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made time to join us online thanks um so we've gotta just to make sure you're the right place this is a presentation a seminar market segments product profile target product profiles and pipeline investment cases in short this presentation reviews about two years of work um in module one of excellence and breeding um and today presenting is peter colddrake peter has led uh the interim lead for module one um for the past two years um in it prior to joining eib um peter worked about 34 years at porteva agriscience in breeding and leadership positions in portfolio management and strategic marketing so um i'd like to call peter up peter we've got about 20 25 minutes for the presentation and then we'll open things up for some questions from the audience so um without further ado peter great thank you jason thanks to jason and allison for the opportunity to give this presentation and also good morning good afternoon good evening to everybody that's online so we'll go through this fairly quickly um to give you some background as as before i joined eib the focus of module one was really on capturing product profiles of leading products by center by crop um when i came to eib in 20 may of 2020 i was asked to develop pipeline investment cases in response to one of the six funders requests from crops to end hunger so when i started asking about okay what do we know about market segments how do we start to understand opportunity i got blank looks in in by and large and so what i did was sort of dig in then to say okay what had been done what was known and what did we need to do in order to be able to generate realistic pipeline investment cases so that meant identify and describe crop market segments that meant document and understand what breeding pipelines were in existence and how much money was being spent on each of those breeding pipelines and then we could develop the first round of pipeline investment cases and then the next step was to develop a target product profile for each market segment so we could really start to see did it make sense that a pipeline was aligned on multiple market segments each with a unique target product profile so we went through all this and and you'll see it in the presentation but basically we've generated version one of the current crop market segments pipeline investment cases and target product profiles and so this is what's happening across the centers across the crops today right so it's documenting in a consistent way what's happening by center crop by crop so as i think about doing this essentially there's there's two areas key areas of work one is to understand the opportunity that's the market segment so we set out to identify and name the market segments then we set out to describe the opportunity that existed in each of those market segments so how many hectares how many people how many tons of grain were produced how many people were in poverty et cetera et cetera and then we created a target product profile that defined the ideal product for each of those market segments on the other side then on the investment side we needed to understand the pipelines and we needed to understand how much was being spent on each pipeline and which market segments each pipeline was focused on bringing those two together then we could create a pipeline investment case we could say we're spending this much money against this opportunity so how did we how do we define a crop market segment it was consumer and processor requirements plus grower requirements equals a market segment we did this at the 1cg sub-region so essentially a crop market segment is what's being produced where and how it's being grown in a particular region equals the market segment so the definition is a group of growers with common variety needs driven by processor and consumer requirements that what needs to be produced combined with a set of grower requirements based on where and how the crop is produced that's our definition of market segment we did it at the 1cg sub-region and so that's what you'll see next step was then to name i don't know to to identify and name these market segments so we did it by crop we did it by one cg region we did it by one cg sub region then we looked at crop type so what what what crop is being produced how's it going to be used then color of the grain or flesh then where the crops grown in that one cg sub region how the crops grown and maturity so these were so the the criteria that we used not all these criteria are relevant to all crops obviously it's a perennial crop maturity is not not not a criteria in identifying a crop market segment and so you can see we can roll these up from the 1cg sub region to the one cg region if we want to we can roll up further to just a global view and as we start to work with knobs we can go down from that one cg sub region to country level view so if we keep this same criteria for how to how to identify and describe a market segment we can roll up or down as needed this is just an example of of the the naming approach and this is for ground not in east africa so the the columns that are in the orange font are where there that there's a difference between the marker segments so you can see for ground not the crop type is either for food or oil where it's grown is broken out by altitude so we've got low altitude mid altitude high mid to high altitude and then we've got four different maturities so you can see the logic and how each one of those drives a unique market segment each one of those unique market segments will drive a unique target product profile for the ideal product needed for that particular market segment so what did we come up with we came up with 428 market segments when we looked across eight centers um did it by at the one city sub-region and did it across 25 crops next step was then to describe these market segments and so the the descriptors that we used and these are by no means all the descriptors this was just a set that we used to in the trial process here were hectares were production in tons so we got the average yield from um the breeding leads in a region and this so then we could calculate production we could calculate value using average selling price we looked at total and rural population we looked at total and rural population and poverty total and rural population undernourished and then we calculated the number of people that were actually in the market segment footprint so in the hectares that the crop was grown on for that particular market segment and so we got the total population in the market segment footprint and then also could calculate the number of