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with the transition period now underway and the agendas of the EU and UK occupied by other matters the possibility of a No Deal outcome at the end of 2020 seems to be increasing especially with UK government reaffirming on several occasions that the deadline on the 31st of December is final while the topic of nodal brexit has already been discussed extensively including by us these predictions leaked documents and expert reports have primarily focused on what will be gone if the UK leaves without a deal today however we're gonna focus on what will remain if such a thing happens and why certain mechanisms will prevent the UK from being fully isolated from the EU even after a No Deal brexit this is mainly due to the World Trade Organization and complex international trade law which will break down for you in this video before we dive in I wanted to highlight that we have a few new items on the Tod our store including a whole bunch of new button badges new magnets and the reintroduction of the mystery pin badge well we'll send you over a random design for nearly half the standard price check out these items and a bunch of other stuff over in the TLDR store so let's start by briefly taking a look at a No Deal scenario if by the end of the year negotiations between the UK and EU haven't reached a conclusion on a trade deal between the two and either of the parties refuses to extend the deadline the UK is out of the EU without a deal at that point the UK's rights that he used for freedoms of goods people services and capital will no longer be nor will the UK be subjected to any EU law whatsoever furthermore the UK will no longer have to pay contributions to the Union while the Union will no longer grant the benefits of its subsidy and management programs to the UK in short the two sides will part ways however the English Channel will not become an Iron Curtain so some things will continue to exist this is because both the UK and the EU as a whole and members of the World Trade Organization the WTO is an international organization which almost every country in the world is a member of within the WTO contracting states are subject to agreements they've made in relation to international raid the World Trade Organization is a collection of agreements as well as an organization where contracting States come together to discuss the application of rules monitor each other settle disputes and negotiate new deals and amendments the main agreements are the general agreements on tariffs and trade or GATT and the general agreement on trade in services or GATS but there is a total of 21 agreements applicable to world trade organization members across all kinds of trade topics some of these rules are already very old with the first negotiations for GATT dating from the 1944 Bretton Woods conference originally there were just the trade agreements mostly within rich countries but over the years so many countries have joined that in 1995 it was decided to make a proper organization the World Trade Organization the rules of the WTO named trade liberalization and the removal of cross-border barriers among all WTO members such barriers can range from tariffs to technical procedures from quotas to public policy requirements and from local taxes to government subsidies anything that changes something in the market and affects trade is in principle covered these rules don't really stipulate what a state must do mainly what a state must not do because the idea is that global trade should be liberalized as much as possible to guarantee maximum economic efficiency and best customer prices as you might sense the idea of market economics is not where controversy and is often at odds with a nation's desire to protect certain local areas from a public policy point of view for example in the UK many fear that a trade deal between the UK and US will lead to the growth of the u.s. is big pharmaceutical companies and seriously harm the functioning of the NHS and its abilities to buy medicines but the controversies relate to basically any public policy including labor rights environmental protection employment levels public health land culture energy you name it if you want to steal video on some of the key problems that trade agreements pose to public health then do let us know in the comments below across the agreements there are four rules which protects global free trade the first is called market access any WTO member must remove any rules or barriers that disrupt trading goods or services as much as possible the second is called national treatment meaning that in like circumstances any suppliers must be treated at least as well as any local suppliers trading like products third the transparency rule states that every nation must inform the rest of the WTO when it makes rules affect trade with their nation and must help and comply with the monitoring of these rules the final one is arguably the most interesting and it's the so-called most favourite nation rule the most favored nation rule or MFN avoids countries treating each other better than other WTO members the principle is that every time a country makes a trade deal with another nation granting that other country the benefit that benefit must also be granted to all other WTO members each WTO member must be treated as the most favored nation to give an example imagine the UK makes an agreement with the u.s. allowing US investors to set up their businesses in the UK without having to abide by certain rules that benefit must then be granted to investors from every WTO country of course there are some exceptions which exist which allow nations to make their own customs unions like the EU and trade agreements or get waivers some of these big trade deals and negotiations recently include the TTIP between the US and EU NAFTA in north america Mercosur in South America the TPP a among Pacific countries and CETA between the EU and Canada the rules that allow these kind of big deals are very complex and require some hardcore legal skills to fully understand but put simply agreements among countries are allowed as long as one they do not on the whole raise barriers to the rest of the WTO but only reduce them from the party in the specific deal and to if they cover substantially all trade between the parties in essence this is to a loyd ever on making many agreements to circumvent WTO rules for the types of goods and services they wish to protect so to sum up all WTO members must aim to prevent barriers to trade from emerging and treat foreign traders just as good as their own they must be transparent about their laws and grant benefits to everyone not just their friends you may at this point feel like you know where this video is going the UK may be leaving the EU but it's not leaving the World Trade Organization anytime soon so some of the benefits that you member-states grant their own citizens will also have to be granted to the UK think of it this way the fact of the EU and say New Zealand on the other side of the globe don't have a trade deal doesn't mean there's no trade between traders in Europe and New Zealand there is this mutual protection of traders because both are WTO members and thus WTO rules like most favored nation continue to apply this will also apply between the EU and UK British traders will continue to be welcomed within the EU and still receive a large degree of equal treatment neither of them can subject each other to massive tariffs or discriminate between local and foreign suppliers these things are all regulated in WTO law that continues to apply unless either the UK or EU were to leave the World Trade Organization which is basically unthinkable of course when the UK was a member of the EU the benefits granted between the two went much further than those coming from the WTO think for example of agricultural subsidies and if there were to be a trade deal between the two it would also guarantee there'll be much more mutual protection of traders than the WTO rules guarantee but beyond the trade deal these international trade rules will continue to apply and make sure that trade between the two will continue to exist and be profitable it's because of this reason that the picture of a large wall between the UK and EU and the absence of a trade deal is inaccurate which scenario will be better for the UK is based on your own opinion and whether you think it's more important for the UK to be able to regulate its own market at least up until the point when WTO rules for the line verse is the price of uncertainty and reduced trade we hope that this video has clarified the No Deal scenario a bit and why the end of the UK's membership of the EU will not mean isolation of the UK from the EU do you think No Deal is still as bad as you thought which scenario do you think will be best and should the government still do its absolute best to avoid no deal even if it means extending the transition period let us know your thoughts in the comments and of course you can also get involved on discord make sure to subscribe the channel and hit the bell icon to be notified every time we release a video and if you want more from us you can find us across all social networks simply by searching for Tod our news special thanks to our patreon backers who make videos like this one possible you