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this is national net lease market overview state of the market this is a great panel uh randy's gonna from boulder group is gonna moderate i will kind of flash their info up here but you can also remember go see this in the lobby so you can get at their information there stop share there's you can see me double that's kind of fun in the background there so uh randy are you there i'm here excellent well take it away if you need anything my friend i'm in the background thanks and thanks for having me um am i on the video screen no there you are randy all right thanks thanks sorry journalist for having me and thanks for hosting the national netley summit the virtual version um you know all my panelists are here so i think we'll just jump right in um you know gordon i think i'll start with you which is you know the topic of the moment unfortunately is still covid you know i want to get your thoughts on you know your coven's impact year to date and kind of you know how it's impacting your thinking for or you know now and well into next year as well so gordon thank you um you know it's been it's been very interesting uh to see what's happened here right to see what what sectors have performed what haven't performed um you know we've been fortunate that 100 of our tenants have paid 100 of their rent and we you know have a variety of different business sectors so that's definitely factored into our thinking you know i think really the conclusion that i've come to is you know our focus on industrial has really proven to be quite uh quite good in terms of of lessening the impact of covid you know and i think that's gonna i think that'll be our focus continuing forward um you know interest rates are continuing to be low and i think that uh i think these continue to be great investments and will continue to be great investments in the netley sector right you obviously have to to pick and choose um we've never been big fans of retail um look obviously people are still going to buy things people are still going to sell things and it's just going to be different um you know but as as we said just a few minutes ago um you can't wipe out an entire you know you shouldn't wipe out an entire asset class right so um there will be some winners in the retail space and you know if you spend your time focusing on it and trying to pick who they are um i think you can do well i mean it's a sector that we're probably going to stay away from with the exception of you know distribution warehouses for retailers just because it's not really our area of expertise figuring out which retail store will be the one to succeed um but i think certainly industrial going forward is going to be going to be you know excellent investments all right gordon so what has how's it kind of impacted your firm as far as you know working and and fundraising to the extent that you've been doing fundraising you know kind of how's covet change things today um you know that's an interesting question um in terms of fundraising um we did just finish up fundraising our fourth dedicated net lease fund you know we raised a billion dollars of equity um which was great we're really happy about that um we had our final close september 30th right so it's six months of you know finishing up fundraising during covet we were fortunate that we'd done you know a lot of in-person meetings before and things like that and fortunate that we have as a firm a lot of repeat clients and in the net least business as well um so that's very helpful but i think you're going to see a you know a sea change the the virtual meetings went very well um you know it's a little harder to build a connection with somebody who's a first-time investor with you but you can certainly do it and i think that certainly for investors that you have a relationship with i think you're going to see so many more of those meetings taking place over the internet i think you're going to see it you know the need to travel to all those places greatly decrease um you know quite frankly it really helps keep people scheduled right i mean if you're going if you're getting on a plane and you're trying to see somebody and your plane's delayed right you show up late they're still going to see you because you've flown in from wherever you're coming from but it messes up their whole day and here you're able to really maintain your schedule and i think it works well and so i think you're going to going to see a change there um in terms of our offices what are investors looking at as far as have their perceptions of net lease change in regard to covid retail aside meaning are they more enthusiastic about net lease are they more enthusiastic about industrial you know what is the impact of covered on fundraising investors um it's been interesting right i mean i look at you know the sector we have historically played in is primarily less than investment grade right um so you looked at some investors who said hey we want yield this is a great way to get yield we think interest rates will stay low you're going to get a great spread right so we're going to continue to go ahead some people say we're going to double down because we really like it um and then you had others who said hey you know um great investment really like it but i think this is the time to play the distressed credit market you know which my response was you know you kind of get the best of both worlds if you focus on net lease with less than investment grade tenants right because you know it's really a crime i mean i really view it as a credit play at the end of the day but you've got the security of a hard asset um you know and so a lot of investors started to think you know think that way but then you just had others you just said hey you know what we