How to industry sign banking minnesota ppt later
oh good good morning everyone can I check that y'all can see the screen and you can hear me you like warning can you type something in the Q&A box if you can see the screen and you can hear me okay okay thanks thank you for your replies I've got several replies okay so since everything is working fine we'll start the webinar now so first we'll talk about industrial reads where we publish a report last week we are maintaining equal weight on industrial reads and then for the nine months or three quarters of this year sector occupancy has been stable but the rental index has trended lower during the year except that each successive quarter the rental index decline is getting smaller I'll show a chart for that in a subsequent slide from demand site it looks fragile as manufacturing and export data are moderating for industry sector we maintain our view that rental bottom likely to be delayed to 2019 and generally negative reversions to persist for at least the first half of next year so this table shows is a summary of the jpc data for third quarter 2018 the left half shows the rental right half shows the occupancy so you can see for rental wise generally it's a red arrows which I said just now that rent o has been declining occupants you can see there are some greens so I said also occupancy this year has been relatively stable so the positives for the quarter is that sector occupancy has remained stable and in fact for third quarter is the highest year-to-date there's a tapering supply in 2019 for negatives as I'm already sick rent still coming down although it's a declining in smaller steps the other negative is that for the bellwethers ascender street a military industrial there was a lower occupancy for the singapore portfolio and then in those or rental reversions during the court day was a mixed bag with a negative bias so the range roughly was a plus 5 to minus 10 that's roughly the range for the industrial REITs Singapore portfolios key takeaways from the quarter these are sort of qualitative things that we hear through our conversations with the REIT managers so firstly it's a slower growth to be expected from trade tariffs but there are also opportunities the opportunities for example in Singapore in Vietnam as companies relocate out of China having said that relocating out China is not a new trend this has been talked about ready the original catalyst was which pressure in China is no longer as cheap as it used to be for labour and so this ad tariff has added a greater sense of urgency among companies to relocate out of China second thing is that for Singapore Weis market condition there's two saying is challenging partially also because of concerns over trade the industrialists are also uncertain about their own outlook for that we also still expect the rental reversions to be negative for least two more quarters industrialists are hesitant to commit to new leases due to the escalating landscape of trip protectionism and also customers are cautious about placing new orders and this has a cascading effect on the entire supply chain so investment action as I said before we maintain equal weight the theme of tapering supplying 2018 has largely run its course so the scorecard for the sector is that this this year so far of the nine months occupancy has been range bound over the last three quarters and this remains stable but rental index has trended down but in smaller increments and negative reversion super-sis now so Omega stand positive we want to see evidence of higher rents and broad-based recovery in occupancy so far occupancy has been stable but not exactly picking up and then well Mingus turn negative is a further moderation of manufacturing export data andrey flooding of supply of industrial space so this is showing the industries under our coverage we have to accumulate and to neutral okay these unchanged top down from previous quarter unchanged from previous quarter we are still we still favor the business and Science Park properties and high tech high specs buildings tactical bottom-up stock pick this is the same as last quarter as well kappa DC here's a better than average capital management so this is exactly same as the last quarter but the numbers in the table has been updated already so what you see is that we have focus on the five indicators relating to capital management that's gearing with average debt maturity with a rich cost of debt interest coverage and the percentage of debt days hatched at fixed rate so for those where the read is better than the average the bottom here's the average for those days better than the average is color green and those days was an average is colored red so as you can see Kappa DC read here is the only read that has all the five metrics which are better than sector average so this is a in relation to the rising interest rates so in a sense probably Kappa DC Reid will be the better insulated and better prepared compared to the rest of the peers so this is a summary for the reads under coverage during the recent results season we kept our ratings unchanged for all four of them however we had to lower the target prices by between one point four to eight point five percent except for capital DC we where the target price was unchanged so for cash the U is now about eight percent and we think that as pricing in the risk that's coming in in 2019 that is some so for now 2018 fourth quarter that's minimum risk by 2019 there's twenty eight percent of the portfolio up for expiry and renewal among this 2019 expiry some of us master lists also so for toni90 actually some really three key recess the non-renewals of this twenty percent and then secondly some master lease conversions which would impact [Music] distributable income as well and then there's the negative reversions for the spaces that get renewed so in via the release we've actually also raised the discount rate but kept the long-term growth rate the same after the results or senders reap singapore portfolio experienced some lower occupancy but silver lining is that there was positive renter even on the blender basis for the Singapore portfolio for their total portfolio ascenders has got exposure in Singapore Australia and UK so for the total portfolio occupancy was higher to ninety point six and this was aided by the