Sign Oregon Banking Forbearance Agreement Easy

Can i industry sign banking oregon forbearance agreement

today we're going to talk about how the forbearance and foreclosure fallacy will play out through 2021 and beyond welcome to housing bubble 2.0 news of the week or as i like to call it another episode of as the housing market turns randy patrick here putting the realism back in real estate today is the 18th of january we're past the halfway point a lot of stuff happening this week i'm sure everyone's prepared for who knows what but as i always say regardless of what goes on um you know the housing market still will churn along and do its own thing so today is going to be kind of interesting i want to go over some year-end stats and some predictions for the future but first of all if you're not already a subscriber to my channel if you could please smash that subscriber button and help my channel grow i would really appreciate that so thank you very much okay so i mentioned the word fallacy so basically what is a fallacy it's a mistaken belief especially one based on unsound arguments or if we look a little different a little deeper it's you know we look at the definition here involved or otherwise faulty reasoning in the construction of an argument and a fallacious argument may be deceptive by appearing to be better than it really is some fallacies are committed intentionally to manipulate or persuade by deception while others are committed unintentionally due to carelessness or ignorance so i think we have a little bit of both going on here with respect to the housing market clearly there's narratives at play you can even say i have my own narrative as well too but i hope to that my narrative is based on facts and figures as opposed to hoping and praying as to what's going to happen in the future so we know where things are at right what do you you know we talk about housing prices lack of inventory low interest rates so what's going to happen in the new year so what we're talking about today it really is sort of a year-end foreclosure um we'll call it synopsis so the q4 foreclosure information was produced by adam data solutions so we're going to see you know you're probably going to see lots of articles on this out there but ultimately it's the foreclosure activity drops in 2020 as the backlog builds up so you can see that nice blue line there and you can see you know the new the blue line was really big in you know 2007 8 9 sort of peaking at 10 11 and or 2010 and dropping its way down to where we are in 2020 now the unique thing about 2020 is it's low clearly but why is it low it's because we have moratoriums going on now moratoria various moratoriums plural singular however you want to say it uh in different states different counties different locations different loan segments you know fha loans different you know cdc moratorium things like that so the market is being strangled it's being choked uh we have less distressed properties hitting the marketplace or or did hit the marketplace in 2020 and now we see a post housing crisis low so i'm clear or i'm i know that i'm sure other websites other news reporting will go on saying look at the housing markets great our foreclosures are pretty much gone away everything is good but they're not factoring in the into the into the fact that you know we've got a lot of stuff that's going to happen this year this year it's going to start to unload and it's going to open up and we're already seeing that now so just wanting to be clear on all that and set the stage for i think with you know what's going to happen in 2021 obviously we look at forbearance declining rate of forbearance improvements set up larger unknown so you know this is the thing with forbearance is that you know we've had a lot of people roughly six million people have been in a forbearance program we have roughly according to this is the volume of january 5th i couldn't find anything quick enough to put on there so it's it as i always say ebbs are flows um on a weekly basis but we're at that two point seven five three on 2.8 million homes in forbearance properties mortgages and forbearance homeowners and forbearance and it's been pretty consistent that seems to be the level where we're hovering around we also know that there is about one to one to 1.2 million delinquent mortgages in various stages of delinquency all the way to foreclosure auction status that are not under any forbearance we'll call it program here offered by any lender or government karazak whatever so we're looking at 2.75 million 2.8 million plus about 1.1 1.2 million not under any program that's about almost 4 million homes that are kind of in a distressed situation that's a lot of homes if those homes come on the marketplace that's going to make a difference in the ability for us to purchase properties and to have price reductions and just to have more access to more property simple as that so you know it's one of those things that is if this is a cycle it's a natural progression and clearly you know people don't want to talk about it or they want to downplay what's going on i get it so the interesting thing here is the fact that the declining rate of improvement implies that those who were able to absorb the shock of the pandemic and back on their feet may have already done so said a black knight economist here and this is from you know this information typically is from black knight financial that's the usually the mortgage and data source that a lot of the people are looking to for this forbearance information the rising sheriff extensions versus removal suggests that those who remain in forbearance are in need of