just want pure play distress we're gonna go ahead because we think it's a good time for it so i'll get to everybody else in a second just one more question gordon yeah um impact of of your actual firm as far as communication staffing you know how you've been able to cope with the challenges that we've faced sure so i mean as a firm i mean we're here in new york city right so we've got not only state regulations but city regulations um you know the city says you can have 50 capacity um so our office has been open um at 50 capacity purely on a voluntary basis um you know as and as a multi-strategy firm right you've got real estate net lease distress debt clo cdos you know it really it really um depends on kind of what your strategy is right anybody that has more of a trading strategy right those people tend to be coming to the office you know the firm's done a phenomenal job in terms of making sure that it's safe um clean things like that got great protocols in place and so the more trading strategies tend to have you know the majority of their people there um others that don't um you know it's kind of a mixed mixed bag you know some people particularly younger people like to come into the office you know older people or people who have other health issues tend to stay away um but in terms of communication you know it may seem a bit counterintuitive but certainly as a group um you know i actually think we're communicating more and the reason for that is um you know we now have a daily call whereas before we had a weekly meeting and you talk to people during the day so i think more people you know have a better idea of what's going on it may not be as sort of in depth for some people right because you know if you saw them you just walk over and say hey let's talk about x y z um but i think on the whole you know there's actually more communication um than before and it's actually worked out well and we're fortunate that we've got a you know a team that's been together for a long time worked well um we have onboarded you know three other people during covid um you know which which has actually gone well um integrated well and everybody's working well so um you know it actually does kind of show that you know if you need to you can work remotely and and and not have a major disruption thanks uh brian now bryan maybe you want to talk about you know impact of covet on on your firm on your outlook kind of on how things are to date and nar global thanks sure thanks randy um you know i think generally speaking our our business has been relatively unaffected you know we have two net lease strategies on our platform uh one one that focuses primarily on retail one that focuses primarily on on industrial and office um and and both of them have been extremely durable and resistant over the last nine months you know rent collections uh we've also been extremely fortunate that our rent collection is extremely high um and you know i think we look back to to where we've been focused over the last couple years you know heavy on industrial and and in the retail space you know very selective in terms of the types of assets we were investing in focused primarily on gas inconvenience auto repair and dialysis among others which have all held up really well so you know that's enabled us to stay really consistent and true to our strategies over the course of this this whole thing um we did spend you know an awful lot of time over q2 and q3 tracking rents and and just talking to our tenants you know and i think while there was a shift in our day-to-day um you know there was a lot of positive that came out of it uh the relationships that we've been able to kind of build upon with our tenants has been a real benefit to this whole situation um you know some of the conversations start with with potential deferrals but you know they end with you know when we come out of this we're going to be looking at doing this and we're going to be looking at doing that and you know we need partners like yourselves to help us get through those things so we're starting to see the benefit of that now you know a number of our tenants are coming to us um looking to take advantage of opportunities within their respective businesses trying to grow their footprint uh by buying competitors and obviously um that's where we step in either through m a sale leasebacks um or expansions of their existing facilities on the industrial side but either way um you know that's something we always welcome and we're always looking to to do uh with our existing tenants because those are those are exclusive opportunities that no one else is seeing and um you know that's that's a great way to spend our time and allocate capital so um and i'm speaking louder because someone said the comments that i'm not can't hear me um you from the tenant feedback and from all the meetings you've had will you be changing your acquisition criteria in q1 and q2 and what other changes will you be making based on conversations you've had the last few months you know not really um like i said we we're we're fortunate enough to have been focused on on the areas within within the real estate the broader real estate asset class that have held up really well so you know we've always focused on investment grade and and credit quality tenants which which is obviously a place that you know you can feel more comfortable than others right now so we'll continue to focus on that space um but we'll also continue to focus on on the asset classes within real estate that we we've been focused on to date you know industrial we're not going anywhere on industrial maybe we'll be a little bit softer than we already were on office but generally speaking you know i think we're going to going to stay the course thanks um okay now we'll go to andrea andreas kind