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good afternoon and welcome to the bureau of business webinar for May 2018 it'll be on the topic of Lincoln business indicators my name is Eric Thompson I'm the director of the Bureau of business research and we're bringing the webinar to you today it's based on some research that the bureau does with the lincoln partnership for economic development tracking progress in lincoln's economy before I get started with my PowerPoint presentation I do want to mention a few things first of all a few features of this webinar we have a chat window which you can access by hovering over your bar which should be on the bottom part of your screen in the same place you can also access a question and answer window so you can anytime during the webinar you can type in your answer or type in your question and we'll be answering the webinar questions at the end after the PowerPoint presentation you can also wait till the end and ask a question then the last feature I'll mention is we're gonna have two polling questions during the webinar to get some to get the audience's thoughts on certain issues and topics that we'll be covering in the webinar today and we'll get to those answers then a little later in the webinar so I'm gonna go ahead and get started again this Bureau of Business Research is developed with the Lincoln partnership for economic development in particular we developed quarterly and an annual business indicators report for the Lincoln partnership and what we're going to talk about in this webinar is the findings of our last quarterly business indicators report and then we're also going to tell you about select findings from our recently completed annual business indicators report that fuller reports can be released next week at the economic development breakfast of the Lincoln partnership for economic development so let me go ahead and proceed here and start talking about some of the key findings from our last quarterly business indicators report which was completed earlier this year but covered data from the fourth quarter of 2017 what we found in that quarterly business indicators was that the US economy which for quite some time has been lagging the Lincoln economy the US economy appears to be catching up to the ongoing robust Lincoln area economy stronger job growth nationally following unemployment rates nationally and the Lincoln economy has been benefitting from relative economic strength in recent years that's continued but the good news is the rest of the country seems to be catching up obviously that's good news a lot of us have relatives and friends all over the country good to see the economy is doing well elsewhere and then ultimately obviously it's good for the Lincoln economy and the Nebraska economy if the economy is strong elsewhere in the United States as well that said I do note that then we did note in the quarterly business indicators report that Lincoln maintains a much lower unemployment rate than the United States and these were seasonally unadjusted rates that we reported on in our quarterly business indicators report three point nine percent in October and November in the nation and right around two percent here in Lincoln and we we know that in April this year the US unemployment rate on a seasonally adjusted basis was also at three point nine percent so I think it's fair to say that the US unemployment rate has has fallen now and is only about two percent higher than Lincoln's unemployment rate with the u.s. being at four percent Lincoln being at two percent now what I would say about this is I think this data indicates that both the u.s. and Lincoln economy are at full employment yeah it's just that the the natural unemployment rate the full employment unemployment rate is significantly lower in Lincoln than it is nationally we have a lot more college graduates in our workforce folks in Lincoln have much higher labor force participation rates Lincoln Heights just tend to have lower unemployment rates in general than around the nation so I think the good news is we have a blower natural unemployment rate than the nation and you should not interpret our two percent rate to suggest that labor is harder to find in Lincoln than it is around the country I would say both the country and Lincoln are at their natural unemployment rates okay time for our first poll question what was Lingus Lincoln's strongest industry during the last year 2017 we're going to measure this with employment growth so in a way we're asking excuse me of these three industries which had the fastest unemployment growth between 2016 and 2017 here in Lincoln so go ahead and give us your give us your response we'll show the answer this question a little bit later in the webinar several other key findings from the fourth-quarter quarterly business indicators report another is that we found that residential building permits are actually lower despite the low unemployment rate and some of the progress I've talked about in Lincoln's economy the residential verdict building permits issued during the fourth quarter of 2017 were actually a little lower than 2016 will present some data on that in a minute but taxable sales were higher in Lincoln in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared to 2016 so let's look at the building permit data for all of 2017 in all 2016 you can see there were periods during 2017 where Lincoln's building permits were residential building permits were up compared to 2016 at the beginning of the year briefly in the middle of the year but by the fourth quarter the last three months 2017 rates were lower than 2016 rates now I don't think that's all bad I think what it suggests is the very strong building permit demand for rentals and apartments in 2016 has