that exist which allow highly differential payments by different firms at different parts of their life cycles i think we'd be better off by flattening the experience for individual firms even if we're going to have higher tax rates and i do think you know we're going to see a more progressive tax rate certainly the you know tax cuts and jobs act of the trump administration created more progressive tax rates but at the end of the day we're going to have to cut both spending and increase taxes to uh prevent sort of runaway debt growth over the next few years as we have seen for the past decade and i think that's not going to help the stock market but it really depends also on what that money is spent on i think a stock market would react favorably to better you know stimulus and more thoughtful analysis or more thoughtful taxation that treated entities more equally okay well dr hicks we've hit the 11 o'clock mark and so i want to thank everyone for joining us today and i hope you found this as informative and helpful helpful as i have we greatly appreciate the relationship that we have with each of you on the presentation today and if you would like to discuss how any of the information presented here impacts your financial situation please know that our entire team of bankers stands ready to help finally again a big thank you to dr hicks and his team at the center for business and economic research at ball state we look forward to sharing more of his work in future presentations i wish each of you a prosperous 2021 be safe take care of yourself your family your friends and your business have a great rest of your day thank you [Music]