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[Music] oh [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] w [Music] [Applause] [Music] dude that new intro song gets me jazzed it's I was just thinking about intro songs we got to do the instrumental to not like us Kendrick Lamar like that's got to be our new intro song yeah because that's how hard we go on the Monday market update they not like us all of yeah all of our haters all of our Monday market update competitors on other days you know they're not like us Matt y they're not like us uh well spoiler alert I am joined here today by Matt the mortgage guy gu uh Welcome Matt did you get your coffee uh during the during the countdown I did I got my coffee matth morgage guy Yeti uh in fact so uh I'm I'm ready to ready to roll I got my bulletproof whatever it is butter MCT oil in there like Monday is gonna just it's gonna hit it's not like it's not like us it's not ready for us so um and I'm Sean great fine here Vice Pro vice president of product strategy at you morgage and this is the Monday market update the first one second one of the uh of Q3 here of the second half of the year and I think there's going to be some big shakeups in uh you know a lot of the things that we're typically reporting on um at over the over the course of the year it's been very steady since say February or March but uh you know things are are set to shake up before we get to um the the market and the numbers and stuff like that uh Mr Mr G what what did you how did you spend your fourth did you fourth uh I spent with with family in the neighborhood a buddy of mine kind of funny quick Story the house that I rented in college 20 years ago he bought it three or four months ago in the neighborhood I I live in um and so he threw a party there so it was like nostalgic being back at that house and then their whole Court kind of came out contributed may or may not have had some fireworks that were not legal in California but I I I'm so afraid of prosecution that I posted on Instagram some of these um things I wasn't the one lighting them um there you go you're just a Arc I was I was there um so so uh fun little neighborhood Fourth of July it was it was good man it was pretty chill it was it was interesting because it was on a Thursday so I came back to work on Friday half the day it felt like a Monday I was scheduling follow-ups um for Tuesday realizing it was Friday and not Monday it was uh it was interesting but uh how about you how was your fourth my man uh my fourth is great so my uh there there's a big road race like a a running Road Race here in in Atlanta every July 4th I think it's like the biggest in the world or something uh the Peach Tree Road Race that my dad did for 37 consecutive years like July 4th was like his day and he passed away three years ago so since then I've been running that race every uh every July 4th just to see if I can get to 37 uh as as well and just kind of do it in his honor but I really wanted to set a personal best uh 10K time um it's such it's a very hilly course it was so hot it was so humid there's a billion people out there that you have to dodge and I was off my personal best Pace by like 40 I think 41 seconds or something like that so I just I just missed it by 41 seconds unfortunately however I took the sense of disappointment anger Vengeance with me this morning and went to my favorite Trail along the chattah huchi river and crushed crushed my my PR by three minutes this morning wow no crowd no race director no hydration you know no snacks no music just you out in the wild just running just running as fast as I could I can't really feel my right calf right now you'll heal man you're you're you're still young that's cool man running running the race and pops's honor I love just getting out and running I do it's good for you it is it's it's kind of miserable this time of year but most of the time it's fine so how how hot is it in Atlanta it's only like 114 in Sacramento yeah but it's different it's like it's like 93 94 but it's typically 93 94% humidity all day every day it live in Atlanta I would never live there you you if I you gave me a million dollar mansion for free and said move out I and and and not because Atlanta's not a beautiful place Sean I'm not knocking you fine you're not invited we got too many people we're trying to kick people out I'm a I'm a sweater I sweat dude so if I was if I was in Atlanta I'd have to shower six times a day it wouldn't work for me I think I think yeah I'm with you it's it's awful any let's get to let's get to the MonDay market up this has been the Monday buddies update so far uh it's time to get to the MonDay market update some big numbers came in last week uh and we'll go over those now the biggest one that came in was the um unemployment rate is now gone up to 4.1% uh the jobs numbers were a lot lower than they had been that pre you remember last month like 272,000 jobs created some insane number um obviously not really reflected by people's experience of the job market um but you know the the numbers I I don't those were the numbers whatever whatever the polling and sampling uh method is those are the numbers numbers a lot lower this month at 200,000 right around where experts expected it unemployment rate inched up to 4.1% that's some of the leading indicators that the FED is looking at when trying to make decisions about what they're going to do with rates the markets uh responded favorably uh last week on Friday kind of it whenever these numbers come out on a Friday between the 4th of July and um and like like whenever it's between a holiday and the weekend and it's a Friday it's like very very limited trading on Wall Street the lazy bums uh so we should see more of that shake out as the uh as the the market kind of ingests that today it was pretty good news though that 10 years still in the 4. tws and we've seen um interest rates inch down into like the high eights low sevens what's your what's your what's your feeling like ear to the ground what's your feeling on on rates do they feel like yeah