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how is the american economy doing according to the latest federal reserve system beige book most businesses remain optimistic regarding the next six to 12 months as activity has improved over the first part of 2021 but what about the cpg industry specifically [Music] [Applause] so this is a relatively new series of pieces of content that i've been putting together so if you're not all that familiar with what the federal reserve beige book is or what the information in it entails and why could it be even important to you as a cpg professional the beige book is a federal reserve system publication about current economic conditions across all 12 federal reserve districts it characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety of mostly qualitative information gathered directly from district sources so why should you care about a bunch of qualitative data coming straight from 12 federal reserve bank districts well most of the government data that we get is quantitative and it's sometimes really hard to kind of figure out what's behind what's the context behind some of those numbers to really understand how to apply it how to actually take that data and move it into information with only a few clicks of your mouse you can then open up your national distribution your national marketing communication strategy and because of that sometimes you get kind of dragged into this thought of like it's a one-size-fits-all approach but the coca-19 effect really kind of proved that the american economy is very much regional in a lot of senses there's a lot of different things that happen across these 12 federal reserve bank districts that are diverse then the other one and depending on kind of where you are or where you're positioned your brand and the retail channel physical retailers you need to kind of understand some of this information so some of these things really add some depth to some of the strategies that you're working on some of the tactics you're working on some of these things sometimes can be like leading indicators of what's going to happen nationally so as these federal reserve beige books become more normalized as the economy becomes more normalized i'll probably kind of wean these videos off and just kind of touch back on them every maybe three or four beige books but at this point because of the kobe 19 pandemic and things that are happening economically around that things are changing on a dime so i'm trying to really highlight every single one of these beige book publications that come out every 45 days you guys won't want to read the you know x number of pages that these reports are they're kind of dry reading i enjoy dry reading so i will kind of pull the top five kind of highlights and kind of pull that into like cpg related grocery related e-commerce kind of just consumer retail consumer brand information and really kind of drill that down and give you guys some commentary some added insights that i think would be extremely insightful for any professional in this space but before i kind of get into diving into like those five highlights i did want to give you guys some extra economic data some more quantitative data maybe you've missed these recently there's both a large jobs report that came out and there was also a retail numbers that came out from the u.s census bureau firstly looking at the u.s census bureau for the month of january consumers increased their monthly spending in january with retail sales totaling 568.2 billion dollars an increase of 5.3 from the previous month and this was up 7.4 percent from the previous january in 2020. drilling down to more cpg related data grocery sales were up 2.5 month over month and they were up 11.4 year over year additionally e-commerce sales which on the chart is on a non-store related retail those continue to be strong growing 11 from the previous month and 28.7 year-over-year and additionally if you did look at the recent jobs report that came out there was some pretty decent numbers over the expectations that most economists and analysts kind of put out there most of those jobs were coming from i think some of like the hospitality spaces so a lot of those like reopening type of businesses that regulations in some states or just allowance of the capacity to kind of increase that hiring is going to kind of come back as quick as possible if you do kind of drill down a little bit further into those jobs reports pass just like the headlines you'll see that the women's and then also like minorities are still struggling to both find employment and some of their labor statistics for like pay and things of that nature i'll touch on a little bit more of those things in the beige book highlights the first beige book highlight i wanted to bring to you guys comes from the new york federal reserve bank and they report that consumer spending has remained sluggish thus far in 2021 retailers largely reported that sales have been flat at depressed levels however retail contacts have been substantially more optimistic about the near-term outcome additionally consumer confidence among residents in the middle atlantic region which is new york new jersey and pennsylvania those have fallen to a multi-level low in november and december but they have rebounded moderately in january just kind of give you guys some more information in terms of maybe what that kind of means though the actual interviews some of maybe the retail numbers that this federal reserve bank has access to in their district those have been kind of sluggish still they haven't really seen some of that consumer spending come back to the point that you might see in some of these other districts but they did kind of give us a little bit of an insight around consumer confidence and consumer confidence is important because as people feel confident that both their jobs are coming back or they have their jobs they are going to keep their jobs their pay is going to stay strong maybe there's some government stimulus and things coming up that they feel confident that's going to pass a lot of that stuff is like a forward leaning indicator