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i hope everybody can see my screen that says what could 2021 hold and it will launch on there and craig or j if you don't see it let me know but uh thanks mark thanks for the introduction i really appreciate it and yeah let's start with the big caveat that take everything i say today with a large grain of salt because uh as we'll talk about here in a little bit things can change rapidly in agriculture in the world and obviously that that can influence a lot of different things that happen on the farm and ranch but what we gonna try to do today and thank you everybody i guess for for joining us i i hope maybe you can get a moment to get out of the cold and get a little respite get a little heat and and these kind of days always remind me of back on the farm trying to keep the the tanks clear of ice and we had uh tank heaters that were wood fired and so we always had to keep them well stocked and that was a never-ending job in this kind of weather so i hope you can get a little respite from that but today what we're going to try to do is talk a little bit about um what 2121 could hold and some of the factors that i think will come into play in agriculture in the state of nebraska but i want to do that after setting the stage a little bit about how we emerge from 2020 where i kind of see the financial position and condition of the state's economy or the farm economy anyway right now and i want to try to have a little fun with this and make this a little interactive too so as we go through this we're going to have a few poll questions that jay ferris is going to help me out and get a little sense of what you guys you folks are thinking out there because i can look at all the data and numbers i want sometimes they don't reflect reality and it's good to get kind of ground truth though so so we're going to start with kind of a fun poll to begin with if i can get my screen to advance here let's see oh there we go so first question we got for everybody jay ferris just put up and says given our recent weather will there be a polar bear sighting in nebraska you can answer yes no or no but i i saw an arctic wolf in in my place so please give your answer and uh submit it well jay will show us the results here in just a little bit and if anybody answers you saw a polar bear i'm going to be i'm going to be disappointed that means that this weather is going to stick around for a while so jay do we have the results that we can share yet yep we are ready there they are there they are wow thirty one percent sun vertical already so all right well good i i just want to have a little fun there to get started because sometimes we take this economics pretty seriously so let's start with kind of where we're at in the state's economy right now uh nebraska farm income you can see this this plots from 2000 through 2020 they estimated for 2020 that's why that's red there but you can see we kind of had steady growth through 2010 we had those tremendous years between 11 and 14 where we saw two record one and two record incomes for the state of nebraska net farm income and this includes both farm and ranch the uh the usda just calls it collectively farm income and then you can see we dropped tremendously with the with the struggles that we had beyond 2014 but here in the last few two or three years we've seen some increase in net farm income the the 2020 is a projection by dr brad lubin at the university of nebraska that projects we're going to get close to six billion dollars in net form income for 2020 when it's all said and done we won't know for sure until uh usda releases its estimates in later this year which usually is around september so we won't know for sure but if dr lubin is correct that would be the third highest income that we've seen in the state of nebraska and it will be the third year we've had an increase in income and that is really remarkable given what we were looking at last may and june when when we were in the throes of covid when we had prices dropping precipitously at the time i had done some analysis that showed if prices didn't change we were looking at uh close to four billion dollars of losses revenue losses in agriculture in the state of nebraska so how to to have a turnaround like that and to show the gains that we saw are really remarkable and there's a couple reasons for it one is the level of government assistance that we saw last year due to covet and the ad hoc programs there but the other is the price rally that we saw a little bit uh starting in august of last year and particularly in the commodities corn soybeans and wheat so we'll talk a little bit about the government's share of the income last year that again 2020 is an estimate this shows from 2000 and on and you can see generally government as a percent most years will run somewhere between 10 to 20 to maybe up to 25 of net farm income without a few years obviously where it spiked well above that but you can see last year if projections hold we're looking at around 35 percent of the net farm income coming from government payments and and most of that are just one-time kind of programs like the cfap program the ppp program the uh some of the other covet assistance programs and in fact we're looking uh estimates suggest that government payments to the state of nebraska to producers could reach 2 billion last year nationwide we're looking at an increase of about 107 percent so that's over double what we received the year prior and so a lot of that then in terms of uh the net income gain last year's direct result of that and so it's kind of a bit of a false positive if you will in the sense that you see