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[Music] good morning and welcome to the 19th annual economic forum brought to you by the calhoun county area chamber and visitor center in partnership with the jacksonville state university center for economic development and business research i'm stephen mcclung i'm dean of the school of business and industry at jacksonville state university dr mark curran is going to take you through the economic forum in just a bit but first i wanted to let you know about the progress being made at our new business school at jacksonville state university as you know a few years ago our building was devastated by a tornado that ripped through the middle of the building since then we have been trying to build the uh programs back and the building well it's my good news to report that this year we are slated to be back in our new building the new merrell hall in just about the same place that the old merrell hall stood we are working to get into the building by the middle of august of this year classes start on august 18th we want our faculty into the building in august 11th we have a lot of good upgrades from the old building we will have a fully stocked finance financial lab at the new merrill building and it will have the latest in technology for finance majors we will also have a number of classrooms that have been sponsored and founded uh funded rather by our donors we also will have a restaurant that will serve coffee and food in the first floor of the building this restaurant z beans will also hire our students for jobs and internships so we will have a working model of a business right in the building we're very excited and we will work very hard to keep you updated uh on the progress of moving into our building and we will certainly invite you once we open up the new building and now with this year's economic forum dr mark hearn dean thank you our economy continues to recover one year ago many organizations in our county this area the great state of alabama and loving united states they were running at near full capacity wide open then the pandemic had it brought us to a dead stop close the doors in the folk zone since then we have bounced back and things are certainly looking better the the pandemic continues to impact us and and it will for some time that that's just something we all understand you were reading the same news stories i'm reading with respect to colbin 19 probably that new cases are down they're down significantly they have been maybe we're stalling that decline right now new vaccines are coming online where vaccinations are picking up pace johnson and johnson for example they will probably be approved by the federal drug administration over the weekend they have a one-shot lower maintenance vaccine it's hopeful it's hopeful feeling better about it as we get to this new normal whatever that's going to be we're already starting to see some of the problems that we had before the pandemic and right up there at the top of the list good people good workers they are hard to find hello i am mark earn work for jacksonville state school of business and industry and i want to go over this information with you and again this information is brought to you in conjunction with jsu center for economic development and business research under jennifer greene and very appreciative of that sponsors we've always enjoyed a wide variety of sponsors for this program and it's greatly appreciated now some housekeeping issues first this information is set up to be run through very fast and i promise you i'm going to try to do it fast the general organization is this if we're talking about the united states there will be that red map in the united states up in the upper right-hand corner and the bars will generally be red or the lines or any other that information if we're looking at state alabama same kind of thing blue outline map of the state of alabama blue bars and for cowan county if we're talking about the entire county we'll have that map up and the bars will be great another another little item colonel potts i understand you're in the room as always i'm glad you're in the room i miss having a chance to talk with you and hear those great questions but a couple of things we don't have a physical product what we have is this this virtual product meeting we will have a physical product in the in the future hopefully next time we get together consolidated publishing or certainly willing able and provide that to us but this virtual product one thing about it chronopods the appendix is down at the bottom of the screen the sources that are listed down in the lower left they're all hyperlinks and you can click on that and bounce to the source for the information this is true for about 90 of the sources if they're behind a firewall username password protected you will not be able to get those those will not be linked but everything else is out there for you hopefully that will allow you and maybe if you're looking at this later on you might want to check and see if the numbers have updated and that'll send you right to it this will probably also be a part of all future economic forums for us the big picture we can hear gross domestic product change from preceding period in the united states most recent number we have is fourth quarter 2020 you can see the huge dip as the pandemic hit one of the record hits on our economy in the united states and then that huge bounce back for the third quarter and then we move back down to a nice number at four percent that's be great if we can stay there now on industrial production certainly dropped significantly but we've come back but we're still down about 1.9 the non-farm payroll employment numbers which is a great survey and provides a lot of information you can see that we dropped 20 million jobs during the pandemic and we've certainly come