though that population that was either in poverty or under nourish so these are the criteria that we use to describe the market segment in version one of this activity then we created dashboards and so this is a market segment dashboard um you can see on the left it pulls up spring wheat it gives you the option to select cement or a carter that gives you the option to select the one cg region and then the one cg sub region in it uh you can see hectares production value population population poverty population undernourished right so don't expect you to read it but this is an example of what you get if you pull the dashboard up right and so i have to give a shout out to agnes for building these dashboards and pulling this data from rows and rows of excel file into something that's visual and lets you easily see the differences between these markup segments how can we use this data so we can think about using the data for market segments within a crop and we can think about using it across crops so if we look at within a crop this is the hectares for market segments in south asia for spring wheat and you can see there's four of them quite different in the area i asked you look at the top one in the second one and so the second one is about fifty percent of the area of the top one so just keep that in mind if we go and pull in then for the same market segments the population the total rural old market segment population that's in poverty then you can see on the right hand side that the number of people in poverty in that particular market segment is 80 percent of the first market segment so this this is an example of picking a different descriptor can put a different level of importance on the market segment so if you want we're wanting to have an impact on reducing poverty then you might say i need eighty percent of the effort on that second market segment that i have on the first one if you just went on hectares you may say hey the the second one is 50 the opportunity of the first one so just giving an example of how we can look at this and how you can by picking and choosing the descriptors you can put a different weight on the importance of a given market segment if we look at cross-market segments this is all the crops that are in southern africa and so across i think there's 15 crops um there's 53 unique crop market segments that exist in the 1cg sub-region of southern africa what we did was go in to those and and pull out the top ten market segments based on each of those descriptors so we pulled out the top ten market segments on hectares the top 10 market segments if we look at total population down the list and and what we found is that by picking the top 10 across those descriptors we have we selected 15 of the 53 crop market segments in southern africa right and so then you can start to look at it and say okay within the ones that we selected there was a set that consists consistently ranked high across all the descriptors and so you can see there's four crop market segments in southern africa that consistently ranked one two three four or five across all those descriptors um then if you go in and say well okay let's pull out the set of market segments that at least ranked in most if not all of the descriptors so you get you get three more market segments that come up you can see in the highlighted in yellow that there's one of those market segments that rated quite high if we just looked at the the market segment footprint so if we looked at that market segment footprint for population for population and poverty or population under nourished then that sweet potato market segment ranked higher than some of the others so we just kept going through this and said okay let's look at the market segments that ranked in that in the top 10 for all the market segment footprint descriptors and so we pulled out four more and then we said let's let's look at market segments that had some ranking somewhere and so there's a there's another four that came up so this is the 15 top markup segments out of the 53 in southern africa so it's just a way to look and compare and say if you were to go and think about investing in southern africa which would be the most important crop market segments that exist in southern africa so then let's switch and and jump into pipeline investment cases what we did here um we've talked about this no one one side of it is looking at the opportunity where the reporting unit is market segment we can have a lot of different data views um you know we've walked through the descriptors that we used it once we expand this and we could have descriptors around sustainability gender climate change you know a number of other descriptors that we could develop on the investment site it's the pipeline and it's the dollars invested per pipeline right and so having those two sets of information lets us calculate a pipeline investment case what we need to do is align the breeding pipelines and to the market segments and so the way we define breeding pipeline it's the sum of the breeding efforts focused on a market segment target product profile or a group of similar market segments with very similar target product profiles that ends in the identification of a distinct variety that will be positioned in the marketplace so the simplest one is on the left you've got a pipeline that's serving a single market segment as you work your way across you can have a pipeline serving three market segments you can have a pipeline that's basically comprises of two breeding efforts each of them focus on the sea market segment and then on the far right you can have some market segments that simply don't have a pipeline focused on them at all they exist but there's no breeding work being done for those particular market segments so we came up with 119 breeding pipelines that were identified we aligned those 119 to 271 over the 428 market segments and there was 101 crop market segments that were the crops that icarussat was working on that we we don't have the summit of visa breeding pipelines established for those crops yet right so there's 101 market segments that we define working with equisat that now we've got to sort of back up and say okay what pipelines is similar these are going to put in place to serve those market segments and then we had 56 market segments out of the 428 that didn't have any pipeline aligned to them at all right so there's an opportunity out there that's not being addressed by a cg breeding pipeline and without the acrocyte investment um the total investment across the pipeline summed about 100 million dollars it's in the ballpark it's not nearly as accurate as it should be and it's something