help and may require the full 12 month allotted to them under the current pandemic rate assistance it also increases the number of for homeowners who remain in plans when the first wave of 12-month cutoffs come to the end of march setting up a larger unknown for how it will impact both the mortgage and housing markets so that's the whole point here so forbearance really is a 12-month program once your forbearance is over and you're only allowed to have a forbearance plan for 12 months then it kind of you know you really gotta hit the pavement here running so are you able to get back on your mortgage payments and start paying well if you can then they're gonna manipulate what you owed over the past 12 months and put the back of the loan or whatever they stated which we're still not 100 sure that's all going to happen yet well that's what they're talking about but the whole point though is that you have to get back on making payments if you can't make your payments on your mortgage plan after your forbearance you know deal is over guess what you're going to fall into a distress loss mitigation bucket and they're going to have to deal with you a different way can you do a loan modification if that doesn't work then you know what you're going to fall into a foreclosure bucket so really this is you know where we are with respect to lack of unemployment bad economy lack of stimulus money the whole bit people are in a precarious situation clearly everyone must realize that unemployment insurance stimulus money whatever you're getting from the government is not true income and won't be calculated or even considered when you're looking at things like doing loan modification or things like that so that's where this is going to kind of break down past due borrowers will likely need further government intervention when the cares act expires as all services in order to avoid a title of a foreclosure so look what they said there avoid a tidal wave of foreclosure so it's gonna happen it's coming yes we're going to have you know controls constraints slow downs whatever to try to avoid the tidal weight but in the end it's kind of inevitable and if you know if my basic conservative numbers of four million people exposed here you know i and one thing i want to mention about forbearance too and i said this again and it's it's talked about discussed it's in news articles and whatever so please understand that i'm not making this stuff up everything i show you is is live information the internet now uh the 80 of the people who are currently in forbearance have already gone through one forbearance program iteration and had to re-up again so that's the situation we're in so clearly if you can get out of forbearance and start paying out paying your mortgage and get onto a loan mod or something you do it but if you can't you can't and that's the point where the majority of people who are in forbearance are are becoming more and more seriously delinquent and that is problematic so this is where we're going with all this now atom data solutions puts out their foreclosure activity uh for the f they do about on a quarterly basis so we can see this dropped to a 16 year low in 2020 so let's not i'll jump for joy because there's reason so ultimately it says the atom data solutions released its year-end 2020 u.s foreclosure market report which shows foreclosure filings default notices scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were reported on 214 000 properties in 2020 down 57 percent from from 2019 and down 93 from a peak of nearly 2.9 million in 2010 this lowest level since it's been tracking in 2005. so yes if we take a look at this graph here we can see you know where it started in 2005 we can see where it peaked in 2009 and 10 and where we are at the right hand side so clearly the moratoriums the lenders were not processing foreclosures we're not foreclosing on people uh based on loan uh profiles and also a lot of lenders who maybe don't fall under some of these cares acts they're just being good people and not pursuing foreclosure auctions and finding foreclosures because that's what they were doing good public relations but things are changing now and we're starting to see some movement uh in this so we you know 2021 is where we start and we'll see things pick up mark my words here guys all right let's take a look at the next slide here so here it is a little bit blown up so we can see that you know when you take a look at you know the 2021 quarter um you know that's nothing compared to what it was the previous year the previous year the previous year so we can see that things were leveling off a little bit come 2017. now again you have to take a look at stuff and go well we had a lot more equity in 2017 so there is some um we'll call it acknowledgement on my part that yes if you have equity and also depend on where you live in the country some locations like west coast or northeast may have a lot of equity compared to what's owed if you're in foreclosure so you could sell pay off your mortgage and move on other locations across the country not so much equity so it depends on where you where you're at but when i talk about the fallacies the fallacy is the fact that what's been spoken about the past few weeks or a couple months is that we're not going to have any issues because you know the lenders will have programs and help all people in forbearance and if you are facing an imminent foreclosure you're going to have equity and you're going to be able to sell and you're going to move on and things will be great well you know that's that's again going to that whole blanket conversation where we don't know if that's