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[Music] welcome to the medals investment forum my name is chen lim today is my pleasure to discuss some investment ideas with rising interest rate and i also have a writing newsletter and website chenpix.com so this is my disclaimer you can read as your pleasure so basically this is for education purpose only there's absolutely no uh investment ideas advice whatsoever so just cut to the bottom line this is the february okay this is a real interest rate that download from garmin website uh you can see on the right most what happened the real interest rate from went from negative to positive in one month okay it changed about 0.5 for interest rate for the bond market is a huge huge movement so i did some study okay let's let's see what we're going to invest in this environment so what's the sim so far is there a massive money printing there's more stimulus coming probably in a couple of weeks and then vaccine brings us a lot of hope okay look at the israel data you look at some other area of united states who has a lot of us in people start feel the freedom uh the fed continued the qe at least till the end of 2021 so this is a 1988 cycle uh you can see crb index is going up move up and down going up gold went down silver has a big spike if you notice that silver had a big spike all you will not covering that okay let's look at the next cycle the crb is a volatile but going up are still going up after the the interest rate stop riding gold is flat silver is a little bit flat and but also have a big spike if you notice oil went up copper right now so this is the 1999 cycle crb went up a lot gold went knobs 0 went up silver had the spike audio went up copper enough this is a favorite this is a commodity great boom of commodity right that's 2004 to six three years commodity went up like crazy gold went up silver were not a big spike oil went up gold were not i mean corporal enough so this is a conclusion uh usually the rate fed right when they win the race uh federated interest rate lasts about one to one to three years okay the copper and oil are the best performers gold sometimes goes up sometimes goes down and silver interestingly always have a spike uh it could be the ghost of the hunt brother if you go back to 50 years you go to the 80s and 90s we know the silver's back to 50 at that time that was um uh that was one of the most spectacular of silver okay for us we need to go back to the history and then know what's going to happen fact right now just start thinking about raising interest they probably won't do anything for a year from now so we are about a few years ahead of the cycle and then what we're looking at to take profit when the fat start to stop raising interest rates so you see the cycle right now we are low interest rate and then they stop raising interest rates and then we come to the end so we have a couple years ahead of us so this is a fair balance sheet okay so you can see it's just continuous go up so that's set up the css this is the gold uh unfortunately the the gold gold price you can see uh is coming to pretty weak lately okay so uh what what what i we see testing about 1700 this week it's kind of interesting because it's just the same area that gold was was before so 1700 1700 is a very very good very good support of gold uh one thing different okay from gold versus other things like bitcoin is that when gold drops the buyer will show up uh physical buyers show up uh remember last time at the meadows investment forum i was discussing or complaining there's very little physical demand from china india uh the most uh investor from new york are buying gold now they are selling though they're selling there but all these uh physical demand are waiting they're not gone they're waiting okay uh if gold drop it should go drop to 1500 i'm pretty sure there will be a lot of physical demand will pick up and if job even if if they drop lower central bank will start buying maybe 1500 will start by maybe 1600. so the thing about gold is that even it has a commodity like a big movement there always a strong buying uh out there so let's see if gold can hold 1700 support here the copper copper has been going gun buster right broke four today pull back below four and i seem to like bounce back again so four seems to be a good resistance once they break four i expect copper to go higher because there's a structural deficit and then you see in uh in a research report copper always do well in a rising rate always uh audio rui went above 60 wti based on my experience with energy uh i think it's very hard to go much higher than this because the fracking will be very active and then they also iran could be have a deal you know with the united states and their audio could come back to the to the market so that's another area uh i'm not particularly bullish i was buying audio last november uh energy company i sold most of them you know but except for those uh juniors like the power and like uh you know uh etc so silver silver is interesting right now you can see it's um it's so flat it's consolidating around 25 area so let's see if it holds okay i see for our investor you need to keep in mind that silver always spike during the raid rising rate almost every time so for us investor we need to um to prepare for that last time they will have a little bit erratic movement a very high volume and unfortunately it didn't break out but i i believe and we will have at least a big breakout uh 50 probably too low we may go to much higher and then when you come down probably silver will stabilize a much higher price because silver is in demand from solar panel to the other thing clean energy that's the platinum one of my favorite i i will discuss it later is one of the best performing metals this year and they they're used right now they're using pattern to replace palladium and then they also have a platen to uh using hydrogen cars that's another big demand so this is my favorite part okay so you look at the rhodium rhodium has this is a etf so it's actually you need to add another zero to that uh twenty five thousand eight twenty six 000 as of today and when uh almost tenfolded from the bottom of last year a year ago uh what it does is using a a catalytic converter okay and with the china start implementing the new uh air control pollution for the cars uh this is really in demand and then the world is running out of protein believe it or not so i'll talk about that and potentially investment ceases u.s dollar you can see it's around 90 dollar range and for the long term if u.s dollar breaks 90 dollars they will really unleash a big rise for commodities that i'm quite excited about so we want to take a look close look of this following the us dollar