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okay I think it's time to begin ladies and gentlemen distinguished guests my name is Tony pion I'm the director of the Mexico Center it is my distinct pleasure to welcome you to the Baker Institute for Public Policy here at Rice University as you know Mexico elected a new leader on July 1st 2018 mr. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is now the country's president through the end of 2024 mr. Lopez Obrador take takes office having promised to take the country in a very different direction then it has been on for the last 30 years he also inherits enormous challenges including raising economic growth from two to four percent he promised lowering levels of poverty and inequality tackling the issue of Central American migration through Mexico stabilizing the relationship with the United States and very importantly reinforcing the rule of law in Mexico of all these formidable challenges the last is perhaps the most complex of all the rule of law means all crimes past and present must be dealt with fighting corruption providing public safety and security will also be at the center of the agenda but none of this will be easy 2018 is already slated to be the most violent year on record over 30,000 homicides and the administration of justice institutions are simply buckling under their own incompetence although President Lopez Obrador has already taken the first few steps towards addressing the issue of the rule of law and specifically the problem of public safety and security there are very serious doubts about whether his proposal is truly anything that has not already been tried and whether he can guarantee that his efforts will not end up in failure violence and crime have to a large extent determined the way the previous administration's will be remembered in history and they are likely to be a maker or breaker for this administration as well Harley anyone has more extensive and deeper knowledge of the kind of challenge that providing public safety and security represents to the New Mexican administration as does our guest today mr. Garcia Luna has been to the Baker Institute before and we have called upon him again to remind us of the opportunities and constraints around this important challenge of Public Safety in security in Mexico mr. Garcia Luna is not only a former high-level functionary in the part in the field of Public Safety and security in Mexico he is and I'm convinced of this a deep thinker and even an academic of these issues in his own right he will speak a bit about his own thoughts and reflections on what Mexico is required to do to achieve lower levels of violence and greater public safety and security in how to couple that pursuit with higher levels of prosperity and social well-being for all and then he and I will come up here and have a conversation on this issue I have a few questions for him and after that we'll open it to a conversation with all of you the bio for mr. Garcia Luna is in your program you may look at it you at your leisure but but I'm convinced that he is probably one of the most important guests that we will have at the Baker Institute on this issue and so help me welcome our guest to share his own thoughts on this issue mr. Janeiro Brazil [Applause] hey we went on launches don't see how heroes a procuress era isotope Baker poorest opportunitites passio para poder compartir con Simeon to experience a con con ustedes respect call it a perfect thi para Mexico and say that equals IDO a homogeneous level Lucio of our violence and criminal activity and what is the official focus to address this so I have a PowerPoint presentation it's in English I will speak in Spanish so that I can do a better job for you but I don't want to make mistakes because this is very delicate and I want to be precise so forbid me I'm sorry if you I apologize ahead of time for you having to listen to me through the translators but still thank you so my first slide speaks about the behavior the country had since 99 until 2017 this is official data from records let me see you all also from the homicide there is in the country when there is the intent intentional homicides so this is the tendency that we've seen of what the evolution has been over time and you can see in 2008 there was an increase of this tendency on these trends and then this is important from 2017 then there's the next phase of this process so these records that are official like I said these the country issues them as official registries for intentional homicide for the country explain this because learning with this and with this perspective like as Tony Tony said the pencil is the initial question is why violence and why do we get here how did we get here and this is a process that we are trying to understand in Mexico part of the analysis that we have is in the booklet you have and we analyze the components situation and I will speak about them one by one describing them the first one is that there was a change in the criminal behavior in the country with respect to criminal groups and this you can see in this pyramid that I have you can see problems we had in the 90s towards the end of the 90s we had mugging this was one or two maybe three people with activities with criminal activities that were not even violent this was just theft generic left with low incidence of violence no arms no no guns that was the basis that's how we started and then in 2008 when we go up to this this week that you can see this top and it goes up many vehicles then left of gasoline and then bank robbery and then homicide not kidnapping extortion and then the criminal organization which is what we know now in the entire country so at this point with this evolution there's something that's very important to mention is the use of high caliber guns when we have this evolution this continues to increase the the high-caliber weapons being used and this is a picture that shows this phenomenal delicious 2008 when this evolution started I just showed a minute ago you can see the increase in violence Mexico up to the year 2006 2007 criminal activities different guns that were revolvers or handguns not automatic weapons and so it wasn't violent really and this coin size that in 2004 then we took away this prohibition automatic weapons are being able to be authorized and then that started to grow in Mexico and criminal activity increased because people were being able to have access to these automatic weapons and so then with operations that the police started against this type then people we're not able to control this we went from revolvers and handguns with low caliber guns to automatic weapons with high high access to to these weapons and this was a big problem so next slide so here you can see as well even other even higher powered weapons you can see the logistics here you can see the evolution with the criminal behaviors and analysis with respect to violence in this change in patterns okay oops sorry not sure what happened yeah okay go slowly no get into the command right here I mean you can just use that okay yes thank you and here you can see an issue that there's several analysis we started