I think today we got a little bit of of a betterment but it's it seems to be like per is just kind of like the the sticky line that we keep bouncing around um and so for a lot of people it's better environment like you you'd rather have just stability sure around seven than like up to seven and a half down to 675 which those swings don't happen overnight but um every once in a while every once in a while they do yeah and and and without looking at a chart like it feels like in the most recent times rates have just been kind of flat which is better people get pre-approved they're looking they take a break they're back in six weeks they find a house they like like home home buying doesn't happen in the course of one or two weeks and so when you look six months or you know three months out like if if things change a lot it it it's harder to go out there and home shop my opinions so cheers to flat rates yeah I agree I agree I think I think people people are are creatures of being used to things rather than like you know that rather than like whatever some sort of nominal rate that they wish they had uh is but you know obviously lower better uh flat just as good in most cases uh we uh we do have CPI and PPI coming up this week CPI is the core uh is is the headline inflation metric that the FED uses when addressing inflation which is the kind of key reason they exist is to make manage the money supply and the cost of money so that prices don't rise or fall too quickly and sort of as a result of that the economy doesn't overheat or you know under heat too to too much um they so CPI is coming out on Thursday PPI uh the producers price index how much cost a a producer to produce something as opposed to a consumer to buy something that comes out on Friday so we've had we've had good pce numbers that's another measure of inflation that came out two weeks ago we've had good jobs numbers good meaning bad have you ever listened to this do you did you ever listen to the band Modest Mouse no I never heard of Modest Mouse yeah there may be a bit after your time um oh you call me old uh no they were just like very very weird um they had they had they had an album called good news for people who like bad news and so I always think of that whenever I think of like the the employment numbers is like we want unemployment to go up because that's a sign that inflation is cooling down because the cost of money is getting more expensive so it really truly is good news for people who like bad news because it means people are losing their jobs and people are people like I want better mortgage rates at any cost if the E has to collapse and everyone else got to lose their job for that to happen so be it give me 4% yeah yeah yeah I mean the reason we got such good mortgage rates during Co was because like it was you know this pandemic was sweeping the world people were not able to leave their houses people losing jobs you know it was great and people like yay I love this yay 2.5% H so so anyway that being said CPI comes out Thursday PPI on Friday not much changed in terms of what Traders are predicting we use this tool called the CME fed watch tool really cool you can Google it doesn't cost any money literally I just Google CME fed watch tool every Monday morning and pull this up um it's the first result and this shows the chances the probability that Traders think there will be a an easing no change or hike in these various fed meetings all the way out to like a year plus from now uh July 31st is our next meeting so that means there's going to be a what the FED version of this in the first Monday of um August man how these months do fly fly by fly by so this shows uh Traders think there's a 6.7% chance of there being a rate reduction I you would you it's not going to happen um this these people are correct the 93.3% and I usually side with a little guy but I'm almost never as optimistic as the people on the left side of this chart um and then you see a pretty high conviction that there will be a reduction and this is going up you know it's up 60% of people one week ago thought that there would be a reduction in September now 70.8% of people now these people everybody on this this chart is famously wrong since I've started reviewing it it's famously optimistic um but I could see this being being the case so yeah I mean we have we have August off right so it's you know we've got a lot of time between now and that there's a lot of time that's true member meeting so a lot of time for new data to come in but also the FED really likes to Telegraph what's going to happen they don't like these big swings where they come out and it's a surprise they don't do surprises anymore we always know going into the meeting what the result is going to be although this one might be one of the few times where there's like will they want 5050 shot yeah dude that would be crazy definitely definitely gonna be a volatile day in the stock market and the rate Market um but they'll they'll really try and Telegraph it as much as possible without like giving the whole thing away uh when you do see them initially Telegraph the easing there's going to be a pretty this is my guess we've talked about this before there's gonna be a pretty significant downwards in the 10e I bet the first time Powell who testifies in front of Congress um or presents testimony I guess that's testifying um I think either today let's see or tomorrow tomorrow um to the to the Senate uh when he does let on that it that he thinks that there's going to be an upcoming reduction in the upcoming meeting I think we see the 10e dip below 3% I mean not below 3 perc below 4 perc into the threes what is it like 42 right now 429 yeah okay yeah I could see that yeah so uh if if you if you purchase a home at at 7.25 7.5 7.75 % uh if you use Matt the mortgage guy gu and you got yourself a one one about a year or a one zero buy down about a year ago and your your rates set to uh to adjust like it might it might actually be time to uh to look into that the first of hopefully uh a long slope down in your mortgage rate