going to happen or not yes there's trillions of equity that have been gained over the past you know a few years you know realize that every every month you don't pay on your situation and you're facing foreclosure you're chipping away at that equity and there could be things that you know you're not considering i don't and also uh no one's just gonna pay top market value to help you out when you've got two weeks to go before before your foreclosure sale so you're not going to tap into all that equity so just you know i think that's where people realize that they have this false sense of security that i've got equity and really they may have equity but things may change and it may not play out how they feel it's going to play out as they approach an imminent foreclosure sale date which will be increasing so if you look at the first paragraph the government's moratorium have effectively stopped foreclosure activity on everything but vacant and abandoned homes so we are seeing homes that are going to foreclosure but as they say it's going to be vacant abandoned properties because there's no point keeping those out of foreclosure process why not get rid of those which is true there is a backlog backlog of foreclosures building up loans that were in foreclosure prior to the moratorium loans that would have defaulted under normal circumstances and loans whose borrowers are in financial distress do the pandemic i said the vp of um realty track while slightly it's still highly unlikely we'll send their way before closure like the one we had during the great recession we really won't know how big the backlog is until after the government programs expire well we'll talk about that in a second here but realize look bank repossessions decreased 95 percent from the peak so yeah when we go to that graph and we look at the peak which was you know 2.7 2.9 million foreclosures going on at that time frame on like that's on an annual basis so clearly we're down from the peak and we're down from the peak because we're not moving properties because the moratorium so as much as that's you know that's real numbers there's reasons to be behind that and i want to make sure everyone understands that so the narrative really can't be that the life is good in the real estate world there there will be problems the problems are coming the problems are actually arriving right now and you know we got to be aware of this type of stuff so foreclosure starts at new record low nationwide idaho only stayed to see an annual increase so yes lenders started the foreclosure process in only 131 000 properties in 2020 down 61 from the previous year and of course down 94 for a peak back in 2009. so if we keep looking at the peak of the last housing crisis so i guess what we're trying to do here what and i'm not you know poo pooing on atom data solutions here because quite frankly they're one of the only groups that are talking about this so you know i do i do appreciate them releasing this data and i'm i'm pro them as a company to be quite honest with you um but you still have to spin it so we're afraid to talk about how bad things are we still have to spin it so why do they have to so yeah we're down 61 from from last year great but we're down 94 from the peak back in in the last housing crisis so the underlying sentiment here is hey guys don't worry we're not as bad as the last housing crisis so yeah we got some problems that were not as bad as the last housing crisis so that's kind of what's being spun here and it is what it is right if you look at you know states that saw declines in the foreclosure starts from last year included oregon down 79 percent kansas down 77 percent arkansas 77 percent nevada down 71 percent and massachusetts is down 70 because why you know and the thought process is why started if we can't finish it we're just wasting time or spinning our wheels also many of of certain locations the court systems were slowed down the county courthouses are closed you can't go visit there everything is everyone's working remote they're they're downsizing their staff so i can tell you that especially down here you know we didn't see a lot of stuff moving that fast because it just wasn't moving and it didn't make sense so that's kind of the situation now counter to the trend uh idaho saw a slight uptick four percent from last year in foreclosure filings and when we start looking at metro locations we're seeing you know jacksonville down 74 in florida vegas down 74 percent washington dc down 72 percent memphis tennessee down 72 percent in orlando down 71 percent well for the florida stuff i know exactly where the numbers are so yeah they have decreased you know i look at tampa tampa had about a thousand foreclosure filings um for well the tampa area uh at least hillsborough county where i am for the year which is which is normally they're around 3 500 so you know we're down significantly just because letters aren't processing courts aren't moving attorneys aren't moving that fast as well either so we all my hole point here is take this with a grain of salt delaware new jersey illinois post top state foreclosure rates in 2020 so there still are our locations that are filing we've got delaware jersey illinois maryland and south carolina were had some of the highest foreclosure rates as a percentage of housing units and um rounding out the top 10 states for florida connecticut ohio georgia and indiana pretty much most of the stuff that i see there was just like the last housing crisis with respect to maybe indiana maybe it was not up there and we're not seeing or in arizona but this is where you know we're seeing a pickup as well too so that's