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let's goodnight everyone my name is Nicolas Merton here at data - in today's June 13th of 2020 well folks I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are in in today's video we're not only going to be spending some time to take a long-term perspective on some of the major catalysts and moves in the cryptocurrency space between altcoins as well as Bitcoin but I'd say that as well talking about what's going on in regards to Fed monetary policy and taking a look at Treasury yields out of all things to see what it's telling us or what the market is telling us about what the Fed is going to do next I can give you a hint it's gonna be more QE and a possible hint of negative interest rates we've got lots more to go throughout the video right after our quick sponsor our sponsor for today's episode is bit Panda Pro if you're on the hunt for a proven trustworthy exchange in Europe to trade your crypto that I recommend taking a look at bit panda if you're just getting started many people refer to bit panda as the European coin base so it can be a great place to start and getting your first cryptid positions with over five years of experience serving the industry by offering easy and secure access to digital currencies bit panda has really earned its reputation check out the link down below in the description for more information already everyone so let's go ahead and take a quick look across the board for cryptic markets from the top three plays to the broader market the vast majority of crypto currencies are in a no trend scenario right now with very few exceptions in red territory as well as a few holding up here the greens for the top 3 plays being merged psychotic Komodo 3 legacy plays in the cryptocurrency space all of which are in double digit territory however again not much has changed since we last talked and that's why today I want to spend some time to talk a little bit about the broader term timeframe and look for some comparisons to history for what we can look forward to over the next few months so interestingly enough if you guys have been possibly looking you know at the kind of day-to-day timeframes for theory um and a few the altcoins it might seem that things are turning pretty positive and if you take an even further step back and look at the weekly or the monthly you'll start to see an even more justifiable trend that could you know showcase reason to be pretty excited about all coins again as you all know I like to be biased about this I don't have you know a personal love for any specific altcoin project over per se Bitcoin right I'm not a maximalist and the reason I'm not a max list is because I like to keep my opportunities open every single market possible and I like a lot of different types of assets I can like many stocks as I like many companies I like many precious metals like gold and silver and I also like many cryptocurrencies just like I like Bitcoin right so I try to keep a non-biased perspective on what I can read from the market and what's interesting is that we're seeing a lot of similarities to the beginning stages of the previous L coin cycle now as many of you know before I dive into my kind of analysis of this because it's quite simple I've mentioned in the past that usually we're not going to get our first all coin cycle until we get back up to 20 K and to be fair the deals will dive into that as well talking about Bitcoin as much as I do believe that that could be the case we might have to wait until we really get the big and the big move and all coins until we get to up to 20 K again it doesn't mean that we can't start seeing a beginning of the trend earlier and that we might diverge a tad bit off the trend from what we've seen previously what I do love seeing though is a major consistency and something that I like to use as a naked trader as a naked trader and know where I've got clothes on I look for support and resistance as well as general price levels I look for higher lows or lower highs and higher lows and lower lows right I look for all these different kinds of patterns in price and for what they tell me and we can see here if we take a look at the weekly chart we're getting a good broad range of pride the altcoin dominance oh excuse me bitcoin dominance in this case all right we usually look at all candelas but we're gonna look at it in the form of Bitcoin dominance today all the way back from 2015 to the mono rule today and we've been talking since back here in September that as we started to see Bitcoin dominance from back here in 2018 rally up then we were gonna start hitting some resistance and possibly get all points coming down and so far we've been dead on with that Klotz but it was one of our best calls in 2019 back in September as we started to see a reversal here a sharp decline here and we started to set in a low sees me a high here that was in line with previous resistance back here in 2017 however the thing that I wanted to look for here to really confirm my position that I is confident that all coins were gonna probably start to take over and start to gain market dominance was a consistency of lower highs and that's exactly what we saw back here so not even again just trying to put in my personal bias under what I look for in trading we can turn off our drawings here you can see you're very clearly that it started off with a start decline a change in trend here where we dropped about three percent setting it a lower high on Bitcoin dominance a third lower high right again if you want to consider it a second lower high if you're just you know not even counting the first one day that's fine right but you could even go back here right we had a really technically we did have three lower highs here and you can start to see that the pressure builds up more and more until it couldn't handle it anymore altcoin Alcuin stern exponential people got very excited and bitcoin sort of lose ground in the market now doesn't mean the bitcoin lost out it just didn't gain as fast as all quinces were because it's more difficult for a large cap asset to multiply x and x over again when you have smaller mid caps that have much more room to grow and it's the same comparison I make with Bitcoin it's a gold so again just taking that step back here and taking a look at the similarities that we have the lower highs here that we're getting here similarly with altcoins excuse me and we're going to Bitcoin dominance it's all Quinn start to gain I think now as we're starting to coil into almost a short term wedge here from back in September when we flipped and then also here in February when we've started to kind of set in higher lows here for Bitcoin dominance on the shorter term timeframe I think that we've