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[Music] [Music] let's talk about this treasury market um there seems to have been a disturbance in the force uh with that uh terrible um seven year auction that we saw with demand so unbelievably low all of a sudden it appears that interest rate spike is upsetting the markets even though we're getting a little bit of a rebound in the stock market here on friday that's uh probably won't last long and this interest rate uptick is a concern of course we live in this world uh of uh that's built on debt uh fiat currency fiat means by government decree they say it has value uh and uh that means that they can do anything they want with it because it's government decree um the market that we're living in right now uh the economy we're living in right now built on debt it's a world we're going to hand over to our kids and grandkids i'm always extremely critical of this and it is so annoying here are the four people responsible for this uh fed that we have right now of course the look at that young greenspan the activist fed right there well he created it and that was followed by bernanke and yellen and now powell somehow powell has just fallen into this uh and now that we have a treasury secretary of the yelling quite a team where they can uh just keep growing the money on that magic money tree that you see this debt bomb could explode at any time if it's not exploding already look at that money growing on the tree mmt could you ever believe that that could be adopted here in this world well that's where we are right now uh the perpetual motion machine you can grow all the money you want on these trees that it'll never matter well until all of a sudden the bond market can't take all these issuances anymore and that's what you end up with this is uh a a situation here that i believe that what we're seeing is the beginning of the central banks and specifically talking about the u.s central bank losing control of the market and uh is this that bomb exploding is the seven year auction the beginning of that how could they possibly believe in that magic money tree that keeps growing as much money as they want to print well enough of that you get the idea looking at that and what we're going to do right now is we're going to look at some charts as we look at the treasury market the look at interest rates and we'll look at the tlt which is the 20-year bond etf which a lot of people trade so we thought that was the right one to look at as we get into the charts here is the first chart that i want to show you right now and that is uh the 10-year treasury index yield and you can see we're looking here back to about 2000 so we're looking at 21 22 years let me explain this chart to you i showed this chart back two months ago when we did our year and show and talked about the fact that we had projected at that time that interest rates would go up to 1.5 to 1.9 percent by 2022. you can see that right there this was all on the chart let me explain to you what we're looking at these are cycle brackets on the bottom for those of you that are new to our style of analysis well where they a small cycle or minor cycle and the dominant cycle bottom is where you often get big advances you can see that here we we created green zones in here so you could see that we that's where you get these big upside moves and yields and uh we thought that you know it'd be six to 28 months which is the a long a long range of time that you get these advances and they're at least 50 percent uh retracements of the loss so we had projected coming up hip up here to about 1.9 percent uh but the truth is is that if you look at this downward channel right over here that's 2.5 percent and uh there's a possibility that it will follow that track right over there so let's just take a closer look in here as you could see that we had here we were at the end of the year saying that it was likely to have that kind of a move and it happened exactly we declared a bear market here uh in the treasury market and it is clear to us that that's what we have the fed is no longer going to be able to push these rates down for any period of time they will potentially try yield curve control they're not going to be able to do that but we are in this rising period for yields that we believe is going to go right into the end of the year and it is possible we will see two and a half percent uh as yield now we say possible our target was 1.9 and we think we're easily going to get to that target sometime this year i'll show you a little bit more about that when as i look at the tlt chart and i think you will find it extremely interesting so here is the weekly chart in tlt i'm going to zoom out a little bit here and you can see the cyclical patterns in here there are three cycles in each of these what's called harmonic families if you want to learn about psychoanalysis please go to askslim.com and go to the workshop page and we have a lot there that you can learn about uh by watching a little video there so there are one two three cycles in each of those harmonic families and uh right now what how these measure out are 22 44 and 88 weeks 22 44 and 88 weeks when there is a nesting you get a pretty big decline as you see right over there and it is moving down into the next nesting two cycles nesting here three we're nesting right over there and that's where you get the biggest period of risk we had talked about this has been here for a long period of time that january through march were the biggest period of risk and that's essentially what we have seen right in here as january through march we're getting this well right now it's february big decline we are projecting down here to about 134 in the tlts which is this super major 61.8 percent of fib extension what that means is that it's taking uh it's taking a measurement from way back here at an important bottom and that's really the target right over here and here in the middle of april is where that target really looks to us uh like it's pointing to so uh when you look at these bigger patterns and that's this one right over here so because this pattern right over here that blue one is already negative when it broke underneath this level at 153 we warned that it was a major top in place it suggested a bear market and you've got this big break i want to make sure you could see that very clearly that below there suggested that it was a negative market and you'd get a big break so now what we're looking at now is the bigger pattern right in here and what we want to do is see the date and that takes you out to 2022. what that says to us is that the bear market is on and the bear market in the uh treasury market will go into 2022 at least and if that's the case we're going to see much higher interest rates and if that's the case well probably the stock market is not going to like that of course if you look at our year-end show we talk about the stock market entering a bear market at some point this