Empower Your Business by Closing Sales in European Union

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first of all what do you do with a lot of these currencies so the currencies even if you look at what happened to euro swiss c i mean they're really on the move but then you have to ask yourselves okay ruble should we just forget about it and then some of the currency um that are very commodity rich well i think for the ruble yeah i think forget about it i don't think the price on the screen really is a reality of the price but you know some patterns have been emerging and those patterns certainly in the g10 have been really put on the head this morning so the patterns that had been emerging really over the last couple of weeks had been you know the bottom of the g10 table was stocky performing badly along with those eastern european currencies of course at euro quite near the bottom of the table and at the top were those commodity currencies the aussie for instance the new zealand dollar the canada at the dollar and then and the yen and the swiss franc sterling you know some were sandwiched in the middle but of course if we look at the performance table today what do we see we see the stocky coming back we see the nokia coming back and so some of those european currencies given this reprieve by this news that of course the europeans could be coming together and they could potentially uh issue debt yeah i mean the concern is that of course maybe they don't right this is a report that they're talking about it's on the table we've never seen something like this on the table but what if someone says no because actually it's too much fiscal spending it's just not the right time then do we have just a lot more volatility and currency i i think we do i mean you know that news stories i think evoke memories of the the recovery fronts it's something that came in after this the start of the pandemic you know when when the fiscal authorities in europe were coming together there was suddenly some sort of glue in in those fiscal authorities that had always been lacked you know since the the start of the euro back in 1999 and and that really formed this idea that maybe the euro could after all you know be some sort of safe haven because if they were issuing debt there was somewhere for safe haven buyers to go yeah but if 40 of your energy is from russia i mean i don't know what fiscal spending even you know even if you throw everything kitchen sink at fiscal spending like what can it actually do you know i i would agree with that and i think today's reaction that's been turned on its head is perhaps short-term we need something more solid before we can go further and i think the reality is is that europe's energy security is there's a massive question mark there's a massive fog therefore over the economic outlook for the eurozone will it go into recession you know can it avoid recession and that sort of fog and therefore the fog over the ecb policy means that there's that big cloud of uncertainty over european uh uh currencies and that will remain until we get more concrete news yeah and i don't want to pour water on this because it you know the fact that the eu is even considering this massive joint bond sale to fund you know energy and defense is huge but again does it actually you know help with stagflation or is this something that we just need to get used to um stagflation is here anyway i think we know that we know that we have that the risk of higher prices um it's very difficult now to see eurozone inflation you know below that five percent level you know on average say for the rest of this year we know that we're going to have slower growth we know that higher energy prices takes money out of consumers pockets and therefore there's going to be less demand and everything else so that we know that we have those two things we know that we're going to have a higher inflation and lower growth however if the european authorities can do more on the fiscal front if they can show more of a united front if they can show that sort of cohesion that's always been lacking that economists were worried about back in the 1990s at the start of emu there is a massive step forward for the for the euro and it does alter structurally the outlook so this is really big news but of course we need more details before we can you know really be confident about this so it is it is a big step forward but for the time being and certainly over the weeks ahead most of those clouds over the euro and european currencies are still there jane my fear from the very beginning was that there was a second you know round effect on something and i kept on being told no it's okay we can freeze out russia without really anything happening now there's you know nickel is a huge concern and a chinese bank is embroiled but what's liquidity like in currency markets well um you know i i think it depends which currencies that you're looking at i mean certainly as i said we can forget about the russian ruble people can't really trade with the russian counterparts at all so therefore the liquidity is gone um i think if we look more in the in the staples if you look at euro dollar i don't think liquidity is a problem at all so clearly it depends where you're looking i'm not sure about the eastern europeans but i would imagine that there's probably less liquidity there than perhaps normal and and certainly if we look at what happened in nickel yesterday liquidity was it was a huge example of what happens when liquidity dries up so so we know that it is a problem i think you're right to be worried about second order effects i think you know we've got nickel that will affect uh potentially the the manufacture of evs and other batteries but i think before that we've got to consider food production and i think that's been a concern over the last couple of weeks and i think really for people in north africa for instance who had been relying on wheat from from from the black sea area this is a massive concern and something which will perhaps almost certainly affect europe perhaps with another wave of refugees