got a real chance here for a breakdown in Bitcoin dominates to start forming and we start to see all points trending even higher and we've started to see some of the warm upsides here we've seen v5 plays really starting to kick off into you know exponential rallies and right when you think they're over they just continue going this has been through Qyburn network through ave a lot of the longer term that bullish plays like a chain link a lot of these have been continuing to hold out Ren is doing well so we have a lot of these different plays that are starting to really kick off their rallies and starting to show confidence and I think this historical similarity it's a good sign that we could be in an early stage of an altcoin cycle coming up here very soon right and not to mention during this time period even though the broader all Quin space hasn't really you know kicked off yet we've got 72% to 66% for market dominance for Bitcoin so that's gains for the offering space in general but at many plays like Carver Network we've four or five extra position comparative to Bitcoin so it's important to keep that in mind you know if you're in the right place here even in these early moves you can benefit quite greatly if you start to make the right calls all right now I want to talk a little bit about Bitcoin here because I know you guys don't always like if I just focus on all coins so as much like as as much as I do with everything I like to focus on other markets as well and there's a really interesting similarity that I'm seeing here when I take a look monthly chart for Bitcoin and the sense that's given me confidence that were just a couple of months away from getting back above 20k now the first thing I want to focus on is the longer term chart the expanding cycles we talked about this how each new cycle usually expands by around 11 to 13 months so in this case we added 12 months for the previous one just to keep it neutral and we're expecting some time for November 2022 to be the peak around a hundred K that's a conservative price level compared to a lot of people out there who are calling for 200k 300k 500k I like to keep it very very conservative and we'll see what happens as we get towards that time frame however what's interesting here is as we take a look here at the two of the major moving averages I like to use on longer term timeframes for Bitcoin the twenty one mA and also the 50 moving average here and so we've got two of them here the orange one is the 50 the blue ones 221 let's see a really interesting trend between these two moving averages not only a retest on the lows here two times on the 50 MA but along with that as well using the 21 ma as support here in fact it's even more true this time around in a longer cycle that we have here as we can see the support here being held on the blue line and also a double retest here as we came down with the crazy sell-off from the plus token Ponzi scheme the mass amount of leverage traders and then also people of course just needing to go to cash during a time like Cove at 19 so anyways we can see that there's a lot of interesting similarities between the moving averages and the important thing to really keep in mind is how long did it take to get from this point on right around 400 something dollars upwards towards 1200 right took a couple of months right and I think this time around we're gonna probably see a couple of months as well coming to play here before we really get back up above 20,000 right so again we have to be patient on this we have to see what's gonna happen here over the next coming weeks if we're really gonna break out above 10k if not you know again we're probably gonna come and push back down to 6,000 maybe test to test the logarithmic line one more time who knows right but right now I have to say that I at least like to see the historical similarities of the early stages of a formulation of an uptrend and it makes me confident that we could just simply come up right come up and set a higher low here maybe run 15k push sideways eventually come up here in early 2021 break above 20k and have a nice slow grind upwards but again the one argument that I hear from bears in the short-term is that it takes time for these cycles to really build up and once we get above 20k it's not gonna stop and you know even though we have a big target of a hundred K that it could start to make up the majority those gains in a very short window of time someone what we've seen back in previous cycles in the past so I wanted to go I haven't talked about equities now because we've got to talk about the craziness going on in traditional markets we just the other day technically we're not exactly there just yet but we were very close to if you want to consider the even level peak of the dot-com boom being $5,000 we just reached Nasdaq temp downs then the other day practically double the peak valuation of the dot-com bubble it's truly incredible stuff guys now again of course tech companies are at a very different position as y-you could justify what tech stocks would be where they were over here in 2015 they're much in a much different position in a sense of profitability revenue users adoption than where they we're back here the dot-com era no doubt about that however this is a very significant charter we can see that even compared here to the dot-com era they kind of sheer volatility and swings we've been seeing here in price I mean just the wicks here that we can see here on the the past six months has been incredible and that's what we're looking at here this is a six month candle charts so each of these candles represents six months you can just see the kind of sheer volatility and uncertainty that's been hanging on over these last couple of years it really puts it in perspective seeing the range that's traded here at a very simplified way now what's interesting here and what did I've into is a few different charts here from the daily shop brief it talks a little bit about Fed monetary policy right and it talks about kind of rewriting you know kind of and simple plain English as well as some of the key changes and stuff in the feds narrative that you should keep in mind but broadly speaking you can read through it it talks again about the Fed really seeing again financial conditions improving and part reflecting policy measures to support the economy so whatever they're doing right now from quantitative easing to lowering interest rates this is obviously somehow bolstering the economy I don't really see it bolstering much the real world economy but I sure certainly see it focusing on you know in regards to equity equity markets I think that's what they mean by the economy that's their focus point and all of that as well coming down here I said