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Global markets are now flooded with cheaper Chinese electric cars and their price is kept artificially Low by huge State subsidies this is distorting our market and as we do not accept this Distortion from the inside in our Market we do not accept this from the outside all right guys so the trend is now a reality the EU has begun a brutal trade war against China which will backfire this is an unwinable campaign you might hurt Chinese EV companies but it would decimate Europe's economy long term it's vital to remember what drives competitive industrial growth you need a combination of cheap energy integrated Supply chains and affordable human capital China has all three while Europe has none and this is how Chinese Eves went from 1% of the market share in Europe to nearly 7% in under four years EV companies in China can make Quality Cars at a cheaper price and the market loves them for it what Von just did sound smart at least on the surface we will hit China with a ton of tariffs to slow their exports down and this will give us time to develop our own Industries but she kind of confidently forgot one fact Beijing can and will retaliate back this is just round one of the fight russels has started a trade war with China escalating the tariffs from 10% to 48% on Chinese Imports this is one crazy increase in more than quadruples the existing tax rate it won't just raise prices on Chinese cars EU cars will get more expensive as well the big losers are EU customers they are being taxed to prop up EU automakers and F big government and where will these taxes collect Ed go to and here are the new tariffs coming the original rate is 10% so the figures here are additional taxes companies have to pay it's a new penalty for exporting to Europe byd has to pay 17.4% more Gil at 20% as AIC will be hit with the 38% panalty but here's the critical part all other EV producers in China including Tesla Raina and BM will face an additional 2 1% tariff in some cases this could heat up to 38% this trade War doesn't just Target Chinese Brands it's aim at the entire manufacturing base of China if your Western car companies producing EVS in Beijing we are going to punish you that's essentially what Von said this press release and it's not an idle threat Tesla a US company is the biggest victim of this trade War they make a ton of cars in the Tesla Gigwalk Factory in Shanghai in 2023 Tesla sold over 150,000 EVS to Europe that's the majority of EV exports from China into the EU other brands like Jil and byd are just the minority a fraction of this Western Brands including R and BM make up half of Europe's EV Imports the underlying message here is Crystal Clear if you manufacture in China we will punish you our taxes will crush demand for your cars and this is a very daily strategy Europe is using they want to close off the EU Common Market the Chinese Goods the idea is to force eveve manufacturing away from Beijing this is the very definition of a trade War Europe's market for EVS is huge and the margins are good there's no denying debt looking at the profit margin for byd cars it's very clear that selling to Europe even with the taxes will yield a bigger profit selling a byd seal in Germany will fetch €1 13,000 in profit conversely selling in China will yield only 1,300 there a 10 times difference with the new tariffs Europe wants to squeeze the profits of Chinese automakers and force them to sell less but China is not defenseless escalating this trade war will reshuffle Global Supply chains with Beijing being the hub for rare herbs and renewable resources Europe could face brutal restrictions China will also retaliate on the import front as well and this is something Germany is fully aware of and that's why Olaf schz freaked out when the US started the trade War a month back am the big Losers of this are German and Swedish automakers if China decides to impose tariffs on European cars coming in The Biggest Loser is Olaf Schultz he's going to get hammered by the auto Lobby back in Germany he's already deeply unpopular in the poll and this could cause him to lose everything Volkswagen is a big trouble they have 14.5% of the total car market in China that accounts for 30% % of their Global sales so the dependence is enormous indeed the same applies to other German Brands like BM and Mercedes bands Beijing accounts for 30% of their bottom lines as well a trade War threatens to send these companies to Hades the underworld this is a classic example of how EU policies are destroying individual countries within the union itself vayan trade B of China is a blanket punishment and The Biggest Loser is Germany it's not just sales under threat Chinese money and expertise will leave the country as well this will regress German automakers even more ASV for example has halted plans to build a battery cell plant in Eastern Germany in ev's batteries makes up around 30 or 40% of the entire cost as vault is a global leader and with them running away the German supply chain will be compromised they have to Source batteries from China itself overseas and that in turn will jackup product cause even