Can I Sign Kansas Banking Presentation

Can i industry sign banking kansas presentation free

good morning everyone i'm delighted to be here today it has been nine months since the pandemic first gained a foothold in u.s bringing it with it the sharpest downturn on record just as good recipes are crucial in preparing a good thanksgiving dinner the proper policy recipe will be important for economic recovery so today i will offer a current assessment of u.s economic conditions and also highlight the policy recipe for economic recovery going forward moving on to my first slide let me start with the key themes on my talk the u.s economy saw a strong rebound in q3 from the second quarter historical fall off however the recovery has been incredibly uneven as different sectors were hit by the virus very differently while some sectors have seen a full recovery demand still remain well below the pre-pandemic level for sectors that need intense in-person contact the current crisis is first and foremost a public health crisis how effectively we can contain a viral spread we are underpinning how fast the economy can gain a full recovery turning to fiscal policy the strength in overall rebound was supported by fiscal stimulus measures passed early this year which were timely targeted and unprecedented by historic standards however the earlier physical support is fading which is prolonging the recovery going forward effective health and fiscal policy responses will be essential to economic recovery with that let me dive into the details turning to the next slide u.s gdp rebounded in the third quarter the left chart shows that following the second quarter historical falloff in economic activity the real gdp in q3 increased at the annualized rate of 33 percent the fastest pace of a quarterly growth on record as impressive as this bounce back was the right chart shows the level of real gdp in q3 was deep lower than its pre-pandemic level by 3.5 percent these two charts highlight that u.s economy has seen a strong rebound so far yet east year has a long way to go before we see a full economic recovery turning to next page despite the quick rebound the headline numbers masks underline and even recovery across sectors as a pandemic hid different sectors very differently to put it into perspective i compared the current crisis to the great financial crisis the left chart shows that during great financial crisis retail sales declined across all categories at a somewhat gradual pace turning to a right chart however in the current crisis household spending has been incredibly uneven across categories the latest data shows that in september there remained significant gaps between different spending categories our provide i will provide more details in the wide dispersion in the next couple of slides turning to the next page in the recovery some sectors have come out ahead the left chart shows that sectors like a bicycle and the personal computers were little affected during a lockdown in the spring since then the demand has been rising at a faster pace than historic norm with many people working from home and exploring outdoor activities the right chart shows that the demand for other dual goods like furnitures and motor vehicles dropped by close to 20 to 30 percent during lockdown by the same thing the demand has arising well above its free pandemic level as people spend more time at home and also drive more and fly less overall these two charts highlight that some sectors in particular durable goods sectors have seen a rapid recovery turning to next page although some sectors have come has have come out ahead other sectors are lagging behind this is particularly relevant for sectors that provide a service and need intense in-person contact the left chart shows that food and dental services saw a shock decline of more than 50 during the lockdown since then both sectors have seen a partial recovery with consumers returning to restaurant bars and resuming their dental appointments however the demand remains below its pre-pandemic level as consumers continue to take precautionary measures the right chart shows that certain service sectors have barely seen any recovery live entertainment and the field activities essentially haunted during lockdown as demand vanished since then both sectors have not seen much improvement overall the wider dispersion across sectors is prevalent as a pandemic has had a distinct impact on different sectors turning to next page continue the increases in covert cases weight on service spending in particular the accommodations and the food service spending the green line shows a new covered cases on an inverted scale the blue line plus spending on accommodations and food services the four arrows show that the spending has tracked the covalent development very closely specifically i want to highlight that the spending remained flat during the second wave in june and july as a second error shown and also stored since mid september as a fourth error shows here we don't have more recent data on the spending yet but a very rapid spread of virus recently is likely to further depress the rebound in this category overall the spending in leisure and hospitality in is stagnant turning to next pay turn into next page the stagnation in spending on leisure and hospitality will weigh on employment growth as this sector has made the largest contribution to payroll gains so far the blue bar shows the jobs that have been recovered in each service sector between april and october while the green bars show the jobs yet to be recovered i would like to highlight a couple points first the sector of legion hospitality is a largest contributor to the job gains since april the blue bars showed that this sector has gained about 5 million jobs counting for close to half of overall drop gains second this sector still has a long way to go in order to return to the pandemic level with 2.7 million jobs yet to be recovered the slowdown in related consumption as shown in the previous chart will weigh on the job recovery in this category finally besides leisure and hospitality other sectors also have a long way to go for instance the sector information sector has