How Do I Sign Nebraska Banking PPT

How do i industry sign banking nebraska ppt computer

good afternoon and welcome welcome to the webinar presenting the Nebraska economic forecast the Nebraska economic forecast is produced by the bureau of business research which is part of the department of economics and college of business administration here at the University of nebraska-lincoln as well as by the Nebraska business forecast Council which is a group of economists through from the private sector public sector and university sector here in Nebraska we're happy to present the results of the economic forecasts to you today my name is Eric Thompson I'm the director of the Bureau business research and also a faculty member here at UNL before we get started with the PowerPoint presentation that will compose most of the webinar here today I wanted to point out a few other features of the webinar in the right side of your screen in the middle of the screen you'll see there's a list of participants in the webinar and you you'll see just below that in the bottom right part of the screen there's a chat window so you can use that chat window to chat with the other participants in the webinar if you like while the webinar is going on and please do so you'll also see a few other features in the middle lower part of your screen is a question and answer window so either during the PowerPoint presentation or after the PowerPoint presentation is over feel free to type questions into the question and answer window and I'll be happy to answer your questions after the PowerPoint presentation is complete lastly in the upper middle part of your screen we currently have a holiday greeting but later in the webinar we're going to put up some poll questions for our webinar participants we have two poll questions today to get your opinion and expectations about the economy and we'll see what the audience thinks in terms of the future direction of Nebraska economy and then compare that with our own forecast results so looking forward to doing that a little bit later in the webinar so with those things pointed out I'm going to go ahead and proceed with our PowerPoint presentation on the Nebraska economic forecast a very simple outline for this presentation today we're going to briefly talk about the US economic forecast and then talk about the Nebraska economic forecast now we're going to spend a little time in the US economic forecast because at the end of the day we can't really talk about the Nebraska economic outlook without knowing what the outlook is for the national economy we do have a our own unique economy here in Nebraska certainly were more heavily involved in agriculture and related industries in the typical state in the United States but we're also a very diverse economy very connected to the national international markets and therefore as the US economy goes to a large degree so we'll go to the Nebraska economy so we need to talk about that US economic forecast first then we'll get into the details for Nebraska so in terms of the US economic forecast we sort of divide the divide the thoughts into three groups first of all what are the strengths what are the things the US economy has going for it at the moment what are the weaknesses what are some things that will be a bit of a headwind for economic growth going forward and then what's the bottom line kind of summing up the strengths and the weaknesses where do we think the economy will be going do we think the US economy will be growing if it's growing will be growing at a moderate rate or rapidly try to assess that bottom line for speed of economic growth for the US economy over the next three years so let's start by talking about some of the strengths the good news is that our economy currently has a self-sustaining economic recovery so over the last certainly two years we've had pretty strong growth in real wages and really across the income distribution so middle and working class workers as well as higher income workers we've had solid rate wage growth the last few years in excess of inflation so you can call it real wage growth and this of course has supported consumer spending which has been pretty solid in the economy and also an improvement in housing activity in the country so always positive when you're in the recovery stage of the business cycle and your economy has reached a self-sustaining economic recovery we also have some long term conditions that are pretty favorable I think the the regime of lower oil prices over the last few years is likely to continue over the next three years also i think the pattern of low interest rates that we've seen over the last seven or eight years is likely to continue we have had some increase in interest rates recently but I think if you look at it from a historical perspective interest rates will be much lower over the next three years that may have been on average over the last 30 or 40 years so these things will benefit the economy lower oil prices low interest rates are clear positive for the economy we also have some beneficial plans from the incoming Trump administration for the economy including plans to deregulate the financial sector the labor market the the industrial sector in terms of environmental regulation also plans for tax reform in terms of economic growth east these things should be good for economic growth in the country now let's talk about some of the weaknesses now we do have some long term issues that we continue to struggle with we do have an aging workforce so with the baby boom population already already has started to reach retirement age and more and more of that generation will be aging into retirement age that's going to slow the rate of growth in our labor force here in the country and that's of course going to impact economic growth we also I think over last two or three decades had challenges with workforce quality in terms of the working