through refinance that's today's hot tip get with a a a mortgage broker some of you like and Trust that's just going to give you the break even analysis here's what You're Gonna Save here's what it's going to cost here's how many months it's gonna take to recoup that green light yellow light red light keep it simple exactly just just pick pick a rate and then wait and get get weekly or monthly or whatever updates from from that loan officer uh the rates are really good at you mortgage right now and Matt G is one of our best loan officers so uh Pro tip use him but uh if he's not licensed in your state find somebody else at you morgage or convince him to get licensed in your state you'll see that there is a we're just going to fly through these next two 50% CH well total uh 75% chance of an easing from where we're at right now uh during the November meeting 50% of people think that it's just still going to be just the one reduction 22% of people think there's going to be um two reductions and then 1.7% of people think there will have been three so either a double reduction one of the months which is a legal move or that the July one that September one and November one all get the 25 bip reductions or 25 basis point 0.25% reduction um yeah pretty uh pretty pretty wild um yeah I think quick shout out to my buddy Mike Zuber he thinks that they're gonna wait longer than they need to and then hit him with a 50 basis points all at once d a double a double bubble yeah so he's like you know maybe wait no September like a lot of people expect make sure that we really are feeling good about inflation and then November December hit him with 50 that would be crazy could be that would be crazy I love I love that I love that I think that's a good shout I love that call I don't I don't necessarily think that's gonna happen but I I love chaos so I hope they do it yeah it'll be fun um and finally looking into December you do have some forers here so maybe that's two doubles you know two doubles that's not gonna happen and I'm I'm just crazy as they come and I'm not that crazy well look at this nobody thinks there will not be nobody thinks there will be no change I mean 3.4% of people do that to me is like oh we're like pretty feeling pretty confident about this are we boys and girls like I just think I think I think this whole everybody's over optimistic about this thing I think will'll end the year I think probably right here with it with two but I think it's just as likely that there's just one so you the one Camp last week bro you're joining me in the two Camp I know I see these numbers and I'm like I they are we got you we got you we got Grapevine do they not they I don't no I'm sticking with one I'm hoping I'm hoping for one Higher longer baby oh I think I just hit my finger against my desk and sprained my finger see this desk life man this is dangerous people don't know you you uh you should have stayed a poker dealer that would never happen um the the tables are padded is the reason I say that so that my friends is the numbers uh Maddie tell us about what you've been reading in the news and tell us about why we should or shouldn't trust the news all right if you're ready for a little bit of a passionate mtmg here it comes the news can be so off Bas I was going to use a harsher word but I'm just going to say off base thank you they have no idea what's going on about a subject and they talk about it anyway and when they do talk about it they're so desperate for clicks that they create uh you know more drama than is truly there so I'm going to read you a couple headlines Sean CNN thousands of homeowners are about to get slammed and this is talking about adjustable rate mortgages the hill whoever they are possible mortgage crisis looms for Millions they're all us they're all using the same thing about 1.7 million homes were bought in 2019 using adjustable rate mortgages how wait how many 1.7 million I in 2019 I'm almost sure that that is a bad stat um here's a couple things I will in 2019 I mean I could see that being the one year where where arms were kind of like in the money you know like pre2 obviously once 2020 hit nobody was doing it nobody's done this here's the thing here's the thing if you went into an arm at four and a quarter in 2019 what do you think you did in 20 and 21 refinance you big dummy so so so maybe 70% of these refinanced into a fixed 30-year 2.75% 2.625% um whatever the case like to think that there's a lot of arm that are going to come due and and and adjust is just wrong like there's no way that I talk to as many people as I talk to other loan Originators like I I you know personally wrote 400 million in mortgages roughly in the last five years I wrote one arm and I've got enough you know friends in the business where like I I probably know people you know collectively they wrote like hundreds of billions and like wm's a good example too they're the largest wholesale ler in the country so they have data on the last I don't know trillion they've probably wrote a trillion in since 2019 no way think their big years Sean were 245 billion and they like 20 21 they wrote a half a trilly they wrote 500 billion that's so crazy so with I I helped I helped yeah me too I snuck in about 30 Mill couple hundred mlie um so this just this stuff's not true this is Doom and I fraking it drives me crazy because here's what it does here's what you should listen to as a consumer when you read a uh a post like this 1.7 million arms were written these are going to come due in 24 people are going to foreclose housing crash price are going to come down then you sit and you wait and you hope that prices come down the reality is there's a housing shortage it's here it's not going away there's no it's like say those people did like fault I mean their houses are worth double what they paid for them it's not going to be one of those situations like a huge short sale it's like they bought this house for $300,000 it's worth $600,000 they're not going to default they're just gonna move yeah they're gonna sell it move go into a higher