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a recording can begin with with vigor um okay so ladies and gentlemen for those who have missed this part of the show um we've gone in and constructed a state chart here with was susceptible we have a message-based transition for infection we have a timeout based transition on and I'm going to ask you folks for the tour based transition to make it a mean of so this is going to be incubation period of time it's going to be three days for this incubation period on which is the same as the latent period three days here that's going to be the timeout then we have this contact spree which is going to be occurring at a certain contact weight per day okay I'm sorry yes you have to put many John thank you good call and for expense uh yeah we should probably do that I think it's gonna understand i even get modified that but yes we should do messages dot exposed messages don't exposed now for some reason it doesn't auto complete that and I don't quite understand why but this transition is is on in particular methods a message transition if the message messages got cured is received this one is message transition if the particular message messages got exposed is received is that okay okay ladies and gentlemen so we're much of the way through this now and soon will be rising to the to the key point okay um weaving together are learning for the past day how am I going to visually the fact that someone's in each of these states so I want this one to be green I want this one to be yellow and I want this one to be red how am I get it indicate this x variable so let's add in variable called color and what do we need to do for this guy here yep the line so get the yes that's true we're going to need to this one here for the man it's not easy we're going to but we're going to first do these colors 0 so this one is color equals green right you fed it through this before this is kind of old hat for you now color Rico's young but honestly a lot of any logic is like this you mastered the core things and you're doing a lot of things repeatedly so you can often remember it it's harder if you only use it very rarely but if you're using it fairly frequently a lot of the stuff is is very familiar so I set this color variable what sort of variables should this be this color variable should be a 1 it should be other end of what other time color for the capital C its initial value will make black without without privilege again this is color equals green color equals yellow color equals red and then just as as Nixon connect yeah um for this one here this person shape we need to go up to where do we find this person shaker can anyone tell me we go into patient who patient presentation person right shaped body right and then we have to go to fill color what do we have to do yeah we have to make it a dynamic value and we have to say color or I could say this color if they want to be particular line color okay again it will fill that in automatically if you don't okay great great ladies and gentlemen you built your walk through the infection model know maybe maybe fourth of a third at least okay great now a different co ladies and gentlemen is this is now treatment mediated this recovery where is it going to be mediated by guess what from whence whence is the Cure going to come from the begins with a capital C clinic it's going to come from the clinic because this person before the day is over will present for care at that clinic mark my words they're going to flow through that clinic they're going to secure care for that clinic okay okay there's to that grand finale that we are headed okay but we have a few bits still to go ladies and gentlemen we still need to put these people into a transmission network doing on okay so um okay great okay right okay I think I'm going to reverse this nice okay ladies and gentlemen I think I'm going to rehearse this thing from earlier today do you remember how we had these people some of them start some of them start in one stage some start in another state you remember how we did that how do we did that how do we do that yeah we haven't branch remember that okay so what we're going to do is to have a branch after this this here all right just like that are we okay with that and then what needs to happen suppose that people start either exposed or susceptible by default they'll start it's acceptable hence that's the kind of dotted or dashed branch dash it branch okay and then the other ladies and gentlemen will go too exposed okay here we go okay let you send runkelman here we go here they go too exposed okay now what's the dogged branch mean does anyone remember it's it's actually default the dotted one is default the solid one should be conditional so this guy there needs to be a condition and we should really label this we should really say like initially exposed transition and this ladies and gentlemen initially initially susceptible transition are we okay with that ladies and gentlemen okay ladies and um so what we need to do to create for this person so they know which way to go anyone remember I didn't remember how do they know which way to go we saw it this morning what do they need a close to variable it's a parameter and if the parameter it says is initially exposed do you remember this is initially exposed now I should note that while sparing you this this is important attack chua Lee takes a primitive that's was the initial state which state they start in I'm tempted to do that do you want to see that to a parameter says it if we would state to stardom it's rather than yes or no we can handle more cases what do you think okay so all we need to do here it's a matter of some honesty here so all we have to do is we have to create another transition out of this um which is going to go similarly but this one's going to go down to instead to this infective and symptomatic state here we go ready like that and this one's going to be called initially initially infected transition and this one will be also based on on a condition ok now this condition this is going to change things because our parameter set of being true or false what it's going to denote ladies and gentlemen is the initial state that they're going to be in the initial state ok now there's there's a couple ways we can do this a couple of ways but I'm going to do it one way that's a little bit lighter because we had a time we have to make time so this is going to be called initial state and ladies and gentlemen on this initial state is going to be yeah it's going to be an auction list okay are we ready this is going to have a certain Beauty to it okay okay um i'm kurt i will i will conjecture that you will see its beauty before the day is out oh ok ok indeed ok so ladies and gentlemen we're going to add at the cost of a little bit of magnetism or gonna we're going to secure beauty okay that's not not a bad trade-off time I to say so um okay okay this this is dead um okay um okay so ladies and gentlemen um ladies and gentlemen um ok so we are going to now proceed um with okay this is fun let's try that oh okay um so now we're going to proceed by defying an