that net farm income number you think wow things are looking better but then when you look underneath it it shows that there's there's uh some reasons for that that that may not be uh in the bet in terms of indicating what the underlying economy is doing but the other part of that is the is the commodity prices and this comes from the heber report that i that i get daily and it it's a combination of corn wheat and soybean prices since 2017 about mid-2017 and you can see the remarkable uh surge that we've had in prices over uh since august of last year and we've broken out of that range that we're kind of trading in for the longest time and we're seeing levels up there that are up there considerably higher we'll talk about what that might mean for 2021 but when you look at what history tells us is that most of farmers in nebraska will market their ice most about 43 of the grain that's marketed in the state will occur in the fall after harvest and so if that's the case last year you can see the price run up meant a lot more revenue coming into farmers hands because of that and so that was another reason for the net farm income so this is this is a good sign that we've seen the commodity prices rally like they have and we'll talk a little more about the reasons for that but i could one word would describe it and that'd be china they started stepping into the market in a big way so what does this mean uh in terms of where we kind of stand financially for farmers and ranchers across the state it the again the the spike and net farm income kind of masks some uh get the fun their masks uh kind of the underlying what's happening in the farm economy we've seen three or four years of deteriorating impacts farm debt demand was up because they were trying to make the finance their operations working capital was shrinking and so we were seeing financial conditions deteriorating what i think what happened with 2020 because of the the net form income and the jump that we had everything kind of stabilized a little bit and some factors may have worsened a little bit not but not as fast as they might have absent some of the assistance in the run-up and the commodity prices and here's a good example loan repayment rates this comes from the 10th district of the federal reserve bank in kansas city this shows the bankers uh what they anything below that 100 lines shows that the bankers are saying things have gotten worse compared to a year ago so this came in quarter three of last year the third quarter and it showed you can look at nebraska the green box is repayment rates in the second quarter of last year were quite a bit worse than they were the prior year in the third quarter the same way they improved compared to the second quarter but they were still worse than the year prior and the expectation for that was to continue the next three months too and so we still had some underlying financial problems or issues out there on some of our farms and ranches and you can see that nebraska for whatever reason is a little worse off in the loan repayment rates compared to other states in the region with the exception of oklahoma which kind of note raises a little red flag of concern the other thing to kind of look at too is bankruptcies last year these are chapter 12 farm bankruptcies now bankruptcy doesn't necessarily mean that the operation is going out of business but it that it's reorganizing uh its debts and its financial condition and trying to to work out of it but it does show there's some financial stress there and you can see we had 32 bankruptcies last year this wasn't at the level it was the year prior we had 38 in 2019 so it's an improvement but it's still quite a bit higher or higher than than what we've seen in recent years so again it's improved relative to 2019 but still historically it's a note of some some concerns so kind of wrapping up 2020 and kind of where we entered into 2021 again we saw net farm income improve we saw the number of farm loans i didn't show that graph but the number of farm loans was down which that's a good thing that indicates that they didn't have to farmers and ranchers didn't have to take on more debt as much last year again repayment rates deteriorated a little bit uh bankruptcies were down but still relatively compared historically kind of high and then the other thing i didn't show up but land values that everyone's expecting or of hearing anecdotally of land values are stabilized or increasing so that kind of helps in terms of the debt capacity for the operation as well so overall kind of financial conditions i would say better or stabilize compared to where we would have been in 2020 about this time and i think if i remember right j we have our next poll question and i'm just curious uh if you can put that up jay it just asks about your operation compared to last year at this time your financial condition and this is all anonymous we don't can't collect any names or anything on this and and so we won't know but i just curious if if if you're seeing the same thing on your operation financially are you much better somewhat better about the same or worse than last year and it's just again kind of a ground truth to see what what you think so we'll let you give you a chance to vote on that a little bit we got a few more coming in so we'll hold off make sure everybody has a chance to vote we'll close it now all right that's that's uh that's good to see it kind of shows that so it uh seven percent might said much better 54 somewhat better and 39 about the same so that's kind of what the data was telling me and and uh what i was seeing so that's good to see thanks thanks everybody appreciate that so