back but we're still down a significant number eight million six hundred and three thousand at the national level in the in the dow the dow the dow timeline is a little longer we're going back before the pandemic looking at uh february and then and then coming forward and and we're up the stock exchange has come back then we're up about six point in the last 13 months prices we're not seeing a lot of inflation inflationary pricing it's very time last 12 months we're up 1.62 percent no real concerns there monthly retail sales as well we're up 2.9 percent last 12 months it's good to see housing is different it hardly slowed down at all maybe a little just a slight little bit people are concerned but since then is taking off and even more so as you'll see later when we're talking about alabama and county and their prices are up 7.9 percent nationally essentially what is happening is people are buying space now the labor force absolutely had a drop nationally uh we've come back still down 4 million 296 thousand and employment even a larger hit than in the labor force and while we've come back we're still down 8 million 628 thousand the unemployment rate big bounce like the others coming back down 6.3 percent the most recent number up about 2.8 percent 12 months ago a little bit more on the labor force issues some of that is not being picked up in reality and there's a lot of talk about the employment population ratio and how much it has dropped 3.6 maybe that's a better indication of how tough it is to find people and the labor force participation rate had a significant drop as well down about 2 in the last 12 months lastly in this section i want to talk about how people are feeling right one more in this section by the way as far as consumer sentiment this is uh you're looking at a record level a drop down we've come back to some extent but we're still down 24.6 percent from 12 months ago people are feeling very cautious i think that's probably the best way to put it and one of the outcomes of that is savings people are holding onto their money savings rate is up 90 percent an amazing change and we're 13.7 people are holding on to their money now that's really quick update on the national numbers about to get into the state as far as questions go please submit those online through the chat and when we get a little break here later on i'm going to get that information and we'll certainly try to respond to all of those all right the alabama picture we don't have state level data on the 2020 census yet that's been delayed and it could easily be the fall before we get those numbers so we're still looking at estimates we're estimated up so are the neighbors the encouraging news is migration patterns based on people moving around the united states this is from the united event lines always thought it was a great study alabama is listed as a high inbound state and that percentage inbound is one of the highest we've had in some time 59 please note there are several states in the southeast the last six years we've been listed as high inbound for those and again with the highest percentage being in 2020 and one of the questions they ask is you know why why did you move to alabama and the top three reasons have been the same for several years it's been about retirement health and the number one reason jobs they also ask the people that are leaving the same question and family is certainly in the list but look at the last row over on the right you can see that it's still about jobs and even with a higher percentage we're losing people for jobs people that we would love to keep and have them here gdp at the state level we have it through the third quarter of 2020. we generally have been tracking right along with the state we didn't dip as much i'm right along with the national picture we did not dip it as much as a national picture and we've come back a little stronger and that's good force down slightly at the state level down about twenty eight thousand four hundred forty five from december of nineteen we don't have any more recent numbers than december of 2020 the new numbers will be out about eight days unemployment and even larger drop and we're down about 54 521 employed people in the state from 12 months ago significant unemployment unemployment we tracked up with the national picture both have been declining over the course of the the pandemic since april but we've dropped even lower than the national number and the most recent number december the national picture at 6.7 alabama at 3.9 labor again is getting tight we are we we saw a drop in quits number of people just coming in the door and saying that dropped off which is not surprising a year ago i predicted that we would break 12 billion for the first time what you're looking at here every one of these years has been a record there was a lot of hoopla fiscal year 1617 first time we broke 10 billion then the next year we almost broke 11 and then we did in 1819 and this year we're up as well we we broke 12 billion for the first time i predicted that before the pandemic but i certainly thought i'd be wrong after pandemic hit but we're but it's not the case we're up five percent 12 billion 210 million breaking it down incomes for last fiscal year we're up one point nine four percent again we're looking at record levels sales tax is up as well 2.13 for the fiscal year let's look at what's happened since the end of the fiscal year so now we're talking about october uh january and we're up even more incomes are up 4.92 percent the sales tax has been collected up 9.26 percent huge huge increase and the total is up seven percent so the fall was not near as bad as i i thought it was going to be the most recent number we have is january and you look at that the growth continues incomes are up even more 7.09 percent sales tax revenues up 11.86 percent overall up 6.78 we're definitely on