option list and the option list is going to actually specify the names of Beach of the state's the appropriate state so let's do it's going to go option list and this is going to be initial infection stain okay and we're going to have three things susceptible we're going to have I in exposed and we're going to have infective it's that ok ok I think there's probably a way to frolf the volume there for me new product tennis test test test test look at this that's a little bit better can you hear me okay okay good um no ok is that ok ok um ok so I'm susceptible exposed infective in this new option list are we okay with that who needs help right now I'm glad to come visit do a house call ok ok we're getting close so we have this initial option list and make it may seem it may seem cumbersome but believe me it's going to pay off in just a minute so initial state what do you think it's type will be now will it be an integer will be a double or will it be something we just added in the initial infection state ok now what would with the condition to go to exposed can anyone tell me what under what condition will we go to exposed well ok it's so sorry under what condition will be initially go to exposed if the one I heard it I think ok the parameter initial state equals what initial infection State DOT exposed in other words if we're told by this parameter hey go to this place we go there do you see what I mean sure so we just added a an option list right that specified three possible values susceptible exposed and infective right and then we said there's a there's a parameter and that parameter actually encodes to which of these options we want to be initially placed this parameter specifies in what location which should be initially placed this state this state of this other state do you see that that's why you're in fact we're coding these ok now this initial state what else is going to it's going to be one of these right okay ladies and gentlemen um and maybe particles it will be susceptible initial initial infection State DOT susceptible it'll be in a full did susceptible by the way notice wine calling it like this so it doesn't get confused with this susceptible it actually is specifically this one here now that's going to bring us to that susceptible but okay so ladies and John this this one here initial state it has to be one of these three values given person is going to have a parameter it says you go to this state you go to this date you go to that state some are going to have a parameter for this evaluates has go to susceptible others too exposed yet others ladies and gentlemen to infective and symptomatic do you see that ok so this parameters can tell them where to go and and this transition will be followed to exposed if that parameter value the value that parameter tells them hey go to exposed then they'll go here what will this condition be can anyone tell me can anyone riddle me that this final condition this one here what will the condition be here equals what indeed indeed indeed okay in fact infected and this one is to take care of the other so false so we don't have to specify that so so let me go there this one is if the if this is telling that go to effective this will go to that effective state if this one is telling it go to expose that will go here do you see the point do you see that okay so ladies a government a bit of mechanism yes but it will it will it will be joined by even greater view okay we're ready okay who would likely to spend a little bit more time on this are we okay can we proceed on ok now we'll come in the moment of beauty of additional beauty already we can route them to multiple states we're not depending on a yes no are you infected or not which only really deals with two possible States or not we're dealing with a thing we can distribute people now watch this go back to me go down Main and Kurt will appreciate the beauty of this moment so we're going to make okay okay now ladies and gentlemen we need to remember in the population we're going to need to specify someone's initial state right for each member population for each person the population in turn we need to specify the parameters for that person remember that crate for the population of people for each successful person we need a rule to get the home for that person right this is the draw it randomly from the set of homes we need a way of getting the initial state for each successive person what state is this one how about this one follow that one so what is it like what's the ammonia plus it i right we need a wave step a rule to specify for the initial state of formula for each person in turn will be run to assign them to an initial state right we need a way of drawing that from a distribution what initial state through where do mean how can we draw something from a custom distribution in any logic it hurts back to almost the first example we created with heterogeneity how can we do it indeed in the ancient palette what lies before us custom distribution let's draw it in and this will be called now initial state distribution okay watch that no current is yet innocent of this um so it's going to be an initial state distribution okay now Curt watch this because initial state is encoded as an option list what can we make this initial custom distribution be it's a custom distribution that's continuous discrete or options indeed in which option list initial state so now ladies and gentlemen now we can specify the number of the fraction of the population that's to fall in each of these groups so perhaps we want it doesn't even have to be a fraction it can be just as it could be an absolute number yeah that's exactly right yeah it could be you know three three hundred of them are in this you know 1200 from the empirical evidence now I'm going to I'm going to make it up maybe five percent are susceptible maybe maybe sorry three percent are susceptible to percent are initially exposed in the balance ninety-five percent are in this oh sorry I'm sorry I side of the day is late um okay this is what we want nineteen ninety-five percent susceptible to percent exposed three percent effective or we okay with that are we okay okay now what do we have to do to compute to complete complete the crowning the crowning achievement what do we need to put here for the initial state for for the population how is it what's the formula it's going to use for each successive person to determine their initial state can anyone give me that formula sorry yeah the initial state distribution what do I need to do to it I need to call it give me a value and it's going to draw from that distribution that ladies and gentlemen is in my mind beautiful we can elegantly specify in a declarative fashion in a distribution list fraction the population is in this initial state this one isn't that one that one that one however Meghan Ischl states you have and then we can divvy them up their tweets those those states in a very clean fashion everything to do is draw from the distribution so for each successive person in the distribution we will figure out their home by drawn from the homes we'll figure out their initial state