Sign North Carolina Banking Claim Now

Industry sign banking north carolina claim now

so today i really wanted to walk you through some updates in the labor market data particularly as a result of covet 19 looking at unemployment looking at wages and looking at the state of the economy as a whole so let's start with the unemployment insurance claims dashboard looking at who is still unemployed who's collecting unemployment and compare that to the state from mecklenburg county to the state and looking at november the most current data back compared to early on in the pandemic so if you look here in in november you can see across the entire state of north carolina there were 47 000 new claims in november and there were 86 000 continued claims so just over 130 000 claims statewide and if you look at that you can also see just about half of all of those claims are a result of 19 however you'll notice that that percentage it's slightly lower on those initial claims than it is on those continued claims and if we zoom into mecklenburg county here we look at what does that mean for mecklenburg county again that's that's all relatively tracking you'll see just about half of all claims again are coveted related with the continued claims having a higher percentage of coveted related claims and we had about 16 000 people in mecklenburg county that collected unemployment in the month of november and so if you if you look at that as a percentage what that accounts to is that's roughly four percent of mecklenburg county is the insured unemployment rate that's compared to a roughly 6.5 percent overall unemployment rate so that suggests again that about 60 percent of those that are currently unemployed are still collecting unemployment benefits but what i really want to do now is zoom into some of the the demographic data and more detail about mecklenburg county so here what i've got down at the bottom it's mecklenburg county specific data for new initial claims in november and again what you'll see is is uh just a slight majority of claims were submitted by female claimants continues to be 25 to 34 year olds are submitting the most claims of of any age group but the the other concerning thing here is we still see a large percentage of claims being submitted by black claimant so again strong disproportionality in the claim data and just to remind you i'll go ahead and flip back to some early data in mecklenburg county so if we go back to march so now we're looking at march in mecklenburg county you'll see only 35 percent of claims were submitted by black claimants back in march and so we've seen that disturbing trend as as more people have returned to work really since july we've seen upwards of 50 percent of all claims being submitted by black claimants in mecklenburg county so it's really suggesting that there there's some strong disproportionality in who is actually returning to work and who's continuing to have to collect unemployment and unable to return to work and so we again we've seen that trend pretty consistently i'll show you month by month really since july it's been over 50 for black climates in mecklenburg county and if you if you look at this too i'll go ahead and look at industry here i'm going to switch over to continued claims the data gets a little bit better when you go to continued claims just in terms of reliability of the industry data and so if we look at continued claims you'll see the the top industry that's now filing for unemployment workers are collecting coming from the trade transportation utilities industry and you'll see as i hover over here some example jobs auto repair furniture stores clothing stores wholesale passengers and freight transportation and this is now the top job the top industry that's filing for unemployment if you remember back early on in the pandemic again i'll switch back to say april here that was not the case i mean it trade transportation utilities has been a a big industry but it was leisure and hospitality was far and away the the top industry that was impacted early on in the pandemic and so what we're seeing now is we're seeing that begin to shift at that continued impact for trade transportation utilities again they've been relatively one of the hardest hit industries throughout the pandemic but more more so now than at previous points in time and and again professional business services you could see that there as well where they were they were up in the the top few industries previously but now now number two again representing an outsized proportion of claimants so we're seeing that begin to shift as the leisure and hospitality industry has been able to recover more quickly than professional business services or the trade transportation utilities industry and so now what i want to do is is go into the charlotte region covet 19 dashboard so again this is a joint project at the charlotte regional research collaborative this isn't just charlotte works we're also working with the city of charlotte the charlotte regional visitors authority the federal reserve bank of richmond and the charlotte regional business alliance and you can access this full dashboard either by going to our website charlotteworks.com status and clicking on the link over on the right hand side the regional dashboard or by going to the charlotte regional business alliance's website but i'm just going to pull out a few things here you can see the entire table of contents over here on the right hand side but i really just want to focus on on the consumer expenditures to start and so if we look at consumer expenditures for mecklenburg county again tracking over time you'll see that that steep decline early on in the pandemic but we've seen some fairly steady recovery in consumer expenditures really since since about the summer we've seen that fairly consistent and so if you compare some of the activity over the past three months or the past quarter or so to pretty pandemic what you can see is is we're pretty much recovered really about 90 to 95 percent of where we were pre pandemic in terms of consumer expenditure we've seen that recovery so again something to keep an eye on but we've seen most of that recovery what i would like to focus on though is how that varies by industry and so what i've got here is is you're looking at the arts entertainment and recreation industry and you can see this industry aside from a a spike in in the middle of summer around when some of those restrictions were initially lifted uh pretty pretty consistently depressed it's roughly 30 to 40 percent lower than where it was pre-pandemic and that is in in contrast to if we we switch over to look at another industry here let's look at uh grocery stores so you can see there there was obviously this this outlier