fallen off a little in 2017 we still a decent building permit activity this year but we might be seeing the beginning of the mix of building permits changing in Lincoln where we start to go a little bit more towards single-family home building permits and a little bit away from apartment permits taxable sales is another interesting development you can see throughout the year the blue line 2017 was quite close to the Green Line 2016 monthly taxable sales but towards the end of the year we didn't have you see that taxable sales were a little bit higher in 2017 2016 so that suggests growth and retail activity and so forth here in the Lincoln area between the fourth quarter of 2016 and the fourth quarter of 2017 well let's look at the at the first the results that pertinent to the first poll question we were looking at what's the fastest growing industry we had three choices to choose from construction manufacturing insurance what were the growth rates in the various Lincoln industries between 2016 and 2017 well the growing industries are the fastest growing industries in terms of employment we're construction professional scientific and technical services and other financial services which is primarily banking so you can see the answer the poll question was construction growing almost 6 percent in terms of employment growth between calendar to year 2016 and calendar year 2017 here in Lincoln so construction was strong in a majority of you had selected construction rather than manufacturing insurance so good job with your answers they're professional scientific and technical services was also growing quite rapidly in terms of employment that's a very important development this sector includes a lot of high wage employment information technology is by and large and professional scientific and technical services architects and engineers consultants lawyers a-hole accountants a whole variety of college-educated and post college-educated workers are captured in the professional scientific and technical services industry so in that industry grows you're talking about a lot of higher wage employment growth and I'll show you some data later that also shows that this is really a rapidly growing industry around the country so if Lincoln can really expand its employment in this sector and continue to do it as it did in 2017 I think it could be a very positive development for our city's economy banking as represented by other financial services was also a growing industry now there were some industries that lost jobs or were stable between 2016-17 matt retail trade did lose some employment during the year that's a sector where Lincoln is has gained employment over the last decade but perhaps giving up a little of that back in 2017 and of course could partly be related to the growth in online sales and so forth here in Lincoln but perhaps a bit of a surprising result when you think about all the store stores that are being built and opened up in Lincoln in the recent year manufacturing did lose a bit of employment in 2017 compared to 2016 and that to some extent is part of an ongoing trend in the manufacturing industry where because of high and growing productivity employment doesn't necessarily grow even if the industry is growing overall lastly healthcare and I think this was a very interesting result healthcare as a whole did not add any jobs in the Lincoln metropolitan area between 2016 and 2017 that's an unusual development usually this is a sector that adds quite a few new jobs up to a thousand new jobs on a yearly basis so I think this result suggests some changes that are going on in the healthcare industry a lot of private sector employers are requiring their workers to have insurance with higher co-pays with higher deductibles that's putting more pressure on health care providers as their customers start being a lot more fickle about their health care spending so be interesting to see if that development continues in future years okay now I want to go ahead and focus more on some selected results from our annual business indicators report which looks at the lincoln economy over the last decade before I do that I do want to ask our second poll question what were the long-run trends and taxable sales in Lincoln over the last decade you saw they were up between 2016 and 17 but now we're talking about a decade 2007 before the Great Recession or it just does the Great Recession was coming on to 2017 did taxable sales grow faster in Lincoln than the u.s. at a similar rate and Lincoln in the US or slower in winkin than the United States okay think about your answer go ahead and answer and we'll get we'll get to we'll have that information for you a little bit later in the webinar the first a few key results from our annual business indicators report first of all I think one thing you really notice if you look at Lincoln's economy over the last decade is that Lincoln benefits from a diverse economy a lot of potential sources of job growth of economic growth a lot of good ongoing economic development activities that's helping our economy as well but it must be said also that just underlying population growth is a big positive for economic expansion here in Lincoln it's definitely one of the things that underpins economic expansion here in Lincoln I think we do get a lot of population growth because of the job opportunities in Lincoln but it's also true that other factors that caused our population to grow are probably encouraging job growth in Lincoln as well it's working in both directions you really see it in the population numbers so over the last decade 2007 to 2017 Lincoln's population grew 14% over a 10-year period compared to just 8% nationally so our population is growing significantly faster than the nation's almost twice as fast here's