class middle class in terms of issues such as you know workplace performance sticking with employment dependability things of that nature and those things can be a negative for economic growth as well something we still struggle with there's also weak weak overseas economies and reasons to expect that to continue and higher higher value for the US dollar which is of course somewhat related to that and that's a bit of a negative for export activity which will definitely impact the economy there's also with the incoming Trump administration probably some plans that are more negative for the economy in terms of plans to restrict trade and immigration so these would tend to reduce economic growth also there's no no at least widely discussed or prioritize plans to reform the entitlement system in the US medicare social security and such a reform would probably be quite beneficial for the economy but currently at least there's not a lot of talk about making such a reform effort over the next few years so those are some of the negatives or weaknesses that the economy faces if we were to sum it all up because there are a lot of positives as well as some negatives we do think the bottom line is we will continue to have moderate solid GDP growth and job growth in the United States over the next three years so that's a positive outlook domestic work for kit issue workforce issues and a weak global economy you know that will slow us down a bit new policy proposals are some good things in there and also some things to be a bit worried about so that's kind of a mixed bag right now what we'll have to see which policies end up being emphasized and again that lack of progress on entitlement reform so I think those the good news is we'll have good solid job growth we do have a few few factors that might be holding us back a little bit going forward and perhaps preventing us from having a truly strong economic growth so I guess if the US economy sets the the speed limit for the Nebraska economy the speed limit of the US economy is moderate economic growth maybe 60 65 miles an hour not a real rapid speed of growth which we might like to see but we'll see what happens over the next few years okay time to talk a little bit about the economic forecast for Nebraska to do that I think it's important to talk about some of the key industries for our state's economy the things we really specialize in and do well and what the outlook is for those and then talk a little bit more about some of the other details of the forecast for Nebraska so our three key industries are the agricultural production complex that's our biggest industry that obviously includes farming and ranching but it includes also all of those industries which provide services and inputs to farming and ranching and also all of those businesses that transport and process agricultural commodities a big part of our manufacturing sector for example is involved in processing agricultural commodities be a significant part of our transportation industry is involved in hauling agricultural commodities but there's more to the Nebraska transportation industry than just that and transportation really is a second key industry in our state we are home to the headquarters of several the largest trucking companies in the country we are home to the headquarters of one of the four largest railroads in the country and have a lot of activity from in the state from one of the other major railroads in the country so whether it's trucking or rail Nebraska is really a center for economic activity and it's a key transportation as a key part of our economy has been a key part of our economic growth over the last few decades lastly Nebraska is a very strong state in terms of the insurance industry we have nearly double the employment and ensure this industry that you'd expect given the size of our state economy and it's a an industry high-paying industry that we're historically good at and continue to have some advantages in so let's talk about each of these three and a little bit more detail obviously in terms of the the farming and ranching part of the agricultural industrial and agricultural production complex and in terms of the businesses that supply farmers and ranchers with machinery with the with inputs that they need it's been a pretty tough period over the last few years for that part of our agricultural production complex commodity prices have fallen rapidly between 2013 and 2016 first for crops and now more recently for cattle and livestock so lower commodity prices have been a big issue for the industry reducing profitability reducing some of the economic activity and that's been a negative now as you'll see we might we might expect the industry will stabilize somewhat over the next few years will get into that detail in a minute but we do have to acknowledge has been a tough few years I think the other piece of potential good news is remember that a big part of our agricultural industrial complex is not farming and ranching or supplying farmers and ranchers its processing agricultural commodities whether that's transporting or processing crops whether that's slaughtering animals meat processing plants so that part of the industry is still doing pretty well that part of the industry really depends on a large crop and we continue to have large levels of agricultural output in Nebraska I think the other thing to say is the long-term outlook for Nebraska agriculture is quite positive I have listed here some data from the Nebraska Department of Agriculture which points out how Nebraska is a leading Stalley ting state in many aspects of the agricultural industry we tend to have a tight cluster of suppliers and processors of agricultural commodities and state that just gives us a tremendous advantage for the future going forward making us an attractive place for expansion of existing businesses and investment in new businesses in our state's