to see things that we didn't see before in Mexico these are elements for explosives these are industrial explosives and the activity in Mexico was used in mining or industrial activities and this we start to find them in criminal activities when there were weapons or things that had been stolen and then we started to find this these elements that are part of the explosives area this here in this picture you can see this is in Syria Juarez in 2007 you can see already these bombed cars that thank God they didn't detonate but you can see the amount of explosives in the car so you just have an idea of what this means in Europe in Spain for example a bomb car like this the ones I use there they only have one of these just one to activate the bomb that's all you need just one and see the amount that we had here so you can see so if this hadn't detonated half of the street would have disappeared that's the magnitude what this was thank God the technical aspect wasn't really there so they were not ever ready to actually detonate it but it was ready and it would have been that so this is the evolution that we've had with respect to the violence that this component can cause and this circumstance another component that we mentioned is the deterioration of the police forces specifically the municipal police and here you can see in 2009 which was at the time and what we had with respect to the municipal and state police and you can see at the time and this same proportion is the same at this or to give you an idea the municipal police had 39 percent of the territory the country and then the state police was forty five point six and the federal police was six point seven pointing so this is important why because from a legal standpoint who is authorized to do that is the state police for the crime that has an impact on the society and the community which is theft homicide these are local crimes and that would be the local police that is in charges of forty five percent that we see here now the point is that the logistical standpoint and the salary that they receive is very bad these are police that they don't have the operations the logistics and they don't have that with respect to really deal with this crime they just don't have it they can't they can't do it and you can see this and the corruption there is the lack of operation capacity that I will show in the next next slide as well so here you can see as well see this graph shows as well 2009 a survey where you can see how many officers there are in each municipal police department for each entity and you can see that eighty eight point five percent is the total of the police that have less than a hundred officers so in the whole country they have less than a hundred officers ninety percent of the country what does this mean well this means that for the police operations that means you have three shifts there's 30 police imagine in your day-to-day crime-fighting activity if there was you know one one thief that was a pickpocket and took first from someone but today with the level of activity we have that we have armed commandos how can they answer how can they respond 30 people for the entire community and that's 90 percent of the area of the country okay so another important difference very important I insist it's a salary they receive our officers normally casinos yell all over the corruption we have to talk about corruption by inertia because this is tied initially to human beings it's automatic and especially in these systems in how these models were conceived if you look at this table you can see how much a municipal police may calculate here we estimate that a minimum salary the the floor the basic familiar it's five hundred dollars a month that's a base salary for a police officer that's the basic the minimum salary and that's not even what they had to be able to do their everyday activity so if you take that into account so here you see the five hundred dollars this is a deficit that all the police departments have in the salary for all of their employees this is how much they make that's not the actual cost of living that family has for his everyday activity yes oh this is a video and this subsidy is paid somehow it's corruption it's a crime somebody's paying for it because this is like a little train that is moving and somebody's paying for that gas either the government or the criminals or his corruption it's made somehow so being the minister of security I had to bring this to the attention of the House of Representatives at the Senate to show them what is the deficiency we have in their salaries so that a police officer can have the basic so that he can operate the minimum so that they can fight crime and I showed them the deficit there was and they said well it's a paradigm well he doesn't have any education so why should we pay them more and I said okay let's break this formula this historic formula because we considered that to be a police officer you maybe didn't have to study and you didn't have to be well ok let's break this paradigm then let's break people that are educated that are trained pay them the minimum salary so they are not corrupt and they can't be corrupted so that they can work legally and not be corrupt that was in 2007 this is still the same and this is key because corruption is not magic it is tied with the models and this has an impact on this scheme like I said this train moves back and forth and somebody's paying for the gas and the snake is paying for that gas and the salary and I insist the salaries because the patrol cars the operations the cost that all these general costs all the basics so there's a lot of loss another aspect that is also tied with violence is something very important they come even more important at the time in Mexico with the history of the country they abused and used the military police to help the police the regular police officers in the 70s the 60s the 80s even in the 90s so historically they actually have substance up city for the police and then in 94 until 2000 they tried to reach further and defeat crime they talked even to have a Special Forces from the Air Force to have this elite as if it was here you know like the seals or something like that a delta isn't here to fight crime and they did there were areas where there was more criminal activity and geographically speaking in the country and that those military the police forces taking action in police areas in this corrupt area they became corrupt as well yes and then those military actually the desertion of this military personnel personnel plus the criminal activity made it even worse it grew exponentially because those those are not weapons that police know how to use the ones that I just showed you but yes the military yes they know how to use them and during that time period there was a great volume of desertion of the military personnel and they went to the other side to the criminal activity groups and then this made this even worse so these are many components that have something to do with this violence and then another thing is a social management is also important in undo is the growth in the drug use assumption and this shows you can