a record track for state alabama as far as tax revenues in the upcoming year in this fiscal year certainly on record track whether or not we're going to break 13 billion we'll see at this rate we will now one of the stars of the account we've been following this for the last couple of years is the simplified seller's use tax which is a fancy name for a tax on internet sales fantastic that we've got this it was a little bitty account just a few years ago and now it's one of the stars of the balance sheet i mean it's a dramatic increase great source of income for the state for education it's up 90 from the fiscal year before and for the fiscal year to date the growth continues up 44.96 percent now the money what happens to the money the lion's share of the money goes to alabama's general fund 37 education is 13 and the other half of the pie is split between the cities and the counties it used to be that split was right down the middle so the total pie they would each get 25 percent that's changed and now the cities are getting 30 percent of the total in the counties are getting 20 but they're dividing up fairly large number 386 million during 1 000 real money one of one of the stars of the economy in alabama for the year has been housing housing prices are up 12 for the year days on the market down total homes sold up significantly 12.8 percent so we looked at a survey the consumer sentiment survey about the united states this one is for the state of alabama inside our friends of tuscaloosa and again you could hyperlink is high you can go and check it comes out every quarter how are people feeling the overall from last quarter the overall outlook for the economy in the state the number one response was that things are better it's like you know better after a car wreck when you crawl away from it it is better uh but people are nowhere near as confident as they were a year ago a little bit about this and the colors some suggestions from the students if you go from a red bar to a red bar you're looking at a year change and you can see from first quarter 20 to first quarter 21 that overall outlook is down about 10 10.2 percent we're certainly up from last quarter we're going from purple to red fourth quarter 20 to first quarter of 21. we're we're up but it's not up that much 1.8 percent and we have a series of days hiring a lot of people are just trying to maintain their current level we've got some moderate increase by about a third of the respondents but again that number is down here to here about six percent and from last quarter that was up about six point seven percent sales act outlooks people are seeing increases in sales but it's still down about 9.4 percent and but up from the fourth quarter capital expenditures a lot of people continue to hold on to their money because of the uncertainty no change is the main response but moderate increase is out there i think chunk of that is jacksonville state when i filled out the survey and we've got a change of about 12.9 percent year to year from last quarter uh 7.3 percent so let's sum that up labor force definitely down employment down almost twice as much 90 the unemployment rate dropping from the highs back in april december 3.9 percent tax revenues at record levels 12.21 billion and the housing market up significantly 12 and now it's time to talk about us calhoun county and then county area we we have survey data from the membership market labor force data we have the numbers on the counties and on the cities as well and and the housing numbers so let's get into this we asked generally about seven questions and overall the membership again feels positive that things are getting better overall economic outlook better it was number one response 42 index value of 0.74 that index value is down from last year as you would expect employment again a lot of organizations seem to be trying to maintain a certain level of workforce and they're replacing leaves but nothing much beyond that slight increase 33 index value of 0.65 which is significantly down from 0.68 and employee compensation that one 65 is saying yes they're gonna have to pay people more and that index value 0.73 is it's not as high as it was a year ago when we're running wide open but it's still happening a little bit long wages later demand for the products slight increase new product offerings happening index value 0.75 down from a year ago intentions change the number of outlets and talking about spending money most people are saying they're not doing that and from a y ar ago and expenditures on advertising 47 saying remain the same slide increased 34 that index value of 0.64 is is down significantly we always ask this question i don't always report it but we it's election year and we've got it in here we asked the membership how it's going with the local government are they supportive of business and and this is one of the highest index values of anything that we get at 77 percent they you know a sizable portion are saying very supportive the highest response for that category of the survey that's nicely done so overall how are people feeling we've got 42 this is the most common response overall that looks slightly better down a little bit number of employees about this remain the same down a little bit the employee pay slight increase 65 percent the demand product slight increase and number of outlets and then advertising you see those numbers now population trends in the county a couple of things about this we usually talk about this every year look at 2009 compared to 2010 2009 was a estimate for cowan county from the census bureau 2010 is the hard count and you can see their estimate was significantly off and they adjusted that but it's like they can't stand it they just keep going back down it's like they wanted to get back down to their previous estimate before the next heart count i hope there is a is