uh with that setting the stage looking forward to only 21 there's a variety of factors out there that obviously can influence what's going to happen and and this is where you start taking things in the grain of salt because it's kind of j rimpy's opinion now of what things could could influence and and uh affect what might happen in 2021 and so we'll try to run through each one of these in just a little bit so let's let's start with the covet 19. course that's that's the big one out there right now that we're trying to work through there's a lot of uncertainties around it obviously it had tremendous impacts on agriculture last year caused us to have to re-configure a lot of things so the pace at which the vaccinations and that we try to return to some form of normal whatever that is i think we'll go long ways to kind of determining the overall economic health of the country and agriculture just today i was looking at data from the state of nebraska and in nebraska about five percent of the population that's age 16 years and older have been vaccinated so the vaccination we're working our way along it's kind of slowly going along and whatever point we can hit where we can a lot of people can be feel safe and venturing out again that will pick up the economic recovery so a lot of it is how soon and how strong will the economy rebound last year the economy overall economy shrank by about 3.6 this year most economists are expecting it to grow somewhere between three and four percent and which is which is good for agriculture the one of the criticals is the what they call the hri sector which is the hotel restaurant and institution sectors so like your hospitals your schools and those kind of things along with their hotels that took a big hit obviously with coved through the the food sector the restaurants and the like sales were off 19 last year whereas grocery sales were up 10 percent so we lost a bit of demand there in in the sense that not all that that demand that was lost in the restaurant sector converted over to the grocery sector and the other factor is uh particularly in the meat processing or the protein industry is the different cuts that they demand in the different sectors and and the prices the value of those that there's a big difference between that and that's what we saw in agriculture so moving forward those disruptions are we going to be able to come through unscathed with our meat processing sector and avoid any more shutdowns or problems there because we need those to be running at pretty full capacity to to keep things moving along as we found the other thing that's on my mind a little bit is input supplies as we enter planting season i know uh just an example my wife and i in november had to replace a refrigerator ours conked out and we really did not have much choice in what we bought because of the disruptions and the the lack of supplies that were available over refrigerators and i'm hearing that in other things too so i that's something to keep in mind as your inner planting season is to make sure that you got your your parts and your infants lined up and then of course the government assistance and what's going to happen there will there be more less whatever that will come into play all regarding covet as we move forward this year and then the other thing that's out there that's kind of overhanging nebraska is the drought issue at the omaha world herald reported a couple weeks ago that this is the first time in eight years that nebraska has been the entire state has been under some form of drought you can see from the map here that the the panhandle in the southwest nebraska are the most critical areas right now that's no surprise they when we enter a drought they typically are the first to start to show problems that red area that you see there it encompasses about 24 percent of the state and so obviously our wheat production and there's a lot of corn that's produced kind of in those areas as well too it could have some impact on that and then when you look at moving forward if this continues about 58 of our cropped area is dry land and so that's when you start talking about the stress or drought on the dry land of course the irrigators could see increased cost because of increased pumping and then you worry about in the sandhills and and pastures about forage production and kid herd capacity so those things are kind of out there and not only is in nebraska but you can see from the united states obviously the southwest part is is under a brutal drought right now but uh the dryness creeps into iowa and up into minnesota and south dakota and north dakota which uh north dakota has become a major soybean producer and obviously iowa the corn belt so it's just something to watch as we enter in get closer to the planting season and the drought and how that might impact uh some of the the markets out there and particularly in nebraska and our production capabilit es so let's take a little closer look at the crops we're entering the year as i pointed out in that graph earlier with with multi-year high prices uh for the expect those prices to remain at least for the remainder of the marketing year which ends at the end of august and a lot of that is due to to a surge in demand overseas but also some production hiccups and in some competing countries and then you know last year our production didn't turn out as as much as we thought so we're seeing some of those uh high prices in fact usda just yesterday and their latest uh bumped up the their estimate of the average farm price that producers will receive across the nation for corn to four dollars and 30 cents and they kept soybeans at 11.15 but in both