it's an area that we need to work on but it's close to the amount of money that's being spent and so in relative terms comparison between the pipelines i feel okay with but we can tighten it up as we go forward so just some background on this pipeline investment data um the pipeline investment numbers represent 2020 investments so there's some change from 2020 to 22 and what's being spent on these pipelines all the descriptors describe the activity today or the population today doesn't look it's not forward-looking right and so as we think about what we need to do going forward we need to get forward-looking descriptors and say what's the opportunity 10 years out because what we're investing today is going to result in product 10 years out and the alignment of pipelines to market segments reflects the current situation so it reflects what's being done today that may or may not be the right thing to do and and we need to look at that and optimize it and say are we asking too much of some pipelines because we're asking them to sort multiple market segments with quite different target product profiles this set of data to me should be used to generate questions and there are many many ways to interpret this data right and so we have to be careful and we have to do it as cross-functional groups because someone could go into this pull something out and without input from another group um they could make some some incorrect conclusions or statements about what's being done the other caveat on this is that there's one cia cassava pipeline that's targeted at a thousand hectares it's got a significant investment eight hundred thousand dollars on an annual basis um it's that investment's coming from a private sector i pulled that out of all these numbers because if you leave it in it just screws everything right you've got a huge investment against a very small opportunity and it just throws everything off and makes it a challenge to interpret this is a diagram that sam store built for us um and it just looks at the breeding pipeline investment by center by crop and the thickness of the colored lines represents the size of the investment and so it's just a quick way to sort of get a relative feel for how much is being spent by center by crop and it also lets you see that for several crops there's multiple centers working on the same crop which is particularly relevant for wheat and you can see that there's some academic investment that's coming into wheat albeit very very small um particularly relevant for race where there's eerie race investment there's africa race race investment there's sea out race investment sometimes not targeted at the same market segment the other thing to note is the column on the right hand side number of pipelines and then number of market segments so served so in some cases seat beans there's nine pipelines serving their market segments so relatively simple simplest case you can have right one pipeline serving one market segment drop down to race and erie has name pipelines solving 24 unique market segments africa race has name pipelines serving 33 unique race market segments so you start to say okay are we are we pushing those pipelines by asking them to solve a large number of market segments and so you know it's just to me it's a cool way to look at a lot of data and start to get get a feel for who's spending what how many how many crops have we got multiple centers spending money on the seeing crop and in relative terms does the investment sort of fuel right crop bank crop as you go across these different centers now if we pull into the the dashboards and here's a spring wheat dashboard um so there's five breeding pipelines for for cement spring wheat and no you can see that there's essentially two levels of investment in the breeding pipelines for spring wheat one at about 2.4 million and the other one at about 1.4 you get hectares or you look at tons of production or you look at population and this is not to say it's right or wrong this is just saying this is what exists today right and a set of data that we can start to look at and say are we comfortable and does it does a right i mean a wheat spring wheat breeding program if we put it out there is is the the minimum cost for program 1.4 million dollars and then no that's the baseline and that's what we have to spend to have a full pipeline right those are the sorts of questions that this lets us look at and ask and answer this is the second page of the dashboard and so you can see this pipeline value on the top left this market segment footprint but look at the green and orange and gray bars on the right hand side of this which the uh just represent the total population total population under nourished total population in poverty and as you look across there there's a two or three-fold difference in the level of investment per thousand people across those pipelines and they say okay no that might be justified right there might be very good reason for it but you sort of think stop and think about it and say i mean should we be investing closer to a consistent amount per thousand people that are undernourished that that are in the that the pipeline is serving um so again just a set of data that puts all puts this in a format that we can easily look at and start to ask those sorts of questions this is a slate i pulled together for a presentation i gave the gates foundation a couple weeks ago and i hadn't done this and it was quite before and it was quite surprising to me and so what i did is i looked across all the pipelines and i looked for the lowest the highest and the mean value that was there for each of the pipelines and so if i look at investment per hectare across all the pipelines the lowest investment that we're making per hectare in a pipeline is one cent a hectare right the highest investment that we're making in a pipeline is almost fourteen dollars a hectare and you say okay that's a huge difference right i mean i know in some cases there's big area differences but that's a big difference from one center hectare to fourteen dollars a hectare for for the the the heck the hectares in a given market segment i put red box around the investment per thousand people in poverty in the rural population because to me this is perhaps a more relevant number to look at and so here we're spending anywhere from 16 cents per thousand people in the pipeline that has the lowest level of investment to almost eight thousand dollars per person in the pipeline that has the highest level of investment and so this is just summarizing the data right and putting it out there for us to take a look at and say are we really comfortable with the way