inclusion of the UK portfolio which is effectively hundred percent leased so the wheel for a read is four point three years is healthy and hired in a sector average of three point eight years for Capaldi CV data center demand remains robust so for 2018 the manager has achieved its two billion dollar target AUM and the manager has articulated a intends to maintain the pace of acquisitions in 2019 although no target for the AUM was given wave of 8.5 years is the longest among industrial reso this means that they have good visibility on the income for compared to the other reads and then as I showed just now in the table Kappa d-serine is the best in class among the industries in terms of capital management and interest rate risk management next is maple tree industrial trust which we believe it has unattractive valuation now the Singapore portfolio had some weakness in terms of rental and occupancy average rain has come down and occupancy Oh sook has come down but on the whole distributor income has been mitigated by the inorganic contribution from the portfolio of the data centers that was acquired in the u.s. three and a quarter they also resumed the distribution reinvestment plan and this is to strengthen the balance sheet and fund development projects the current news spread for maple tree industrial Trust is tight as ever and that's why we think that is expensive at the moment [Music] this chart is showing the on the left the channel F is showing the industrial sector currency on the right is the rental index so you can see the occupancy has remained stable in the three quarters of this year and in third quarter occupancy is the highest for the year rental index continues to trend downwards but the difference is getting smaller this is showing for factory so here multi-user factory occupancy has made a new low it continues to trend down and factory rental index seems to be stabilizing business Parkman's he also remains stable and but the rental index appears to have peaked warehouse occupancy this is a bit of a positive surprises in proof both quarter on quarter and year on year and then the index rental indexes so shows signs of stabilization this chart on right shows the supply pipeline so there's about five hundred eighteen thousand square meters of space expected to come on stream in the fourth quarter this year and that potentially increases the existing stock by about two percent and then for 2019 about one point two eight million square meter space which would increase current stock by 2.6 percent so average annual supply and demand of space in the last three years was 1.6 and 1.2 million and so you can see that next year 1.2 million lies in between that's slightly higher than the historical demand but lower than historical supply so you can see that supplies tapering you this is the okay sorry for the typo here this shouldn't say June 2018 so for this child is showing okay this chart this this slight issue in the manufacturing export data up there was a dip in manufacturing in September that's a minus 0.2 percent year-on-year that is actually this point right here this is not a major surprise as for all the preceding months actually we were seeing signs of weaknesses and then PMI has trended down during the first ten months and you can see here Electronics PMI has come down quite a bit and then for electronics production that is this light blue line here you can see that for 2018 the range in pin da ting here is lower than when it was in 2017 was quite higher and compared to here 2018 so you can see that this is very slowing and then for exports wise the thing to highlight is right here Nordics for electronics has remaining contraction for the first nine months of the in d 18 and also up to October these just a summary of the results for a quarter you can take a look at it in more detail you know one time view from the report and then this is usually I show this comparison this is a historical comparison over the last one year of how the sector has fared in terms of the price to book and the you so this is as of November this year and then if you go back in time so right here at the bottom right is November last year if you will first if you look on the number on the right which is the U you can see that from 7% he has trended 27.3 so the U has increased and then for price-to-book wises 1.13 last year and nice 1.03 so the you can see that the valuation wise is getting cheaper and you has expanded so this could be a reflection of increasing you aversion risk aversion from investors and then as you know this chart will show the current Purell Purell at evaluation compared to a quarter ago so on the left is as of November and then on the right is as of August okay again sorry for the typo here this actually the as you can see normally a lot larger market capitalized reads tend to trade at the bottom right corner here meaning that investors are paying premium and accepting a lower you compared to the smaller size trees they are reading to the most noteworthy changes actually vive a-- it used to be there but it's no longer here it has been acquired by ESR wheat so you can see that yes re the size of bubble also has increased compared to a quarter ago okay now we move on to alvin who will talk about SHS holdings you thanks mister this is Alvin so we'll talk about SH has results so we don't wait to accumulate but lower target price of twenty four cents last target price was twenty nine cents as you can see revenue has increased by three point five percent but the downgrade was mainly due to two factors which is the substantial delay in the Bangladesh solar project and the higher operational expense a higher than expected and this expenses are due to the ramping up of the modular business so for quick recap SSS three business segments engineering construction which consists of steel and modular and they have a solar portfolio also and the other segment is corrosion prevention for the marine and offshore sector so I mean I am in expenses higher 16.1% operating expediting expenses increased 58.5% this is due to the redevelopment of the heeta office building for the engineering construction ii finance costs also increase hundred percent due to higher bank bonds for the factory and office so going forward we expect modular to continue its contribution towards the engineering construction