of give me the wp carry version of you know how covet has impacted you sure i'm not gonna sound terribly original after uh some of my colleagues just spoke but um you know it hasn't been very disruptive for us you know we we've got a nearly 20 billion dollar portfolio and our rent collections have been in the 98 99 um rate which which we're quite proud of um you know for me personally the biggest disruption was you know we did go on pause for a little bit out of an abundance of caution you know we had a really good pipeline built coming into into this pandemic and there's a little bit of a reset there um that being said you know we've recovered nicely we've been very active in the market on the acquisition front but also in the in the public debt and equity markets uh we've raised nearly 400 million dollars of equity we did a 500 million dollar bond offering that um you know i believe was the lowest coupon in at least history obviously been benefiting from where yields are but that was about 2.4 percent you know we're all spread investors here so to be able to lock in an attractive cost of capital in this environment um you know notwithstanding the disruption has has been beneficial uh i think we've also benefited to um you know being a partner having been in the market for so long having transacted having very good relationships with tenants and brokers as a known trusted quantity out in the marketplace you know with an uncertain backdrop like we're seeing right now um companies brokers you know no one wants a false start no one wants surprises and so to be able to come in and and you know provide a bid that has a tremendous amount of certainty behind it um and and trust with your counterparties um you know it's allowed us to i think do a little better than market on some of our recent acquisitions um and and you know continue to be aggressive on the offensive and so um definitely a bit of a setback in the early part of the year but we're trying to be aggressive and make up for lost time thanks anything else for you know the next six months that you're going to change because of what's going on today or it's more of the status quo no i think it's a status quo i mean similar to to gordon and um and brian i mean we are underweight retail underweight office uh mostly industrial which has performed well you know something that that gordon and i have talked about on this panel in years past is is lease structure um you know the lion's share of the deals that wp gary does are sell e-specs where we're originating the lease for writing the lease we're ensuring that all the protections that you don't really think about until an event like this happens are in place and i think um you know this this event has demonstrated the resiliency of the portfolio and the rigor and the underwriting and and the writing of our documents and and you know a big chunk of our portfolio is sub-investment grade um and and we've come out quite nicely and so i think there's a greater appreciation in the marketplace for the importance of of proper structuring um and and now you actually have events that you can point to uh that are tangible for for why certain protections and the documents are required so i think you know going forward that will be a theme but in terms of asset allocation you know we're going to continue to do what we're doing you know we invest in europe as well as the united states uh spreads in europe are phenomenal right now and so you know all our money is fungible and well allocated as we see the best risk return but right now you know we're seeing good opportunities you know across across the globe and um you know look forward to building a strong pipeline for 2021. thanks um last but not least aaron same question to you and maybe you can give a quick commercial as the newest of these firms that are here on you know my family of course of course i hope you can hear me uh well i know some people working from home tend to maybe sometimes uh not have the best connection but you can hear me we can hear you fine okay good well a little bit of background about us uh one family property since its inception earlier this year in 2020 has acquired about 30 million dollars of net lease with about uh 40 million dollars in our pipeline to acquire over the next i'd say 30 to 60 30 to 90 days really and um you know i know uh everyone on the panel quite well obviously we're we're all either in the net lease retail or net police industrial space and i think we kind of all have our uh thoughts and and kind of comments about the space you know one thing you know i'd like to just acknowledge is um you know the previous panelists kind of mentio it we shouldn't take broad strokes and range and look at things in kind of a holistic big picture we really got to get into the micro and the guts of really what's going on so to say you know retails not thriving or not doing well you know amazon with our acquisition of whole foods is a great example whole foods is doing incredibly well um you know and and you just look at a there's a large kind of pool of retailers who are doing thriving and doing incredibly well throughout the pandemic you look at walmart you look at costco you look at a variety of these retailers who um you know comp positive or are doing incredible and um you know they're best-in-class retailers they're to you know brian's point their investment grade and they're the best in class they're not the mom-and-pop retailers maybe who aren't a shopping center um and unfortunately due to the pandemic you know hair salon and nail salon those tenants we can all i think agree aren't going to necessarily do so great in a pandemic where you're supposed to be social distant and not be um you know crowding together in group settings but to say a grocery store a convenience store or