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throughout almost all our history the population of the United States of America has grown and grown and grown from Two and a half million people in 1776 to 330 million people today but what if that growth stops what if our population shrinks what then one man has devoted himself to studying that very question Dr Nicholas eberstadt on uncommon knowledge now [Music] thank you welcome to uncommon knowledge a fellow with the American Enterprise Institute Dr Everest I should say by the way that we're filming today at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington Dr Nicholas ebersdet earned both his undergraduate degree and his Doctorate in political economy from Harvard Dr eberstadt's many books and papers include poverty in China and the end of North Korea in recent years Dr eberstadt has been examining population and demography first he recognized that other countries have a problem publishing Russia's peacetime demographic crisis in 2010 in more recent years he has been describing this country's problem publishing men without work America's invisible crisis in 2016. our topic today well let me just read the title of a long essay Dr everstat published a National Review not long ago Can America cope with demographic decline Nick thank you for joining me thank you for inviting me Peter it's a pleasure to see you it's a pleasure to have you to myself to read an everstat essay with Nick everstadt all right Nick eberstadt I'm quoting you over the past decade and more since the crash of 2008 and the Great Recession really America's birth Trends have taken a fateful turn veering well below the replacement level close quote what is the replacement level what does it mean to Veer below what makes us suppose this is ominous the replacement level or a net reproduction ratio of one means that there's one baby girl born for every child bearing woman who's going to make it up to childbearing age herself what this means is that a society is on a long-term trajectory for population stability without compensating immigration or anything like that to keep things at stability or above for 30 years before the crash of 2008 almost 30 years the United States was the Lone large Rich society that was at replacement or slightly above the replacement level above this let's say 2.1 births per woman per lifetime level roughly speaking we have uh we have slumped steadily since 2008 we've been uh on an escalator going down and of course the covid shock uh didn't get everybody into the bedrooms having babies uh it actually had the opposite effect the United States is now maybe on track to be 20 percent below the replacement level uh if current trends continue which is a weasel word we always have to use because demographers are really pretty clueless about forecasting fertility into the future but if current trends continue uh the United States would be on a track without compensating immigration to...