that we've got the portfolio of investment a land to the opportunity that exists for us as we go forward now these numbers exclude that off the chart cia specialty starch pipeline and they also exclude the the equisat pipelines because as they come into cement at visa we don't have the pipeline investment of determined for those pipelines and we haven't identified which market segments we're going to target so no just an interesting table to start to look at this and say okay have we really optimized the investment that we're making in pipelines relative to the opportunity the pipeline serving this is just a chalk i went in and pulled out the the 20 pipelines that had the lowest level of investment per thousand people in poverty in the rural population you can see the one in red is a carter durham wheat for south asia dry lands with limited irrigation but when you dig into it we're only investing 30 000 so from my perspective we don't have a full pipeline we may have very limited testing that's about what 30 000 is going to buy us and there's 600 000 hectares there so low investment low number of hectares so you know it is what it is you can look across here and you can see there's a number of okada pipelines that fall into this bottom 20. but from my perspective what we have to think about is that there's there's also an investment from symmet wheat that's focused on a lot of these market segments as well so ideally what we need to do is pull together not a center by crop view of this but a crop view of this and say okay how much no do these these these pipelines go away if we were to merge the two pipelines and say what really are we investing in in durham wheat for this set of market segments that fall in south asia dry land between symmet and akata and then i think we'd see a different number right and we could we could be happy with that number and so just want to call that out that you know we can we need to do the same thing with rice and what's area investing what's africa rice investing and really look at the total investment that's being made against the market segments so just my thoughts on the current pipeline investment and this this that's just how how i position it how i think about it as we go forward we need to get a layman from the funders and the decision makers on what descriptors do they really want to use to prioritize these market segments right and we can we can have a lot of different descriptors but is it we're trying to antonga is that we're trained to reduce poverty is it we're trying to target based on hectares what what descriptor are they going to use to start to think about prioritizing investments we need to look at the pipelines that have a significant investment today against a relatively small opportunity and opposite to that we need to look at the pipelines that have a large investment today or no investment today um where there's a significant opportunity right and so we just we need to go into this and sort of look at the tails and start to say are we comfortable with the tails of the distribution and keep working our way back towards the the mean of what would be what we're doing we've talked about consolidating market segments and pipelines for crops with multiple centers focused on the same market segment but saying that there's different pipelines we really need to get a better understanding of the investment in a breeding pipeline by crop not all crops have i mean we can't say that a pipeline is two million dollars across all the crops there's quite different levels of investment needed crop by crop to harvard realistic full breeding pipeline and then from my perspective we need to think about developing scenarios of pipeline investments not a huge number but just start to think about some scenarios and one could be hey we want 10 percent of our investment focused on latin america 30 focus on asia south asia and 60 focused on on sub-saharan africa right and so if if that sort of guiding principle what would that scenario look like another investment another scenario may be hey we want to invest in all the crops that growers are growing in sub-saharan africa well what would that look like right so you can come up with two three four different scenarios and say how how would we develop an investment portfolio if we were to try to achieve that particular scenario so think about it like your personal investments right you've got x dollars to invest you're not going to put all the dollars in one place you're going to pick and choose some in the stock market some in the bond market some in the bank some in real estate right you're making conscious choices based on a scenario we need to think of scenarios that we could develop and would summarize this data and then give funders ask funders to choose between scenarios not as funders to choose between 120 different options right that's that's too much for anyone to to really start to digest and think about we need to do some heavy lifting and give them some some choices at a scenario level long term we need to look at future descriptors and for me those future descriptors need to be 10 years out right what what does the opportunity look like 10 years out because we're investing for that opportunity today we need to capture and debate the assumptions that will drive future market segments right and we need to get a land that we agree with the assumptions that we believe will drive future market segments and we need to identify those those market segments describe that the opportunity we think that will exist and then come up with an ideal pipeline investment against that opportunity that that's 10 years out for market segments that we believe will come into existence um in 10 years time so just some thoughts about describe what's happening today as we stop and think about the investments we're making the investments we're making for the future we need to think about looking at market segments of the future target product profiles to round this out um a target product profile's been developed for 340 of the 428 market segments um we've got and agreed to across eib aip and market intelligence initiative on what the the template looks like the template lists the traits required the scale that the traits will be measured on the minimum threshold score required for each trait in the product for that particular market segment whether the trait is essential to have or nice to have for that particular market segment and if it's an essential trait are the is the breeding pipeline aiming to improve it or is it breeding pipeline aiming just to maintain it right and so maturity is an example of the breeding pipeline is going to