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[Music] hello I'm Brian bolo thank you for joining us for this December 13th Friday December 13th edition of fedwatch what could go wrong right um two big data points came out today and some interesting little tidbits but it looks like we're going to get another rate decline in uh December December 18th is when they are going to make their announcement and it's worthwhile looking at those data points though as we head into December 18th because it's the all items Consumer Price Index uh is running at 2.7% and that's I mean that's the cover if I was the Federal Reserve for lowering interest rates because that's close enough to the 2.5 that is a really sweet spot for the econ economy um food was only up 2.4% energy was down 3.2% so you know for your everyday person um those are good numbers but core inflation remains at 3.3% um so that's still above their comfort level shelter continues to be a problem that's rent and Rental equivalency running 4.7% Medical Care running at 3.7% and transportation services is the larger bucket but what we're really talking about is motor vehicle repair at 5.7% and motor vehicle insurance up 12.7% those are numbers that I maybe the fed's acknowledging they can't beat down uh those factors are beyond their control unless they want to create a whole lot of unemployment which I don't think they want to do I don't think anybody believes that they want to do that that would be in violation of their dual mandate one thing to note and you'll see it in this month's ITR Trends report is that the 112 rated change for the Consumer Price Index uh edged up for the second consecutive month it's still technically in Phase C decline but it looks like that's wrapping up and we're shifting into the new phase b or at best a flat period this is about as good as it's going to get in terms of the inflation rate in other words is the way that it is looking to us for those of you that look at the details of the CPI you'll see that the not seasonally adjusted monthly number was down from the prior month that means nothing it's the rated change that really matters the decline was perfectly normal and the not seasonally adjusted data so don't read too much into that the PPI producer price index when we look at the final demand producer price index uh tells a different story that is up to 3.0% in September it was 2.0 in October it was 2.6 now it's 3.0 so that is beginning to climb already and it's running above the CPI this is a harbinger of more inflation to come I don't think it's going to make the FED back off of their decline in December but I think it is putting a a time limit on how long we can expect these declines and for us that's been mid 2025 for quite some time the core CP uh PP so that's backing out food and energy is at 3.5% higher than the Consumer Price Index core of 3.3 again that's a that's a tell that this it's about as good as it's going to be getting and if the producer price index is going up again it's a leading indicator to what to expect for the Consumer Price Index yet with all that Wall Street is uh got a 96.5% probability that the FED is going to lower interest rates another 25 basis points in December and for those of you who want lower interest rates sure hope you're right I hope they right this is a little tidbit I wanted you to notice though while the street is building in a decline a 96.5% probability of decline 25 basis points again you look at the 10-year bond yield and it's continuing to rise as of this morning was up to 4.37% it is not giving the indication of decline That Wall Street thinks is happening in the shortterm rate which is the Fed funds rate that's another indication that there isn't any big decline in interest rates um inflation or interest rates coming for that matter and that um you should be thinking strategically how are you're going to play the next round of inflation that we have been talking about December 17th ITR brother and I Allan we're going to be hosting an executive series webinar we're going to be talking about our 10-year outlook for the uh 10year government bond yield we're going to be looking at our 10-year outlook for mortgage rates the stock market besides just the economy and how you can build wealth over the next 10 years uh most effectively in our opinion so there's a lot going on I think pay attention to what the marketplace is saying more than what the Federal Reserve is doing and you'll have a better perspective of the next 18 to 24 months um make your move when the FED funds rate comes down to its lowest level again maybe mid 2025 um but then Lock and Load at that particular time because rates are likely going to be going higher thank you for watching this edition of fed watch we appreciate you and we will see see you next Friday [Music]