Can I Sign Oregon Banking Job Offer

Can i industry sign banking oregon job offer

thank you Steve next up we have we have Bank of America regional market executive Chris swindle will interview John papania about a study that he recently completed on behalf of the value of jobs coalition a summary of the study is in your packets today and it highlights the potential impact of automation on Oregon's industries occupations regions and populations and offerings it offers guidance on what we should do about that so please welcome Chris and John to the stage thanks for joining me here today John good to be with you well that was quite a presentation by Steve Brown a rather startling look at how technology could impact the future you know I certainly think he got our attention which was his goal John on behalf of the Portland Business Alliance and the value of jobs coalition you just completed a report on automation and how it will impact the future of work how does your analysis on the impact of technology on jobs in Oregon square with what we heard from Steve yeah well it lines up well and I think it needs to be a wake-up call for Oregon and everybody across the country two big takeaways at the top with respect to the the pba study the first is that folks like like Steve futurists are getting clearer and clearer about what where technology is headed and what we haven't spent enough time on is how humans and in this case Oregonians are going to respond to that so we need to up our game and I think that's the whole purpose of the the breakouts this afternoon so it's going to be time very well spent the second big takeaway I would take is off of a chart that we're gonna project here and that has to do with the the condition of employment for prime age males aged 25 to 54 and I'll describe it if it doesn't appear but it if you look at trends since the 1960s you had about five percent or so of prime age males age 25 to 54 who weren't working that has gradually risen to 15 percent today and if you draw a straight line that becomes a quarter of prime age males not working by 2050 Harvard's Larry Summers was his best guest given what's going on and the trends that Steve has talked about would say that he expects it to get to as high as a third if we don't intervene with public policy so sometimes you're in the middle of a problem before you recognize you're in it but we're in the problem and and we've looked at we've looked at the these rates for Oregon one in five 25 to 54 year old males in Eugene and Bend almost one in five aren't working and technology has something to do with that so we've been dealing with disruption for a while but the report you prepared for the value of jobs coalition looks also looks into the impacts for the future how did you do that and what what did you find yeah so what we were really trying to do in this PBA report was put some numbers to Steve's presentation and to do that we went to a study in 2013 by a couple of Oxford University engineers what they did is they sort of stepped through all the occupations that existed circa 2010 in the United States there's 700 plus occupations and they went through all the tasks and activities and Steve referenced some of this in his presentation they went through all those tasks and activities and they and they said we want to see where there are what they called computer bottlenecks where are their activities inside of these occupations that don't lend themselves to automation be a creativity or negotiation of persuasion or working in cramped unusual environments etc and they said that if a if an occupation had very few of these bottlenecks and that it was at higher of automation and if it had a lot of these bottlenecks then it was at much lower risk and so and I I don't know if we we haven't produced the slides yet but I will just tell you that and you saw a little bit of an in Steve's presentation as well that what you've what we found is that there's an awful or what they found is that there's an awful lot of occupations they basically said 50% of US occupations at high risk of automation I in the services in the sales sector in transportation in office and administration etc and again you say okay this isn't futuristic we're in the middle of this you can see what's going on in the retail sector now especially in rural parts of the state where some retail establishments are closing down their storefronts and people are relying more on online shopping and that kind of thing when we took the numbers and and we applied them to Oregon in 2016 and there's if you go on the PBA website and take a look at that you see sizable concentrations of relatively low wage work in the sales sector in the transportation sector office administration etcetera that over some period of time lend themselves to automation and that's what public policy needs to be thinking about and that's what we need to be thinking about in the business sector as well okay so so relatively lower wage and lower skilled jobs or more risk than jobs that require human analysis and that makes sense so retail clerk versus an electrical engineer for example can you make a guess at how this might impact our state overall yeah so we looked at that as well 2016 we know where where occasions exist across the state of Oregon our general finding for the state of Oregon is that it's risk of automation is similar to the nation's and again Steve referenced this earlier about half of jobs deemed it at high risk according to Oxford University and we found that Oregon has that same sort of general risk about app at high risk we have a different portfolio of jobs but a similar risk profile but by region of the state it it varies pretty considerably and here you can see I think we've got slides now much more severity and risk along the coast and in rural in small-town economies across the state of Oregon and that is essentially because those those communities have very low shares of engineers and artists and designers and lawyers and other professions that are harder to automate and they have many more of service jobs and office administrative jobs etc thinking back to a comment that Senator Wyden made this morning one of the strong points for rural Oregon is that you have a healthcare sector and you have an aging demography but if something happens to that employment that's that's one of their hopeful points that would be a problem for for rural Oregon and I'm glad we did get that slide up because it really is an eye-opening slide almost 60% of the jobs along the coast are potentially at risk of automation and in the Portland metro region you know we might see almost 50 percent of jobs affected by technology yet many economists who look into the future don't see mass unemployment anytime soon what's their case yeah so here's the irony economists are always called the dismal scientists