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hello this is the tradestate u.s stocks and futures and forex market preview domestic and international economic data roadmap forward the week beginning sunday the 7th of march 2021 ending friday the 21st or the 12th hoping a good trading week last week it was a good week for us uh here's a look at the e this is the dollar index so uh came back up it's testing the lows from back in september and you know it's been very boring for the year i mean you talk about five point range on the dollar index for nine months ten months and it's just not exciting and we're now testing resistance i wouldn't say this is a key point that you want to get involved in anything but generally speaking uh you know at least we've bounced a little bit the last week or two and we have a couple winners but the ranges have been bad and we're still stuck in this horrible forex range here's the look at the euro dollar the inverse of the dollar index mostly so there's nothing new to talk about there here's a look at the pound dollar and as you can see the pound at least came back a bit it has not been stuck where the euro dollar and the dollar were uh here's the aussie dollar came back a bit uh euro yen is very unexciting uh the pound yen didn't do anything this week for four days at least pound swiss is what it is we've got a month until we hit the easter holiday around the world and good friday and everything so there's just not a lot going on uh let's take a look at the intraday action so we're gonna go to the 30-minute candles here's the euro dollar for the week so you know you're talking about you know 200 pips for the week or whatever but most of it was all one day which was the thursday and friday drop or whatever so it wasn't very interesting the pound dollar high to low for the week it's a little better i mean we had the let's say three and yeah it's still about 200 it's not very interesting it's just not been that interesting in 4x so i don't get all folk focused on 4x because it's not there right now we're just doing what we do and we'll call it when there's something there and we won't call it when there isn't that's how we live and die in trade side here's the es front month futures contract this is the daily chart of the broad market in futures forum so we bounce again i mean we're right near the highs all over again within 100 points of the highs on the es and that market's still holding up very well obviously um you know passing something here in the house in the senate that could help out a lot of people and get people back to work and if you know you can sit around and talk about how you just want the rich people to have the money or you want to talk about whether or not you need the people at the bottom have the money and how that affects the markets but at some point in time this looks a little bit better for getting the money to the people at the bottom 20 million people who've been out of work for almost a year it's just not pretty um so that's probably positive and but again the market's just holding up and there's a lot of money anyway you look at it when you print money a lot of it ends up back in the stock market so that's positive uh here's a look at uh crude oil up a dollar 65 this is the thing that's bothering everybody right because as the economy starts to pick up as the economy starts to gain some traction as there's supply and demand is the more important demand for oil you know it starts to take off again now it's not that we're not producing enough oil it's not that we don't want to get off of oil i mean anyway with the brain wants to get out of oil but right now what we're at is the economy is heating up um you know obviously when it went down to 20s or whatever that was kind of crazy that's not the way oil should be so you know a fair price for oil is probably 50 60 bucks uh we're looking at 67 right now a little little breakout do we need to ramp up this a lot of this is opec right they're not producing as much as they should and that's out of our control but it definitely suggests that the economy is heating up that leads to um oil demand going up and if opec is not producing i mean we are but if opec's not producing then the prices go up and that's what you're seeing at the gas pump and everything else so it's it's fine uh it's actually a positive sign for the economy that this is happening all right let's look at gold up eight dollars but off the lows so gold's going nowhere this is your inflation gauge rate if there's bad inflation gold should go up it's not going up so this is going to be really interesting it has to be cash gained 73.47 on friday so again we're within you know 100 points of the highs on the s p no big deal nasdaq 100 up 204 points but the tax you know i mean obviously the techs got out ahead of themselves tesla and a lot of these stocks way overvalued maybe they're starting to come in maybe we're gonna go back to just some i mean the soft landing version of this is that you just get back to some normal valuations in these stocks and that means they have to come back in so that's fine i mean obviously the worst version of this is that uh you know the market comes back in hard and you know people and we get a panic situation but we'll see i'm telling you right now that the market's overvalued i don't know that it has to fall apart right now the way it is because we're printing money and we're doing a lot of things so we could hold up but we'll see what happens the socks up 89 points um nice bounce off of that look at that the 13 sell signal two weeks ago right down to that uh static trend line the red line that's the goal of the 13 cell signal and then we bounced off of it so that's a perfect move on the socks we'd love that biotech's never got 13 but they they have come back the biotechs will come back a bit but again remember the biotech's