those were we're kind of in a in a cycle of tighter supplies right now i think the soybean usda estimated the stock to use ratio at the end of the marketing year will be as low as 3 percent so we've got a lot of tailwinds for crop producers right now uh and particularly when you look at what's happening in some competing countries and some of the export restrictions that they're putting in place because they're worried about food inflation in those in their countries like russia ukraine and argentina and elsewhere so there's a lot of tailwinds there some headwinds for the crops might be at some point these prices get high enough they're going to start if it hasn't already occurred some rationing of demand particularly in the feed sector livestock sector and also the ethanol sector and i didn't mention that under the covet but that's another critical area is how quick are people going to get out and start driving again and demand gasoline last figures i saw gasoline consumption was off about 12 so ethanol consumption is as well too so you kind of have a double whammy for ethanol so we might see some rationing there of course we have the drought another thing to think about is uh given that the price levels right now and the farm programs that we have in place i would expect very minimal farm program payments this year based on last year's crop or moving forward into next year things hold so you won't have that that revenue source there but all all things told things are looking very positive right now for crop producer one of the biggest questions is what are the planting tensions what are what are folks going to do in terms of planting this year this this plots out from 1990 the acres of corn soybeans wheat and sorghum in the state of nebraska and you can see a couple trends emerging one is uh corn and soybean acres are increasing over time corn has grown from just under 8 million acres to now consistently over 10 million acres soybeans has grown from about two and a half million up over five million now pretty consistently almost it's doubled over that time and then wheat and sorghum have gone the other way but that's one of the you know they're saying is is the the best cure for high prices is high prices and that's because we have a way of producing our way our way out of high prices and so one of the big factors at least moving forward for the new crop is what are farmers going to do in the way of planting and so that leads us to our next poll question jay uh and we're just curious about what what you what you're going to do in 2020 are you going to plant more corn and soybean acres or maybe more corn and less soybean or less corn and more soybean and so or less of both so just curious what you're thinking the market seems to be right now wanting to bid soybean acres and increase those but it's all in on your hands i guess so to speak so we'll let you you vote a little bit on that and and see what you think how we coming jay yeah we're about half of the people have voted so we'll give them a few more seconds all right and for the purpose of this test why bean does mean soybean for the for that i was going to mention that so okay we're going to end it and share these all right so about 40 say we're going to do more corn and soybean and then um 21 more corn less soy beans and then 36 percent less corn more soybeans so uh looks like more acres but a little different mixture there and what you're going to do so that's that's kind of interesting thanks everybody appreciate the feedback on that so let's talk a little bit livestock real quick um we have i and i'm going to talk primarily uh cattle just because that's the biggest thing here in the state of nebraska that i don't want a slight pork and poultry at all but uh when you look at the the egg economy in nebraska it's corn soybeans and beef cattle so that's that's why we're focusing there so i finish or looking at 2020 they cattle markets did not perform near as well as the commodity markets did in fact i think feeder cattle prices compared to january 1 of last year were about the same at ending the year and then the fed cattle were down off about 10 so not near didn't see the inflation that we did in in the commodity or the crop markets but uh given that we're we're ending the year seems like we have fewer animal numbers out there uh it seems like things are setting up for a little bit an improved price situation this year for 2021. uh we've seen good demand in fact you usda just mark bumped up their beef exports uh projections a little bit in the overseas markets here yesterday and then a lot of what for the livestock in the protein sector the economic recovery and i said i put on unemployment numbers there because when people have jobs they have income coming in they'll they'll eat a little more beef and when they don't have jobs and less income then they won't they'll go to some cheaper source of protein like poultry or or something so it uh i think a lot on the demand side for the livestock producers it depends on how quick the economy the economy recovers and how quick it grows and then watching overseas those other countries as well too and see how they emerge out of the covid so the the headwinds uh obviously the rising feed costs when you have the the commodity markets doing what they're doing and then the distillers grains and the like the the processing disruptions again can we avoid those and then how quickly does does the hotel restaurant and institutional sector recover and bounce back so setting it up i think on the livestock side the supply side of things look supportive to prices in terms of what's happening there the uh the headwinds uh a lot of