segment while the structural steel business remain in her Changeling challenging environment so Kyrie's includes further delays in the construction of the project anticipated earnings for this project is four million a year so we have trimmed down our target price in light of key delay Shikata DB so with that I'll move on with too hard to talk about golden energy now Hyades poli our consciousness into the today is offer marketing trip but anyway I'll just click on his behalf yeah okay our golden energy releases results I think the production performed well he was up 60 65 percent but what was what was the negative has been a lower coal prices they still maintained via output target but I think the the worry right now is that there has been slow down in in in in esps the most recent number is about thirty plus dollars I think what has what has happened is that the China has imposed curbs on imported coal and this is kind of a suppressed coal prices in general China's that she curbing the coal imports until the and until the end of this year in another development specific for gear is that they'd made a twenty percent they are quiet 20% stake in this Australian Lister coal miner Stan Stan more he our our recommendation is still by by with a lower lower target price for golden energy I move on to gear as r22 geo for giome it was a bit negative it was negative for us in the production rose 15 percent it was actually below our expectations and also the virtually guided fall for lower output interest for the fool year I think we've revised down our our guidance for production from 10 million from 10 million again what was positive for them was that they there was a deal done with Macquarie Bank there were three parts to this deal firstly they got a life of mine of the agreement for their new mind new TBR mindedly just acquired the other positive is that and they've also the banks took a 5% stick in in geo at the price of 29 cents and also they also subscribe to some warrants with a exercise price of the D 3 cents obviously all these are above the current market price of a penny cents for us the the reason why the share price is correct is that they give the number one they've guided for for lower production for this year and also the cool prices have of course are off to also be corrected recently and that's the reason why the share price is corrected okay for the outlook like mentioned they've cut the production from 10 to 7 2 to 8 million according to the company they actually holding back on production due to the to the to the week week price and of course the big overhang right now is the coal import restrictions or Auto China hey our next move on to minion on QM good money so moving on to a Q&M so this time run for this quarter we downgraded queuing them to new show of a logo target price of 51 cents and this is mainly due to quite a few negativity squatters so firstly there wasn't a community's business cool so when you grow from both clinics and distribution is zero point four and negative two point seven respectively so despite having more than two clinics this year as compared to last year we have 8090 squatter and 86 last quarter the revenue growth from clinics actually grew quite gently as compared to last year and this is mainly because of the damp impatient demand for Q&M services because of the tightening from the government's on c-h-s and the pioneer generation scheme so patients are unable to claim as much as they could last year and quite a huge chunk on cleanest revenue is dependent on such claims from patients and also queue name is i
a net position on 63 million this years compared to 52 million last year and this is mainly due to share buyback on 4.7 million and dividends of 10.5 million and majority of that tip is from the 16 million three-year term loan to repay the empty end to expire this year and match to you on it so we call that in the first few quarters of this year queue and then give guidance that they will open 10 new clinics in Singapore ten you in Malaysia but as of November Q&M only expanded by three clinics year-on-year and 3 qmq so as we approach detail after year it seems that queuing um's aggressive expansion plan at the start of the year might fall short for both Singapore Malaysia as well but do not as of November they have already signed agreements to open three new clinics and four new clinics in Malaysia so the positive for this time around inside the cross profit margins for the respective businesses dental site and also the distribution business has been back to their pre-acquisition levels so this is because of the auditor announcing so in this time around this quarter revenue for the night man is purely from Q&M editor and our sings of revenues have already been the consolidated and is recognized now any share of profit from associates so other updates and the management share with us this quarter is that they are intending to expand to a new business line called education so this is because MOH is in the process of implementing a new regulations in one to two years time to require all the anticipated seeing aesthetic procedures to obtain a certificate of competency so queue name is positioning themselves to be acrid accredited CPE college to be a teaching college for dentists to issue these certificates for moh new regulation and they have also announced that they are exploring the use of artificial intelligence in dental scans and also x-rays so previously a is only used in the heart and brain for ECG and EEG diagnosis so canons exploring this area to do AI for dental dental procedures as well so for the outlook we are still cautiously optimistic about the expansion plans in Singapore Malaysia and post consolidation of this major revenue drivers drivers from China the group is still stepping on a smidgen of expansion in Singapore Malaysia so we are investment actions to downgrade to neutral below a target price this is because of the more moderate pace of cleaning expansion as well as less OCH es claims made my patients due to government's attending measures so he lowered our FY 18 to 19 revenue and Patni by 18 to 32 percent and 10 to 14 percent respectively we also reduce our PR to 25 and this is in line with PS average so moving on to the banking sector this is just a brief note on the top we went to industry x4 with money so