got a lot of publicity for a while because everybody's looking for um covet vaccinations and whatever and now that most of that's handled um i don't know what else there is right now that's new in the biotech world russell 2000 up 45 it puts us near the highs the vix down 3.91 puts us back at 24.66 so it's been kind of back and forth it was in the low 20s just a week or two ago off that red static trend line that we've never broken properly and you know back to 32 or so after that so we'll see what happens the trend closes at 1.03 puts the 10 moving average at 0.92 i count backwards 10 days there's a big number up over 220 that's going to keep that moving average up but 1 2 3 four five six seven eight nine yeah until that big number comes off it's not going to give us a chance to take that 10-day moving average under 0.85 uh nasdaq volume was 7.7 billion shares on friday that was a big lift from thursday and friday we're a big lift from where we'd been at back down the 5 billion year range but again remember four or three billion shares is kind of like we'd be fine with that in the markets we're just not seeing the action i mean it's a good week it's a good two weeks for us from a trading perspective but we're just not seeing the action uh advanced climate ratio in nasdaq plus 1689 so more sorry plus 15 31 so more stocks up than down uh on the nasdaq plus uh 1762 on the new york google gains 63 dollars and 14 cents puts it near all-time highs once again apple up 1.29 and you're not in your all-time highs but still holding up fairly well netflix at five dollars and 10 cents doesn't really matter again this is inside the candle from the 4th of july essentially amazon up 22.89 no one cares tesla down 23.49 um this one's slipping back look at the other day tesla's probably overvalued but there's nothing wrong with the company so don't panic right it's not like a big deal stock this stock probably deserves to be back at like three 400 bucks we'll see what happens but um that's not the end of the world if it does facebook uh up 6.64 cents on friday that doesn't even shows a blip puts you still inside that uh the opening august candle uh zoom down 5.66 swept the lows of the year we made a little money there on friday goldman sachs down 1.92 trying to roll over from the highs test tlt the 20-year bond etf down 27 up 27 cents off the lows so the bonds are near lows and it is what it is the dow was up 572 points so again the market continues to hold up fairly well here big bitcoin up 1570 points today 51 125. it's pretty near the highs and put call ratio uh at 0.738 all right in terms of intra week action let's go to five i'm sorry let's go to 10 minute charts on the es so we can see it and this is the whole week so small gap up on monday headed higher that was the height of the week closed not the highest tuesday flat opening closed slightly negative wednesday a little small gap down and went lower a little bit not a big deal thursday flat open there weren't really any big gaps this weekend flat opening didn't do much closed lower later in the day friday small gap up filled quickly so thursday was the low and monday was the high and then friday we came back and guess what with all that we closed basically right where we started the week so it wasn't really eventful it was a good week for us from a training perspective and there's nothing to complain about from that perspective in terms of economic data coming out this week sunday current account out of japan economy watchers sentiment out of japan on monday leading indicators out of japan swiss unemployment rate german industrial production that's fine uh centex investor confidence final wholesale inventories out of the u.s manufacturing sales out of new zealand uh household spending here in japan final gdp price index out of japan um nothing really there so you go to tuesday now you've got what preliminary machine tool orders out of japan french final private payrolls german trade balance italian industrial production revised gdp out of europe nfib small business index at the u.s westpac consumer sentiment out of australia china's cpi and ppi all right we head into wednesday french industrial production cpi here in the us that's one of our big three so we'll be half size ahead of that for forex trading canada's got their rate announcement from the bank of canada crude oil inventories here in the us and then they've got canada as a press conference after that 10-year bond auction federal budget balance new zealand in the afternoon here has the fpi japan has ppi so not a lot there thursday china has m2 money supply and new loans uh monetary policy statement out of the bank of england bank of europe right ecb so they're like they're fed the broad european fed uh jolt's job openings check natty gas here in the us 30-year bond auction uh business manufacturing index out of new zealand uh same with japan foreign direct investment at china and then going into friday we've got german final cpi construction output gdp out of the uk goods trade balance index of services industrial production and manufacturing production out of the uk french final cpi italian quarterly unemployment rate consumer inflation expectations industrial production out of europe uh we've got the gdp estimate at the uk uh unemployment rate and employment change numbers out of canada along with their capacity utilization wholesale inventories here in the us ppi cb leading index and then preliminary university of michigan sentiment numbers here in the us so you know most of the data for us that matters is back on wednesday with the cpi numbers and then of course the bank canada's re-announcement which won't be the big deal charts as usual brought to you by e-signal if you've not yet taken a trial of our services feel free to do so we will help you out for a couple weeks and help you make money have a great trading week