so uh so this those are the investment ideas uh right now okay uh we are want to focus on industrial metals okay uh green medals until the fed rates finish raising the interest rate so that's for this cycle and then as we know fat hasn't stopped raising interest rate yet the market is really interested for the fact so this is going to be a couple years off and i like particular platinum group metal platinum palladium rhodium and copper i like silver all right oil price i believe right now is pretty high uh gold is very high i mean gold price is quite high for the for the junior for for the miners okay and then for the investor we always want to prepare for the spike of silver it happened once in 10 years so you don't want to miss that so one thing is that the buy copper stock copper i like copper gold okay with the gold flavor free for mac marin is one of example uh it just started falling down today pretty sharply it's good thing about you don't buy it when you know copper broke four dollars it's on cnbc everybody buying ripper mcmahon uh it's dropping pretty hard uh just before it came out on the presentation uh this always has support about 50 day moving average we probably will get there next week that could be an opportunity to buy but i'm you know a little bit uh stock picking i i like another stock much more than freeport uh it was financed still still water okay it's a south african project they bought stillwater which is a palladian platinum mine in the united states montana okay so uh you look at the the market cap okay so um they uh they are the play for this rodeo boom okay look at the building it's almost like bitcoin right so actually uh 2007 that that over here i was recommending to buy rhodium at that time her rhodium will pick up or who knows how high it went uh so we were buying at about a thousand now oh it's uh actually this graph is over that it's 26 as of today and still going higher okay i tell you why that this is a chinese standard okay but you can just look at the china this is the old standard this is new 6a just implemented last year this is 6b going to implement this year to the next two years you can see how much uh reductions it came in of old standard new standard versus uh old sender new standard so this 6p will be the most strict uh street clean air uh standard in the world okay will be stricter than the united states stricter than than europe because you know the pollution in china is a big problem uh 40 they will require 40 more pgm and then simply the word is just running out of the pgn uh they're talking about using palladium to replace rhodium but you need a seven seven ounce to replace one ounce of rhodium it's still in the lab still researching that let's think about that that put the floor of rhodium for twenty thousand at least twenty thousand uh dollars probably go much higher so spanning still water okay their biggest earning contributor is this uh rhodium i can tell you and then from this year's year chart uh they will contribute at least three billion uh this year to ebitda at least three billion and they are they already have two billion ebitda in second half of last year they're paying uh 20 87 cents dividend it's about a 19 stock right i mean when i recommended last week uh mrs fire was buying at 18 but now and 19 probably go to 20 going to be much higher and you're looking at that it's trading about two to three times ebitda it's about one-third of free for mcmahon so when the big cap has such a big earning gap usually my experience when it got discovered by wall street it can move very very quickly uh they're supposed to pay 25 to 30 earnings in dividend i see they pay at least two dollar dividend this year probably more uh you know i would have been surprised to pay more like three or four dollars for nineteen dollar twenty dollar stop so it's you you got double digit dividend and then dramatic earning girls it's that free they're talking about share buyback so this type of stock that i like uh you know and they have also make a lot of gold they have one million ounce gold i forgot to mention so they have a pgm uh and then they also have gold so it's uh have a both flavor the best of both worlds so this is my investment philosophy and i just believe there's too many common dom in the junior market i'm trying to buy uh to do it through stop picking to make money the old-fashioned way to create value for shareholders so that's how we make money uh so i tend to invest in different sectors okay i have juniors i have producers i have a future i have also other sectors we will discuss a little bit later uh in biotech and other things okay so i one thing about me as i buy and sell i do tell people when to sell i mean i last uh november when uh fighter racing came out just after the last metal investment forum finally remember was 90 that was a shock wave right i immediately told my subscriber to sell goals right at that time to sell gold we buy it back to work stop we buy cruise line with my energy or buy movies here that we buy uh you know hotel we buy you know resort by whatever you know there's quite a few big big winners out there since then you know like one of the hotel ashford actually it tripled in like this two or three weeks you know if you buy into those at the right time it can be very very profitable so the hygiene risks i do hatch uh occasionally okay i shorted audio 2008 the shorter palladium 2020 last year look at the big job and you know i tend to uh hatch in different different slightly differently so this is the game and this is what i mentioned i i was pounding the table to buy gold at the 1500 and silver at 12 which was very good buy when i was last year about a year ago and i took some profit and after the immediate after last uh medal investment forum that pfizer vasting came out and i was selling southern gold and then we got into those um back to work stock doing vero i saw them they're still riding i probably saw too early so but you know good money and then looking back to buy gold and also like basement though is gold flavor a pgm with gold flavor uh you know so that's basically what i'm doing and i think the juniors is very different your gold price is quite high so this cover will get rewarded so uh don't get discouraged by the gold price movement as i said the difference between gold and bitcoin is when bitcoin drops there's no bottom well gold they're always a physical buying out there you just need to be patient so this is um um uh my uh that's my website here and i used to focus almost exclusively in junior about 10 10 years ago 15 years ago i'm a hedge fund there with me for many many years which i really appreciate if someone came up with my my subscribers you know happy to see you here [Music] [Music] you