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Oh so the next piece will be how do we figure out the lead time and after that how do we figure out the safety stock so now we've seen the first part of the agenda which was basically the Sawtooth and it's more realistic variants and that describes the dynamics of the on hand inventory we've just seen the way we use forecast to plan ahead to see when we have to order in how much with the aim of not dropping below the safety stock now in life we're very likely to drop below the safety stock but the whole point of the safety stock is to have enough of a cushion that we avoid the real problem which is going negative and not having sufficient inventory to meet the customer demand now we've introduced the notion of a lead time as important in that calculation we start with the forecast then work in the lead time and figure out when to order and how much to order where's the lead time come from well in this particular case our scenario is that we have a finished good that has to be assembled from three components a B and C we'll call them well think back to our problem of coming down with our forecast hitting the safety stock and then we said we work back by a lead time and that goes up to when we should order so this is when we order and this gap is the lead time where does the lead time come from well if there are three components we have to make sure that all three are available when we need them and there's no guarantee that they will all be readily available so component a may require that we go back to here if we order then the a part will be ready but component B might take longer to be available and component C may take even longer so it's really the the slowest of these components the one with the longest individual lead time which governs when we order if they all happen to be available quickly and uniformly they'll take say five days to to be available then that's our lead time but if one of them takes longer then that's the one that's slowing the whole train down and that's the one that governs the lead time if we happen to have available quantities of the components and they're all basically on the Shelf a is there B is there and C is there and they're going to be available in the quantities we need if we've gotten it just a beaucoup as moku B's and beaucoup C's then we're all set we can basically have a lead time of one day but that doesn't always happen especially if a component is not in stock and has to be special order from a supplier this says yes I could get it to you in 14 days like always so that supplier is governing the calculation of the lead time so obviously there's a premium on making sure that you have available inventory of the components so that you can very have very quick lead times and therefore very small increments of of inventory and you can live very close to the safety stock at that point because you're running very efficiently but if there's any delays those push up the inventory and you pay costs in terms of higher investment in stock in a warehouse someplace or in the aisles of your Factory you you