Can I Sign Delaware Banking Presentation

Help me with industry sign banking delaware presentation now

okay as you know people with different gifts and talents different interests and things which is obvious because people would come out and I am on her side her feet deep here talks about public policy not a criticism just dissipation and my particular that I love economics and I love data and statistics and you make me you know what sort of puts a value of Statistics well I had a friend in college who was hitchhiking and he got picked up and he got in the car with a guy and he said you know thank you so much for picking me up because you know you always run the risk that you're picking up a serial killer and the driver said what's the odd two serial killers in the same car so this is going to be a tough to talk about the double economy how it release the state finances and then what might be done okay so the starting point is you know white wire economist in resident in economic growth and this is these are the things that relate to the growing per-capita income income per person states that have faster growing income per person have stronger better health outcomes longer later if I can see better mental health outcomes and determine the families they have higher rates of marriage and lower rates of divorce in terms of violence they have lower rates of violent crime and in terms of education they're more likely to be high school graduates and college graduates the states that have growing for company coming miscellaneous you just see stronger business communities a variety of other things that states have growing forgotten income so how does Delaware doing this is a chart that shows per capita income in Delaware ranked against other states and as you can see Delaware got up to a point of the patterns of fifth highest per capita income among all the states and since that time there's been a slow steady gap falling down relevant under face the 21st and you say well how is it being relevant we went to dig characteristics before of states with growing for Catholic them how important that is it also it's a measure of wealth you know see your something's going on in the economy that you're experiencing that kind of a decline in per capita income this is a measure of economic freedom it's put out by the Fraser Institute in Canada and they do economic freedom by country and they'll do all the states in the United States and again you see Delaware reach that level attempt tenth highest state in terms of economic freedom and now the now about 46 to 47 okay an economic freedom for Delaware part of the problem is increase in taxes and the percentage of personal income and you say well our tax rate isn't that bad it's only six point six percent the highest tax rate however that applies at the household income of $60,000 so if you had a $60,000 or more you're paying six point six percent the median income in Delaware is above sixty thousand dollars so more than half of the households in Delaware are now paying that higher tax rate we also have relatively liberal Medicaid laws and high health care costs which shows up for the economic freedom index now if you take the two together you see you take Carly it in other words there is a relationship between economic freedom and per capita income the economic health of the state so it's not it's not just an ephemeral federal thing to look at these different things to constitute the economic freedom in to be innovative ability for to be entrepreneurial and what happens in the state's economy now another way of looking at the Delaware economy these are over a business cycle so the first six point three point one percent is the annual growth rate and employment in Delaware for a business cycle that went through the early to mid-1990s and then from in 1992 about 2004 from Iowa to the no business cycle employment in Delaware grew about 1.3 percent since the the recession in 2007 2008 - the date employment in Delaware is grown at 0.1 percent a year in other word it's hardly hardly moved now we'll below the national average another way of looking at this is output and the kind of Barnes line or yellow line is the annual annual growth rate per quarter in output in the United States if you step off to the right you know you get a shock I feel like I'm blocking the view for people you can see the United States relative to Delaware Delaware's much more volatile and that's that similar of states states there are smaller economies that for volatility but what's notable about Delaware is since 2009 there's been five periods where we've had two quarters in a row or more of negative growth in output below the national average of course below zero these these are called recessions by regional economists so we've had five recessions indulge without put the latest data one outlet take the term of Governor Carney current governor Carney from when he took office through 2019 output in the United States went up nine point four percent in Delaware output would up minus three percent nor did went down you know what what negative so you see raises questions about the dem over economy this is the Philadelphia Federal Reserve produces a leading index for every state in the United States and they produce it monthly and you can see going into the 2007-2008 recession the leading index in Delaware really took a dye which below zero is negative the state it took the state of a lag of six months or so to realize this and react to it in terms of spending but the notable thing is since that time it hasn't been negative until the last six months for six months in a row now the leading index for the devil ricotta me four into the 11 said that's been negative and so this says you know we're going to have it a tough spring out of spring ahead of us and unemployment rate the cat was talking about the unemployment rate in Delbert is going up six months in a row it salad they think so before percent way next month and what I can see when I look at the components of unemployment the cat talked about the big driver is people losing their jobs which would mean businesses are sensing there's a slowdown and they're starting to to get rid of employees now the last slide here is you would expect the governor's that the last two governors have said in order to really support state finances we have to grow the economy well you've seen from the previous slides that the economy has not actually been growing this is a chart that takes total State Delbert general funds spending and adjusts it divided by population so it's per capita and then adjust for inflation and so you would think a state budget that kept pace with population for and with inflation you have a flat line up there you can see the mic goes up and down but that notable thing is in the last three or four years the spending adjusted for inflation is spending per capita has been rising in other words we're out spending our resources we're out of spending population growth and out of spending inflation question is can you keep it off the answer is no and we'll start paying to play for it probably at the end of this fiscal year you just know no state can now spend as population and inflation your revenue base will not allow so what it could be done and the speakers have talked about all these issues the first thing is public education public education reform the National Assessment of Education progress test which all states have to give under the No Child Left Behind Act and the tests Kelly said his tests are in perfect for the last 20 years to serve to the eighth graders in Delaware and tested below proficient in reading and math two-thirds and more than eighty percent of the black eighth graders have tested the low position in reading and math and Delaware and nothing's been done the second and X it's been a real hit on the doubler economy not the least of which young professionals who in good-paying jobs in Delaware with children of school age choose to live up in Chester County in Delaware County Pennsylvania New Castle County experiences for an annual basis a net out-migration of 3 billion dollars of wages that are earned in the county the code taken away to residents and in other parts of the region the second thing which have mentioned Dave mentioned electric costs we have a carbon tax and some other policies as well and that drives our electric rates Delaware's electric rates industrial at the phrase of 16 percent above the nation and 35 percent above North Carolina which is our competitor for new manufacturing sites and then the third thing you have is a health care cost John mentioned the certificate of need program and that it's a barrier to entry we have this with the third highest per capita health care spending in the nation we have the first we're number one and health care and patient spending bike on wheels and you see how how you know what's driving that well the certificate need is a big factor it's a barrier to entry to competition okay will that change that's the final question did address a felony man for Olson who was an economist of course wrote a book called the logical collective action and in there one of the questions he addressed with why did Japan and Germany why did their economies take off so robust ladies 10-15 years after the World War two his conclusion was World War two wiped out all the special interest groups so when you look at these issues in Delaware who are the special with a case of public education you have the Delaware State Education Association they put money into the campaign's of Saint legislators mostly Democrats as well as the National Education Association so you have that interest group that doesn't want to see change even though students are many student servers our actions will change particularly from disadvantaged families in the case of the electricity Dave may have mentioned it a little bit dead rec which oversees the renewable portfolio standard den rec gets at least 17 to 18 million dollars a year in the carbon tax and this is not money to come through the general fund it becomes the den rec and they can spend it at their discretion and then finally with respect to the health care law up in Newcastle County at least you have Christiana Care approaching three billion dollars a year in revenue at least 200 million of that is net and that's accumulated they have accumulated over two billion dollars of reserves they just bought Union Hospital in Elkin Maryland the buying of private practices in Delaware and they love the Health Resources Board and the certificates of the program and maintain that as better than entering all the people in the Health Resources Board are appointed by the governor so if Christiana Care can convince the governor that he should maintain that system the likelihood it will so will Delaware change are we going to get out this Dover that word in it's unlikely primarily because of stretching went to schools I wish I could give you better news than that but at this point I can't so thank you very much [Applause]