barely recovered as a job losses concentrated in the movie industry this and the previous pages highlighted that the continued spread of virus will weigh on the labor market recovery next i will turn to the international perspective of the spread of a covet turning to the next page the second wave in europe will slow down the rebound in export activities the left chart shows that the first wave of covered cases picked in april in europe as european countries imposed lockdown measures the kovid cases declined and remained low in the summer since august however european countries have seen sharp increase in narcobit cases at the record high levels the covalent development in foreign countries has direct impact on u.s exports the right chart shows that goods exports and imports both declined sharply during the first wave with lockdowns in the summer both trade activities bounced back quickly but imports have recovered at the faster pace the exports with the second wave surge in europe export activities will slow down food so far i have highlighted that recovery path going forward will crucially depends on the containment of the spread of virus and the current crisis is the first and foremost a public health crisis next let me turn to fiscal policy turning to next page the quick rebound in economic activity that we have seen so far supported by timely unprecedented and targeted fiscal stimulus the left chart compares the care cares act which was passed early this year to the key fiscal manager taken following the 2008 financial crisis the american recovery and reinvestment act the boss showed the spending of those two bills as a share of gdp after the start of the recession i want to highlight the two points first the kiosk act was passed and implemented in a much shorter period of time with most of spending being front loaded in 2020 on the other hand the bill of ara was not passed until the second year after start of recession and the stimulus measure was spread over a couple of years second the fiscal measure taken this year is unprecedented in terms of scale and the spending counts for 80 of gdp why the spending of arra peaked at the 2.2 percent of gdp the riot charter highlights the kiosk act is more directly targeted to business and households compared to aira in particular it allocates close to 900 billion dollars to loans and grants to business sector which was absent in the previous measures in falling 2008 crisis on the other hand the arra mainly con consisting of tax costs and other spending overall fiscal measures that were passed early this year were timely unprecedented and targeted turning to next page those extraordinary fiscal measures supported the rebound economic activities the left charter shows unemployment benefit which is a weight which is 96 and december 2019 it is upward sloping implying that as unemployment rate increases more people apply for unemployment benefit and therefore the ui spending increases as well the blue solid line shows that eye prone rates increased sharply early this year for from a historical low of 3.6 in january to a historical high 14.7 in april during this period from january to april the increases in ui benefits largely followed the historic pattern as a solid blue line is quite close to clustered green dots after the passage of the chaos act the ui benefit increased tremendously in may and the blue line deviated significantly from the historic pattern the fiscal support stayed at elevated level until july but has been fading in more recent months the writer charter shows that the unprecedented physical stimulus has supported the rapid recovery the blue line shows that consumer spending per capita declined in march and april but they saw a v-shaped recovery in the summer this quick rebound was supported by sharp increases in ui benefit more recently ui benefits has declined with fading fiscal support and the consumer spending continues to recover but at a much slower pace overall early fiscal measures supported recovery but those supports are fading now turning to next page besides supporting the quick rebound in economic activities physical stimulus measures has also boosted personal savings this charter highlights the personal savings rate is currently at a level that is significantly higher than historic node with the fading fiscal support the question is whether people will dip into their savings to support their consumption in the near term turning to the next page based on the staff analysis at the kc fed we find that not all savings will support the near-term consumption in this chart i split savings into three categories typical savings in normal time show as in the yellow bars the orange bars show the savings associated with precautionary motives meaning consumers pull back from spending in response to possible lower future income instead people say more as a buffer this type of saving is unlikely to support near-term consumption finally the green bars show savings that are induced by how government transfers which in general are associated with higher spending in the near term the decomposition in 2020 shows that a combination of precautionary motives and gun the income transfers have kept the savings rate elevated particular more than half of excess savings was due to precautionary motives and is unlikely to be spent in the near term therefore despite a high savings rate the growth of a household consumption is likely to moderate turn into next page there's significant amount of uncertainties on the next round of fiscal stimulus which poses downside risk to the economic outlook the chart shows the wider range of fixed stimulus proposal from house democrats the treasury and the senate republicans before the presidential election the three bills have very different cost estimate ranging from 500 billion to 2 trillion and they also have very different spending priorities this page highlights significant uncertainty surrounding physical stimulus and the delayed physical support will prolong the recovery turn into the next page let me first summarize effective public health policy and targeted fiscal policy are essential to economic recovery going forward first the recovery