a chart that provides that same information you see Lincoln's 14% population growth over that decade the u.s. around 8% interestingly Nebraska as a whole is also around 8% so I know we worry a lot about Nebraska about brain drain and so forth and losing population but actually over the last decade the state as a whole has added population at roughly the same rate as the nation so we haven't been falling behind during this 10-year period at least not very much although as this figure suggests a lot of the population growth that is occurring is happening at urban Nebraska I think we see a similar a similar bar if we had Omaha and there that Omaha's growing quite fast as well okay so Lincoln hours of doing I was linking having this 14% on a 14% population growth well I think the key to our success is Lincoln has positive as positive trends in all three components of population growth so often population growth is broken into three components natural population growth births minus deaths domestic migration state the state migration or city the city migration you know how many people are moving from Lincoln to other cities relative to how many people are moving from other cities and towns into Lincoln and then lastly international migration how many international migrants are settling in your metropolitan area Lincoln as a young city and therefore has pretty strong natural population growth even if there's no one moving in or moving out Lincoln would add a lot of people because there's a lot of children a lot of births and the number of births each year significantly exceeds the number of deaths so that's underpinning our growth right there secondly despite Nebraska's tendency to lose people on net to other states the city of Lincoln or the Lincoln metropolitan area actually has has a small but several hundred positive gain of population when you think about migration between other places in the US we do pretty well in terms of people moving into Lincoln from out of state versus Lincoln Heights moving out of state but whatever really do well is that Lincoln tends to attract people from the smaller towns and cities in Nebraska so Lincoln in terms of just domestic migration within the United States gains more people and it loses lastly Lincoln attracts a lot of international immigrants maybe that's partly due to the university it's also partly due our robust economy immigrants who are focused on work tend to be especially sensitive in their moment and their location choices of moving to where the job opportunities are now why does Lincoln attract people I think there's at least three reasons for that in terms of our domestic migration obviously Lincoln has many colleges and universities sometimes people come here for schooling they end up staying a lot of people from around Nebraska have moved to Nebraska moved to Lincoln over the last thirty years often we see that when younger people move here their parents might move here two decades later when their parents retire they want to be near the grandchildren there's good health care services here in Lincoln so I think we get some of that senior migration in the Lincoln as well and then obviously the job opportunities available Lincoln so I think that positive population growth is here to stay sure it benefits from economic development and job growth in Lincoln but it has an independent aspect to it as well that underpins our city's economic growth so here's our not every detail of our population of forecast but the bottom line is we think population growth will be between 1 and 1.3 percent per year over the next decade in the Lincoln metropolitan area and just like we saw that nice bar here for 2007 to 2017 we think we'll see a similar looking bar perhaps a little shorter with a similar looking bar from 2017 to 2022 on the road now that is sort of one area of real strength for the Lincoln economy area we have some areas of weakness or areas where there's a bit of room for improvement I'll just mention two of those briefly as well taxable sales so I'm kind of hinting I guess at the result of the first poll question and producer services those professional scientific and technical services we had great trends between 2016 and 2017 last year but one were the trends over the last decade let's look at some of these results and as we look at the taxable sales trends it will also answer our second poll question we can see that poll respondents who are fairly evenly divided with a third expecting that taxable sales grew faster in Lincoln than the u.s. a little more than a third saying they were similar and I guess closer to a fifth saying they were slower in Lincoln than the u.s. that last group I believe is correct here you see the cumulati e growth and it's a big complicated term non motor vehicle taxable sales that means all the taxable sales except vehicles because that the vehicle revenue is purposed sales tax revenues purpose for Road department of roads rather than general revenue so that's why it's kept separately anyway looking at non motor vehicle taxable sales you can see the lincoln only grew about 13% over the decade actually a little less than population growth and less than the rate of inflation which was around 18 percent humility during this period so that stands in contrast to Nebraska in the US which were both up around 25 to 30 percent so Lincoln had much slower growth in taxable sales and that is the answer to our poll question and one kind of mystery about the Lincoln economy a good job growth over the decade we had good population growth we've had some expansion of retail activity but it hasn't translated into rapidly growing taxable sales here's our results for producer services remember we had done so well between 2016 and 17 but if you look at the whole decade we're up