the questions and uncertainties on the demand side and how quickly are we going to cover and what we're going to do so i as setting here i i don't foresee i i think things will be a little bit better for the livestock producers compared to to last year but that's not setting up quite as positive as it is for the crop production side and so just sure talk a little bit more this came from the kansas state this shows their projections of the net returns for finishing steers in kansas and i i would say it's probably pretty equatable to the state of nebraska as well the blue line on the far right is uh is when they the projection line from there forward is a projection of what might happen forward you can see prior to that in 2020 a lot of red there which which obviously is not good but moving forward it seems like things balance out uh and have a few positive months and then a few negative months as well so a little looks like a little better situation moving forward than than what we had last year and then this this just plots uh feeder prices this comes from the usda and it's compiled by the livestock market information center the bright red line is uh these are nebraska prices the bright red line is the average for 2015 and 2019. and uh then the dotted line is from last year you can see we're in the blue line is is this year you can see we're starting off less than last year uh but hopefully maybe we'll see things uh stay fairly steady or improve a little bit then we won't see those dips that we saw last year due to covet but still so relative last year things might for the in the cow calf markets might be fairly stable but relative to what we've seen the last few years it's still off quite a bit so it again it kind of makes it a tough time for the the cow calf producer right now so that leads to our next question in terms of uh looking at the livestock industry coming into the year we had fewer cows we had fewer replacement heifers and so you would expect to see fewer calves this year in the in the calf crop but i'm just curious for those of you that run some cows what what are you looking at your operation are you going to have more calves relative to last year about the same number less calves or or not applicable to you so you don't you don't raise cattle so just just curious the numbers for what we're seeing which should suggest a smaller calf crop but i'm curious if that's what you're thinking on your operation you've ever been just a second or two here more to vote okay we've got most of the votes cast so and those ensure the results okay well uh so this this is interesting to me because about 30 said about the same number and 17 more calves and only nine percent less calves so that would suggest uh the picking up some wrong data or making some assumptions that that aren't correct so i appreciate that everybody that's good so all right we'll move on and we've got two or three more topics here to talk about real quick and then we can open it up for some questions uh exports exports in 2020 were rock star uh ad compared to 2019 and there's the one big reason for that is china china came in in the latter half of the year and started buying a lot of soybeans corn and they had been buying pork and uh so that surge just really helped in in our export markets and this what i'm showing here the red bars are the percentage growth in the export of that product compared to 2019 and then the blue bars are what happened in 2019 so you can see comparable numbers to 2019 soybeans were up 38 last year compared to nine percent the year prior corn was up 20 and they were off 39 the year prior uh red meat products were up seven percent compared to three percent most of that is pork beef was actually off just a little bit uh but most of pork had an outstanding year last year so you can see all across the board these are all products that nebraska exports are key for us and so we saw a good year last year and the reason i point this out is because if you look at the value of exports from the state of nebraska in terms of our commodities it equates to about 30 percent of the total ag receipts that we'll receive each year so our ag exports around six and a half billion six to six and a half billion in in the last couple years and our ag receipts are about 20 21 22 billion so it makes up a significant share or equates to a significant share so we got to watch the export markets and see how they're doing so in 2021 again it's it's looking very very positive for ag exports and these these are the latest estimates on the top that came from the usda this is from november so they're dated but you can see their forecast for this fiscal year in november was 152 billion dollars worth of ag exports and that far exceeds anything that we've seen in recent years and you can see that we've always carried a trade surplus with ag from the united states meaning that we export more than we import but in 2020 we in the last couple years 199 or 2019 and 2020 we were kind of flirting with uh whether that would continue or not but they're expecting things to surge this year and we're going to see that surplus start to bloom back out again they're projecting at 15 billion yesterday they adjusted their corn exports and soybean exports upward compared to to the november so i would not be surprised if when we come out with new numbers from the usda those numbers will be even higher so again corn and soybeans are expected to have record-setting years and that's due to china they're they're buying a lot of both right now one of the markets we've got to watch a little bit particularly for nebraska is mexico we sell a lot of corn down in mexico they've adopted