wrong this time as there were last time and maybe they'll eventually get it but we'll know soon enough the results will be here for us now gdp for the at the county level there's this ridiculous lag of uh at the national and the state level we only have information through 2019 i think it's interesting to know we after several years of tracking with the state number which is in blue we've moved above them for that most recent 2019 number two our labor force yes we absolutely took a hit in county we're down about 1910 folks december to december you can see that big bounce up in april as the governor switched the general order from stay at home to safer at home and people started coming back but we're still down employment and county definitely a big head and you compare the small changes we had in other years we were just starting to grow we had we've been declining for several years 18 19 though that was just starting to move up very positive and then we got hit so we're down about 3874 according to the us department of labor uh actually this comes from the alabama department of labor and i certainly like their numbers they do great work down there and you see we've been moving back but we're still the unemployment rate huge jump but that's for the average since that average defining jump back in april when we we bounced up to 18.2 percent we've been coming down hard as has the state and we finished in december right near the state we're at 4.4 percent in the states of 3.7 we'll take a closer look at that and this is not seasonally adjusted because you can't get seasonally adjusted information at the county level looking around the state almost all the counties are in that lower category of six point six percent or below with the average of three point seven in town county at four point four percent taking it apart a little bit one of the declining elements of town county's employment situation for several years now it's been the depot as they moved back from conflicts they were engaged in but federal employment reversed that trend and has been expanding the last several years and please note federal level they didn't lay anybody off they expanded a little bit and that number is actually up we have more information on the depot that i want to call your attention to they have been impacted by coping 19 but they continue to meet 99 of their production schedule any one of their employees that would like to have the vaccine they've had at least the first shot their workload remains relatively steady and if all planned fiscal year programs are funded they do expect that they should be able to maintain this level of employment they do have some foreign military sales that have been impacted and they're hopeful that'll be cleared up and they're hopeful about fiscal year 22. they have some pending m1 tank cells which they hope are going to work out generation and rail repair facility is scheduled for full operation march 22 and again they're a significant portion of our economy manufacturing absolutely took a hit for the year but they've been coming back later in the year then maybe some of the other sectors but a nice number in december service sector big hit as well coming back still down wages just a little bit on that the blue line on the top is alabama and then the green line across the bottom those numbers calhoun county this is from 2011 through 2020. that gap between us and the state number used to be significantly narrower it's spread out now and we're running about 78 but please note the last two figures these for the state number from 19 to 20 we can have a significant increase in wages at the state level of what's that look like about 1.60 increase average hourly earnings in the private sector and at the county level up about a dollar thirty so definitely we're seeing some people putting in a higher wage out there who are actually working tax collections following the money good year for the county the total collections for gown county fiscal year 1516 through fiscal year 1920 this is in millions counting was up 9.25 for the fiscal year it's a very nice bomb by the way these hyperlinks are headed to the alabama department of revenue and all the tax information at the county level except for one that i'm pointing out when we get to it these are all coming from the same source that's a little different from us we tried to get this information in different ways in the past and and had a mixed success on that but this time they're all coming from the same place the alabama department of revenue simplified sellers use tax again that's the largest percentage-wise gaining segment at the on the balance sheet for the county and it's up 95 percent and 42 of that this time went to the counties went to town county and then you can see anderson got the next largest share closely followed by oxford and in jacksonville this is straight up about population population drives how much you get it drives how much the county gets and it drives how much the different cities get has nothing to do with how much they buy online that's the simplified part of the plan tax collections from madison up 2.33 last fiscal year and we have phone numbers for anderson and and i'd like to think this would be indicative of most of the cities where even if we don't have information from trying to pull it from that anderson was up 10 percent your day through january oxford down slightly down 1.55 for the last fiscal year brick and mortar retail center i think that makes perfect sense tax collections in jacksonville up two percent 2.05 percent last fiscal year for ohatchee up 5.52 piedmont up 9.51 nice bounce we do have fall numbers for piedmont and they were up 11 percent very similar to what we're seeing and weaver something's something's happening right up 48 for the fiscal year and the fall numbers boom another 47 significant increase in revenues