to give a brief outline of BMS banking ecosystem Neama has only four state-owned banks don't you follow code banks local private banks 13 foreign banks and child mobile money providers and as in comparison to wave money they have 36,000 wave shots in Myanmar spread across 289 townships so wait money belongs to the mobile money providers category so as compared to the banks who have only 3000 ATMs in 2010 branches with money has 36,000 wheel shops and most of these ATMs and Bank branches are not even in the areas that the locals need so before with money came into picture there's only four main options for individuals to send money back to hometowns so it's either they travel back themselves use as well favor from friends and family to bring the money back on the ass bus drivers that's going back to the towns to pass them any money to the relatives or they use hungies so the yellow figures are as of March 2016 the percentage of people using these options and the orange figures are in August to zero on it after we have money came into picture so you can see a huge decline in the old inefficient ways of sending money back to their own hometowns so what is the waste money is basically a mobile financial service that provides users with the option to send money in a safe and accessible manner via wave shops and using a wave account on your user spoons so you can send money from one location to another send to one user to another and also pay merchants using wave money so it started in to the ro16 October we have 36,000 agents and right now they have five million active users in Myanmar and they have really achieved cash flow breakeven in September this year so the wave money ownership structure is a majority owned by FM I and there is also owned by Yuma bank and your mind strategic and also Telenor so how does money work for the money transfer an individual who wants to transfer cash we have to provide the mobile number of the recipient to the with with money agent at the wave shop then the recipients they receive an SMS notification they can hit to any wave shop to ask the wave agent to verify the transaction ID and then to get the cash over from the wave agent and the second way that wave money works is by payment between individuals just using their mobile numbers like our DBS Paila it works the same way and also much on payment it's like our great P when you just scan a QR code and you can peel a merchant so this is the chap for the revenue growth or with with money so you can see the revenue grew by more than 20% every every few every year and they really achieve cash flow breakeven this year so for the other way of money we believe that you will not limit the platform to just financial services and payment services they're actually experimenting to expand into areas such as cinema tickets for delivery much on payments donations and QR codes for sweet shop and they also introduce pension payments through the platform as well and they're also going to move into micro lending with the role of our introducer so this might increased competition from the banks and the establish telecommunication companies with money's distribution network is more than ten times the number of ATMs in the whole Myanmar's banking system so they have already penetrated quantum Emma and the trust that has been cultivated between the locals and using wave money has really been cultivated and the glucose trust with money to partner cash with and also the spiral network effect where more users as more users adopt this platform you attract even more agents and vice versa so this creates a continuous virtually of linkages and transactions so that's all for me I'll pass on to admin to tell you more about us Wheatley I think you mean so I know I become in the US market outlook so the new orders so the manufacturing new orders for durable goods last week was released and you fail to meet the consensus and you fell four point four percent from a month earlier in October so although the figures seem to suggest that there is a slowing momentum for manufacturing activities but this is mainly due to the large decline in the transport in the new orders for the transportation equipment so you feel as clue transportation from the figures then the new orders who have increased you 0.1 percent assisting home sales has also reason for the first time in several months a contract closings has increased from the prior month as well however sales were still down 5.1 percent from a year earlier and this is the biggest drop since 2014 so this means that demand seems seems to be stabilizing at a lower level as available properties become less cars however this week the weakness is likely to continue because there's higher mortgage rates and with the face going to increase are still going to increase their interest rates so for the week ahead some of the indicators that is going to be released to be the GDP growth rate and the personal income well the key highlights will be FOMC minutes which will suggest whether there will be a increase in the interest rates for December another key important anarchie event thus gonna take place would be the star g20 and there's a lava is lava a lot of people are looking at the comments submit so Renault we all look at the recession indicators sort of its VIX index has has been confirmed to reach the threshold of twenty seven point seven in February but has since drop increase after the midterm elections to about 20 21 and it is currently still rising I mean II due to uncertainties in the market because of the trade war the S&P 500 has also dropped below his 200-day moving average in October but if you look at the charts he has actually dropped below the moving average a few times this year and there was a shop correction every single month so all in all we can say that and the recession indicators are indicating that the economy is currently healthy soul Austria he was requested by the clients to for the individual P evaluations for the Fang stocks so first we look at Google you can see that he appears to be a fluctuating between the average line and negative one standard deviation for the past five years so right now currently is an idle over value or under value however if you look at Facebook yes I just reached a new low and has fallen below ISA one standard deviation and still trending towers