has been incredibly uneven across sectors as a demand for sectors that require require intense in-person contact remain well below the pre-pandemic level and the continuous spread of virus pose significant downside risk to the economic outlook therefore effective public health policy is essential second the congress passed timely targeted and unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures earlier this year which supported a quick rebound in economic activity however those early fiscal supports are fading and the targeted fiscal stimulus going forward will be important in the near term the natural question will be with the massive fiscal stimulus measures should we worry about the rising government debt and that is a special topic i would like to discuss next turning to the next page recent fiscal measures that have benefited households and the business tremendously but they also have significantly deteriorated debt projections with that raised sustainability sustainability concerns how much debt is too much the conventional way of gauging fiscal risk is to look at a country's debt or gdp ratio in this special section i would like to emphasize that just looking at the debt gdp ratio itself is not sufficient instead both the debt of gdp ratio under the government's ability to service a debt will matter importantly a gun ability to service a debt will depends on its potential to raise tax revenue and the cut government expenditure in the future so let me dive into the details turning to the next page extraordinary fiscal measures that congress took earlier this year has significantly deteriorated that projection this chart shows that the congressional budget office currently projected federal government debt to rise to about a hundred percent of gdp in 2020 up from its projection of 80 meters one year ago it also expected that to reach close to 200 percent of gdp by 2050 turning to the next page given the rising governor debt now important question for policy maker is how much debt is too much people often look at the debt to gdp level and they try to gauge the fiscal risks but there is a missing pieces in these discussions which is gunned ability to service debt i will call it the fiscal limit each country face fiscal limit because government cannot indefinitely increase revenues by raising tax rate second the government face rising expenditures due to demographic changes just as a corporate debt they got the capacity to issue a service debt which depends on the future cash flow which is the difference between their tax revenue and expenditures if it's future cash flow i expect to drop this capacity to service debt will decline therefore the fiscal limit depends on future fiscal policy turn it to the next page each government faces a limit in raising tax revenue for economic or political reasons from the economic perspective tax changes people's incentive to work and invest even alexander hamilton wrote on that point in the federalist paper he wrote if duties are too high the lesser consumption the collection is eluded and the product of the to the treasury is not so great as when they're confined within improper and moderate bond the intuition is following if the household firms don't respond to tax changes then a higher tax rate always raise tax revenue however a higher tax rate makes people work less and invest less this chart illustrates the relationship between the tax rate and the tax revenue in general raising tax rate could increase revenue when the existing tax rate is relatively low and it will reduce revenue if the existing tax rate is already very high more broadly they may be limited to raise taxes due to political reasons so overall a government faces a limit in raising the revenues at some point coming to next page on the other hand u.s federal spending is projected right because of a social security and health care program many due to the asian society this mandatory spending as a share o gdp was below 5 in 1970 increased to about 12 percent in 2020 and its projective rise further to about 15 in 2050 the combination of the constraining raising tax revenue and the rising gun expenditures due to the asian society gives a rise to the fiscal limit so what are the fiscal numbers in u.s turn into the next page my research shows that data sustainability is in u.s is not a concern yet so before getting into a number let me first explain how to interpret this chart with uncertainty about future economic conditions the government the future cash flows are also uncertain therefore its ability to service debt also comes with some uncertainty this child says the probability of a government running into a debt sustainability issue increases with the debt of a gdp level now turning to numbers the blue line here shows that if the government contacts economic activity within a historical range and if it will adopt the reform to stabilize the mandatory spending as a share of gdp in the next 30 years then the blue line shows that the fiscal limit for u.s with government debt at 100 of gdp the probability for the u.s government run into a debt sustainability issue is essentially zero now turning to next page debt sustainability in the longer run will depend on future fiscal policy in particular if the government may be able to raise taxes beyond the historical levels in that case gun has a higher fiscal limit as shown in orange and line on the other hand if a government spending increase at a faster pace and the government cannot adopt the fiscal reform to stabilize the growth of its expenditure then it will lower the fiscal limit as shown in the green line in all three cases here the data sustainability is not a concern for the u.s federal government in the near term and and therefore the government should take targeted fiscal stimulus measures to support the recovery in the pandemic in the long run however data sustainability will depend on future fiscal policy specifically where the government could raise tax or cut it back on expenditures so that concludes my presentation i'll be happy to take any questions you may have hired well thank you for such an amazing presentation um i learned so much and this is very very um