year and that's in alignment with what we're looking at here so the weekly patterns suggest a further decline for about the next month and then a rebound than here in the treasury market i'm going to show you the shorter term pattern right over here and there was actually a minor bottom due right over here it's a little bit late that's why it says shift and what that says to us is that you're likely to get a rebound now as the stock market begins to struggle and this rebound takes you up to about 146 if the stock market gets hit hard that would that's that would be where it would go but then we believe in this resistance zone is where it fails and then begins to move down again so a minor couple of weeks potential bounce here in the tlt but really that's dominated by this big negative situation right over here and i want you to see our momentum indicator which turned negative right at this point and has been bait went flat here and then negative again and that has been a fantastic indicator on the weekly chart and this is our indicator here on the daily chart which on the bottom is the this is our slim ribbon indicator right in here which is the best momentum indicator you'll ever see and add to that the signal indicator the slim ribbon po and it continues to give you the cell warnings that you can see right in here and this has been fantastic so tlt has been exceptionally negative if you want to get the slim ribbon po you have to be a level 4 member and have thinkorswim td ameritrade so you can open up a td ameritrade account through our website and then we get credit for that so decline in the treasury market we're looking for uh over the next month that we see and uh any rally that we get now in a rebound is likely to be temporary uh and then interest rates moving up again or the uh the treasury's moving down again in a very very significant way for the time being right now the worst may be over for the bond market as we look at this and that temporary bid as uh as this safety bid comes in but then again into april um the treasuries could move down very sharply and that could hurt the stock market we'll talk more about that moving forward this is our level 2 trial membership we are starting this right now for new subscribers this will not last long and this is the last time we will have this pricing right now what this includes is the stock index report live stream that you can see what this with that is is live uh right on your your computer you don't need a special platform of the s p 500 nasdaq and russell i'll show you that in a moment our stock index report uh which we put out every day the snapshot the sir you'll get that every single day you'll get our weekly stock index report our weekly etf review simulator momentum tracker which is for position traders and investors over a thousand different uh uh stocks that you could look at etfs uh with our algorithms built into it for with momentum conditions you're going to see fantastic stuff in there just amazing you'll get our complete library 600 plus videos and nine categories that i've done teaching all kinds of aspects and showing all kinds of analysis in the stock market and our new trader workbench for trade planning absolutely amazing what's more amazing you'll get all of that for 22.50 the first month there are even bigger discounts if you take quarterly discounts how can you possibly pass this especially if you're an active trader just go to asklim.com top of the main page you'll see the special link there and you'll be able to sign up for the one month or for the quarterly or if you have questions about that or have an issue with that link then write to matt ask slim.com let me show you just some examples of what is in here just absolutely mind-boggling this is the sir live stream now this was from the uh 24th this was from wednesday the 24th and uh this is for our intraday charts uh really for short-term trading these are 15-minute charts of the s p 500 the nasdaq and the russell what it has on here is what we call our reversal scout this helps you with your directional decisions and when it turns up which it did the day before you generally get upside moves you're going to get our resistance levels right in here and you're going to get our uh these are called acceleration zones the yellow ones the probability when they enter the acceleration zone that they will continue is extremely high you can get the numbers from that if you want and once it gets in there you can see it just explodes through this is how you catch the big trades and sometimes when it dips it dips right into the support as you could see right there and right there just absolutely great and you can also see which of the strongest and weakest of these indexes which was really clear is the nasdaq was the weakest and the russell was the strongest and you could see that uh it's incredible that is what you saw on the up day on wednesday how about the down day on thursday let's take a look right over here and yes what happened was the uh we got this early downturn here in the reversal scout and it went down all day long through all of those zones right over there just absolutely incredible through the acceleration zones where you catch the biggest trades and then got into this area but it was late in the day and couldn't even turn around as you can see that so just fantastic information here how about uh what's going on today let's put it up live right now for you to see here you go this is now live on my screen and we started out the day choppy moving down but then when the reversal scout turned up you can see what happened and it came up right to resistance and you're getting some resistance right over there move you get the nasdaq moving up through those acceleration zones beautiful hits the resistance now pulling down but you could see what's going on what's the weakest index right now clearly the russell so if you wanted to be doing a pair trade well you would probably be buying nasdaq today and shorting russell if you wanted to just buy and you didn't know which one well you could see which is the strongest one in here today which is the nasdaq just absolutely fantastic in resistance right now failing from resistance getting through the acceleration zones hitting resistance and backing off if you're a short-term trader i mean this is just unbelievably fantastic information uh when you look at that so that is a look at the live sil live stream and you can have this right on your charts just absolutely uh fantastic amazing here is the the library uh three new videos every week nine categories over 600 videos i'm not going to read it to you you can read it but just uh incredible things uh you could see trader psychology got lots of great things in there about how you can deal with personal issues that may be getting in your way of success so just unbelievable stuff including future speak which we do every wednesday are certainly 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