maintain maturity yields as an example of the green pipeline over time is going to improve yield and so that's what's in the pipeline in in the the target product profiles each template was built in a way that we could easily look across the tpps within a crop to understand the differences between market segments right so as we start to align pipelines to market segments we need an easy way to compare the tpp for those market segments to see is it realistic that a pipeline can deliver on one two three four five market segments we've captured the current leading products in each market segment and if we get this right the tpp should be used for all product advancement decisions and for all parent selection that goes into new breeding crosses for a particular market segment and so i think about target product profile is sheet of paper that i should be able to give anybody that would go into an advancement meeting and that person could sit down and say yes these other products that need to be advanced they don't need to be a plant breeder they don't need to be a scientist they've got this is what the product needs to look like here's a set of products up for consideration for advancement which ones meet the criteria it's as simple as that right if we if we use this if we get the tpp right and we use it to advance product then the products that we create and deliver to the marketplace should be what the market segment wants if we've done our work well enough and we've been consistent in what we advance this is just an example of a tppa for spring wheat for south asia uh in the optimum environments range fat and normal maturity um this page is for the grain traits so the the consumer and processor treats anything that's in that light orange and there's one of them here but it doesn't show up too well on the screen is sort of missing data at this point so we know falling number and we know we're going to measure in seconds but we don't know what the threshold score is we don't know whether it's nice to have our essential and we don't know whether we're trying to improve it or maintain it right we just need to to complete this with with the wheat breeding team uh and say okay yeah we've got it and we know what these are this is the second page which is agronomic and disease traits you can see that there's some in blue here that are indicated not applicable so as we look across market segments now we can see hey do we need fusarium in a particular market segment yes so no and are we asking a breeding program to that that's focused on a market segment to have fusarium and another one they say no we don't need it same thing with wheat blast right at the bottom of this there's two categories that are important from my perspective it's production and multiplication traits so what what's the minimum standard for production and multiplication traits because at the end of the day someone needs to be a reliable producer and supplier of seed of the new varieties that we create and if we don't get these production multiplication trades right and we don't and we're not conscious of them through the selection and advancement of product we may come up with a great product but we can't reliably and consistently produce it so it's in my mind that that's not a product right um and then also we've got unique product registration traits so are there traits that are in product regis national product registration trials that we haven't captured in the tpp above that we need to be conscious of because we don't want to get one step in front of the finish line and realize that we needed to have trade x because that trait was required to get through the national product registration trial and we didn't select for it we weren't conscious of it and so it's hit and miss if we if we if we have it and we get through that that national registration trial and then you can see that the benchmark will check varieties at the bottom so in this case um we have 13 essential traits for for this tpp three of which we're trying to improve 10 of which the the breeding pipeline is trying to maintain and from a british perspective which i was once upon a time in my life um you know 13 essential traits three of which i'm trying to to improve 10 of which i'm trying to maintain is realistic right it's but if i start to see the number of essential traits being 20 or 25 and i'm trying to improve 10 of those then that becomes unrealistic from a breeding perspective to do that and to make significant progress right so just in summary to round this out um we're working with eib communications to help us um improve these dashboards you saw some of the work that they did here and we want to get it published on the eib toolbox so we want to get it published somewhere right so that people can have access to this and so we need to work in conjunction with jason and the market intelligence group and say where are we gonna put this um so that people can go into it and start to to get comfortable with it and understand it um we need to as we go forward market intelligence work package one so jason and team are going to take over the maintenance and update of the crop market segment databases and and dashboards market sec the work package too ii led by vish bonder is going to take over the maintenance and updating of tpps and work package four and market intelligence is going to do the pipeline investment file updates and generate some dashboards on pipeline investment cases so as we move forward as i move forward now after having sort of established this foundation what am i going to do what what what is refocused can you do we're going to look at coordinating and reviewing the feasibility of delivering the product of finding a tpp and so is it realistic do we do we have the traits in elite germplasm that have been identified in the tpp um have we got too many traits that we're working on too many essential traits that we're working on and so just you know bring a a breeders perspective to the feasibility of delivering the tpp we need to look at the alignment of tpps to with what's the alignment of pipelines to tpps and market segments and just say are we being over optimistic with what we can do we need to work with abi discover and sarah on reviewing and aligning the traits that are in trade discovery pipeline with the trade center and these tpps and so why are we working on something in trade discovery if we don't have it in a tpp for a product that we want to create in the future or if we have something in tpp for a future product that we don't have an elite geoplasm is trade discovery working on it yes or no right so is it feasible at some point we'd be able to deliver