but in this case there's sort of the optimistic friendly people in this conversation and they basically make four points the first one is that technology complements labor as much as it substitutes for it so yes we probably got rid of all the buggy makers and many of the blacksmiths in the last wave of automation but there are many examples of where technology complements and doesn't eliminate a job and one of us right out of your sector automate a TMS came into being in the 1970s really took off in the 80s and now they're everywhere but we still have bank tellers they didn't they got rid of the cash handling job the routine cash handling part of the bank tellers job or most of it I turn them into relationship managers and sales agents etc and as you saw in Steve's slide with the trucks there was still somebody in the truck and you could imagine that if if we do have better quote-unquote self self driving trucks that maybe the the job in Wyoming is a little bit different than when the truck pulls into metropolitan Portland and the driver has to become much more involved but those jobs don't disappear completely second point that economists will make is that humans know more than they can tell so if if you can't literally write down all the instructions too then it's going to be hard to code and one example is this this table in front of us neither one of us came and no other presentation presenter came and sat down on this table why not we know that you shouldn't sit down on that on that table but it you know a computer would think it's a bench so it's and there's a lot of examples like that a third point is that consumers can never get enough in the first wave of automation we didn't have air conditioning but then we invented air conditioning and then we built a lot of air conditioning and then we invented Houston Texas and you see how well that all turned out the and and then you know going forward you could go back 15 20 years there were no smartphone app developers bill Conerly an Oregon economist used to always say in his forecast that the fastest growing job is other because we're always inventing new things to do and then a third point that economists will make is that since the dot-com bust in the early 2000s that investment in software and information processing has declined and it stagnated and and these things don't build themselves yet although after you listen to Steve's presentations start to think maybe they will but in any event right now it still takes investment and unless that investment by private sector and frankly public sector time and commitment to make this stuff happen it's going to take time for this this to evolve a last a last point I think that we have a chart for this one is on that economists will bring out is on productivity so that is how much output is the economy producing per hour of Labor and productivity growth has continued to happen but it happened at a decreasing rate where our growth and productivity has not been what it was back in sort of the period immediately after World War two so it's been on this long-term decline MIT and Nobel laureate Bob Solow said I see the computer age everywhere except in these productivity numbers and this is a chart that he's talking about so looking back at the technologists the ax-cut the economists would say you know if this wave is so cool then we want to start seeing the productivity numbers go up okay so forecasts seem to fall between a gradual extension of the status quo and mass unemployment quite a range yeah where do you stand I stand in terms of a policy response I would I would go back to that prime age male trend and you know I would imagine this is going to extend to prime age females as well if we end up over the course the next 15 to 20 years with a quarter to 33% of prime age adults not working that's going to be a huge problem and that's the problem that's in front of us now we should start addressing it agreed that makes sense John let me ask you one more very important question and I think a pivotal one for everyone in the audience here how do we Oregonians avoid that yeah so four points I'd make on this one obviously you listen to Steve my natural instinct I've heard him two or three times my first instinct is to go run and hide and he's got that gigantic wave and it is frightening etc that's not a winning strategy because other places are going to continue to innovate and we would just get left behind in Oregon so I think there are four ways to deal with this number one is we continue our innovation agenda and we realize that this is our home turf that almost everything that Steve is talking about was enabled by Intel software and processors it was invented in our backyard and so we have to we have to continue to lean in and and fulfill that innovation agenda we need Intel to keep doing what they're doing we need oh its issue to beat cancer with precision medicine we need Oregon State to lead on robotics U of O to build out that scientific Center with the with the night money Daimler to build their trucks and we need drones and and cross laminated timber all over the state second thing is and I'll point out at the very back of your agenda here is a goal on housing this is going to take talent to build in population to build we've got to retire the visit but don't stay mentality that the state sometimes has and on this last page there's a goal to build 37 30,000 units of housing a year that would bring housing prices into moderation and it would accommodate a growing labor base number three we've got it we've got to double down on the 40-40-20 challenge in the first wave of automation the Midwest built high schools to respond to that wave we've got to push into the 40-40-20 get many more people in the post-secondary process and then finally we need to reinvent the safety net the safety net that we have today was designed primarily by Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson in the 30s in the 60s they didn't know what this economy was there's much more volatility going on and we're gonna have to we're gonna have to adjust to it one more reference here to a chart that you have in front of us which is on the education front fresh research out of Harvard on what the job market has rewarded over the course of the last thirty years number one social skills with math skills you've got both of those you're in pretty good shape if you had to get rid of one of them drop your math skills basically what it's saying is the labor market already recognizes that it's important that humans know how to be humans thank you John very thoughtful thought-provoking dialog and underlying research and I would just let everyone in the audience know that if you're interested in this topic and would like to get more information on John's research and report please visit www.handspeak.com [Applause] [Music]