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what are your thoughts on the Philip Anderson's 18.6 year real estate cycle in regards to the market so Amber I'm going to tackle this from two sides first I'm going to assume um we are specifically talking about real estate because it doesn't work for the actual traditional markets at all in my opinion but I'll talk about just the real estate thing first now this Philip Anderson's 18.6 year real estate cycle is a theory that real estate markets go through a cyclical pattern of boom and bus with an average length of 18.6 years and the cycle is divided into four phases uh we'll talk about those in a second but uh actually let's let's go to them now because I do have them on the next slide hold on a second um juggling things around here so here here are the the Cycles so you got the recovery phase it starts to recover from a previous recession the expansion the market starts to grow rapidly hyper Supply the market reaches its peak and starts to cool off and recession the market starts to decline now In fairness with me I never heard of the Philip Anderson's 18.6 year cycle until I heard from the Pacino brothers and they are big into it um but for me innately because I've been investing in real estate since the 90s I always thought things happened in seven to nine year cycles and I thought huh interesting 2 times 9 is 18 maybe there's a pattern here but no so look at this for example This Is Us real estate over the last 25 years you can see um we go up then we had the global financial crisis and then we have a seven to nine year cycle again and if this thing this case your index stretched back before 27 or before 1997 you'd see 1998 you'd see that it was for nine years as well so I do believe in a seven to nine year cycle and that's typically how I invest in real estate I wait for things like the GFC and I'm ready to pounce and buy and I wait for other crises that can pop in every now and again and also what's important to look at as well so there's no such thing as an 18.60 cycle I explained that in a minute but look at this this is more regarding real estate this is U.S real estate divided by the M2 money supply growth over the last 25 years remember this return sucks real estate has fallen 33 if you use this as a metric but the secret here all right if you buy real estate and you put 10 down or 20 down that means you have 10x leverage or 5x leverage that means you make money because you have that leverage but buying for all cash does not work ladies and gentlemen always I remember it was a late 2021 I was urging everybody on patreon you know it's closing mortgages you know 2.9 percent 10-year interest only borrowing as much as I could uh you know lock in this crazy low money that's before any of this interest rate hiking ever even began it was like 2.9 for me was free money because I know money debases half over 10 years so it's like imagine borrowing a million dollars okay 10 years later you're paying back five hundred thousand dollars effectively and you're borrowing that money at 2.9 it's an absolute no-brainer but let's get back to your question um there are three rules of real estate for the real estate professionals out there location location it's that simple ladies and gentlemen and it there's no 18.6 year cycle I can point you to places in the United States and in Europe that have not gone anywhere for 20 years in fact I can point you to other places that have actually gone down over the last 20 years and I can point you to places that have quadrupled in the last 10 years okay so it's all about the location and therefore I do believe the theory is both not accurate it does not take into account all the factors that can affect the real estate market and you should not be used to justify risky investment decisions at all it's uh it's BS what does drive real estate prices sorry for going so long because I've been studying this for three decades um the location the location and the location the demand in that area the supply in that area interest rates economic factors how many jobs are there so for example when Tesla opens up a huge facility in Austin Texas you can watch from the announcement time to the amount of price changes in real estate for two bedroom three bedroom four bedroom homes and the amount of Starbucks Etc everything just goes through the roof okay so that is kind of the jobs also the key factor which has become even more important you've got government policies for example people fleeing V passport zones not too long ago I won't talk about that because it's political then you have things like Freedom what are you allowed to do in those places and people now want freedom and they want things to be well managed Etc and a low-cost living and of course low taxes that's what drives real estate prices not in 18 years 18-year cycle so it's ridiculous thank you