a pharmacy is not going to do well i just i can't buy that and i don't think that anyone on this panel anyone who's signing into this would get on board with believing that that's you know the future of this space so you know to be really truthful and honest i'd use another term someone else use i really see a portion of the net least space being unaffected and that's again the top quality tier tenants and most of them are s p rated they're fortune 500 companies and they're doing billions of dollars in revenue and and had figured a way to take offense as opposed to being on the defense and saying you know put our hands up we can't figure it out you know i think you know in addition to that randy you know to your point gordon's point um stimulus seems like you know another round could be here could be imminent and i think most importantly for our country we need to get the dollars and cents into people's hands that need that money because they have been depressed by this this pandemic and they need the ability to get out and spend and pay their bills and bring food home and put food on the table so thanks um all right let's keep going to the next question gordon back to you um kind of looking for you know a lot of us deal with existing product and the reselling of it you know on the smaller retail side as a lot of our experiences um but kind of want to touch base on where we don't play as much you know kind of the sales spec market what you're kind of seeing from tenants and you know the financial situations and the different tenants who are looking for sale lease back and what you think transaction volume and at least back market looks like for the next few months gordon sure i think you know i think silly spec volume will go up right i mean really at the end of the day sally spec um you know is really an alternative form of financing for companies you know companies need liquidity you know what what we saw was that early on in covid um we did see a big big pickup in in volume and i think you had you know the smart companies the smart ceos cfos were looking at this and saying hey you know this could go for a while we have no idea you know how this ends up um let's shore up our balance sheets today let's let's do a sally's back and let's get some liquidity you know some of them have been sitting on the cash um a lot of them paid down debt and some of them you know have taken the the opportunity to acquire a competitor um but i think you know the next several months you're going to see you know a big uptick in in the origination of sale lease backs um deteriorating balance sheets of some of those sales by prospects or or they're these are actually getting done and the credit's still good enough for the majority of them no they're getting down and the credit's still good enough i mean look we play way down the credit spectrum so we spend a lot of time um looking at that and and that is um you know it does take a lot of work um but you know you got to look through and look at the fundamentals of the business and see okay here's the path to you know either remaining the way they are or here's the path to getting better or say you know what the uh there seem to be too many headwinds here it's it's time to it's time to pass on this one um but yeah i mean you know depending on the industry depending what's happening if you look at the numbers that we saw in the presentation before right i mean you've had an uptick in um you know in revenues year over year for some of these some of these industries and i mean some of our tenants had their best um you know best quarters ever which seemed a little bit counter-intuitive but it really kind of depended the area that they were in and and how the public looked at what product they produced um what they thought their need for that was going to be going forward all right so you're you still think it's a robust market next year and and to be significantly better than this year is kind of your thoughts i do um you know i really do i mean companies need liquidity um you're still able to get financing out there and so i do think it's going to be a i think it's actually i think it's going to be a great year next year for sale specs i like the optimism uh brian are you seeing the same thing yeah um you know i i think uh i think gordon nailed it in terms of you know where these companies tend to be heading and and you know the fact that that leads to sale east backs more often than not um you know companies come come to sell eastback financing um as a way of shoring up balance sheets um but i think the other thing that we're going to see that's going to going to add to that is going to be all the m a that comes out of this um which is another way that we see sell these specs obviously right i mean you know some companies um are going to come straight to the southeast back uh market for their solutions throughout all this um some of them won't make it and that's going to be buying opportunity for those that do right um you know that's that's that's the type of sales back that we tend to do um partnering um on an acquisition uh whether it be with a pe firm or with with an underlying operator buying a competitor and i think that's that's the type of deal that we hope to see come more often um and i think we will uh heading into next year uh for sure so i think there are going to be a couple of different ways that we're going to see so these facts continue to rise and um it all looks positive in terms of volume from from where i'm sitting andreas any different thoughts no i would agree with that i i mean um there's certainly some halves and have nots in the market right now um and and i think the companies like gordon was saying some companies have had their best quarters ever and they're being offensive and going out and raising