that's a big positive the second thing we have is the aquifer advantage here in Nebraska as you can see from this map of the Ogallala Aquifer our state contains the largest share of the aquifer we also compared to other states we also have I think the healthiest part of the aquifer here in Nebraska so because of that i think that leads us to have a more reliable crop here in Nebraska regardless of agricultural conditions and our climate conditions and therefore makes us a much more practical a much safer place in order to make investments in agricultural processing businesses and you can see there's plans for some major investments in the coming years and that advantage that reliable crop is going to be a big plus in helping Nebraska attract more businesses and more agricultural production into our state so despite the recent problems there's still a good future in the agricultural sector now terms of our specific farm income forecast for the next three years you can see that well if our more income has dipped quite a bit it was close to eight billion dollars back in 2013 it's fallen quite a bit with commodity prices have fallen but we think farm income can remain pretty stable over the next three years as commodity prices stabilize admittedly at lower levels but stabilized and you know as as farmers and ranchers do what they do so well in Nebraska figure out ways to be more efficient ways to make more money we do think they can grow income slightly over the next three years are the only year we're predicting a drop is 2018 and that's partly because during that year we expect the loss of about 500 million dollars in farm payments related to the insurance crop insurance program but other than that we do think they'll be modest progress in farm income now this gets us to our first poll question which Nebraska industry is forecast to have the fastest employment growth rate over the next few years services which includes obviously health care and education business services restaurants things like that construction sector or transportation and warehousing which is largely transportation here in the state of Nebraska so when you get an opportunity to go ahead and cast your your vote in our our first poll and we'll see the answers to this question in the next few minutes well let me talk about our second key industry in Nebraska transportation so it's an industry where we have substantial sources of advantage here in Nebraska again that strong agricultural sector creates a lot of demand our location along Interstate 80 the transportation sector has actually been growing very rapidly along the whole interstate 80 corridor because of strong economies along the corridor I think there's also just some advantages for interstate 80 in terms of getting over the mountains as you head west so interstate 80 running through the heart of our state is a big advantage for the transportation industry as we talked about earlier we're also in a rail industry center and lastly people we have a large skilled workforce here in Nebraska with experience in the trucking industry people with an agricultural background may may feel come more comfortable transitioning to the transportation industry we also have a high level of entrepreneurship especially within our trucking industry so for those reasons we think transportation will continue to be a growth sector for the Nebraska economy in the years to come similarly in insurance we have a lot of advantages because we have an historically large cluster of business of a lot of insurance businesses here in our state we have a lot of qualified workers with experience working in the insurance industry we have a lot of training programs which you'd expect in a state that specializes the insurance industry hopefully there would be training programs there would be college majors that the trained people getting them ready for careers in the insurance industry we certainly see that several strong actuarial science programs in the state all I'll give a shout-out to our UNL actuarial science program which is nationally ranked so that the Nebraska is effective in training people educating people getting them ready to work in the insurance industry and then the we have policies in the state tax policies regulations that are beneficial the insurance industry at least limiting government interference with the industry and that can be a positive as well okay so let's look at our specific forecast so transportation and warehous ng you can see is an industry that's struggled over the last decade the beginning of the Great Recession in 2007 and you can see that transportation employment is actually still slightly below where it was in 2007 however during 2017 or early 2018 we think the transportation employment and warehousing employment will continue to grow and we should get back to our 2007 level of employment quite soon and you can see that we are expecting a solid rate of growth in a transportation warehousing industry about 900 jobs per year which would translate into around 1.3 percent 1.5% annual growth financial services insurance as part of this has not done quite a bit better over the last decade employment is up in 2016 compared to 2007 and we expect the industry continued to grow also adding seven or eight hundred jobs a year and now I'm not all that growth will be in the insurance industry I think we'll have growth and Bank in real estate as well but that's also an industry on the upswing with the growth rates around one percent per year now let's look at a couple of our other key sectors you can see the construction sector here Erastus construction sector has several things going for it again like we talked about for the US economy it's certainly true in Nebraska that we have a self-sustaining economic recovery with real wage growth in our state and that should help support household formation and residential construction we've seen that in Nebraska