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>> NOW GOING INTO NEXT YEAR EVERYONE IS BEARISH. WERE GOING TO HAVE THIS MASSIVE RECESSION. >> WERE GOING TO HAVE A HUGE RECESSION ROLLING THROUGH HOUSING, RETAILERS AND OTHER SECTIONS OF THE ECONOMY. EVEN IF WE HOLD UP AGAIN, WE COULD ROLL INTO A RECESSION. >> WE ARE EXPECTING A MILD RECESSION BUT WE DON'T THINK IT WILL LAST LONG. >> THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE WITH TOM KEENE, JONATHAN FERRO AND TOM ABRAMOWITZ. LISA: GOOD RIDDANCE LEAVING THE WORST YEAR. WE HERALD THE LAST TRADING DAY OF THE YEAR TO FORGET. KAILEY: THAT'S ACROSS ASSET CLASSES, 401(K) PORTFOLIOS AND GLOBAL BONDS. IT HAS BEEN BRUTAL IN A WAY THAT NO ONE SAW COMING THIS POINT A YEAR AGO. MATT: THERE WERE SOME PEOPLE WHO KNOCKED THE BALL OUT OF THE PARK. IF YOU WERE IN SHORT RATES YOU WERE ON FIRE. SOME PEOPLE HAD A GOOD 2022. KAILEY: BLOCKBUSTER IF YOU ARE SHORT TRACK OF AND SEE IF YOU WERE LONG. 25 PERCENT LACK IN STOCKS. HOW MUCH DO YOU PIPIT FOR NEXT YEAR? HOW MUCH DO WE SEE THE WORST OF IT VERSUS JUST THE BEGINNING. MATT: HOW IMPORTANT IS THE CHANGE IN THE NUMBER AT THE BACK OF THE FOUR DIGIT YEAR? THE CALENDAR CHANGE DOESN'T MEAN YOU HAVE TO CHANGE YOUR STRATEGY. MAYBE YOU PIVOT AFTER THE NEXT QUARTER IF YOU GET EXECUTIVES THROWING THE KITCHEN SINK AT IT AND SAYING THINK INCESSANT -- CONFESSION IS FOR Q1 WE THROW EVERYTHING THERE. LISA: YOU BEEN TALKING THAT DESPITE OPTIMISM, WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE SANTA CLAUS RALLY. WE HAVEN'T SEEN THE YEAR-END MELT UP. YOU HAVE HEARD ABOUT TAX SELLING, LIQUIDITY. THERE IS SOMETHING GOING ON AS WELL? KAILEY: IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO BE LONG TO A YEAR AFTER THIS ONE. THE CALENDAR CHANGES THE PROBLEMS WE'VE BEEN DEALING WITH DON'T MAGICALLY GO AWAY ON THE FIRST. WE HAVE A FEDERAL RESERVE HIKING, ONGOING WAR IN UKRAINE, COVID TRAJECTORY IN CHINA AND CORPORATE EARNINGS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN THOSE ESTIMATES FALLING AND THEY HAVE TO CATCH UP AT SOME POINT. LISA: THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT PERHAPS WE HAVE SEEN INFLATION PEAK AND THAT HAS BEEN THE BIG QUESTION. 2022 WAS THE YEAR OF INFLATION. THE BIGGEST SINCE FOUR DECADES AGO. HOW MUCH IS THAT TO GIVE PEOPLE THE UMPH TO KEEP GOING. MATT: THE SPANISH DATA WE GOT THIS MORNING WAS A SURPRISE AND IT COULD BE A RAPID DECLINE. IT'S PROBABLY LIKELY WE COULD GET A SOFT LANDING, OR NO LANDING AT ALL. AND THEN IT DEPENDS ON YOUR BELIEF IN YOUR FAITH IN THE CREDIT. - IN THE FED. IS HE WILLING TO BE PAUL VOLCKER AND DO WHAT IT TAKES OR DO YOU THINK HE WILL FEAR HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT. FEAR REAL CONTRACTION IN EARNINGS AND THEN TURN TAIL AND CUT RATES. LISA: WE WILL NOT RECOUP OUR LOSSES TODAY BECAUSE WE ARE DOWN IN PREMARKET TRADING. A MILD DECLINE IN THE S&P WAS SHARES DOWN ABOUT ONE THIRD OF A PERCENT...