it's something that should show improvement in spending over the next report so we'll kind of pay attention to that with the next piece of content that i create but the next federal reserve district highlight that i wanted to bring to you guys comes from the richmond federal reserve bank and they report shipping volumes strengthened somewhat from already high levels since the last report with import volumes remaining well above export volumes contacts reported strong growth in imports and modest growth and exports noting export growth was constrained by a shortage of shipping containers import volumes of perishable food were particularly high and airport contact reported that there's not enough cargo planes to meet demand leading to companies using passenger planes for cargo shipments the richmond district reports trucking volumes rose moderately in recent weeks companies were unable to meet demand and had to turn away business as driver shortages and delays and acquiring new and replacement trailers limited capacity shipping rates increased and customers offered to even pay extra to have their goods shipped firms saw increased shipments in a broad range of goods so i keep including the richmond federal reserve district because they really go deep into some of the logistics some different freight modalities so they're talking about how the sea freight has been a struggle they're lacking containers when you move into trucking again the supply is not able to meet the demand at this point as goods move around more as consumers start to consume more goods over the services and experiences that had been driving the economy over the last several years and similarly if you look at just like air freight they're having to get creative and use passenger airlines as maybe some of those different flights are not being filled up as much from a weight perspective with actual consumers in those seats using those so trying to get around this however way possible you do see amazon really kind of trying to buy up as many planes as possible because they understand they can't really meet their demand everybody's trying to meet this elevated demand especially with e-commerce growing and goods kind of rolling around in parcels over pallets and truckloads so we're going to kind of keep an eye on that because that's going to be a district that tends to give us the most detail on logistic modalities and this continues to kind of be a struggle across the consumer brand and consumer retail space the next federal reserve district that i want to talk about and highlight is from chicago they saw spending increase moderately on balance over the reporting period e-commerce continued to be strong but contacts also noted an increase in brick and mortar sales as the decline in cover 19 cases made some consumers feel safer shopping in store on a agricultural input side corn soybean and wheat prices moved up during january and early february cattle and hog prices also moved up from the prior reporting period dairy prices were generally down and producers faced uncertainty regarding demand from government food programs in schools more generally contacts reported rising input costs for both crop farmers and livestock producers driven by higher fertilizer costs and feed prices so as most of the people that are following my content you're on the food and beverage side of cpg or just grocery retailers or consumer retailers so a lot of these like food input costs that really cause a lot of issues you are seeing a lot of the inflation and passing of costs to the consumers now coming from food and beverage they really just cannot hang on any longer they're going to have to really pass those on so you're going to see your monthly grocery bill go up unfortunately you're also seeing like a multiplier effect that could happen because the inputs of inputs so like the actual feed towards the livestock or items that go into growing the food those costs are going up so as those costs go up the price multiplies downstream to the consumer so a lot of things to kind of pay attention to there if you're a consumer watching this pay attention if you are a consumer packaged good brand that does play with a lot of these commodity food items really just kind of make sure that your margins are strong you have the right plans in place to talk to your retailers talk to your end consumers about this make sure you're communicating properly so nobody's really kind of shocked by this the next federal reserve highlight that i want to kind of bring up on the beige book is from minneapolis their federal reserve bank reports something a little bit special they actually were the first to bring and call out that minority and women-owned business enterprises reported negative revenue trends compared with the same period last year and with the previous quarter some expected modest improvement for the first quarter of 2021 a strong majority said federal stimulus programs have helped their business to some degree contacts noted hesitancy among immigrant business owners to apply for assistance out of concern for jeopardizing the immigration status of themselves or family members financial instability was high among these firms in a survey across the district a significantly higher share of minority and women-owned business enterprises said that they would be insolvent within three months if current economic conditions persisted compared with non-minority and women-owned business enterprises they were also more likely to have cut wages for staff or for themselves so minneapolis the kind of epicenter in terms of social injustice social uprising a lot of things that were happening obviously that was the epicenter at the beginning this is a national thing now but because minneapolis federal reserve bank realizes that they were kind of the epicenter from last year they took the lead to start to call out some of these minority and women-owned enterprise data a lot of times what happens is that because the proportion of these businesses are much smaller then if you're considering this like the traditionally owned white male business if the white male businesses are doing very