so currently it is undervalued Wells for a poet is relatively stable for the past seven years and there and it doesn't seems to be changing as well as for Amazon is currently trending downwards and yes since our from a new low since 2011 however with da we are we are pretty ting that the Amazon Web Services it's like to drive the proof for Amazon as for Netflix is currently around his average line so he's an either over value on the value okay so for me now I passed my time to Jillian for the China will amusing cinco elements as for china last week as for channel last week PPO says to released a new document on october 2nd 2nd 22nd it's about first estranging for financing for private enterprise and the technology companies the reasons why is important is the first tensor PPO say put code has to for real uncle it put real own code out to privately owned companies and second and second really said you're going to channels for bread and price for note financing also they will be more pregnant credit eSports for companies and so we I think we're seeing the stuff ministry and focused on helping private enterprise to finance for company recommendations or Hong Kong research teams done great Chinese med medical systems because because open a new medical policies lay believe it will affect the price of the table medicals so lay down great earning pressures 24.7 1474 I to 2019 and 2018 and point 81 at 2019 for Air Tran and for air channels to because of the increasingly because of the oil price increase and increasing and the exchange rate they also done great done great trainers to hold they put the p/e ratios at fourteen point two at 2018 s and the nine points three times and the 2019 we think because because if we look at the price of Chinese talks to all its are lower than the average TPS so you should look more on stocks which have a private and which have the policy sports and government sports for foreign for to week we'll look we'll look at the g20 meetings also we are waiting the channel government is set the date of the first panel sessions because of honest the meetings there will be more policies - regretting the reform and open up our move to Lepore for Philips and would be amusing thanks man I move on to justice Singapore weekly interest of the macro for last week I think the key one was probably up off under the the macro data out there was some comments by the New York Fed governor just said that the the interest rate rise is not on a preset cause so okay I'll discuss more later but I mean in terms of Singapore micro there were some CPI numbers but it's still it's we didn't the mes expectations of 1.5 to 2 so and unless we see something material served of this 2 percent or even 2.5 in 2019 don't explain anything aggressive on mes and also GDP I think everyone is ready senior I guess the key is that there's a deceleration obviously in a toccata and he was even below the advanced numbers and even what was the expectations for the market in terms of some sector news we did meet up with some tech companies or I think what we seen is that there's been a major collapse in orders for November I think what they've mention is even when I'm on some orders that you drop almost 40% what has happened is that with the critter carries any production now I worship any products a ship of China now probably arrived only in in the u.s. in January and in again then this this but if there's nothing changes this batch of products will we will incur a 25% errors so as a result Allah the host appachan is actually on on stand still the host is electronic supply chain has actually dearest dearest or TV stock so everyone's very conscious not building on having any inventory and this way it's partly due to Apple of course and also partly due to the trip tensions so what is worrying is maybe the fourth quarter numbers for most of the electronic companies me actually be softer than expectations now maybe only in a first quarter we might depending on the on the sea and tram discussion we could see some market trend pricing in the bottom in pub in the first quarter and that's our technical bent again we still expect some positive positive outcome from DC and CRO meeting again day we've mentioned it a few times before someone Bernie the key thing for this and also another thing to monitor this week will be the Powell speech in the New York Economic Club as you as you recall in a till October the market has reacted at least the bond market has erected to his hawkish comments that the interest rates are a long way from neutrons so everyone is hoping for some dovish comments from Powell in his in his Danny eight November speech in economy and at the Economic Club in terms of our tactical bets again with the continuous rise in interest rates and what we're looking for is the least toxic and there's a stocks with dividend growth some of this even include STX again Essex is benefiting from not even forced Singapore market obviously they benefit from domestic flows but when it comes to derivatives HDX do benefit from Goebbels so and of course the other sector there's a tree growing that could be could see growth in dividends with the banks and selected weeks like OCC T so in terms of the week I'll hit the key the two key things would be of course the g20 summit and the power speaker the Economic Club okay I think that's it from us if you have any questions please please turn them down thank you you all right just on the powerpoints we usually upload it in stocks BMB you can get it from there you oh I think you just email us your your you can just email to our amine or research we will sender the slice to you in a PDF version that is a bit too big for this week yeah it doesn't email to us the research or I will send a copy to your a PDF version you okay one question on the in a leucemia coming yeah we'll probably hole 2090 outlook in January once we fix the date we will we will let you know you know we give up you know yeah thank you for the question you okay I will just wait one more minute if there's no questions we were just any yeah thank you you okay are you for the email just email to research at Philip commas G if you understand yeah I repeat the step well research at Philip Larkin - gee thanks you okay the nordica since we we will like to any and things anyone Potter for participating thank you you