see here on the screen the yellow females the blue is males and the other one is total how this is the age of people starting to use drugs as you can see it's going down and so this is a consumption market you can be in mali yahoo and also this is tied to the more consumption there is there's more market for it and then this adds and makes it worse to the crime violence that we are seeing now and then as well we are also saying that even when we try to explain violence the most important thing in this analysis aside from what I already said with respect to the weapons and drug consumption and the military desertion and increase in crime is the most important even though that was abandoned was the attention to the focus of the political actors from the legislative and the executive branches with the community was abandoned so the social management where the community was abandoned so many times in your day to day in the people in order to pay to get a permit or to rent commercial space they had to interact with the criminals which normally was something that used to be managed by the political actors whether it is in the legislative branch the house of representatives senators the people that were in charge of the social aspect they were the ones that were in charge and there's a vacuum that appeared when they abandoned the community it was taken up by the criminals and they gained terrain and they become social actors of this official activity and they took control in areas where there was a high crime rate and that's what happened and this had a great impact and it created this process that is becoming even more and more difficult to continue so for this exercise una una vez comparative Oh also you can see your comparative analysis to see Kim illusion in mundo what are the models in the world well that may be not the same but a similar scheme as what happened in Mexico and then we identified four cities New York
hicago the u.s. in the US and Medellin in Colombia and Palermo in Italy these cities had similar situations what happened in Mexico with growth growth in criminal activity and we wanted to compare this bring this in the book it's explained in detail but just to give you an idea of what I'm talking about just tell you can see here here in general terms in New York for example of course you'll have a reference for that and you know they had a very similar problem with different different kinds of crime but more social aspects we analyzed the impact to the social aspect of it now how did they address it executive so it's producing the influence yeah this shows the growth of violence in each city red is New York below we have years see how this grows in New York then you can see Chicago managing in all the three cases once these criminal activity has grown like it has in Mexico what these cities did they created government programs in different sectors in New York they had this year low tolerance program how to stop these crimes from the baseline for example what to do how to stop even small crimes - and you've got Chicago we have social programs educational programs that together we can program social programs educational programs involving communities and police reengineering and in machine it was a different national scheme they create a national police reform the National Police with to reform justice but what was different the model was more focused the prosecutors was to empower the judges give them more power even anonymous attaches so that they could not be detected this gave them a lot of strength and they were able to bring to justice the criminal mafias Palermo the program was with prosecutors more than with the police this bra forty watts to show that how in all cases when the city's and governor's violence grows it grows in all cases five to six years and then after these programs are implemented once they have been implemented the violence begins to decline in a different way the most efficient was New York was the one that declined quickest and the slowest was machine but in all cases you can see the curve how the violence declined after the programs were implemented where we identified the most important stages in these processes in this model you can see some important points the first point there is we identify the criminal evolution high impact violence extortion homicide kidnapping when we see this Authority reacts all relate different focuses but here we see how there is resistance the criminal activity they don't want to lose ground they don't want to lose control of their criminal operations this continues until there's a breaking point which is important though until this date is superior in operating capacity and in territorial coverage this is the breaking point when the state has this capacity here the trajectory changes in all cases this breaking point is identified this varies according to the city's New York was the shortest machine was took the longest after that after that the important thing is to combat the causes of crime with social programs such as education health and that theme this trend in the long run this is what has happened in the world I want to show you I want you to come now remember this was the Mexican one yeah we've got 2008 violence escalates here we reach the breaking point when the state reaches the point that has superior capacity more force greater coverage and then it begins to decline the same as the other graph and now it's the question that you will all be asking so well what happened this is 2014 Republican public policy is defined by a secretariat that was in charge of that they removed this this program was called like a former Mexico and many of those programs were no longer implemented that Secretariat is closed down there's less budget and so this fight against crime is lowered so this leads to the creation of self defenses and this generates this new phenomenon which we know today the increase and so today Mexico is on that path again the same process okay when the about this and let it go after this what happens is so where do we go yes you know as Tony explained there has been election in Mexico last year and if we put a new president and train manuel lopez obrador and i want to point out something important this election in terms of voting for president president in mexico was in the november for more than six president had not won with more than 50% this current president one with 53.9% more than half the votes this is the first time in 30 years that a president has been so legitimized by the social vote and why security is a very important matter if you can see the proportion prior presidents had said he saw one with 48 percent Fox Quezada only 42 percent Calderon 35 percent I was Minister at that time it was very complex because if without that legitimacy without that backing in the political sphere to combat secure in crime is more difficult Pena only 38 percent votes having said this as far as security something that is important most important the most important thing is security as a concept is that by no society authority innocent ego Allah says detention is the basis for combating crime and this was be done by society so the