to support the flow of credit to households and businesses over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in at least the current pace to sustain smooth markets functioning thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and he really love to use fancy language for basically we're going to be buying up all the other assets that people would be buying if they didn't buy equities so now we're gonna basically force people to buy equities because we're buying up the mortgage-backed securities we're buying up the Treasuries that liquidity has to go somewhere and it's probably gonna go into equities it's gonna keep up propping up equity markets and interestingly enough you can see here more than anything taking a look at bond markets and specifically government Treasuries you can see the very clear pace of what the market is intending Federal Reserve monetary policy to be it's very important to realize that as bond yields are dropping this means that there's probably gonna be two things happening the Fed is gonna be buying up bonds which drives yields down right the more the price of a bond goes up further the yield usually drops that's historically true in all bond markets second off it likely means that the Fed cutting down interest rates and the lower interest rates go it's likely meaning that the lower the bond yield is going to go because if you can for example borrow liquidity from the Fed right at a specific interest rate say for example it's and we just keep it simple we'll just go to zero percent right kind of a new reality that we're stepping into zero percent is back it's the new norm and if it's at zero percent you can borrow from the Fed and you can just go out and buy up Treasuries there's a clear marketing system there's a yield there for you you can go buy those Treasuries and basically print free money because you're gonna get paid from the government to hold on to these Treasuries right so what dichotomy is just lead us to well and led us to the position back here in April where yields drop to practically nothing on the short-term timeframes if I could go buy out some short-term bonds make point zero one percent or point zero nine percent you know people would chase that yield because the federal funds rate was down to nearly zero to about point 25 basis points that's the general range that it traded through and the Fed maintained it there that's why the shorter term yields not only turned towards practically zero someone who dipped slightly into negative territory and we can see that of course the yields have corrected back into maybe what might be seen as more nor al territory and started to you know flip on an uptrend but don't think it's gonna be lasting for long guys because on the daily here where we started to see actually for the first time in the past few months a substantial gain in the five-year yield all those games were dropped in just as quick and we're back down to the baseline that we've been holding back here since March taking a look here at the 10-year yield right coming down here slamming down into games we had back towards the general bottom territory that we've had here for the last few months take a look at the 20-year yield take a look at the daily here got a nice big spike here in the yield from around 1.2 to 1.5 going down to one point two three eight that's basically back down and where we were square one and along with that the 30-year cutting out all those games in the exact same period of time and 1.46 okay still definitely higher from where we were back here in March a little bit of relief to the economy some confidence compared to where we were back there where there was the idea that you know the Fed and no one in the world could do nothing to get a you know the general market back in action but you can notice here that we haven't had any substantial return if you take a look on a longer-term timeframe this is where we're at right now on these longer-term yields and it's important to realize that this is probably the best indicator you can use to see what the Fed is going to do next the market is pricing these things in Treasury markets are so large that one way or another word gets out and you can start to be confident about where the feds going and honestly the Fed kind of makes it easy anytime they say they're not gonna do something they end up usually doing something so if they've said that they're not going to be issuing negative interest rates and that they're going to be tapering quantitative easing and entering into maybe cute quantitative tightening eventually in the next few years you can probably guess that they're gonna continue quantitative easing for the next couple of years and they're going to definitely enter in negative interest rates where the Fed goes other central banks follow so anyways I hope you guys I hope you guys enjoyed this video in regards to all the kind of broader macro topics taking a look at the longer-term perspective keep all this in mind when you're taking a look at the broader Ocwen space when you're looking at Bitcoin as an asset these are the assets we want to keep an eye on as we go into this territory of trillions of dollars being locked up in markets that are either possibly overinflated I have no doubt that these will probably continue to climb if if the central banks keep printing but on what that as well talking about the trillions of dollars and money that's in currency markets and Treasuries they're being penalized by new environment of negative interest rates and massive amounts of printing also do that as well guys as you guys are holding your computer in yes it's one thing I'd like to share with you all again you guys probably know about already is a response to tax bit so as you guys are going through the tax season I know we fund the extended tax season with everything going on with the crisis we've had over the last few months that's led the tax season extending you guys should definitely check out tax but to simplify your tax documents if you guys haven't done so already the IRS is hitting down pretty hard this year on cryptocurrencies so if you haven't paid your taxes definitely check it out check out texts but you can plug in all your exchanges through a mix of API keys across all exchanges you can make it so that they can't trade or anything that's just simply viewing your account balance and being able to see your trades so you can actually put it all in one document and send it off and make sure that you understand why what you owe and reversed your taxes this year all right anyways that's it for the video everyone thank you all so much for watching if you like this video drop a like it's always appreciated but until then I'll see you all in the next video stay tuned [Music]