Closing a deal with a client in European Union

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hello and welcome to another tldr eu video it's no secret the end of the transition period is approaching and approaching fast while both sides are for now continuing to negotiate the risk of a no deal continues to loom over both the uk and eu so much so that the european commission have now published contingency plans and recommendations in preparation for a complete breakdown in talks so in this video we'll look at exactly what the commission is planning to put into place and what this tells us about the current state of negotiations the negotiation deadline is not the only one closing in though christmas is also round the corner so i've got some good news the tldr store is still making deliveries before christmas to a whole bunch of countries so if you know a friend who'd love a countries with shoes pin badge or even one of our brexit coloring books which take you through the whole brexit timeline in 21 images then now's the time to buy the link to the store can be found in the description to tackle the immediate elephant in the room while these plans have been published in between high-level talks between boris johnson and vonda lyon and the hard deadline of sunday they imposed the commission was always scheduled to release these plans on thursday come what may after some quite significant pressure from eu countries so this was always going to happen in the words of politico the commission has waited to launch the legislation fearing that it would send a political signal to london that brussels had lost faith in the talks anyway so what has the eu published well alongside a typical press release the commission published a number of targeted contingency measures covering four key areas all of which were expected to encounter the most significant disruption from a no deal scenario these being basic air connectivity aviation safety basic road connectivity and fisheries all four areas crucially don't have a pre-existing international fallback for instance no contingency plan had to be put into place for trade as the uk and eu are both members of the world trade organization so they would just follow wto rules instead a similar logic applies to police and security cooperation too however there's no such international fallback solution for the likes of aviation and fisheries so that's what the eu have tried to put in place here the contingency measures are explicit in what they can and cannot do notably they cannot provide continuity or replicate benefits of eu membership and they're being put into place not as permanent solutions but as transitory solutions to avoid or mitigate the disproportionate disrupts relating from a no deal scenario so let's take each issue in turn starting with basic air connectivity given the uk and eu's proximity hundreds if not thousands of british flights fly over and make stops in eu territories and airports every day and vice versa in the absence of an agreement uk flights to the eu and eu flights to the uk would most likely be grounded in turn the commission is set to allow for up to six months uk carius to fly across the territory of the union without landing make stops and perform scheduled and non-scheduled international passenger and cargo services between points in the uk and points in the eu this is all conditional on the uk conferring equivalent rights to european air carriers something which appears to be a given at this point simply allowing air carriers access to your airspace isn't the end of the story however the aircraft ultimately used still needs to be certified for safety purposes in order to be allowed to enter your airspace assuming no deal after the transition period certain aviation products would lose certification from the european union aviation safety agency in turn the commission is proposing the aviation products and designs certified by the easa before the end of the transition period continue to apply without disruption on road connectivity it's clear that the commission is expecting some quite significant disruption saying that in the absence of an agreement on a future partnership there will be no basis in union law for the provision of road freight transport services between the uk and member states the existing system would not be sufficient to carry goods by road and would result in serious disruptions potentially even threatening public order in turn the commission is proposing more or less a continuation of the status quo for a maximum period of 6 months while not rectified through the measures put in place now the commission touches on the situation with the channel tunnel specifically in the absence of contingency measures the operation of the channel tunnel would have to be suspended however in light of the economic importance of the tunnel on the 27th of november the commission adopted contingency measures that last until other arrangements have been put in place finally let's tackle fisheries which at one point was the biggest sticking point in negotiations the fishing sector is important for both sides from the position of sovereignty to the economic impact it would have for coastal communities in turn to avoid cliff edge destruction of these communities the commission is proposing an extension on fishing authorizations until the end of 2021 that would allow for reciprocal access by eu and uk vessels to each other's waters this is however conditional on the uk accepting and reciprocating the measure something which doesn't look guaranteed all of these measures have however come too late for some member states who took it upon themselves to set up certain domestic contingency plans we'll zoom in on france germany and the netherlands let's start with france as they're the country who didn't rule out vetoing a deal should they consider it too bad to accept since september last year france began the recruitment of 700 extra custom stuff and spent 50 million euros on expanding port infrastructure including calais which is one of the main entry points into the eu from britain plus it was also preparing extra border posts for checking in goods from the uk in the case of no deal brexit furthermore france has prepared an emergency law which authorizes the government to enact measures in case of a no deal without needing to consult parliament so to swiftly respond to crisis situations that might emerge british citizens in the country are offered until the 1st of july 2021 to apply for an extension to their residence permit but they may stay regardless up until that date they've also launched a special website for all kinds of questions that businesses and individuals might have regarding any kind of brexit as for germany the federal government has prepared its customs system with over 700 new employees british citizens in germany also have the right to stay there until the 30th of june 2021. if they want to stay longer they must present their current residence permit in order to receive an extension furthermore germany's passed a law that says that any federal law referring to eu member states will also apply to the united kingdom as for the german economy a study by the leibniz institute for economic research and the martin luther university concluded that more than a hundred thousand german jobs are likely to be lost in the case of a no deal therefore german businesses have been provided with a lot of information from the government helping them prepare for matters such as standards compliance trade and customs explaining how to do business with the uk in a no deal scenario in order to try and protect jobs and businesses in the netherlands concerns of a no deal brexit are very high in fact based on a recent investigation conducted by the universities of rotterdam sheffield and birmingham together with the netherlands environmental assessment agency the netherlands is expected to be the eu country that loses out most in a no deal scenario at the moment only a third of dutch companies claim to feel sufficiently prepared for a no deal scenario as for the dutch government preparations have been put into place with regards to various areas including visa regulations qualifications and financial regulations for citizens this includes the right for british citizens resident in the netherlands to be granted a temporary visa for 15 months allowing them time to apply for a full residence visa as for border controls the government has expanded its custom staff with 321 of them expected to be available by the end of march although 928 are expected to be needed so that's a pretty big shortfall but fortunately the blue brexit monster has been going around the port of rotterdam since 2019 warning the dutch of the impact of brexit so what could possibly go wrong these national piecemeal approaches have actually come under fire from the commission with the ft writing the european commission warned national governments not to undermine the european position that only the bare minimum of contingency measures should be put in place the issue being that for national governments doing just the bare minimum is akin to simply taking your foot off the accelerator when you're about to crash you're invariably going to want to use your brakes ursula vonderlion the european commission president is careful to imply that these measures despite their timing do not in any way signal a loss in faith in negotiations stressing that negotiations are still ongoing however given the end of the transition period is very near there's no guarantee that if and when an agreement is found it can enter into force on time so ing to her these provisions are necessary to be put into place regardless of a deal before we end though we should briefly discuss the eu's budget that's because each year the uk contributed some 7.5 billion euros to the eu budget which was consistently more than it received all the way back in march eu leaders first disagreed about how this gap should be filled and if it should be filled in the first place the issue of eu finances was then aggravated by the economic setback as a result of the pandemic and the veto of the eu budget by hungary and poland over the inclusion of rules connecting funding to conditions on the rule of law and democracy in each country fortunately for the eu recent messages show that both hungary and poland are about to lift their veto on the 750 billion euro eu budget even with the rule-related clauses intact in return they're said to have demanded that any cuts would first have to be reviewed by the court of justice of the european union and that they could only be imposed for rule of law breaches that threaten the eu's financial interests specifically details on this end and whether leaders will actually agree to these proposals will emerge in the coming days so what do you think is this a sign that the eu's losing faith in a fully fledged deal or is it just them preparing for whatever might come 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