great challenge is to articulate the curve the capacity that states or governments have to bring into line this early detection prompt detection of crime generated by society with the capacity of the government when this doesn't work the spine of this work in the fight against crime criminals take advantage of this they will get in the middle and break that attack the articulation and that is why the importance of the legitimacy in the voting because if a president has legitimacy this will give him margin to apply strong policies as far as security if he's backed and carry out this prompt crime detection the result would be much much better here we can see the different elements for this concept historically we have seen a reactive model in the past when there was military personnel in a place that would inhibit criminals nowadays they were shooted military personnel that concept no longer is enough to deter crime now we have to create new precepts there's a new thesis a new model defines for minimum stages in planning information gathering analysis and implementation those stages generate a process which is an intelligence spiral if you constantly go through these four stages to generate information analyzing implemented then this isn't a cycle this is a spiral which and I systematically go up if this is this way a system obliges me to increase in knowledge towards my objective that's why we need solid institutions part of my presentation is based on these precepts one knows that I mean the using the tools thomas kuhn analog here party stuff wiggle jerry's fire this component this we need for this fire we need three components oxygen fuel and heat and something important for this to interact we need feel heat after 25 years i've seen this all over the world and I've been with the security ministry I've been in security for many years I've worked abroad I've worked in intelligence for many years thesis to explain why did this happened at Mexico and not only in Mexico all over Latin America and also parts of Asia but why in the case of Mexico three things fuel oxidants and spa for this violence to exist we need three components illicit illegal illicit markets criminal logistics and institutional weakness and they have to interact component if I remove one of those components as if this were fire if if I take one away it will not exist what extinct which is what is a fire extinguisher when I put out a fire what happens when we correct this this takes the place of oxygen so if we have fuel oxygen and the flame but if I remove one of those components the fire will go out so what can I do to reduce the phenomenon of violence illicit markets criminal organization and institutional weakness this is supports the criminal activities we have today Mexico in the long term we have to identify the causes of crime and they are identified in the sectors of education health economy and Social Development this takes it into the long term now I would show you this we are going to show you this is the class index this is a tool we have which allows us to calculate for the whole world I can this is calculated for Mexico this index alibi let's say Seminole sees it goes from 6 to minus 6 it has algorithms that calculate these magnitudes and it has a scale from 6 to minus 6 but in practical terms if I remove this theoretical part it goes from 2 to minus 2 because there is no end stages completely go to completely bad so usually we go from plus 2 to minus T now you can see in general terms which is the magnitude each area of the country with the index with its color and I can see over time I can go back two years to compare how this phenomenon with behaves afterwards if I want to see what is the racking for the country for the national behavior I can go back to this graph this is corrected on a daily basis and it's closed every week I can see the magnet cute each one of these within the Gladwell index the important thing here is that I can separate indicators and variables in a transactional way if I take political social variables I can see which is one I can see in the ranking which is the behavior of those variables for example if I take security and justice which is the entity has the best circumstance of those variables and I can identify which is the best position for those variables but something there's one more thing that is more important here I can see going back to the idea of a fire I want to measure violence and criminal activity illicit markets the elective criminologist takes institutional decline I can measure with this ratio the center outer is the best one happening the red line is the national average you can see how the national average works when we look at illicit markets and the criminal logistics I can do it at a national du dissident seat in a national level or at an international level I can compare with Washington to see where's the strengths or the weaknesses where to direct our efforts to lower a variable maybe I can't remove one component of the variable maybe I can have an effect on the illicit markets or on the criminal logistics this is for the part of components this is for the crimes this would be the indirect impact in how each variable impacts and security education investment yeah I could see a cube political social variables so justice if I hear I could see the economic and financial aspects yellow is social political they the green security justice it tells me how important each sector is where is the strength in each one of these areas and the weaknesses and here in the case of components to identify illicit markets criminal logistics I can see which entity is the best circumstance in each of these three variables and the same for the criminal and violence aspect and what is the most important part of all this here we have a thousand three hundred and twenty eight indicators a thousand six hundred and twenty indicators each line is an indicator yellow are social political blue security and justice the red where the morning him blow I'm going to take one example the energy the one that is in fashion in Mexico as you know Mexico here the theft of fuel it has been growing when I was in the United States I was able to see with camp in Houston they are investing in the possibility of participating in oil pipelines to Mexico but they want people to look after these pipelines because there are people who are stealing oil so they took me along to explain to them about that they can't go to Mexico arm that is illegal but the second place imagine what how do we deploy troops to look after five lines it's unthinkable unthinkable imagine we talked of three components in this is not its criminal logistics and institutional weakness supposing they already perforated the pipeline they've removed the fuel they've got it in barrels then they have to transport them that would be the criminal logistics supposing they're stealing oil from lorries if I take that variable and I choose it within this system and on the Left I can see in the year 2000 I want to see the behavior throughout time what happened from 2000 today this dot has nearly 20 years older begins and the year 2000 on the Left I don't know if you can