thompson city down slightly down five percent i do want to call attention to this this is lodging tax collections for cowan county and these we received directly from the county appreciate them getting these numbers together as you would think people are not traveling they're staying closer to home that number is significantly down after years of increase down 28 for the fiscal year home sales up up in a big way breaking the trend line and uh getting a closer look at it it's the trifecta right average prices are up 12 days on the market down 11 total homes sold up a whopping 20 so to wrap this up let's just do a quick review we asked the membership how they're feeling and they're feeling positive that no it's feeling as positive as they were a year ago but they certainly feel things are getting better population estimate estimated uh up slightly but so are the neighbors and and that's the general feel about it the labor force down employment down almost twice that a little more than twice that unemployment is up but the most recent number december 4.4 percent when you get down around four percent you know things are getting tight and then lodging tax revenues down significantly total tax revenues up we in spite of everything saw some nice increase in that way and the housing market total homes up significantly please take a moment to look at that while i take some questions a few here that uh we want to try to look at katrina dorsey is asking great question when we're looking at my migration what industry in county are they people migrating to so that's something that i need to collect and try to get that breakdown i don't think i can get it from the united van line study i don't think they're going to have that information on which counties they're moving into but we will have that in the upcoming census data and we should be able to include that they'll definitely show that where where people are moving if when they leave cowan county and where they're coming from we'll have that tim lockett is asking about challenges finding workers how is the pandemic postpandemic change the playing field for us we probably are going to be able to hold on to some people for a while they're not going to shift people are concerned about moving and i think we're definitely going to pick people up tim people are buying space they don't want to be in a high density urban environment they don't want to be on the same heating and cooling air conditioning system as other individuals they they want to try to buy that space and that can certainly work for us tim brunson asking a great question about a recent numbers out about covet bankruptcies and that impact and uh and i think it's very good point we we should focus on on bankruptcies and those numbers tim and i i will get those in here that this one has actually been thinned out for this but we need to look at it criminal parts i've got you when we have the fall tax numbers for the city of oxford it's a great question greg check that hyperlink that's going to bounce you over to the alabama department of revenue and and you'll see the numbers and you can check by time period and i just checked a couple of days ago and they were not out for any of those cities that i didn't report for for the fall numbers so that's going to be an issue of the part of the chaos and the backlog that is happening with alabama department of revenue but i'm going to keep watching it and i look forward to having those numbers soon hopefully we're going to get them kim thanks next john hopper's gonna be up i'll be nearby and i'll i'll be looking at questions and come back in a few minutes trying to answer some more and um don's gonna tell us a little bit about what's going on i'm going to be brief today i'm going to talk a little bit about what's going on and what's happened over the last year it was a challenging year to to say the least uh we um we did have several expansions we um we had the opportunity just yesterday to work with the the trantham family they are with circle a manufacturing county commission thanks to the county commission they passed some tax abatements for that company plus million dollar investment plus about 75 new jobs that will will happen in alexandria these were some expansions that we announced last year with bae with iac automotive supplier bridgewater interiors as well as fab um the other thing that that we had the opportunity to do was continue to work with our existing industry and talk to them about um the prospects i'm going to tell you a little bit about a survey that we we conducted several times last year we continued to see prospects we continued to see uh requests for information we had the opportunity oddly enough to actually visit with several prospects that came came to town we had we had one group that there were five cars and we all drove from from downtown oxford out to our east of oga site and and all five of us finally it did make it so fortunately i didn't lose anyone but um but it was it was just an odd year when it came to that we did have a lot of zoom calls we had opportunities with consultants on a zoom platform as well um the good thing is with some of those prospects that we've either uh had had responses to or rfis from some of those responses we're still having follow-up questions with them they just haven't quite pulled the trigger we met with a group earlier this week even that was here on site and have some real potential with that we feel like the other thing we did during the during the pandemic we did have a couple of companies federal mogul and honeywell that both had announced that they were either closing or laying off significant last year we worked with the city of oxford we called lori denton spent an awful lot of time but she called all of our industries talked to them and said hey if we had an in-person if we had an in-person job fair would you