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all right ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the program this morning so we got some new economic numbers new jobs numbers employment numbers that came out a couple of days ago so I wanted to turn to dr. Michael Pak oh he is an Arkansas economist extraordinaire if you will also with us UALR Arkansas Economic Development Institute dr. Peck oh how are you doing sir absolutely so you you have this this blog post or in the blog site I want to encourage everybody to go to Arkansas economists calm because this is a place where you kind of give your thoughts in written form about you know what's happened with the job numbers that come in every month isn't it well that's right it's kind of my nerdy place to go talk about the numbers so if you're interested in following some of those details I encourage you to take a look at it so we are actually we're throwing this page up on the website right now we have this back on October the 18th Arkansas employment and unemployment September 2019 so what stands out what stands out to you dr. panko about these new numbers well I think one of the things that's interesting is that every month the news media trumpets the change in the unemployment rate or lack thereof and this time around was no different the unemployment rate be increased from three point four to three point five percent and one of the things I pointed out in my blog here is that that change has really only due to the fact that they rounded off to the nearest tenth but for really all practical purposes the unemployment rate was unchanged it's as a matter of fact if you carry out the calculation another digit as it went up from three point four four percent to three point four six percent so two one-hundredths of a percent the change in the number of employed and unemployed was really minuscule compared to the labor force of nearly 1.4 million so basically the news was no change when it comes to employment and unemployment yes I see that I see the graph right here that you have on there it's pretty good the Green Line is the official rate but if you just don't do the rounding then it's it pretty much stays the same and so you know that's certainly important so I mean that's obviously a good thing right record low unemployment is a good thing for the state that's right that's right that's that's really the story here is that the unemployment rate is low and continues to be below 4% it's statistically speaking all we can really say is it is below 4% and has been there for a couple of years now so complain about talked about this some of the underlying numbers here the household survey about the number of employed that says there was a decline there well yeah 552 exact number out of 1.3 million was the decline from September so and and then similarly the number of unemployed that went up by a grand total of 233 so again in the scheme of things those numbers are basically zero so about the past three months very little with any change in the number employed unemployed we're kind of on a plateau yeah it does seem that way seeing as she had local area unemployment statistics it's this pretty much the same and in the labor force in the against the national unemployment right what what about the national unemployment rate well the national unemployment rate declined by two tens last month again the magnitude isn't necessarily all that important but I guess what it means is now that the US and Arkansas are exactly at the same place but the point estimate about three and a half percent so conditions nationwide there's still a visible portion of the labor force out there the drop decade and I'm gonna go back to that the article here in a minute but by the way it's Arkansas economist dot-com but can you maybe remind us for people maybe that were paying attention during the recession you know the this this whole concept of dropping out of the employment force well right or unemployed of looking for a job if for any reason you're not actively seeking employment to go back to school retirement discouraged then you simply drop from the sample altogether and so we saw about 5% of the labor force disappear over the course of the Great Recession and it's aftermath part of that was expected baby boomers are retiring leaving the labor force for good about in Arkansas we saw about 2 percentage points larger decline than in the rest of the country and I think a lot of that had to do with the evaporation of manufacturing job that were dispersed around the state and we're seeing a little bit of a resurgence there which is good news but you know there's still some slack out there people who simply are encountered at the employment and unemployment statistics from the household survey on the payroll situs different we're seeing growth there a number of hires they've made we're seeing pretty good growth on that side of the ledger yeah I see here on the payroll employment the report on non-farm payroll employment for last month showed an increase of 1600 employees from August to September that's got to be a good sign so what what industries are we talking about there well health care that's pretty strong for several years now again demographics by boomers are retiring requiring more health care and leisure and hospitality especially in accommodation and food services business and professional services has also been one of the stronger areas in this economic expansion but that's shown considerable weakness in recent months largely in the administrative and services area which a lot of temporary workers are there so if we're seeing a little bit of slack and demand the workers that's probably the first place that would show up where employers are not hiring as many temp workers I also see construction here is is one of these and I feel like that's a good sign I will I will remember anytime you know I have these little random bits of information that pop into my head about previous you know political discussions but I remember back when they were trying to build the Keystone pipeline under the Obama administration people were timing how many jobs it would create in the president say well yeah those are just construction jobs they're temporary jobs and I was just like well that's the what the entire construction industry is you always build something and move on to something else that's right it's temporary until the next guy that comes along right now this help support construction employment and also the weather matters too or at the time of year we've had he has a pretty good feather in September that helps keep construction workers on the job it keeps things moving alone and both construction and manufacturing we're areas where we saw a lot of weakness during the Great Recession in the early years this expansion so the fact that we're staying positive year-over-year growth in those two areas is they're really good we're again we're talking with dr. Michael Paco Arkansas economist so we're talking about these recent numbers that came out so all in all I mean I'm looking at just this this line here the the non-farm payroll employment and really just all the graphs are pretty much you know they're trending in the right direction they're training where we want to see things go there and I think we might have talked about this last month you know there does seem to be some people on the political spectrum they're kind of hoping the economy takes a downturn so it will affect the 2020 election have you heard this philosophy reason just speculate as to how it might affect the upcoming elections there are some signs of at least some in national economy the web done different maturity of bonds for instance things like that but you know always been fairly steady I'll be a modest growth since about 2014 I really don't see any big stocks on the horizon those are sometimes very unexpected so you know unless the national economy turns down and pulls us down with it I think continued modest growth outlook for Arkansas yeah and that's that's definitely got to be a good thing so can I ask you one more question on the national front of things these record low unemployment numbers for minorities and you also mentioned manufacturing you know that's that's making a resurgence this is something that you know people have looked at is a something that needs to be corrected for a long time and I know it's speculative but deep why do you think now why we have these record low unemployment in minority communities now across the board you know and folks if you want to see what we just talked about but you want to maybe see it in written form because you didn't just remember everything that we said you can go to Arkansas economists calm and check it out now dr. pack oh do you just update this pretty much once a month based on the numbers or are there other updates throughout the moment there are personal income consumption expenditures yeah well I just want encourage people to go there it's a great resource you made me aware of it as well and we look forward to talking to you again next month sir oh that's great that's great and also on the economists site you can find information about the upcoming forecast presentation the 14th then you can sign up for that right now this is Arkansas economic forecast conference correct oh wow yeah I'm looking at this right now November 14th for breakfast to hear from experts who will give updates on economic conditions in the outlook of the region in the nation ok great ok well yeah absolutely folks its Arkansas economists calm you just click on that tab Arkansas economic forecast conference for more information about that coming up November 14th dr. Paco we appreciate it sir thank you so much