some new rules about gmo uh corn and basically prohibiting the the use of gmo corn or planting gmo corn in mexico it's a little unsure or unclear what it means in the way of importing gmo corn into mexico so that that needs to be watched a little bit because if they try to make that apply to gmo corn obviously that'll have an impact on on a major market for nebraska beef and pork i when i built the slide they were looking for basically things to stay pretty stable and maybe moderate a little bit but again yesterday they bumped up the beef export number a little bit uh but that's okay because we've had some record-setting years in the last few years and beef and pork exports so we if we can hold that we're doing good so i think overall for nebraska and the products that we export it's looking like a good year in 2021. the other thing that i'll probably change a little bit is with the new administration our stability in relations i don't think this administration will be so so quick to rock the boat so to speak in terms of our trading partners and slapping tariffs and things on people they'll probably work a little more multilaterally and enter into negotiations before taking any so i expect some more stability there and then uh obviously there's a new sheriff in town with the election of uh senator or senator by excuse me president biden and that'll have a whole lot of uh different impacts on on nebraska agriculture some of them may not occur this year i think they'll be a little bit more longer term but i just i want to throw them up there i get one of the bigger questions is covet assistance and obviously president biden is trying to get a package passed through congress at the 1.9 trillion dollar package it doesn't look jordan and i were just visiting this morning it doesn't look like there's a whole lot in that package for what we'll consider conventional agriculture and there are some things in there for agriculture but a little more targeted this time so i would i would really suspect that we're not going to see the levels of cobit assistance this year in nebraska for agriculture that we did last year if there is some it's it we'll have to see what form and shape it takes because that's a that's a big question the other thing that they kind of keep on the radar is the usda that tom vilsack has been appointed again as the secretary he's been there before so he's a he's a known quantity but i think he's going to have a little different focus this time the biden administration really wants to focus on climate change and so the usda is going to be looking at ways that it can set up some markets for carbon credits and energy credits and ways to pay farmers for for uh saving carbon and energy and the like so i don't know if that'll come into play yet this year i i suspect it it won't it'd be more next year but that would be something to watch too and then finally the epa uh michael reagan from north carolina is appointed to fill in the epa obviously there's some regulatory issues there that that we'll be watching closely could have some impact like the lotus the waters of the u.s and pesticides i think the more immediate one is the rfs band-aid at least initial announcements that they've made on the rfs sounds like they might be a little more friendly towards protecting the rfs and making sure that it does what it's supposed to compare to the prior administration so so that's a positive there and then the last thing i i want to mention um this year is is the black sauna events uh it's defi black swan is defined as an unpredictable event that are beyond what is normally expected and have potentially severe consequences and they're usually kind of unique and rare and those things that just kind of come in out of nowhere and all of a sudden just have a dramatic impact on everything when you think about what's happened in nebraska agriculture in recent years that not 2019 we had the flood and blizzard and then that same year later in the fall we had the tyson fire the processing plant in kansas which played heck with the cattle markets for a while and then obviously coveted 19 last year and and gen rally you'd like to think that okay we we kind of had three of these rare occurrences over the last two years what more can there be but i think if anything has taught us over the last two or three years is to be be alert to be wary and make sure you have your operations positioned where if we have another black swan event whatever it might be that you're positioned to to to manage your way through it as as best you can so the one last pull oh i'm sorry i have one more slide here so in summary uh again i think crop producers things are are looking up this year a couple things out there to watch are are the drought and then i think the other question for crop producers is will the market and the prices offset the government assistance received last year livestock producers i'm going to say it's it's basically a give or take it's kind of a stable year i think it'll be a little better than last year but maybe not as good as it has been in the past and a lot of that is around the demand and certainties that are out there again exports are going to be a rock star they're they're going to really do well but when it's all said and done i just because we're not going to see the level of government assistance i i think net farm income for the state probably will be less this this coming year just because of uh well both the livestock struggles and and the level of government assistance only lasts so that's that kind of summarizes kind of what my crystal ball is seeing right now but the last question and probably the one outlook or thing