illuminating um so we do have some questions queued up in the q a um so i'll just kind of go through the order here um the first one um is from george richmond and his question is tourism and travel are important industries um so what is your current view on how they will recover and if passport renewal would be an important indicator uh sorry can you can repeat the question sure yeah um so he uh george richmond talks about how tourism and travel are important industries and he is asking um your views on how they might recover and if passport renewal would be an important indicator in that right i think passport renewal would be an indicator uh you know particularly for international travels and i think you know the vaccine the recent uh the very positive news on the back scene has been helped you know uh certainly received from the stock market in airlines and so i think ultimately you know how fast people will go back for the travel or you know hospitality services it really depends on how effectively we can contain the spread of the virus you know we have the uh vaccine you know probably hopefully already soon but then there is also issue about how many people are willing to take those vaccines how fast we can distribute those vaccines uh so there is still a lot of uncertainties but on the other hand i also hear that people um have been at the home for so long they are willing to make up their travels you know not only they're going to have their travels next year and they may be willing to make up the travel mr this year so that's uh i guess a good news for the for the sector yeah yeah absolutely thank you for that um and i just want to uh sort of piggyback off of something that you just said um and you know it's been it's been relatively recent within the last week or so that we've had several announcements about vaccines and you know being 90 effective 95 effective um how do announcements like that or what is your prediction for announcements like that um affecting the economy in the the near term so i think you know it certainly has a big impact on the stock market in terms of a reactive economic activity it may be more in the median term in a sense when the vaccine is actually distributed people you know hopefully the majority population is willing it's open to taking those vaccines and then would be effectively containing the spread in the very near term i think the impact is probably going to be more limited because uh you know as i just showed you know if the corporate cases continue to increase at the same time at a very fast pace it's going to contain you know people are going to take precautionary measures and it would probably are going to affect you know manufacturing activities as well because it's going to affect how many people have to probably take the testing and therefore affect the staffing as well from the firm perspective so i think in the near term there is a significant amount of downside risk and the vaccine probably is not going to be uh help a whole lot in the near term the way i seal it is like what kind of see where we are heading to where the vaccine is and we need some breach to get in there and so you know if we can contain the virus spread and also you know if there is additional fiscal support targeted physical support bring us through the bridge that will be very uh it's going to be very good news for the recovery um it's just we have significant uncertainty in terms of physical support at the moment yeah yeah yeah absolutely well thank you um so another question that we had and i'll actually take this one is uh if this presentation will be available offline and so um if you see in the chat i did put my email address which is chloe.davidson casey.frb.org um if you are interested in receiving this presentation uh feel free to email me and i will get it to you after after our meeting today um so the next question uh that i will go to is let's see um so latian um your thoughts on the stimulus being responsible for keeping the stock market not only strong but increasing um so i know you just talked a little bit about the stock market and the economy and that relation there but if you could just talk a little bit more about if the stimulus is responsible for keeping the stock market not only strong but also increasing yeah the stimulus package certainly had impact on the stock market um you know for one thing is that for instance the fiscal fiscal stimulus package that to the extent it could help in the household spending you know the consumption and it also helps that the firms avoid bankruptcy that probably raise the prospect of the um the gains from the stock market on the other hand from the monetary policy perspective we have had you know large amount of asset purchasing you know in the uh march and april we see the the market not just the stock market but in general liquidity was really dried out and the fed stepped in and really restored the um kind of liquidity function of that market so it would have it would pass partially going through the stock market to some extent uh for that function to work so uh i think you know you're absolutely right that stimulus has been not only keep the real activities going but they also uh contributed to the the stock market rising and of course you know with with the positive from vaccine news it also helps and uh yeah so i think that different factors probably contribute to that yeah yeah absolutely thank you for that uh let's see going through some of the other questions that we had um in the chat um one of them is from paul seward's um will the recovery be uneven amongst states based on their health care policy so is there some quote uh correlation between um recovery and the states based on the the policy the healthcare policy that's implemented um in each of the states absolutely so i did not have a charter here but you know um if you look at across you know geographic locations so for instance if i take ohio and texas as example so um texas was was a less hit than ohio in the very beginning so in q2 their data was coming stronger than ohio but then in the q3 taxes got really hit and therefore the q3 number is actually coming below the ohio and