that tpp that's what we need to work with with sarah and we need to work with the breeding resource initiative to ensure that we've got high throughput phenotyping assays developed and deployed for all these trades right and so if we don't have a high throughput assay um and we're not routinely using it then chances of us delivering the product defined in the tpp uh go down significantly so that's a summary of what we've done um we'd love to have a discussion of people's reactions people um questions thoughts on next steps so we'll open it up for the people in the room and people on the on the zoom call to to ask whatever question comes to mind so again thanks for the opportunity and and hope you found it useful you guys thank you peter um question about the the definition of your market footprint i mean at the moment you market footprint relates very much back to the growers aware of the world however you'll be potentially missing trading of brains and commodities so thinking of areas which may be the bread baskets of the world so northern parts of india for example where that grain is traded across a much wider area how do you potentially look at that moving forward so we get a better understanding of the consumer footprint that a particular region is serving and incorporate that in some of the analysis yeah no great question and my response is jason's going to do that but it it needs to be done but on the flip side key reason i did the market segment footprint is because i was thinking about if our goal is really to serve subsistence farmers subsistence farmers aren't selling product they're growing it to to feed their family right and so if if the goal is really subsistence growers then the growers in that footprint that are producing that crop by the target audience right so that's the reason i did that calculation i think you know i hope it came across clearly that what we did here was version 1.0 right it was what could what could one or two of us get done that established a foundation baseline across all centers all crops that we could build on your question about how we bring in brain movement and so on great question we just didn't have the resources to go and do that right and so i think market intelligence needs to look at that and say okay is that a priority right should we do that and if it is then they've got resources that they need to devote to it so not a cop out this was a huge amount of work to get this done um and give us a baseline and and you know there's more a lot more data that we have that we could show i mean we could look at a number of young women between 15 and 24 is a great descriptor right and you start to look at that and say well okay if if that's a target audience for for these pipelines then which market segments have the highest number of young women or number of kids between zero and five so there's descriptors that are out there all of this work that we presented here is built from the country level up so we can come from the country level up to the one cg sub region we had to do that because all the data was available at the country level to bring in so it's there it's just how complicated do we want to make it right and from my perspective it's relative relative ranking of this stuff that's more important to me than absolute value right and so how do we think about relative ranking the data to get it so thank you peter my comment about the area covered versus number of farmers or the people so if you see the spring wheat pipelines the pipeline one and two so perhaps the area wise pipeline one has more area but less number of farmers but pipeline two has more farmers maybe same size of the area so how do you decide you know i mean in the future so how will be the funding it's based on the number of farmers or number of consumers or based on the area yeah i think value's question is a great one right and that's that's why i i reference that we need to we need some decisions about which descriptor folks want to use to start making these decisions if i was doing it i would do it on multiple i would do a version looking at hectares i do a version looking at you know number of people in poverty and i'd start to say am i pulling out the same market segments for both descriptors if i am then that's where i need to fund if i'm pulling out different market segments then i need to start to really think through what am i investing for am i investing for hectares am i investing to reduce poverty am i investing to reduce number of people undernourished right and each fund is going to have a perhaps a different criteria that they want to use to prioritize their investments right and that's a discussion that needs to happen and you know when i presented to the gates guys they said well yeah but how did you do it in the commercial world and he said the commercial world was easy i looked at my margin opportunity by market segment and i chose the market segments that had the mark of the highest margin opportunity right that's what drove the business we're here you know we want to to maximize the margin that came back to the business so that's you know now when i say that we also had some other drivers to say hey we wanted to move from 70 percent of margin coming from north america to to no 40 50 margin coming from outside north america so that was that's the one of these scenarios right how would we invest if we wanted to change the percent of margin that we were getting in different parts of the world so you know this is i mean this question is what this data was designed to do right is to to put some data out there so that we can look at it and say but what if we did this what if we did that what if we made another choice right and that's what we've got also if you look at you know the otherwise the surplus meet from the market segment one will also go to the segment too yeah so exactly that's back to sarah's comment right i mean there's there's all sorts of dimensions that you can you can take on this right i think my my challenge to the market intelligence group is not to do a huge deep dive on one but to to do it across everywhere at the same level so that we can compare apples to apples to apples to apples right if we know intricate detail about wheat grain movement between two market segments but we know nothing about where maze may move or something we can't make a comparison right so we've got to have a common level of data and common level of understanding across all if you're going to start to pick and choose where you put your investment right so great question allison i i don't know no this is fine um a kind of following question which isn't my question to value's question