see it no I think you can't see Latinas is theft of oil containers this data then is practically it comes is twenty years there is a correlation factor of point seventy four 0.72 what does this mean for those of you who are economists there's a good correlation point four point three which is thirty forty percent of the correlation and they point out there there is efficiency of correlation there it's point seven of every three trucks that have been robbed are related to theft of oil I can see or to the entities that are participating in this theft here you can see where we have the greatest amount of theft of oil yes it could sighs where we have the most amount of theft is where we have the greatest amount of theft of oil trucks wet trucks have been and Eagle would be this area so what is easier today you saw that they were into the university you could see yeah so for example here you have skateboards or bicycles with a satellite satellite key that you can use and it would be easier to try to fight the stolen trucks than oil because if you would take that away then how will they be able to move this millions of barrels of oil that were stolen and they can with you so it's like the extinguisher like I said earlier if you stop the oxygen there's no more fire and this is the same here this is to identify where do you best dedicate your efforts to what are the components that I can access so that I can cut the oxygen from this problem and this is a tool that is very useful and this is data that's been in existence for 20 years almost 18 years and these are indicators that are useful at an international level from the World Bank and from other international organizations analyzed at a state and national level to calculate the impact for each indicator and the factor that it has what impact it has on the society to be able to focus on security I think that I'm on time my time is good so thank you for that anyway thank you very much [Applause] thank you very much you know let me I'm sure that a lot of the the gal or guest and I want to know what what's coming up as well and what to expect under the Lopez Obrador administration so I have a couple of questions for you and one of them is President Lopez Obrador has proposed the creation of a national guard this mix of police force taken out of the military a lot of soldiers that are going to be converted into this National Guard which is going to function as a police force but at the same time it's going to not be placed in the ministry for public safety and security but it's going to be under military command what do you think about this scheme this particular structure well do you think it'll work do you think it's something that that is different innovative and that can actually solve the issue of organized crime or general crime and violence in Mexico well a middle a district are you okay this government has a huge legit a legitimacy due to the voting the percentage of people who voted but to answer your question from a technical standpoint the experience not only Mexico but at a world wide level this has been used and it was used in Latin America and in Mexico it was used in the 70s and the 80s and even when I was a minister of security a part of my process was to have that model with the Nationals armed with the military but the history with respect to security in the world all countries had the Armed Forces before security but then they all realized that this was very difficult to have armed forces interacting with the society at large because their training their doctrine their training does not go hand in hand with the police training is different than the Air Force and in Europe specifically they started this transition where they created the National Guard with a different model now this doesn't me
n that there may not be armed forces in the police force it's a different framework from a technical standpoint and there's a difference in the type of weapons the type of logistics and operations on the street their movement and their operations that's completely different but what's important here Tony is that the experience worldwide not just in Mexico it happened in Spain and France everywhere it happened in Mexico as well is that it's a great it's really an issue for the armed forces it creates this deterioration in the armed forces and it has been proven historically not only in Mexico but throughout the world but this deterioration when they interact with society with a community in the public it's a negative always a negative impact because using force is done for it is for something else and if you look at the weapons that the Armed Forces used compared to the police that's enough for you to see that a soldier has a maybe 72 it's like this bank the the bullet will cure you improve it I want to save somebody stealing in a market you know groceries you can't shoot at them with this size bullet right so from a technical standpoint is different so yes I insist also in Mexico Mexico and all over the world like I said it's starts the process it's used for that in Mexico during the 70s 80s 90s we did that but the challenge is how do you transition into creating capacity in the police force so that they can have this interaction the social interaction and that's why it's important the most important what I said earlier is to detect early the crime articulated with society if you don't have this articulation this this two-way street you can't beat it and because when you detect it the intelligence the key is a society of people if that's not articulated properly with authority then you cannot respond to it in the US for example you see it with the FBI and there's some people that I'm happy to see here from the FBI the FBI has a great capacity of detecting fugitives and that helps society many of them it's due to the positive impact that the FBI has with the people people will call them in when they find a fugitive that's because they have a good relation that's because they have a good interaction with the community and that same thing so in terms specifically technical terms I think for Mexico this exercise was done in the 70s was done in the 80s was done in the 90s evolution in the 90s was that from the federal police they had this evolution of going to a military force to turn them into a police force and then incorporate some people that have different different training we need a lot of systems now a lot of information now you can't just cover a certain area a massive coverage and that's enough before the presence of a police officer was enough now it doesn't work that's not enough it doesn't deter crime they even shoot back at them and that has changed that's why I'm saying this phenomenon is different so you have to you you can but in the long term this creates a deterioration in the interaction with the community and this doesn't work and this is also deterioration for the forces all the the armed forces as well and so in general this has to evolve and from what I have seen in my experience was exactly to try to move from this evolution of the military service and move to a civil service and throughout the world all the democratic countries there isn't one