that people are more concerned about is the nebraska football team so my question to you is will the nebraska football team have a winning record here in 2021 yes no or the only win will be the spring game so submit your questions and and then uh craig i think or jay we can open it up for questions if anybody has them and i'd be glad to try to tackle them sounds great today fabulous job thanks again for doing that great information yeah so if you have questions please go ahead and raise your hand and we will get you in queue to get that answered for you or go ahead and please type your question into the chat and i know i've got one right here in the chat right away jay we can start with okay first question is what direction do you think fed cattle will be in through june jane uh fed cattle through june yep fed cow through june what direction we headed you know uh great question i i i think that uh i've from what i've seen and read that things will kind of stabilize in the fat cattle markets that i think they might trend a little bit to the positive side uh and then uh later in the year maybe not not quite as as much but i i've given up trying to figure out really where the fake cattle market there's so many different influences on that but i i think at least for the first half of the year overall they're probably looking a little more positive than than what we've had in the past sounds good jay uh i've got a comment here uh from brad lubin uh some people are familiar with brad the comment is jay i agree that i wouldn't plan on a new round of assistance in the new round of coverley for conventional ag i'm still expecting a roll out of the ag assistance passed in december so there should be some payments coming in 2021. that was brad's assessment yeah that's i'm glad brad said that that's an excellent point because i i didn't talk about the december package that the the usda rolled out so there will be some monies coming in for that that i i didn't mention that that will be helpful but yeah i think on the conventional side of things it doesn't look like there's going to be a lot of help this year uh this one asks jay when you break down net farm income can you split it into separate farm from ranch uh you know i'd have to look into that a little bit more the the uh the usda figures that we follow and use are they they lump everything together and i guess i've never looked at whether it splits out the the cropping side of the cropping elements from the livestock and the ranching side of it so that would be i haven't seen that but uh that'd be something i could look into a little bit more okay got another one for you jay if carbon credits or some kind of a market is established do you see nebraska producers well positioned to take advantage of that or what might that look like and how could it impact net farm income you know uh that's that's a great question and i think with nebraska with the way our agriculture and the natural resources we have with the irrigation and the like i think we would be well positioned to be able to capture some things there now how all these markets start that's one thing in fact i i want to look into a little bit more because uh it's always been an issue that's been out there but we've never had that sense of urgency that i think we do now with the new administration in washington and some of the things that are happening so uh i yes i think that it's a another source of potential income for nebraska i think we're pretty positioned how this all shakes out and how all these markets because i know there's a lot of private companies that are investing in this as well too like indigo ag i think lando lakes and and i could probably list them coca-cola all kinds are establishing their own general mills their own kinds of programs to pay farmers to do various things and so uh it it'll take some due diligence and work through it but i think there's some opportunities there oh we got one here for you jay can nfb or can farm bureau help keep us informed of cc programs and i'm assuming carbon credits you think because that's what i'm assuming so maybe if they could clarify in the comment if you don't mind just yeah if that's what they're talking about that's that's uh you're thinking exactly what we're thinking because yes and and that's why i mentioned earlier i want to investigate this a little more and we're going to try to pull together some information for our members and producers just to some background on what's happening what it means things to look for and due diligence and i think that's one area where we as an organization could provide some help to some information to our members so where are you if you can hear me uh what do you see happening in farm interest rates you know uh i for the nearby for the near term i don't see anything that would suggest that the interest rates are going to go back up the fed has has made it pretty clear that they're i think until they get some good clear signs that the economy is recovering and that maybe inflation is starting to to pick back up i think they're going to keep interest rates where they're at and and so i would anticipate for at least the next few months of interest rates staying pretty pretty stable and that i would be looking at signs of uh you know if this package does pass through congress and we get this 1.9 trillion out in the economy and we see uh we'll get start moving out of the cove and we start seeing signs of consumers out and buying again watching for signs of inflation and then that might be a sign that the fed might start to put the damper on it a little bit but in the near term i think interest rates will stay where they're at