what's going on in certain locations uh metro areas with higher than a million you know we had a high rate where cleveland chicago baltimore philadelphia riverside california so that's kind of the same as it was back in the last housing crisis as well too so like i always say no surprises now average time to foreclosure actually increases so we were actually seeing a decrease in foreclosure timelines and why i say that is you know i'm i do a lot of research on this and the lenders want to move property so if you're in foreclosure you know they were actually you know moving faster now to foreclose on some properties because it doesn't make sense for them to hold on to it for various reasons let's dispose of it get it sold at the auction get our money off to the race as we go with low inventory and the a lot on both the investment side the retail side many investors are buying at the foreclosure auction so we were seeing those time frames actually speed up but now of course we've seen a little bit of an increase in the past couple quarters just because of the delays from the pandemic and the courts etc so no doubt about it the average days of to foreclose across the nation and q4 was 857 days so you have two types of states we have what we call the trustee states which tend to foreclose faster once they issue a notice of default you have the judicial states which take usually a lot more time when they uh typically send out what's called the notice of you know foreclosure filing liz pendan's et cetera so and i always joke with this liz pendans is not a lady who works downtown at the courthouse all right liz pendan's his lattice for notice latin for notice of litigation as far as i know so there you go so realize there's some changes here now top ten zip codes or foreclosure files are on the rise so what i've learned with adam data solutions is that if i jump on the first article the next day they post um some more details so i i usually wait a day now so this is kind of interesting so what we're seeing now is just the fact that um they've got some some top 10 states here so if you take a look at you know what's going on this is just a little addition information to their report they're basically saying hey you know um they dig deeper into the data um that some us zip codes are showing increases in in filings to the point where you know they got the top 10 zip codes and they're increasing 210 percent um you know 177 percent 164 you know 125 83 78 so these zip codes are increasing from the year over year and clearly you know the increases are going to look big when the numbers are smaller so when there's a big delta between the numbers so if we go to what we call a top 10 zip codes you've got a zip code in looks like manteca california big time we've got tracy california college station texas stockton california another zip code in stockton california walla walla washington stockton california savannah georgia durham north carolina so these are the locations that we're jumping now when you take a look at the bottom legend you know that's just foreclosure filing so it's not like they were huge you know we're talking you know you know 45 filings for stockton in that zip code well it is zip code based so of course it doesn't represent the entire city or county but it's interesting to see that californian locations are picking up stockton locations got three the top zip codes um in there and i know stockton really had a hard time the last housing crisis so what we're going to see is that every month we're going to have the different data sets that are coming out going hey a little bit of ebb and flow here hey we had an uptick here a little decrease there but we're going to see kind of a generic uptick in stuff as 2021 rolls around i guess that's the point so that's a good thing for not great for the homeowners but it's a good thing that if stuff is moving you're starting to move that's going to give more options for for home purchasing on both the first on primary on the investor level and hopefully a lot of those homes will will come out to the retail marketplace as additional inventory because we know we need that and there's no there's no um hiding that fact so this is the point to all this and you know and what is my point well um i i showed this the last sl video that we talked on auction.com so you know one of the um the comment on the first article from the dude he's the evp at um realty track which is owned by atom data solutions so auction.com and out of data solutions they're all kind of they're all related you know adam owns auction.com and um realty track so they have the information um that goes on here so i've been on a couple webinars and picked off the information so we can see that you know initially around november timeframe they're talking about 1.8 million 2.3 million completed foreclosures down the road so they're looking at that and then i know that it was adjusted to about 2.5 million to 3 million foreclosures that was their adjustment on a subsequent webinar and then i want to point out that also we've got this 1.1 to 1.2 million delinquencies that aren't any foreclosure plan so if i'm taking a look at you know the 2.5 to 3 million adding this 1.1 1.2 we're going to be in that three and a half to four million range and i believe this is all conservatively speaking numbers as the narrative goes the last thing that we want to do or the government or these groups want to do is spook the public so we don't know how bad things are going to be but this is the numbers they're talking about now so for me um you know the the markets are frothy you know we've heard that word before back in the day