you know the best capital they can i mean i agree with this sentiment on mna i think one of the things that's going to help the net lease market i mean the deals that we're doing are typically 15 20 25 years in duration and so um if you think about we're in a historically low yield environment we have an uncertain backdrop and you know execution for the most part if you have a viable narrative for how you're going to get through this pandemic is is good right now and so if you're trying to lock in a good source of of capital and have visibility on your operating costs on your on your borrowings for a long horizon uh there's no product in the sub-investment grade space that gives you you know that kind of visibility i mean if you go in the debt markets you're gonna get five seven year terms that's it you've got a balloon at the end you have to repay um it's often floating you know you just don't have that rate locked in um so i think i think uh for that reason though there will be a big uptick and i think i think next year is actually going to be a monster year in in uh in silly spec origination um in terms of people being office industrial retailer or any specific no no industrial will continue to drive things for for the next 12 months i mean and and i agree with the sentiments that there are you know there are retail uh transactions that make sense you know i did one last year that was um for bass pro it was their largest uh store in all of north america you know i've i've done deals with companies that have less revenue than this one store had i mean it's just an absolute beast in it and it uh it was really kind of the backbone of of of uh their operations and that geography and so that's a that's an example of where you can take you know kind of unique collateral uh retail uh market where there there have been headwinds and there is pushback but there's a very clear story for why they're gonna perform differently no matter what the headwind is than some of the other competitors that that kind of get flooded with this with this anti-retail narrative i said the same with office i mean there there are office transactions that do have a criticality component it's hard it's not it's not every deal but if you have an office with you know some specialized lab uh integrated into it or um you know just a very unique employee base or a data center or uh you know disaster recovery you have a helipad on the roof i mean there are things that there are elements you can find in these deals um that certainly fit the the criticality narrative that we're all looking for and give you a security profile not too dissimilar to industrial um you know it's hard to put a billion dollars out only to an industrial it's competitive and and you know you have to have an open mind some of these other asset classes uh if you want to continue to build a pipeline thanks i'll give quickly an example of a deal uh we did earlier this year that i think is is a good example of of a company whose uh business line and narrative was was a good one and was well received by the market and went out was opportunistic and it's in everyone's backyard in chicago it's for uh weber stevens weber grills everyone knows you know i i i've seen more weber grills throughout this pandemic than i think i've ever saw in my life you know everyone's outside everyone's grilling it's it's they had you know they were doing phenomenally well and so that was the deal we love the real estate the you know iconic brand um you know no matter what what the backdrop is that's the deal you can go into and feel really good about it you know if properly structured that you know you're gonna have a great risk adjuster return um and so no matter what's going on there's always good deals to be had out there thanks aaron last word on sally's effect market oh you're muted aaron all right there i am there you go randy you know i think that maybe you and i on the panel kind of maybe on the similar side of things with this but you know for the most part i see a lot of you know in the i'd say retail kind of smaller when i say retail i mean the retail buyer or consumer in the netherlands space you know the one to ten one to five million dollar private buyer um that doesn't exist on this on this panel um really is is not necessarily always you know in that industrial space looking to place or allocate 25 million or might not be in the data center space um you know they might be looking at sales lease backs in the one to five 10 million dollar range i think a lot of that is going to slow down in certain sectors and that might be you know the controversial casual dining per se again you know smaller credit maybe some chain restaurants do i think quick service will continue to thrive of course you know the pandemic showed it and i think that sale these facts will still occur the quick service restaurant space the sea source space again you know the larger price point deals the data centers the industrial centers life sciences um biomed that type of stuff of course you know that's going to continue to thrive and i can agree with every panelist that uh you know next year should be a banner year um with just a multitude of reasons and a perfect storm being interest rates at historic lows or continued historic lows and and it kind of uh supply constraints it's been existing over the last seven years you know you really didn't have that much development and new build really coming from 2015 to 2020. there's only so much product out there and developers kind of the last three four years have have decided to not dig into the ground and decide to you know increase their costs on a projection of 30 so second gen space and operators who want to access that capital and and deploy it and you know tap on that equity today i have in that property