with the can you so you can use that different investment versus area et cetera and in a scenario but then can you change the financial value and stay yeah because i guess there it would show up what was ranking high across all of them we kind of put a divider on current investment anyway that's just we can follow up on that but yeah there's there's lots of ways that you can look at it right and that's i think the beauty of having a group like this together to say what if this what if that what if something else i think we need a group that has no um multiple views on this to to work together because any one of us will buy us the way that we want to look at this right and we need to be really careful about biasing the way that we look at it and you know you know from a breeder's perspective you're making some investments because there's a logic to it right that logic may not be clear to someone that has no idea about running a breeding program right and so that's the discussion that we need to have to say yeah i'm making this investment because can i quickly ask my actual question would you like these traits that are out in future the 10-year traits so those are the ones that are actually being worked on now in trait discovery and pre-breeding right and if you look at the spring wheat breeding target product profile and you see things like heat drought university maintained not improved but then if we are investing a million in improving them in an upstream program i don't know i i guess sarah talked a while ago about a template to try and capture that information how far away are we having that that kind of upstream data to feed into this yeah i mean another great question right and that's why i'm saying i i this whole presentation is about what's happening today right and it captures that that baseline we need the same level or an increased level of discussion about what does the future look like and how we are landing against the future and well if we accept that climate change is going to result in two three degrees celsius difference in temperature then you know should we be growing maize or should we be switching to sorghum or miller to something else in some of these things right there's all sorts of things that we need to be thinking about so a great point but what i think we need to do is think about target product profiles for the future product and then we need to say do we have the trade today yes or no if we don't have the trade can sarah find the trade for us what's it going to cost does it make sense that we we invest that much money to get that trade to to create the product for a market segment or should we say no it's not feasible doesn't justify the investment let's look at the next option right so that's discussion that we're starting to have we needed this data set i think to help us think through that and start to get everyone on the same page this is what we know where we want to go right that's where we want to go is the most important thing because we're investing for where we're going today thank you um we have some questions in chat janet would you please open your microphone hello thank you very much and i fortunately people already asked some questions about the future stuff which i already also had so thank you for that um so another thing that was on my mind um was regarding you know i thought it was interesting that you had in your and i don't come from an economics background i come from a breeding background um but i thought it was interesting how you you broke down things in terms of the amount of investment per certain market segments and such and i'm wondering if your group is also looking at plugging in the risk the risks of not investing in certain traits so for example not all traits cost the same amount to invest in so um so in my mind there are risks of not investing even if something is expensive no again a great question and i think that's why we need to really start to drill in now to these target product profiles and say are they right do we capture the traits that we need in future products work with sarah work with others to say if we don't have an electron plasma what's it going to cost and does it make sense to make that investment yes or no right or the alternative is to say are there traits that we we could discover that would drive a unique market segment that perhaps we didn't predict right so it's a two-way conversation but to me we should be looking at that 10 years out and all these discussions not current right because we made the investments for today 10 years ago right we need to be saying the investment we're making today is for what products 10 years are what what do those opportunities look like how do we get there so i mean this should be the foundation of how we make decisions and how we prioritize and i think it's also the foundation for how we communicate to funders right i mean the significant market segments that we're not investing in today that are a big opportunity and maybe we should be investing in them maybe not they they need to increase the level of investment because you know there's 56 market segments that are significant so erie for instance is investing only in half the market segments that exist in race so we're sort of no if we don't invest in the for the others we're leaving a significant opportunity with no investment thank you thank you thank you um also we can give the microbe to gideon chrisman he he made his first first question yes please go ahead video hi peter thank you for very nice presentation um uh as you can imagine my question my my question my remark is about the is about the future which is my my area my area of work um and i'm really happy that you're you're emphasizing that uh that very much uh your presentation that we need to look at the future and how that uh how that effects uh affects the kind of decisions you need to take today today to prevent um prevent you coming up with uh solutions for yesterday's problems um there is there is as janet said there is uh there is risks involved that you need to look at in terms of not investing but it's also there is also a lot of uncertainty so not everything around the future is equally uh equally known so you can there are things that there are things that you kind of know which direction it's going like climate change that's fairly easy so you know that where where it's likely to become hotter or drier or wetter or whatever and uh what that that means for uh the the kind of traits that are needed in in crops um you also know that uh that you know you can see what happens in terms of population growth and where where where are more models going to be that need