only eight point four three percent in these high-paying jobs that employ a lot of college and post college graduates that's a good rate of growth that's similar to our overall rate of employment growth over the decade and the lincoln metropolitan area it's nothing to be ashamed of but it does lag the u.s. so one of the areas of strengths in the US economy over the last decade has been the rapid job growth in these high wage professional scientific and technical services we only had about half as much growth here in lincoln so if we can if we can change that in the next decade if we can match or exceed the US and the terms of the growth in these highways jobs i think it would be a huge benefit for lincoln's economy in the next decade well those were the high points that i wanted to make or key points I wanted to make select points from our annual business indicators reports will be coming out x thursday and at this point i'd like to answer any questions that come up thank you again for joining our webinar here this afternoon and we'll have an announcement about our next webinar here in a moment so what what questions have we had so far is it possible to receive and obtain a print of the screens and slides for this presentation yes it is we will we will make those available to the webinar participants why would taxable sales be lagging in Lincoln when the rest of the economy is doing well well one possible explanation is changes in the construction industry so one source of taxable sales is construction materials as you may recall Lincoln had a a booming residential construction sector especially a lot of single-family homes in the middle of the last decade that industry is doing well again but I'd say it's more of a moderate growth now sustainable long run growth compared to the boom that we saw last decade and so that might be growing a little bit more slowly another reason is you know income growth Lincoln is a young city a big large young population of growing young population and you know on average younger people are the time in their lives where they're still building their annual income they're still raising their wages and so there might be limited slower growth in taxable sales and personal income if your population is getting younger ok another question any theories as to why tax little grouse sales growth was so much less than in the u.s. you know again I'll refer to the answer I just gave to the previous question I don't think it's a it's a it's a matter of Lincoln's retail sector there or entertainment sector not growing it I think all of us who flits here over the last decade know that it's growing at a nice clip with a lot more options and opportunities over the last decade I think it's related to the income growth that we've experienced as our population and employment have expanded what effect do you see the startup and tech ecosystem having over the next few years well I think that startup and tech ecosystem is an awful awfully large and important part of that professional scientific and technical services industry that I talked about a few times during the webinar big part of the growth of that I think the last year has been growth of our information technology sector here in Lincoln so if to startup and specially tech companies that the ecosystem continues to expand as it has the last few years if if other parts of business professional scientific and technical services as architecture and engineering firms legal firms consulting firms that they continue to expand then I think that'll be very positive both for economic growth in Lincoln but also raising those incomes raising that taxable sales as well hit the coming year why is manufacturing growth lagging and linkit when it seems to be growing in Nebraska I think Lincoln is participating in the growth of the Nebraska manufacturing sector some of the growth in that sector statewide in recent years has been related to food processing with the expansion of food processing plants around the country perhaps there's been less of that in Lincoln Nebraska cities Lincoln and Omaha and therefore we haven't quite seen the girl the growth or maybe there's been a bit of a lag between the Lincoln and Omaha manufacturing actors and the statewide manufacturing sector but you have to remember with those employment numbers because of productivity growth and manufacturing employment may decline even in the year when the manufacturing industry itself is expanding and so that that's something to keep in mind when you look at employment trends in manufacturing but a good group of questions are there any others there do not appear to be at this time feel free to to follow up with the bureau if you have any other questions I'll mention our next our next webinar coming up here on the 8th of June this is also a Friday it will be our Nebraska economic forecast which the Bureau produces with the other members of Nebraska Business forecast Council so look forward to presenting that on June 8th at noon and please join us if your schedule I was on that date as well and of course that'll be a three year forecast of employment income by industry taxable sales for Nebraska by detailed in history and here's how you can follow us on social media we do release monthly and other periodic reports about the Nebraska economy and you can see those results here note one more question are the employment data from the quarterly census of employment and wages those employment data which we showed for all periods were we're from the CES but they were revised data after quarterly census of employment wages data are used to revise the CES data so in that sense they reflect the quarterly census of employment wages but no it's it's the CES data series from the US and Nebraska Department of Labor thank you again