of this initial spike as a result when the the first restrictions came about of people stocking up so kind of ignoring this little outlier here what you're actually seeing is again you're seeing about a uh about a 10 to 15 percent increase in grocery store expenditures as compared to free pandemic so actually an industry that's that's benefited fairly well from the pandemic but let's switch over to transportation this is another industry we talked about the unemployment claims coming from this industry so let's really zoom in at the expenditures in this industry and you can see pretty well that again that that initial decline there was some early recovery right before really the pandemic hit so there was actually some some decline going on really early on in the pandemic perhaps due to covet cases in other states and other communities being felt here in the local market and then that that decline has just gotten really pronounced in april and the recovery has been very slow while it is on a general upward trend you can see going from about uh 70 percent down in in may well now we're looking at about 50 down in january so that recovery has been there but it's been much slower slower in this industry and so the the other thing i'd like to focus on here is let's just look at the the job postings here and so here you can see the again the job posting trends over time starting in in january going through december of 2020 again you're seeing that mostly recovered but not completely recovered and so now what i wanted to focus on was with some new data around a a projection we had actually made back in the covet 19 video that was released a couple of weeks ago and so i'll put a link to that if you want to check that out in its entirety but for our purposes now really though the point that i want to focus on is that projection about the increasing real wages over time as a result of a pandemic that the research had suggested and again remembering we we did start to see that taking place in the the numbers in 2020 but the most recent weekly earnings report that we got showed that comparing the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020 there was a five percent increase in wages during that that time period and if we zoom in to look at some of the the demographic data here you'll see again it went from 936 to 984 in terms of absolute dollars between 19 2019 and 2020 and again if you adjust that for inflation in terms of real dollars that is still representing an increase but if we zoom in i want to call out a a couple of demographics where there's actually a decrease in real wages and the first one here is men aged 16 to 24. again it's only a dollar but you'll see that there is actually a decrease in their their real wages between 2019 and 2020. and so comparatively if you look at women aged 16 to 24 they that went up by nine dollars so again that that actual the gender pay gap for that age demographic is narrowing by 10 there if you compare uh men and women over the age of 25 you'll see men went up in terms of real wages by 13 and women went up in terms of real wages by 17. so while that pay gap is still narrowing for older workers it's at a much narrower rate four dollars versus ten dollars and then the other demographic that i want to call out in terms of having their real wages remain steady and actually go down slightly is the hispanic or latino or latinx men had their real wages again go down by by a dollar and so we're seeing again that that pay gap is actually shrinking because um latino women had their their pay increase by about 17 as well so the other the other important things that i would point out here is again if you just look at the pay disparity between white workers and black or african american workers again that's less than 80 cents on the dollar for the the fourth quarter of 2020 so again some pretty significant pay disparities still there and continuing to persist and so the last thing i want to share with you is the weekly unemployment claims update from the department of labor so again this is current through the week ending january 16th as compared to the data i showed you earlier that was only current through november the difference here is is while the state is more current it can only be drilled down to a state level i can't get down to that county level with the weekly updates from the department of labor but again looking at looking at that data we see that initial claims last week nationally were 900 000 which did represent a slight decrease from the previous week however that is still higher than our four-week moving average so it's still a bit unclear as to what direction those claims are heading what's that trend line or were the last couple weeks a blip and we're moving back down or is it still generally increasing we'll have to wait a little bit to see that and so now what i really want to zoom in on is is a couple of different things in north carolina so let's start by by looking at regular unemployment claims in north carolina for this past week so if we look at just regular unemployment you'll see that was down about three thousand in north 3000 claims comparing contrasting the past two weeks in north carolina but now let's let's move on to the additional types of unemployment that were provided by federal legislation to respond to the pandemic the first is the the pua and so again the pua is unemployment that's being extended to individuals that aren't eligible through regular unemployment means and you can see that was down just slightly so so again think about it as those those 1099 workers those independent contractors that they would generally be under this pua eligibility you're seeing that's down as well but if we look at the last type of unemployment that was was added by that legislation the peuc this is that additional 13 weeks so after you've exhausted your regular unemployment benefits this is where that peuc comes into play and if you look at north carolina you will actually see an increase of 14 000 people taking advantage of this legislation so again that starts to suggest that maybe the the decrease we're seeing in some of the regular unemployment claims or as people are shifting to this peuc and relying on this for eligibility and and then the last thing i note here as a result of this report is again just the the comments from the state so if we look at north carolina again we overall we had an increase and the comment is again layoffs in the manufacturing and construction industries so again we're starting to see that see that track with what we were we're seeing in the industry data earlier on but it's it's something to keep an eye on and so that's all i have for you today but i appreciate you taking the time to go through this with me