where the police is in charge the the people in charge are the Armed Forces it's just doesn't it doesn't work that way in all the world you know that equals about I don't know exactly what they're trying to plan with a National Guard I don't know but what I've seen with respect the media and people that have shared this went great for supposed to involve the Armed Forces I do not share this thought I was in charge of managing this to have armed forces working with police a practical and I will say just in a practical sense just today let's say the model works in the day to day operation and a military police work for example with a huge weapon see somebody trying to pickpocket someone on a bus for example today that military police would have to grab that take them to the Ministry of the Interior and that legal process just that implies that the military force has to be involved in a scheme where he's not trained to do that or it's not involved in that process at all you're taking them away from the operational logistics which is where they're trained be able because that's what they have to do in order to arrest this specific thing for example so then they're gonna move into a civil department and then that means that you have to create a civil public force which is a different process so in all cases use Armed Forces and security is the first you can miss data in Mexico I think this has evolved it was done in the 80s and the 70s and the 90s like I said I think you have to Train police officers with a different and in Mexico I think that's the challenge when I got there and max we'll say 2006 to the Secretariat nobody got me that I had a military Brigade that I had to receive 6,000 of them from the military police that worked for the Federal Police and when I delivered I delivered 37,000 million Federal Police and they were all civil and some of them were military that were retired and they incorporated into the civil service regime to participate as police but there were some young men that were engineers for cybersecurity for operational and even psychologists for kidnapping sociologists to treat something good all their other criminals lawyers all the technical education so that they can reach to the entire spectrum of security you can't just have an operative force if you don't have the analysis so that you can reach to where you need to reach so that's why I don't know the entire scheme but from what I've seen from a technical aspect it needs components that need to be added because that's not enough there's other components that have to be involved I read recently that they will recover lapa Dora Mexico and that was a system where at the national level we they were articulating all criminal activity and communication throughout the country for the u.s. maybe that's normal but for us it's not so in order to share data from a license plate but from somewhere everybody has data information from state to state so they have to share it a new joint level and that that they used to do it with it was shared work with all the states look at or criminal any last round checks etc no that's a basis in order to be able to fight crime if that doesn't work that's like being out in the sea without a compass you may be very powerful but if you don't know where you're going then you can't get anywhere so that's why on that perspective you need certain capabilities and skills and I think they're gonna redo because the last government they just took that out and now and they have recreated the Secretariat and I think that's very valuable and I mean I mean in favor of that to recreate the Secretariat it's important it's incredible to think that it just fell apart and they they decided to take it away but I do not agree with a five-level Iike the publican Accola security has not does not have to be in charge of the armored forces because I'm a different like I said for me there's a huge deterioration and it doesn't work to have the Armed Forces and at the end of the day they have to be civil with the people working when you go to a trial for example it's going to end up into a process so you have to go to the beginning to find out how you evolved to have this police force that is ready for that and Mexico Department has important an important number of young people that could be trained to do it for example the u.s. to go to the FBI you have to have a masters or a PhD in Europe it's the same thing while in Mexico it should be you have to have some sort of university degree so these people train then they can be trained to cyber security operational intelligence risk management kidnapping etcetera there is an offer of young people that can be incorporated that I believe in that what I believe in Mexico has that capacity to do that and I think that is the model then it would be more interesting and I think that obviously there's a lot of work to be done but that's what I think question that I think it's very important and that is the the structure me you spent many years and you spent certainly six years under the container administration structuring the public safety and security apparatus in Mexico Intelligence plataforma Mexico and others the Federal Police and the Ministry for Public Safety and security the SSP so you spent a lot of time articulating that obviously there were some issues in articulating the the security strategy with the governors and the mayors so the the three the federal three levels of government we're difficult mr. Lopez Obrador is proposing a new Secretariat of Public Safety and security and the Intelligence Agency will be in it the Federal Police will be under the military and then you got the pickier which is the Attorney General's Office and then you got Human Rights in the Interior Minister go or Nancy on how what do you see here in this new restructuring what what's what's off with this structure that they're proposing to deal with public safety and security you think it'll work but firstly I don't know in detail this proposal just what's public is what I know that it is very different national security is different from public safety they're two different things so with the SSN with it has to do with national security many countries there are institutions that are related to them and they have completely different tasks than public there may be some overlap and there may be some joint tasks but they are different faces and different concepts in their initial conception their different rose different completely different tracks throughout the world not just in Mexico you go and you see there's some that are tied with public safety and some with national security they're not collapsed they're not the same so I think that there should be two different institutions I think that's a good idea for an institutional model I think that's important that has to be done to be able to govern I don't know and I don't know the detail how the SSN will end because I don't think that it's been completely you'll be okay thought-out yeah but maybe it may change name but there will be an entity in charge of national security the government needs it the state needs it I don't know what it's gonna be called but on