therefore the recovery has been lower slower than ohio so that is really one example to show that you know um just as an evilness cross sectors the unevenness across geographic locations is very much tied to the virus that you know for the sectors or the geographic locations that you are more hit by the virus and therefore the state government or local government may take some measures to contain that virus that certainly had a negative impact on the on the local economy yeah so that what i said you know the recipe number one is you know the virus contain of the writers that is that's that's the key yeah yeah absolutely uh well i see some questions here in the chat um about um oil prices and gas um being a huge part of the industry in oklahoma so one of the questions specifically is how much are current oil prices uh directly correlated with the pandemic response and what might be the projected lag on oil prices when the economy begins to open up right i um that's a that's a good question and the oil price you know the projection is that it's gonna gradually increase in you know with not only hopefully the u.s economy going back and also um the world economy you know like for instance china has been uh emerging faster than other economy and i heard anecdote evidence for instance that um the chinese economy because they also had a lot of fiscal stimulus there are some infrastructures the power project has restarted so for the companies that in us which export you know power related energy related uh infrastructures product to china has c increases so i think you know uh to the extent when when the viruses is contained because fundamentally i see that the economy u.s economy is is uh strong it's just a virus is contain those development and the hope is that with the policy measures fiscal policy measures monetary policy measures we can contain the long-run scaling effect that hopefully with a vaccine when the virus is contained that we can quickly rebound and that would help certainly would help the economic activities and would help the oil price for sure for sure yeah and also i see in the charting there is a question about the modern monitoring theory as a solution to fiscal policy so i could comment on that as well so in my fiscal analysis at the end that is um i take it as i'm not uh taking into i'm not i'm assuming that the u.s government debt would have to pay off their debt as uh the real debt so i'm not considering the scenario that inflation would be go really high that inflated away uh some of the better liabilities uh but historically you know what's really gonna um help if if if if the police make it is even we need to go down that path it's not inflation itself it has to be this inflation surprise in a sense is that if people expect inflation is gonna go very high that's gonna reflect their bond year and the death is not going to really help with government debt it's only in the inflation surprise that's going to help and so um so i don't think that's a very sustainable way like for the feds mandate we have a inflation target and we also have the maximum uh in employment so it's dual mandate so uh the currently inflation is running below our target so we are taking extraordinary measures to uh hopefully keep the inflation to the target over time as economy recovers but we certainly don't want inflation to run very high as we have learned from the historic uh episode as well so that that's my my personal thought on that yeah absolutely thank you for sharing um i am kind of coming through some of the questions and i am seeing one about the one of the last charts that showed federal debt as it related to the gdp um and there was a question as far as where is the u.s federal debt today as compared to gdp on the chart um so i can go ahead and pull the chart back up again if that would help but um it would be comfortable talking a little bit about that so yeah so is this question is in the chart maybe you do help me if i see the question yes um and i can repeat the question too it is in the q a feature um and the question is that the last chart shows a federal debt as it relates to gdp um which saying that that's not a concern for the u.s um but where is the u.s federal debt today compared as to gdp on this chart uh so yeah so the the horizontal axis here is showing the debt as a share of gdp so in a sense is that um if the if if the gdp is growing and if the debt is growing on the same path as a gdp even the nominal level may be still growing but if it's growing at the same pace as the gdp then in this charter here it would be the same same for instance 100 of the gdp ratio means that even gdp is growing at a three percent the next year and even the debt is growing also at three percent it would be still a hundred percent so i don't know whether that answers a question that's raised here okay thank you uh i think that was that was a great explanation um i am looking at a question to you in the chat um that talks a little bit about education and this one is from tracy langley um and tracy's is uh so she says you know some of your listeners are going to university next year and do you think that the school year in 2021 2022 um we'll be on campus or learning remotely which you know might be a a hard question to to predict out into the future but maybe you could talk a little bit about you know how policy impacts high education um or if you you know have any insights on on that topic yeah for sure i think you know the um you know the current the virus the situation is affecting the college and affecting other you know um in general like k-12 as well in general so i don't know about in the prospect whether you know the college will we open whether student could be all in person next year or not i do hope so um but i think you know as we learned you know as wonderful as technology is you know nothing can really replace in-person learning right so i'm sure that students are gonna learn a lot more in person and they have been started showing that it's not for the college student but they're showing from the elementary school the k-12 is that um this pandemic that they the the remote learning or some deficit in terms of how much they