and we're acknowledging that we're going to have this so it's about being prepared and moving forward for it so this should not come to a surprise to anybody the difference though is that for me the fallacy of the narrative is that equity is going to fix all these problems so these four three to four million uh foreclosures will have no effect on the marketplace whatsoever uh if you have equity you're just gonna sell your prop you're gonna cash out life will be good someone will jump on your home and everything will be great well i don't think that's to play out that way and this is what i call the whole foreclosure and forbearance um fallacy now now talking to um i picked this off linkedin off my linkedin profile this guy darren bloomquist again i don't know him personally he's vp at auction.com involved adam baseless the whole bit as i said i like their platform i like their information they're coming out even saying this look short sales are the pre-foreclosures sales are poised to become a more dominant share of the stress market in 2021 and beyond so that's the whole thing so it's gonna happen uh we have to be patient i talk to a lot of people and you know right now these are not on market properties i want to be clear about that you know everybody wants and i say this every time on my video now is that what i don't need to hear from everybody is i want a 3 000 square foot home with you know four bedrooms a pool on the water and i want to buy it for 50 off that's that's not really relevant to me because these are not available right now it's going to take time for these properties to go through end of forbearance foreclosure process to to actually be hitting the market because the homeowner has to raise they have to ask for help to engage so they're not on mark unless the homeowner wants to be on market the the key here is marketing to the homeowner because we know who they all are and getting the deals which is what we do it we're where we are down here and that's how we we work our business model so the whole point there are properties available right now you just have to know where to look and you know i this little image here is distress sales one percent of the entire sales across the board every month national association realtors talks about this i show the slide you know cash buyers investor buyers first time home buyers one percent of distressed sales those distressed sales are made up of what on market reo and short sale so one percent of all on market property sales falls into the distressed property category reo's real estate owned which means banks have foreclosed on them and put them back on the mls and short sales active short sales that are put on the mls well if one percent is both reos and short sales we can pretty much say that let's just say half of that so 0.5 percent uh is the short sales which shows us that no one's doing short sales when we look at what's going on so i know that there's pre-foreclosures in the shadow inventory i know that there's homes that are going to do auction right now no one's doing short sales i mean no one i mean real estate agents aren't going after this market real estate investors aren't going at this market how do we know this back to the one percent rule if more people were doing this there'd be more of those on market we'd see that one percent distress sales every month increase over time so it's actually getting smaller over time which to me is the flip side of the biggest inventory so i always say you know once in a lifetime opportunity now is our second chance at a once in a lifetime opportunity very interesting as time goes on foreclosure filings are quietly increasing more properties are scheduled for fc auction for foreclosure auction again think of the one percent rule no one's going after this marketplace why can't you go after them why can't you learn to go after why can't you spend some time and figure out how this actually works to get yourself that property that's cheaper than retail and overpaying etc now the reason you know i can show this because i see the data and two talking to my attorney who i work with who does all of our short sale negotiation and processing he has said that yeah he's seen an increase in the filings that's coming across um and you know what from what he does and where he sees his data which is we're pretty much off the same data feeds and i know because i look at the foreclosure calendars we know that you know we saw some upticks in in november december um you know i want to be clear here that december you know when you have holiday weeks for thanksgiving and over the christmas holidays not much happens on the auction side on the foreclosure filing side i'm moving the cases forward side now that january's back in play we're seeing more foreclosure filings and we'll see the court systems pick up again and the attorneys for the lenders get back in the swing of things so we'll start to see that that volume pick up and there will be the opportunities all right so want more information i'm happy to tell you about it just connect with me that is my email if i haven't had a chance to speak with you just ping me again and we'll get on the schedule for this week i do talk to a lot of people so if i haven't gotten to you i'm sorry if we miss each other i'm sorry just you know keep trying and i do spend a lot of time on the phone i spend a lot of time talking people and trying to help them or figure out what we can do together so having said that everybody thank you for the sh the likes the comments and the views please share the video with your family and friends look forward to speaking with you in a couple of days