the other hand it's again throughout the world this happens there isn't one democratic nation that has the responsibility of public safety in the hands of the Armed Forces additionally it's such a delicate issue in the 70s it was such a delicate issue that at that time they legislated to exactly forbid the use of Armed Forces and the police because they realize the wear and tear the deterioration this meant for the Armed Forces and for the community because this interaction over time generates the duration for both parties this has been proven throughout the world that's why the laws were passed to this so that the Armed Forces do not participate from the civil society not only in Mexico throughout the world and that's why at the end of the day no processes they've used this in the beginning but then they use the civil the civil society because that's the model that were and this institutional definition I don't know exactly how they're gonna do it like I said all I know is what's public I don't know the details but at the end of the day for the day-to-day management of Public Safety it's very detailed it's specific it requires a lot of attention there's a completely different from the Armed Forces so that's why you need something specific for national security and something specific for public safety because this is going to be defined but how does the SSN and how does the Secretariat end up working what they're going to do because today make this for example to bring a criminal in front of a judge you have to sign it has to be a police officer that's science if there's a military police there they have to sign that and then they have to come and appear in the trial for example this will change that whole institution for me before I open it to the rest of the audience here so when you look at the administration the Lopez Obrador administration the whole landscape you mentioned that one of the most important assets that they have is their political capital the political capital that comes from 53 percent of the national vote they must have four you must have thought about various strengths and weaknesses that they have just taking a quick look bird's-eye view so to speak of the administration what are the strengths that you see that they have to tackle this problem and what are the weaknesses that you see that they have we're well into the labarda mobile you say you went away is the strongest point is the legitimacy that is something very valuable the possibility the dis legitimacy gives them wait Mexico hasn't had their when a president has one like this for more than 30 years Congress they haven't had a Congress with so much representation of their own party in this has not existed for 30 years in Mexico this will give them an incredible scope even at the level of making laws security Public Safety is a very important point and with this backing this is very very important when society is equity participates voting that inertia of voting if it's related to prompt detection of crime and if that is dealt with that will stop crime right for that the world I consider this one of the great strengths conceptually speaking Bullock a mentality and I suppose not knowing you not everything is already being defined the legal changes haven't been made yet but policia comers to make the Armed Forces into policing forces that will need to deterioration and that happens all over the world not only in Mexico that happened in Spain in France it has happened in Mexico in Latin America in Chile in Argentina all over the world this has happened this has already been proven by all countries Mexico also we have used armed forces to transition to a civil civic model but this can be a weak point now I've already lived through this I understand the urgency of this problem I've already lived through this situation but I think the trend has to be the focus on the civilian aspect in public safety Mexico has universities that have a great supply of graduates and if these young people that are trained and if can join the public safety and what the impact will be much greater if I want to address the criminality today what is important important ways to do this in in a way in offices it's not only deploying forces at a territorial but we also need to do a lot of work in our offices we need people which are highly trained and Mexico has got trained beautiful I think that would be the right approach another complex matter is that the Mexican state must pay the operative costs to that public safety of the country needs otherwise somebody else will pay for it call it corruption call it the criminals whatever because that car moves and somebody puts gas so either the state does this so it will control the way the car morphs or somebody else will do it so I think they should be careful of this right let's pick up a couple of questions from the audience George and then either of the speakers could comment on the possible use of the mobile Internet the mobile Internet to monitor vehicles or to monitor people and also the use of artificial intelligence in some way as a security measure and also I'm thinking that the mobile internet and with the use of [Music] smartphones that could be distributed to populations with high incidence of criminal behavior like in gasoline Watchi cola dos then it could have an economic multiplier effect is opening up people to to the data resources of the internet here and then we'll go to where no doubt yes absolutely I share your perspective that's why I think we should have a broad way of looking at this all over the world today the example we mentioned about the theft of trucks if we had a sat
llite transponder on each of those trucks that would be the end of this days the satellite transponders kids skates have I've seen how kids throw their skates and then they tell the application on their phone what does they transponder what does that transponder cost if we use this if we put them on the trucks that would be the end of their set of trucks I think that safety is related to many components we have to see in which component needs more technology what you say is key this is related to communications the use of Internet and other resources we have weak if we use make use of everything we could reduce criminal activity transponders prompt detection reports citizen reports for example today social networks also play an important role in the early detection of criminal activity if we look at the amount of reports that come from society they don't reach the DA's office or the prosecutor's office but they're there on the internet we have gone through certain exercises to see this we can identify a lot just by if we look at the communications which are reporting crimes even before they reach the DA's office we can see a lot this is important as you say and I do I share your thought thank you very much mr. secretary in your opening remarks you mentioned the big reduction in murders in Medellin it wasn't entirely result of it but Plan Colombia was part of the what led to the turnaround in Colombia obviously they face massive rates of narco violence and also a civil war and the prolonged Colombia allowed for massive degree of