in the last few years we expect to continue to see it during the 2017 to 2019 period growth should be pretty robust about fifteen to seventeen hundred jobs a year another big factors we're expecting a lot more money to pour in the road building in the state because of increases in the fuel tax because of the reallocation of some of the sales tax revenue from the general fund to road building and there's now evidence that even the federal government will get involved more an expanding funding for Road building so with that money pouring and that'll be a positive for the construction sector as well so growth is going to be between three and three point five percent per year in construction sector so if you look at our three industries or two of the three industries we see that we are expecting construction growth to be a little faster than transportation and warehousing growth let's look at the third industry from our poll question services we are expecting a lot of growth in this very large diverse industry about 7,000 jobs per year health care and continue expand at around 1.5 one-point-seven percent per year business services will expand at a solid rate leisure activities will continue to expand this is a large sector there'll be about seven thousand new jobs per year but the rate of growth will be around 1.7 percent per year so if you were to measure it and cording to the growth rate construction is the fastest growing industry I see about almost thirty percent of respondents chose construction two-thirds chose services services will have a lower growth rate but perhaps respondents we're focused on just the question said rate but in their mind some respondents might have just been thinking about how many jobs will be created and it is true that services will account for more than half of the job growth here in Nebraska over the next three years continue to become a larger and larger part of our state's economy manufacturing is the last the sector we're going to focus on specifically you can see that actually the numbers in Nebraska are much better than they are in most parts of the country we seem to have lost about four percent of our manufacturing employment in 2016 compared to 2007 you'd see much larger declines in most other states but we have we have not recovered all the jobs that we lost during the great recession in our manufacturing industry we were down about 10,000 jobs we seem to have gotten about six thousand of those back we think we can add a few more jobs in 2007 through 2019 but still not quite getting back to that 2007 level we're expecting 1300 new jobs over the next three years although about a thousand of them are expected to come from a new poultry facility that's planned to be built in the fremont area poultry processing facility in other parts of the manufacturing industry we think it will be fairly stable large growth in output and sales of our manufactured goods here in Nebraska but because productivity growth is so fast in the manufacturing industry labor productivity growth the new sales may not lead to much growth in the number of jobs in manufacturing okay we're now ready for our second poll question so we've looked at growth in the three key sectors of Nebraska economy two other important sectors manufacturing and services so given what you've seen and just your own opinion do you think the employment growth rate percentage rate will be faster in Nebraska or in the United States will see the answer in a minute so i'll give you a moment to go ahead and give your response to the pole so we saw that there's some good news for the nebraska economy but will our rate of growth actually exceed growth in the US economy those percentages seem pretty stable either still changing a little bit here so I'll wait another few seconds before I reveal the answer right now we're running about two-thirds with Nebraska it just changed more like a half saying Nebraska and the rest split between the US another option is there about the same so you know maybe one one's going to grow slightly faster the other all right well I hope everyone has had a chance to vote i'll go ahead and reveal the answer again about half saying nebraska about a third saying about the same and about a sixth saying the united states so here are the forecasts you know we also do a US employment growth forecast and nebraska forecast here's what we have we actually have the United States growing slightly faster than Nebraska so if you said Nebraska or I'm sorry if you said the United States or you said about the same i think you could make a case for either one of those being the correct answer because there aren't a lot there isn't a large difference between the projected growth rates so about half of you predicted what we'd find we do however it might be a slight difference but we do have a consistently faster growth rate in the US and Nebraska now why is that I think throughout the whole period Nebraska is growing a little bit slower in terms of employment because we're expecting the Brassica to grow a little bit slower in terms of population I think there was some reports out yesterday showing that you know Nebraska T is to have a problem with brain drain we do have in terms of state to state migration we we do have net out migration from Nebraska we do benefit from a lot of international in migration we do have a elit of lehigh natural rate of population growth here in Nebraska but in terms of state state migration we do still lose a few more people than we gain makes our population growth a little slower and ultimately if the workforce is growing more slowly employment is going to scroll more slowly as well you see that throughout the forecast 2018 2019 that factor will cause our employment to grow about two-tenths of a percent slower than nationwide I would like to point out that the employment growth forecast is still pretty positive for Nebraska we're expecting about