further what the EU just did has many second order effects many of which we haven't even mentioned yet sheeper batteries is just one factor deindustrialization in Germany isn't over yet and if you're a Chinese company like byd does this make you more or less likely to invest in Europe it might be import tariffs today but they could come after your factories tomorrow if we look at byd's EV factories all over the world the only facility in Europe will be in Hungary coming soon and that's because China Hungarian relations are strong and beneficial the other factories are in Thailand and Brazil the upcoming plans also include Mexico and Indonesia and this is where the capital the technology and expertise will flow to Germany will have the worst of Both Worlds they will need to import more expensive raw materials Ure higher energy cost and sell to the EU Market which is in Decline in contrast China's economy is growing and this means more consumer demand will come online in the years to come even the IMF is bullish on China so we've upgraded China's growth by 04 percentage points for this year and for next so we have growth now projected at 5% for this year and 4.6% for next year there are two main drivers for that the first is the better than expected first quarter GDP numbers that came out uh for 2024 that is lifting up our growth projection so China's economy is continuing to recover so we certainly are seeing that consumption is recovering but still it has some ways to go the the strength we're seeing in public investment remains private investment is still weak mainly because of the weakness in the property sector so we are seeing uh so signs of recovery but yes there is still more that uh needs needs to we need to see more evidence of that but I think despite that we do expect that growth will be around uh 5% Europe cutting away China means Beijing needs to find alternative markets which isn't difficult the EU is not the only game in town anymore Brazil for example buys over 2 million cars a year and this is a market very receptive to China they are no restrictions in the first four months of the year Chinese Brands Great Wall Moto and B y accounted for 86% of the EV Market they have an effective duopoly there if you have a growing consumer base the next step is to build even more factories there to satisfy demand unless the West decides to sanction Brazil EV M there can be exported to Europe as well we are beginning to see China helping the global South and Bricks industrializes they are living Europe and investing in friendly countries Global Supply chains are starting to decouple and the EU trade War just made it worse another big market for Beijing is Russia and this is something very few people realize it's not just about oil and gas and commodity trade that's booming Chinese companies are selling cars like hot cakes to the Russians Russia is the biggest buyer of Chinese cars in the first five months of last year they bought nearly 300,000 Chinese cars Mexico is in second place and it's not even close the majority of cars sold are fossil fuel engines but the potential for EVS is enormous China's going to help industrialize Russia even further as the charging Network continues to grow Chinese EV Brands will find a new willing Market to sell into and when that day comes the biggest casualties will be cast from Japan another G7 country in just one year Chinese Brands like cherry and Jil have easily doubled their market share in Russia and where is this change coming from is being stolen away from Kore Ian and Japanese brands Hundai Kia and Toyota all saw their sales in Russia plet in certain cases they Fallen by More than 70% and in the years to come this plunge will only get worse the trade tariffs from Europe might hurt China in the next six or even next 12 months but beyond that the EU will be hurting more and here's why China brings in over $800 billion a year in trade surplus and that allows Beijing to invest overseas to build up demand in many countries Russia and Hungary they're just two examples when this demand is built you can be sure they will only buy Chinese EVs do you think transactions will be made in dollars Euros or local currencies the answer should be ultra obvious this escalation by Europe is going to backfire in so many ways China can impose tariffs as well or maybe they just decide to restrict critical exports to EU EU Giant Airbus is also hoping to sell 100 planes to Chinese Airlines do you think this will go through now we are in a trade War and the deal might very well collapse China isn't going to back down from this guys they have V retaliation of their own choosing no matter the outcome this doesn't look good for Europe's economy the decoupling between the west and China is only going to get worse and ironically this is driving Beijing and Putin even closer together the biggest nightmare of America this isn't a victory for the EU or the west but let me know what you think will china hit back hard and has the EU started a war they simply can't win let me know in the comments below stay safe be sure to smash the like button and subscribe as we navigate through these crazy times