learn is going to have significant impact on the human capital going forward um and there is it's there is you know it's still very tentative but certainly people understand that it's an important issue and another thing related is actually you know as also relate to k to tail more probably is that you know with a lot of kids learning from home that affected how many people could go back to find a job and lower the women labor force participation rate that certainly is also an issue that um not only going to affect the firm's staffing but also could affect the women without who if they decide to uh stay out of labor force for some period of time they're going to have a long longer term scholarly effect so yeah i i'm i'm very simple effective to that you know it's a education you know it's affected very profoundly to young people and also to uh to people who have younger kids as well yeah yeah absolutely well thank you and i am seeing um another question we're really getting questions from you know a number of different uh fields and types of um different things and so one of the questions from dan king is saying um you know you show different types of stimulus between ui business taxes and other um is generally one type of stimulus more effective at impacting the economy in the short run right that's a really great question so um so the for the household for instance there are two major types of stimulus one is a stimulus check and the other is the ui benefit so what we the the staff analysis what do we find is that the um the stimulus check which we also had you know the bush uh stimulus heck as well it tends to be it's kind of broad based uh there is no income thresher to that most of those money goes went into the savings instead of people spending it so there is kind of things you know uh if you give people one dollar how likely they're going to spend that dollar or you know how big a portion they're going to spend so from that you know the stimulus check you know people tend to spend a smaller share out of that but on the ui on the other hand because you're giving the money more to the targeted people who are probably more in need of the cash they're spending they tend to spend a larger share of that money so in my chart i showed is that the consumption that bounced back in the summer it's really uh very much consistent with increasing ui benefit at the same time while the stimulus check actually was picked before that that is more consistent with really increasing savings rate but it's less so with consumption so you're absolutely right you know uh the targeted uh fiscal positive stimulus is going to be very important at this stage we don't want to get give the money to everyone we want to give the money to the people who most need it and to the business most need it i think yeah yeah absolutely okay well we are coming up on time and so i will say this might be our last question and i want to say thank you now to the audience this has been uh lots of really great thought-provoking questions here um unfortunately we will be able to get to all of them um but you know thank you for your questions and if you are interested in the slides um feel free to email me i'll put my email again in the chat and you can have the slides afterwards um so sort of our our closing questionation will be um it's gonna come from the chat from neil stanley um and the question is um the money for nothing concept that arises out of government programs um can you know dilute our understanding of principles of economics um economics is about product production and allocation of resources and consumption um so the question there is um you know what are your thoughts on the public's growing disconnection from concept that our consumption is limited by what we can produce yeah i think um that's a great question so i think the the idea here is that um we wanted to um to kind of keep the economy going when the pandemic at the earlier stage of a pandemic what our thought was from a policymaker's perspective is that if we could contain this pandemic we take lockdowns we give very uh you know uh extraordinary fiscal managers minor products measures that would carry us through but that was not uh not as smooth as we hoped you know the virus still continued and you know we cannot keep the economy locked down for a longer period of time so but the the the idea of having the fiscal stimulus is that you could keep the um so not only you know give the money to people people spend but also it allows the business to hire people because there is demand for their product therefore can they can produce therefore you know you can keep the economy going on what we are worried about is you know there is a cut off you you know the demand goes down and you know firms could not produce and therefore you know it's going down and we drag on right so that is what we want to avoid but you are absolutely right is that you know if you pump so much money into the the economy and you actually only needs to inflation in the sense you don't really get your economy produced produced more or growing faster it's just coming with money for information then it's not our goal right it's like okay if you produce one pie but if you just pump up more money you still have only one pie it only raise the price for that pie right the hope is that when you pump more money into the economy at least at this stage we think that if it's targeted fiscal policy that could make the pie bigger because you know more firms could make the pie and the therefore it's beneficial for the economy but i'm sympathetic to your concern and uh you know that's definitely what i'm saying you know it's talkative physical policy and we do in the long run you know we have to consider about our physical sustainability concerns yes yes absolutely well thank you so much patient um for such an economic presentation today a great uh outlook and also for answering uh so many of the questions that our our viewers had if everyone would like to give her a virtual round of applause um through comments in the chat since we can't see or hear you uh feel free to go ahead and put those in the chat and say thank you for for your time today