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Market Mayhem Coming? Here Are the Signs... -- with David Moadel hey everybody welcome to looking at the markets with David Modell today was market insanity I've got a bunch of charts to show you and possibly some actionable ideas for your investing outlook and I just want to let you know if you would like some help putting together an investing or trading plan because you really want to have a plan otherwise you really don't know where you're going or what you're doing you can contact me by email at David Modell at gmail.com also I've got a bunch of free financial reports in the description below this video click on those links check him out today it was quite a day S&P 500 down almost two percent after yesterday being up it was a big update the market likes what Jerome Powell the Fed chair had to say and yet now it's realizing oh wait a minute yeah he's not going to be raising interest rates anytime soon but he also mentioned that the economic outlook is slow it's not good so in other words yeah we're kind of waking up with a hangover today from yesterday's euphoria and justifiably so in my opinion if you think the ESPY did poorly the Nasdaq down two and a half percent the Russell the small-caps down three point six two percent just getting crushed today crude oil down gold up silver flat interesting I'm bullish on both of those though let's take a look at the ten-year bond just got crushed today down to two point four five five percent for anybody who's thinking about investing in bonds what are you gonna get I mean once you take out inflation you know you factoring it because inflation reduces the value of your investment and so two point four five five percent yield per year after inflation you're not even getting much of anything at all the VIX the volatility index up 21% almost in one day and let's take a look at Bitcoin versus the US dollar almost exactly at four thousand right now it's really holding the line at four thousand which I think could be a good sign it's been basing for a while now hopefully it won't take another leg lower like it did from the 6,000 dollar level to the 3100 dollar level hopefully this will not just be another leg down and perhaps this could be exactly what we need in the Bitcoin space right now let's take a look at some news items I've got a bunch of mind-blowing charts coming ahead so hang on here all right the US budget deficit hit a record 234 billion dollars not looking good let's look at some charts for that one there's the chart and there it is look how far down we are it hasn't been this bad for a year since the recession area really recession era really uh my goodness not good not good at all let's break it down for the first four months of this fiscal year interest payments just the interest payments not even the debt the interest payments on the u.s. national debt hit twenty-two hundred twenty-one billion dollars that's 19 billion dollars or nine percent more than in the same period last year the interest on the US public debt is on track to reach a record 591 billion almost 600 billion dollars this fiscal year more than the entire budget deficit of the fiscal year 2014 or 2015 and it equates to almost three percent of the estimated gross domestic product the highest percentage since 2011 we are swimming in debt just the interest payments are horrendous this is where your tax dollars are going by the way in case you're wondering let's take a look at what all let's see what this all looks like here's another look at the US federal budget deficit twelve month total and billions way up here not looking good let's look at let's look at the interest payments alone federal government expenditures in terms of interest payments and billions up up and away this is a multi-decade chart going all the way back to the beginning 1990 and it's just going up and up and up we're paying billions of dollars just in interest payments not good not good not good all right let's see what else is going on is there anything happy in this news maybe at the end but this part isn't so happy the 3-month vs. the 10-year Treasury note yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2007 right before the Great Recession this is a major recessionary indicator when yield curves invert like this one it has done for the first time since right before the recession that often times in fact pretty consistently indicates that a recessions coming let's take a look here's the US ten yield and down down down okay as we saw before this one says 2.49 but let's see what the latest reading on it is I think it was two point four five five if my memory is correct there it is two point four five five so it's even worse than what we're seeing on the chart all right it's actually lower than this below it's below that line here's the spread we just talked about the three month versus the ten-year the curve has inverted and there it is it's below zero that's it's not even a flattening anymore it is decisively it broke below it that is a definite recessionary indicator first time since 2007 and here's a chart showing what happens when these kinds of yield curves invert when they go below the zero level so the blue lines is a three-month 10-year yield versus the tenth you know the three-month versus the ten-year which we were just talking about we can see so this isn't even totally accurate sacktual e below this all right it's below that decisively below that zero line now today this is charts a little bit old but it shows what happens every single time it goes below that line recession happened but it happened before the 1990 recession happened before the 2001 dot-com bust bubble bust recession and right before as we said in 2007 right before the great recession of 2008-2009 the two-year versus the 10-year according to this chart same thing every time it dips below that line there that zero line it's called not a flattening but an aversion happens right before recessions here's the 2 and the 10 again this is a little bit old shows it approaching it but again every time it dips below the line the gray bars represent recessions dips below right afterwards recession dips below recession dips below recession recession recession this is actually going back to the 70s 1970s early 80s and so on so this this one takes it back even further and look how consistent it is and we're there now so is there any happy news any good news well this is all good news if you are into gold silver that kind of thing I'll show you a couple of good news/bad news types of things Russia added another million ounces or 31.1 tons to their gold reserves in February according to the latest data that they've released Russia's gold reserves now over 2000 times the fifth largest gold reserves in the world the Central Bank of Russia buys all of Russian domestic gold production and Russia is viewing gold bullion as a quote 100% guarantee from legal and political risks you know I don't necessarily believe in 100% guarantees of anything in this world but I do believe that precious metals are a pretty good shield against these types of legal and political risks as they say let's take a look at what that what that looks like in the chart here look at that huge gold buying here this is the month-on-month change they added a million ounces as we just discussed and it's just huge up to looks like the 70 million troy ounces range there okay big bar here as well in terms of gold buying in the 1 million ounce range here okay so that's gold let's talk about silver there was a major drop in US silver production in 2018 compared to the previous years so if you're into silver this could be bad news for the silver community or good news if you're an investor possibly because if you're an investor you might actually look forward to shortages because that could certainly increase the the price of gold versus the US dollar and other currencies US domestic annual silver production going all the way back to 2000 up to 2018 the latest data and here it is this is it it's down u.s. silver production is down pretty consistently you can draw a trendline here if you wanted to in your mind okay look how I mean we're talking way way way below less than half of what it was in the year 2000 at the turn of the century the turn of the millennium sixty three point seven million ounces US silver production down to less than thirty that's less than half of that way way way down again you know not necessarily great or it could be great if you're an investor and that sort of thing if you're thinking about accumulating silver you can get the physical or or you can you know you might consider mining stocks as well that's can be a great way if you choose carefully to get some magnification or leverage on your silver industry investments and and gold as well you can approach gold buying you know why is Russia buying so much gold do they know something we don't China buying a lot of gold other countries buying a lot of gold central banks why what do they know that maybe we don't do they see something coming you know socio-political economic turbulence coming possibly and this could be a crisis hedge as well as silver my name is David Modell and I've brought you the facts today am I trying to scare you not really but I'm trying to keep you alerted and you know if you like this video if you want me to keep bringing these kinds of reports to you then please give me a thumbs up on YouTube on the video and subscribe to my channel if you haven't done that already hit that notification bell so you can get alerted whenever I put out new updates and videos like this one and leave a comment what are you investing in right now in the comments section below the video and speaking of the below the video if you want to contact me I'll put my email address there David Modell at gmail.com if you're interested in coaching for your trading or investing and I also have some free reports financial reports you can download below this video in the text description as well thank you so much I appreciate it I'll talk to you again soon