i think you can say all these effect markets should thrive next year thanks um all right we had five questions and we're only probably gonna get to three so i guess we're in crystal ball territory for you know what's people's projections for the next you know three months and 12 months gordon we'll start with you again you mean in terms of volume or in terms of volume in terms of where your competitors in terms of you know kind of where the market evolves into over the next you know short of medium term okay i think in this in the short term right you've you're coming up on you know calendar year end which for many companies is fiscal year end right says as you know folks know that tends to be a driver for decisions um so they can you know go to the market and say hey we're starting the year off with xyz you know we short up our balance sheet we've done this paid down debt um so you've got a big push i mean you know we're fortunate we're still able to close by year end um you know people are focused we'll we'll buy your property and give you your cash before 12 31. um so i think you'll see a big push um certainly next three months because you know then you get the the deals that don't actually get done by 12 31 um because people don't think about it until december 1st or december 15th um and it rolls over um and as andres said i mean i think you're going to it's going to be a banner year next year right i think you're i think with the vaccine we're starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel and um i think folks can say okay you know instead of you know people thought there'd be a vaccine but now you've got sort of a much better idea of when that's going to start coming out right seems it seems to be getting this seems like they'll get fda approval sometime soon um you have a start date i mean look it's complicated to deliver the vaccine to 300 million people right and then there's issues about what temperature do they need to be done and things like that but i think you're you're looking at it and you say okay if we can get through 2021 we're going to be good and so i think you know because it's an alternative form of financing for companies they're gonna say hey let's do the sales back let's have the cash let's make sure we make it through so you're gonna you know i think you'll you'll be you know 25 to 50 larger in 2021 than you had you know last year so do you think i i i get your opinion about the sales back market going being more robust next year do you think the competitive environment becomes more robust as well meaning you have more competitors who are fundraising that you'll be competing against or do you think you're just going to get a greater market share well i mean being better i think we'll just get greater market share but um no i look i do look i like to me i mean this i i've i've never understood why people would want to have own multi-family right or or office you know or multi-tenant stuff i mean when you have a sales pack because i think it's such a great investment people are chasing yield right so i think you're going to see and look over the last decade right this has really become an institutional product that whereas originally it was much more of a retail product so i do think you're going to find more and more investors coming into the space um and you know look we've got a pretty bifurcated market right i mean folks tend to have their niche um and so yeah it'll be some more competition bu um you know as andres had said you know people want certainty you know brokers want to make sure that they can deliver to their client what they say they're going to do um and so i think you'll see you know people going with with firms that have performed historically in the past um but sure i mean like with any great um any great product you'll have more and more people coming into the field and i think this is a great product i mean it's really withstood the test of time it really delivers a great um a great return steady stable income to investors and um you know provides the liquidity pretty quickly to to owners that are doing sale lease backs um and so yeah i think you'll see more competition both from investors and new firms coming up thanks uh go to brian um you know finish the ball for the next three three to six months yeah and you know i think sentiment is is similar to what gordon mentioned um but just kind of piggybacking off of where he was going you know i think in terms of competitive landscape there will absolutely be more and more groups out there chasing the product that we all chase um i i don't think there's a question that net lease is continuing to grow is more of a common asset class to be to be uh focused on by by more generalist groups um but i think competition will be public companies private companies individuals where do you see the most competition coming from i would say probably just generally institutions um trying to get into the netly space just because of the the secure cash flow and this the durable income that comes from it but where i was going with it is you know back to what andre said earlier and i think gordon echoed it as well you know we're all known commodities here and over the last nine months i haven't seen the fact that we are a known commodity be as important in in years past as we have over the last nine months right um when we're in a competitive bidding process for a deal um the fact that we're a known commodity matters much much more than it did prior to this and i think that continues so while there might be more entrance and and more competition i think in a lot of cases especially in the southeast backspace where it's more nuanced than your your writing leases and um you're originating originating the deal entirely um it's going to take a known commodity in