well and only you know the 10 or 15 percent of minority and women-owned businesses are not doing all that well that data will actually get hidden because those outliers were just kind of brushed over and people won't really notice it unless you call them out so you have to measure these things you have to really kind of call these things out you look at the jobs report you look at just economic data as a whole and you go wow things are not doing all that bad but if you look at where the best performance is happening it's become like this k-shaped recovery kind of the rich got richer the people that were in the most privileged spaces got richer or got in a better position the ones that unfortunately were on the lower end of the economy the ones that weren't in the positions to kind of take advantage of some of the work from home or having those jobs that maybe stayed regardless of what happened with the pandemic the economic conditions with the pandemic a lot of those things really kind of got brushed under the rug at least initially because people were just looking at the high level macro data but as you drill down on all these data and the federal reserve banks just the economic kind of side of the government has really been put a lot of pressure on them to kind of call a lot of these things out and start to drill down on these things and this economic data is important to get called out because people tend to misbelieve or just kind of have this thought in their head that numbers are black and white and they tell all stories but if you're not actually bringing the right numbers out you're not bringing the right statistics forward you're not actually seeing the whole picture you're not actually seeing the story that can be told in the right way numbers really are just supporting or refuting a certain storyline so if you don't have all the data available to you you really don't know what is the right story or the wrong story a lot of times this is marketing statistics is a lot of times like marketing strategy it's not as pure as a lot of people kind of misconstrue so i'm happy that minneapolis and i hope a lot more the federal reserve district banks start to call out some of this minority and women-owned business enterprise data because i think it's going to be jarring to a lot of people when they start to see some of those numbers and how far they've fallen off how much they've been affected comparable to the non-women-owned and minority-owned business enterprises and the last federal reserve district bank highlight that i want to bring up is coming from san francisco and they reported that retail sales growth has improved overall partly owing the effect to the second round of stimulus relief transfers to households online sales continue to be strong as did sales of brick and mortar grocery and convenience stores contacts across the district noted ongoing supply chain disruptions and port delays especially for imports from china so i wanted to include the san francisco federal reserve bank district's commentary one because they were actually the only one that called out specifically the grocery and kind of the convenience retailing space so you're seeing those things grow both from an online and in-store perspective people are still going in droves and buying a lot of the food and beverage cpg products that are in those specific retail and sales channels that is supported with that us census bureau that i kind of brought up at the beginning of this piece of content also wanted to include it because it brought light to the east coast west coast in terms of the ports both san francisco and that district in terms of the west coast ports coming from maybe san francisco down to southern california you're seeing a lot of delays coming from those ports just like you were seeing from richmond and you're seeing those things cause a lot of supply chain disruptions to conclude this video like i did on the last one i actually wa t to bring up just kind of my favorite non-cpg related kind of business consumer point that a federal reserve district bank kind of talked about and this one is coming from the san francisco one and they reported that though most of the retailers talked about declining foot traffic still and just having compressed foot traffic they did have one southern california thrift store talk about how their store saw a rise in demand and a ton of new foot traffic and i think this really kind of drives a lot of things home both from like the circular economy sustainability a lot of things that got brought to light because of the pandemic they had some extra time to kind of consider what is important to me what can i do in my day-to-day life to change maybe that is actually buying thrift clothes maybe that is actually supporting the circular economy i also think because of the economic conditions in terms of recession and people really kind of struggling you also are seeing people trade down sometimes trading down means going into second-hand stores thrift stores buying up some of those products so i don't think this is necessarily a recessionary tale i think this is a secular thing that's happening a lot of people are really kind of supporting the circular economy they're really supporting a lot of things that go along with it so i think regardless of what happens with the strength of the economy i think this is an important thing to pay attention to and if you are looking for any type of businesses or business strategies or tactics aligning yourself with the circular economy is something that should be looked at very deeply thank you so much for watching this video if you want to help support me make sure you guys hit that thumbs up button on this video if this is the first time you've been introduced to my videos would love for you guys to be a part of my community by subscribing to my channel i upload several videos just like this weekly and if you guys want to connect further outside of this platform i do include all of my social media links down below i just want to thank you guys again for your time hopefully i gave you some value in return and we'll see you guys on the next video