by drawing from this distribution oh they're susceptible ok the next person will draw a home for them will drawn from the state distribution oh they're infected next person involved from the home straw from them from the initial state and there since up seven for each success person these will be wrong does that make sense and that will this ladies and gentlemen to fit in justice this morning we filled in that brilliant what this means is each person will start with some initial state s has been picked from that distribution some initial state here picked from that distribution right um and and then the because of that there will be routed hither and yon okay to this or to this sort of that ok oh we okay with that okay ladies and drama yes to things okay very good question I grateful for that question we put two equals when we're testing equality suppose we did that don't do this either at home or here but watch this suppose I did this what would the implication being can anyone tell me first what I will complain because it would say that's not that's not give gift or false but what were they trying to do it will assign to initial state an actual value will sign that value unfortunately Java as the language has been crafted to make to make it so it will realize that and refuse to do it in this position will realize you want to test equality but this is the way to test if there is equal rather than we were right in this case it looks like it's trying to overwrite it it's trying to sat initial state to a value said okay okay ladies and um so we have this distribution now okay um let's let's run this model for just a moment but there's still one piece missed to wit the distribution network the trends oh okay it's some unhappy camper let's fix the unhappiness oh look at that it says me oh I type to this capitals okay Java is case-sensitive it is a strict task Minister okay um and here we go here we go some people are starting effective some people are starting our starting expose it okay um okay now there's some pieces to fix up but fortunately on these pieces that believe will go quickly now even though there are key pieces so the first is late and gentlemen we need to implement a we need to implement a network in which people can be connected okay um okay now this this next piece will have a measure of delicacy as well okay so I'd ask you to follow this carefully go to Maine go down me in Maine select it so it can be viewed in the properties when I make for Maine is viewed if necessary you can select it over here um and and then you will go down Main down in the properties window okay and with inmate ladies alone you will go to this area called space sub-networks okay we're okay with that ladies and gentlemen we are going to want to connect to people together if they lie within a certain distance of each other we're assuming a distance mediated infection ladies and gentlemen this is going to be a distance-based connection of 75 okay connection range 75 ladies and gentlemen we want that to apply for people not for clinics and homes the connection homes are not in a network thereby we will do the fall to their four wheel to the following we will earn a check homes in clinics here will say don't bother putting homes and clinics in this network of of connection this this set of numbers rather choke oh sorry she's me Oh population on clinics and homes is that ok ok only homes and clinics are not selected population is selected are we okay with that population is selected homes and clinics or not ok ladies and gentlemen let us now run the model and I would protect would probably won't see anything yet in terms of that of a network and I'd like to tell me why what if we brought to do you make the network viewable that's the key thing and whither do we go to make whether we go to make the network of viewable sorry connect yes connections of home who's connections mains no patients connections not means connections main mains connections are our kind of underutilized almost destitute vestigial um connections ok lieutenant on to really use them on connections your inpatient or where the options out we want to go down to animation we want to draw a line connecting agents and draw the line behind agents ok so in connections the key thing is for patient this is all impatient because one of the patients interconnections to be drawn you want to go to patient you want to scroll down you want to go to animation if necessary expand it and you want to check draw a line connecting agents are we okay with that let us now simulate it here we go who is connected together who is connected to room it is patience ladies and gentlemen connected to each other it is three of that Network ladies and gentlemen know lots to the infection will spread right ok so let us simulate but a similarly at the spread of infection ok so we're going to speed up here and we're going to see if infection is spreading ok I don't actually see grand evidence that infection is spreading do you see any evidence I'm going to move expected to see it will spread out from these initially infected but I don't see that so ladies have done let's go figure out what's going on um ok internal thing you have this uh you know what this is thank you what is this depend on this depends on messages not exposed it's checking did I receive the message message is not exposed and it's a beautiful thing has just pointed out because this is inconsistent with that what message should i be sending here what message is it this one no it should be sending one messages dot exposed thank you very much that's that's great aqui aqui thing messages dot exposed ok messages dot exposed ok so that's that's one thing that's wrong but I would argue there may also be something with contact rate I don't know that we set contact right to a value I think the consecrate is currently unless the contact rate ladies gentlemen to be a default of one per day that's in Maine so in short we fixed things to wet this transition here we changed it to send the message we start exposed separately we went over to Main when we set the contact rating to be one per day notice by the way what is this double is that the best we can do it should be a rate your folks are really good seriously um I really am impressed okay so we'll specify a per day right here of one per day okay one per day and now inpatient this is also on a per day basis so I think we're fine I'm not positive that whether it would translate automatically I think it does but i'm not i'm not sure actually i'm not sure that there was something i saw ones that made me question that but here we haven't specified in per day right of one are we ready to try again okay ladies and gentleman let's try this here you go okay okay I see some action occuring the telltale signs okay so why is everyone in fact it now why do they remain infected because cure from that is what mediated by what riddle me that going to the clinic and right now they're not presenting for care in the coming okay so it's time for me to stop the recording and we're going to proceed on to the final summit okay the crown jewel of this will now be revealed okay