eleven thousand new jobs in the state per year and our workforce and population will be growing just a little slower than nationally the other thing going on in 2017 the gaps a little larger during that year is you have to remember that not the Nebraska economy is basically fully recovered from the Great Recession but there's parts of the country that are still recovering where labor you know we're there's still a lot of discouraged workers a lot of people out of the workforce a lot of unemployment rates are still much higher than they are here in Nebraska and a lot of cyclically unemployed people still out there in the United States and so 2017 the US will be absorbing some of those people back to the workforce that's another reason US employment should go a little faster in 2017 so again slower than the US but not necessarily bad news obviously for the long run Nebraska's to figure out ways to improve our population growth other key indicators from the forecast obviously we talked about farm income earlier other than 2018 up two three four percent per year our non-farm personal income growth forecast is around four point three or four point four percent per year over the forecast period so that's a decent rate of growth a moderate rate of growth I'd like to point out it's a positive rate of growth in some sense we also show our forecasts for CPI the the the inflation effectively and you can see we're expecting that to run around two percent over the forecast period a little faster this in 2017 because we're starting to see oil energy prices bounce back a little bit and then population growth running oh point seven point six percent per year so if you add up population and inflation you can see that's around one and a half maybe one point seven percent less than our outlook for non-farm personal income so that means real per capita income is going to be growing in the state by one-and-a-half percent a year maybe one point seven percent in some years so that's a real growth in the standard of living and and that's the source of our self sustaining recovery in a lot of ways so that's some positive news there i think continuing what we've seen the last two or three years in terms of real income growth in the state at least outside of the farm sector also noteworthy there we have forecast growth and taxable sales you'll see that it lags non farm personal income growth even in the evenin the better years it's about a half a percent below non-farm personal income growth why our sales taxable sales growing a little more slowly than income I think there's two reasons for that the first is as we grow wealthier a larger percentage of Nebraska's Nebraskans spending is going to services many of which are not subject to the sales tax so that would explain part of that gap also the rise the increasing the order the continued its rapid growth of online retail sales that continues to grow not all that ends up being subject to tax and you know that that's part of the reason for that gap as well well those were the high points of our forecast and we just wanted to share those with you this afternoon now I'd be available to answer any questions you may have I'll just wait a moment or two see if anyone types in a question for me well you can can do that if you like I'm going to go ahead and give you a little bit more information here we'd like encourage you to keep in touch please follow the bureau of business research on social media whether linkedin facebook or twitter or information is there on the screen you can also subscribe to our monthly newsletter which is an e-newsletter we'd send you two or three reports and updates about the Nebraska economy every month and all you need to do is send your email address to be BR at UNL edu and we'll get you receiving those periodic emails with links to our reports well I want to thank everyone OOP we do have one question should we expect a decrease in ag related company's growth to be similar to AG income yes I think if you look at AG related companies that are suppliers to farmers and ranchers so some of what coops do for example is supplying farmers and ranchers there's a lot of businesses that supply fertilizer that supply seed to farmers and ranchers they might be impacted somewhat especially companies that sell I think durable goods to farmers and ranchers the types of machinery that the farmers and ranchers you know don't buy every year don't need to buy in order to put their crop in machinery and so forth I think I think there was a lot of growth in those purchases when farm incomes were very high in early in the decade and there's a big cut back in that area right now so those industries I think will will struggle or have struggled over the last few years as AG incomes have declined I would emphasize though that a big part of aggravated companies are processors so companies that process and work and/or transport grain out of state or process the grain here in the state we have a lot of meat processing plants in the state that the process hogs and cattle and so forth poultry and we have large crops and we have large amount of animals being slaughtered each year the farm income isn't great but the output of the farm sector in terms of quantities is still quite strong and those processors can do quite well right now so it's kind of a split story for our our AG related companies your processor you can still be doing quite well if you're a supplier or a farmer or Rancher it's been a difficult period although we do think just while incomes have fallen they should at least be able to stay stable going forward well I'm not seeing any other questions at this time we're going to go ahead and sign off but thank you once again for participating in our webinar series here today and please look to receive some information going forward as we set our webinar schedule for the new year you'll be seeing that in the coming weeks thank you again