American involvement billions of dollars put towards eradication of poppies of drugs retreating of both the military and the police exchanges of intelligence services training of special forces in Mexico if things got bad enough would that ever be a possibility or is the political legacy of American interference and and invasion of Mexico the you know us-mexican war in 1840s and 50s and say after the you know mexican independence is that too too far a bridge cross would that be something Mexico would ever consider and if a president wants to do it would they lose they're basically at the next election well I mean I don't know it's only one term but would it be impossible yes that's important thank you for the question Tom knows a lot about this because he was involved and he knows much about it first I was for 25 years in the security area and I know the case of Colombia very well as far as Mexico we have had a lot of communication with your colleagues in the United States in all those agencies that are open FBI DEA or whatever we haven't had great great cooperation in key areas which have allowed us to combat crime in important areas my experience in my experience the most important part as far as combating crime is intelligence I think that is extremely important in terms of interaction possibilities integration as far as Mexico my experience is that this is like the the pipelines the Pemex pipelines if they want to stop the theft of oil where the forces in it all over the territory colleagues were telling me of ex military forces we use to combat this no this is unthinkable there's no way that you can have people deployed to take care of the pipelines at something couple it's absurd it's absurd the problem isn't in the forces the amount of forces because if you say the bad ones are over there okay well we can get there no all the concepts we have to how do we generate public safety for mothers we have to train the police adequately train prepare them when I was in charge of the police force for example they were all certified like the FBI they had to be trained by the FBI certificate of the confianza so we needed people I want people that are technically trained like the FBI than the DEA and those agencies so I think that the important part is to share intelligence training and to share privileged information but in my experience we build integral capacities in public safety we can gain how do how do we build market how do we build a football stadium or a school or see that what is for example we converted them straight on for many years but we learned after we had done so implemented social programs so the challenge is first to have the capacity to identify where are specific components to address the variable that we think is the most important and second to identify the components necessary to have the logistics to that and United States and my 25 years experience has been a great ally great ally the United States and my experience during my time in charge of the national security police the United States has been a great ally in training certifying building trust etc they have always been a great great ally there is an enormous potential there which I think we should tap into and increase as far as this force is increasing forces know that I do not agree but that's not the right approach Colombia's case was very different there they needed the forces for the harvest for the crafts they needed to they needed the helicopters that was a different case that totally different cases Colombia in the nineties but Colombia nowadays is having problems again related to those processes because in the long run if we want this to last in the long run we have to go to the causes of the crime if we solve that there will be no long term so we have to look at the components of causes that lead to those crimes for this to last in the long run close but I'll take one more question here and then I think it's a lot of time yeah poor fellow ultimately what percentage of the Mexican crime is related directly or indirectly to u.s. drug consumption and what how will a mlo address that factor I can give you some ideas so when I was in charge but when I was in charge things have changed quite a lot and quite a lot something important in the current situation of Mexico I mentioned this America and I repeat when we talk about drugs for example templo de marijuana there was a debate about marijuana where the public would debate on that initial argument yes was that if this was legalized this would reduce violence then that was the initial debate but then it was migrated to the fact that this was related to health why do I say this because as far as security the drugs the issue of drugs is part of the illicit markets when this is more profitable than something else this is like a magnet like any entrepreneur or businessman they are always looking for the greatest profitability and that is where they will go so do the criminals they are looking and seeking for the market it is most profitable in my in Mexico for example the evolution of drug trafficking I was involved in 60 70s at that time in Mexico there was contraband smuggling before there was smuggling there was a restrictive policy in economic people we used to take to Mexico we would take clothes the general contraband smuggled goods in general clothes television sets or whatever and that wasn't considered a crime that was more or less accepted but that kind of smuggling created criminal logistics the creative roles from north to south which were taken up later on by drug traffickers from south to north those who started drug trafficking had previously been smugglers they moved to the more profitable illegal market in Mexico this time sometime back there was a traffic of immigrants that was so profitable there was people smuggling they were important structures human trafficking was important before but now this has been so profitable when you talk about what is the proportion the importance of drugs nowadays criminal activity in Mexico in the past was related to that was historical perspective but that's no longer that way activity is taking part in local crimes this is part of the violence that has grown in Mexico because they are related to organized crime such as extortion kidnapping this began to has begun to impact society and that proportion has changed before we said no they're criminals then drug traffickers vectors but that is not the same today nowadays the stealing of oil is related to people who are in drug trafficking because it all depends where is the most profitable market and that was where the criminals would go if I if I legalize marijuana will the criminal structures disappear no they'll move to the next illegal market otherwise they would dissolve what for about of workers so the proportion in the past was one like you mentioned it was related drug trafficking but nowadays it's no longer that way now it's related to extortion on my side kidnapping related to local criminals before they would steal people wouldn't attack you in the street with a with a powerful weapon nowadays they will use an ak-47 with help me thank our guest thank you very much everyone