order to take it down so those those new entrants might be there but uh you know i see that see them as more of noise than anything um when when push comes to shove you know i think as a broker as as a as a seller as an operator when you're looking for a partner in a deal like this especially right now um it's gonna be of the utmost importance to go with uh to go with the known commodities so um you know i think we'll all benefit from that as we head into 2021 and we see this volume continue to grow um even if there are new entrants um in the background thanks andreas to you uh kind of what do you think is is you know the engine where's the where's the industry headed the next few months no i would echo you know many of the sentiments uh that my competitors have shared i mean i mean if if you think about what's happened in some multi-family if you think about what's happening some retail in some office you know there had been capital flows for the last you know it's going insane it's gone from a retail more of a retail product to more of an institutional product that's been a trend that's been taking place for over five years this has accelerated that i mean i think people see the virtues and at least they see the resiliency of the product in the face of an event like we've all just gone through and you know i'm seeing it on deals where i'm i'm hearing that there are competitors who i never would have expected uh to be in my in my sandbox coming in and so i think you have capital flows from you know other asset classes multi-family office uh retail but i think you also have people just seeing the virtues of net lease as a product class uh generally i mean i started my career in investment banking i was at credit suisse in a fixed income seat looking at you know originating high yield debt for um you know some investment-grade companies and if i think about that the the you know the risk return on that on on you know high-yield paper versus what we do in light of how much you know monetary stimulus has been has been pumped into the economy i mean no one's really talking about inflation but if inflation does does pop up um it was mentioned earlier that you know the fed has moved its target to to allow um inflation to run a little hotter over the two percent target i mean if inflation does come back at least with you know built-in escalators whether they're fixed or or cpi index provides um you know i think a much safer risk return for fixed income profile investment than just straight debt and i think a lot of people are seeing that um and you know and real estate has other characteristics you know you can leverage there's other things about it that help up the return profile and so uh i'm optimistic that these capital flows will help my cost of capital and help me be competitive but but i'm also realistic and knowing that um it's not going to get easier and i think that uh there's gonna be a you know it's gonna be a bit of a knife fight for deals over the next 12 to 18 months aaron since you're uh like me more focused on the retail part of the market any different perspective no uh you know hot it's gonna stay hot yeah i think that you'll appreciate this uh randy and i think a lot of the uh my colleagues and peers on the panel can appreciate as well but you know when you look at the kind of trajectory of the last 10 15 years and the cycles you know you saw really you know 8009 2010 kind of you're out of it you're starting to coast up 11 15 11 13 14 15 really hot years from the hottest cyclical you know just we're at the top of it 1718 a lot of the people on the panel themselves couldn't buy because it was just in excess of what they wanted to because of how hot the market was and i think that it's very very clear to say 1819 you know it was kind of a screeching slow halt 20 just kind of stopped for a lot of people so i i think that 21 22 we're going to kind of go up and i just kind of see it as being the start of again a bottom or a low and you know we're gonna ride this wave who knows got willing uh you know eight to ten years and then i can retire so when you say go up next year and it's gonna remain hot do you still think it's gonna stay bifurcated where you know obviously the walmarts and the chick-fil-a are in huge demand but you know obviously you can't give away a health club you still that continue or the secondary products are rising as well i think the cap rates are gonna stay historically low interest rates are incredibly low where can you people are starting to become more and more educated about netflix as an investment as a strategy where can you go out you know i say to people you know who are interested in real estate most people don't get into real estate for a six seven eight percent return they get into real estate to take risks so in our space ever on this panel and everyone here for that matter in the netherlands industry to take little to no risks with jpm or you know whatever organization who is your tenant you know and you're getting that three four five percent that's a great risk when when interest rates are at two percent two and three quarters three percent so then you have the bump so bottom line is i think to to get back to your point randy yes i think it will be a bifurcated nightmare i think there'll be a lot of buyers in this space and i think people will come from as brian said office industrial multi-family retail shopping center developers and owners and they'll all be looking for something more passive and something they can just kind of worry less about where their income is coming from again i want to thank everybody else for at the end of the end of the panel thank real estate journals for hosting us and uh appreciate all the people who participated thanks again thank you thanks randy appreciate it thanks guys