payment but still you know have 250 Grand in equity but the thing that that really upsets me the most of all of it Sean is it articles like this make people stand still they give people un fear uncertainty and doubt and then they wait for 3 years and then they look back and they gooh shoot that was just an article written to get clicks here I am three years later home prices are the same or higher I'm in a worse position than I was had I had bought had I listened to good information that's like hey I'm not telling you go out there and buy anything get yourself pre-approved find out what is a comfortable payment for you but over time real estate's going to appreciate there's no data there's no smart people that are putting together data shows there's going to be any significant housing crash and I would love for it to happen Sean I'd love to buy houses at a discount I'd love for my clients to be able to get houses cheaper it's just not going to happen like supply and demand is pretty simple even for a dummy like me yeah and we went over the inventory situation you know last last week and we looked at like oh inventory is going up when you look at like just the one-ear view you're like oh my God it's gone up 40% then you zoom out to like the five or 10 year View and it's like all the all 10 years and then it's gone up like one inch so yeah I I even if all these houses somehow came on the market and like it's not it's not like when you have I think what people miss about like housing crises is that they happen when there is people who cannot make payments and when there's no equity available in those houses and it's like oh oh you can't afford this house anymore but you you have you know $250,000 in equity then all right you could just sell it you could start renting or you know buy a cheaper house or whatever so uh I love this question that you just answered in the comments I'll uh I'll read it out for you we can we can talk about it for a second too H Dave says when do mortgage lenders update their rates at the beginning or end of the business day or during the business day or does it fluctuate during the day as interest rates do great great question phenomenal question yeah and and I answered it in the comments uh most lenders they come out with their their rates um in the morning and so about 10:00 a.m. eastern typically 11 right yeah and back in the olden days it was rate sheets now it's all you know digital where I could log in I could check multiple lenders at the same time um but to your point Dave rates change and they can change multiple times per day some days there's no change other days there's a midday repic they call it it could be for the better it could be for the worse but in volatile markets where there's news happening that affects mortgage rates all the time there could be a a change where we as lenders will get alerts repriced alert rates got worse by 40 basis points because of you know the economic news we got or you know on some days where there's a bunch of news that's helpful for mortgage bonds rates betterment 25 basis points and then yeah yeah I like in your example that it it didn't get as better as it got worse which also reflects reality so I was like when it gets worse they're like it's way worse when it gets better they're like we gave you a little bit better I I just did that Sean like it's been it's been planted like it's 100% true better give you 25 like gosh man I'm glad you caught that too that that that proves that you've been in the trenches do you remember in 2020 and 2021 where you would get like I mean I I had to like create a whole separate folder in my inbox because usually you just get like one notification per day like hey we put out rates uh but like man 2020 20121 there were some days where we got I must have gotten five to seven reprices from just one lender it was crazy yeah it was and with the amount of volume a lot of lenders were doing it was it was wild crazy story of mine I had over 30 refinances floating and one of the reasons I I hate to float nowadays is the market got worse by over a 100 basis points so for most people it's about a quarter in rate where I could have got him 2.625 it went up to 2.875 good news is I ate it no way took a very discounted comp on 30 plus deals um but saved my reputation because I told people listen this was on me I should have locked you in I didn't um therefore you get the 2.625 I'm gonna eat it all I ask in return is that you refer me all your family and friends so if you're out there and I took a big like commission cut just to keep my word and give you the rate I promised send me your family and your friends keep them coming great morgage broker.com oh man I love that yeah I uh I my my formative days were filled with similar um you know mistakes and then sort of backpedaling and trying to trying to do whatever I could to make sure that my decision didn't affect uh my clients negatively I uh been been there a million times and again it never really like corrects the opposite direction you're not like I'll make it up later that would require charge charging the next person double I'm forever sticking to if you like it lock it like there there's no good reason to gamble we're gonna look at the rate sheet we're gonna figure out what you like and we're gonna lock it I have the gra fine corollary to that which is if you don't like it lock it that's like yeah yeah just lock it just lock okay yes uh well with that we're going to lock in the rest of our day and this week we're going to get locked in and we are going to crush it you Matt me and every one of our Watchers and listeners out there we really appreciate you taking the time out of of your day great question from Dave vallas uh today uh we would love more questions like that in the future we love shooting the breeze we love peeling back the curtain and like showing you guys how the mortgage sausage is made Matt I hope you have a great day dispelling rumors myths untruths news false claims and uh fighting a good fight I shall have a great week buddy see you guys thanks everyone