to be fed and you can also have an idea about how uh how incomes will develop uh globally to some extent and how that might influence uh [Music] the kind of diets that people want as people become more affluent in general if you look at what has happened in the past people move to a bit more very diets diets with more animal products this has implications for a wide variety of uh of crops so these are things that we that need to be take uh taken taken into account and the kind of thing that you were alluding to [Music] to earlier there's one thing i would like to add to to this and this is where uh you have the no you you you use the notion of market market segments and the market segments are uh the the the kind of focus on you know the markets the market segment for the seeds what the what kind of crops need can be grown where and looking at it from the perspective of as you said well we we're targeting we're targeting uh the resource for farmers and uh i wouldn't i would personally say probably not just the subsistence farmers but resource poor farmers and that do grow for the for the market as well and the subsist the kind of pure subsistence farmers though that's a dying greed in in another 10 20 years they're not going to be there or very very limited on the other hand we have a growing uh urban population that needs that needs to be fed so that's another that's another uh target for for cgi ar in terms of providing the resource poor with healthy and affordable diets that's that's all to a large extent an urban population that needs to be fed by the farmers in both in that area as well as as elsewhere and so those are kind of things that need to come in where you kind of have this kind of product that you have market segments both in terms of the producers as well as the consumer as the consumers and i'll i'll leave it at that thank you yeah no i mean great comments gideon and we do need to look at those things i think from my perspective and from my experience as we start thinking about the future we need the market intelligence group to capture the assumptions that they made that drove where they got to right and and we need to continue to come back and review those assumptions and say is this assumption still valid if the assumption's still valid then we're on the right path if the assumption is not valid then we need to change it and redirect what we're doing and so if we get the assumptions right the re the rest is relatively easy um and we can have the discussion with leadership and the funders about the assumptions and if if they agree with the assumptions then it is what it is um i fully agree with with your comments about needing to understand the consumer and that ties into other questions that we had about where's grain move where are the consumers going to be in the future to me those all the that needs to be captured in the assumptions right and if we get the assumptions right then we can target and no we may not be perfect but if we do it well we can drive what the future looks like right no one's no one's telling us what the future is no one knows what the future is to a large extent we can create the future if we do this well right and and that's the opportunity in front of us is to create the future and drive towards it and deliver the greatest impact we can for the dollars that we have available to invest so ken wapol you've waited patiently my friends well i peter i it's top of the hour maybe i can talk with you later later on i don't want to hold on the audience too long uh just i have a couple comments actually one was just this that the big trigger you showed about uh various marks for various crops for example you know rice and wheat and maize they kind of like rice was the largest one in in that figure so i was wondering because that's not a big deal in africa so if it's possible you alluded to that toward the end of your seminar that it would be good to split those pipelines by the region like africa and latin america and asia so that it would be nice to see because africa is where most of the emphasis these days is of the donors and everybody else so it would be good to amplify what's important in africa uh i'm sure you probably already have done that and the other comment i want to make is this all these building pipelines uh target product profiles uh we both looked at cosiba you remember that how corn essentially uh displaced sorghum and toward the west and badly towards the north just because of sheer productivity so in terms of prioritizing what's most important first and foremost i think it's going to be just uh food security how much grain would you harvest for a unit area and then all these fancy trades they come later just with those couple comments i can give one more example but i think we have a lot of time yeah no i mean great comments carol paul and if we had a day for this discussion then we could break these things out into regions and start to drill into it and say okay right i think my challenge to this cg organization and to the funders is what assumptions are you making where do you want to make your investment right do you want to make do you want 70 of your investment to be in africa yes or no if you say yes then okay now we can we can come up with a scenario that's 70 percent of the investments in in sub-saharan africa and you know 20 in asia and 10 in latin america right then you can drive it but if you try to do it from the bottom up then everyone has an opinion right and everyone's kind of yeah and so i i fully agree and we'll get there right and so i think what we have to accept is this is this is a long way from perfect what it is is a consistent view across centers and across crops right we can only improve it from here oh sure we've never had this before so we haven't had the option to look and see okay are we in balance are we completely out of balance yeah right we can make some subtle adjustments now we need to come and say okay yeah are we going to invest 70 africa 20 here 10 there okay that's the scenario someone market intelligence can create what that looks like we can say is it realistic to deliver yes or no it's going to cost this much bang make your decision right thank you thank you bud okay we'll see you on the bike trail um a big hand for peter thanks a lot there's a lot of interest in what you're talking about both here in the in the auditorium and online for those of you online who didn't get your question answered sorry you ran out of time peter's going to be here all week so send them an email if you're here on campus look for them i'm sure be glad to to interact with you so um with that we'll close and thank you very much you