participate they all signed up we were full within a day and um we were able to hope to have an in-person job fair for one of the few in the state we had almost 400 people that came in and visited probably 200 of those have found jobs now and so we're very very fortunate that we were able to we we worked with the ems there worked with oxford we pulled made sure that we were social distancing as much as possible it was a it was a good opportunity to for these companies to meet with people and start looking at hiring them the other thing i mentioned that we did too during the year we surveyed our our local industries just a short survey hey how are you doing tell us about your capacity tell us about your staffing we ask a few other questions but just to give you an idea they as far as a percent capacity about 75 percent of them were at 75 or more almost almost half stayed at at uh full capacity during during the process this is an average of several of our our surveys the staffing stayed at full staffing at about 80 percent of them so we were we were fortunate that they were still they were still looking for people they were still looking for you know certain qualified individuals but they were also maintaining most of their staffing as well the other thing we've done at the at the edc is we are in the process we've issued a contract local contractor to build some small spec buildings a cluster of three spec buildings at mcclellan we are uh there'll be a 15 000 square foot building there in the middle there'll be two 7 500 square foot buildings on the sides we feel like mcclellan does lend itself to some of our companies maybe that are moving out of our incubator which by the way we spent a lot of time and energy on that last year we finished a a renovation thanks to lucas gockle managing that for us as well the um that but we feel like at mcclellan we're going to see some smaller businesses and that's what we're looking at building there we um actually have already shown this i showed it last week just on the site uh just to just for a company that had the opportunity they were looking for a 10 to 15 000 square foot building was perfect the other thing we have done we just completed we had our we had a final inspection two weeks ago on our spec building out at mcclellan excuse me mcintosh it's the second spec building the you can almost see that building you can see the building when you're coming over the bypass up on the top of the hill that's a 36 feet eave height it is 60 000 square feet i uh we had the opportunity to show that we have one company that has asked us for a uh we worked on tuesday at our board meeting soon to actually give that company like i said it was it was a challenging year fortunately we had you know almost 200 new jobs announced uh 75 to almost 80 million dollars worth of investment uh from our existing industry and i continue to say that when an existing industry is is growing here that's the best compliment they can pay you um we always end with the we're near atlanta near birmingham near perfect and let me let me stop and say we don't take that lightly we do believe this is a great place for business to grow we think it's a great place for business to locate um some of the discussions we had just this week with one of our existing industries as we were meeting with the prospects they are our best sales people and they are the ones that know that this is a great place to live do business work and raise a family um we do believe that we're near perfect and we appreciate the opportunity that the chamber provides us to share a little bit trying to follow up on a few of the questions that have come in first tim lockett with the anderson star is asking about how many local businesses have closed permanently as a result of the pandemic and he's thinking particularly about restaurants him let's look at that we can try to find out through business licenses i think maybe we'll give us a hard count which you can get all right they're going to be available another way to look at it would be if there had been a significant drop in the number of members for the county county chamber of commerce and linda tells me that they're they're basically holding steady they're picking up some new members and and they're losing some but the total number is really not moved that much greg brown b.r williams mr brown as always good to see you good to hear from you greg is asking about the census numbers and when we expect to have those numbers out they've been delayed basically i think they're pushing everything back about four months greg but i have a couple of dates for you if you were to click on that link to the census bureau when you see the population numbers and do a google search i mean not a google search a search inside their website for important dates that's the search word important dates two of those dates you'll see are these april the 30th the census bureau is going to provide the numbers to the president and the president will get those first and then september the 30th we'll have another update and on that one we're going to have the numbers at the state level that have implications for congressional redistricts the district thing that word so those two days april the 30th and september the 30th the the the chamber was actively involved in the census numbers they had the complete count committee that worked the problem and and they feel good about that effort and the accuracy of that count they feel like they did a great job and especially given the situation thank you all for enjoying us joining us at this time in this medium we hope to be together face-to-face in a year from now if we can help in any way please let me know you can always reach me through linda the chamber of commerce or direct or directly through jacksonville state is m hearn h-e-a-r-n jsu.edu glad to help any way we can thank you