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ECONOMIST AND HEAD OF THE MASTERCARD INSTITUTE BRICKLAND MYERS. >> THANK YOU, FRANK. GOOD TO BE HERE. >> INFLATION HAS ABOUT ON THE MARK FOR 2022. WHAT IS YOUR FORECAST FOR INFLATION GOING FORWARD IN 2023? >> SO, INFLATION IS THE KEY THEME FOR 2022 WE HAVE ALL GOTTEN INTIMATELY FAMILIAR WITH HOW PAINFUL INFLATION CAN BE INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN 2023 AS WE LOOK FOR A TOPPING OUT OF INFLATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS, WE EXPECT INFLATION TO REACH ABOUT 7.1% IN Q4 2022 AND MOVING DOWN 4.1% IN 2023 BY THE END OF THE YEAR. A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE. >> I HAVE TO ASK OBVIOUSLY, THIS IS THE ESTIMATE. 7.1%, THIS IS GLOBALLY AND THEN 3.1% IN Q3 NEXT YEAR I WANT TO ASK ABOUT WHAT IS WEIGHING ON THE MARKETS. THAT IS THE HIGH EMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE UNITED STATES THAT IS ONE REASON THE FED HASN'T PAUSED OR PIVOTED GIVE ME A SENSE OF WHERE INFLATION IS GOING GLOBALLY IN THE YEAR AHEAD >> EMPLOYMENT IS DEPENDING ON WHICH MARKET AND SECTOR WE'RE GOING INTO WITH RISING RATES AND PLACES LIKE THE U.S., WE EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER 100 BASIS POINTS OF RATE HIKES ACROSS THE WORLD, THERE CONTINUES TO BE RATE HIKES THERE IS A THROTTLING BACK OF RATE HIKES WHICH IS KEY RIGHT NOW THAT WE SEE FROM CENTRAL BANKS, INCLUDING FROM THE U.S., BUT ALSO MARKETS LIKE AUSTRALIA, CANADA AND EUROPE. CENTRAL BANKS ARE LOOKING AT THE RATE INCREASE AND THROTTLING BACK BASED ON WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE LABOR MARKETS AND UNEMPLOYMENT MARKETS AND WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH INFLATION INFLATION IS COMING DOWN AND STARTING TO THROTTLE THAT BACK THAT LIMITS SOME OF THE PAIN IN LABOR MARKETS. >> WHEN WE GET THE SENSE OF THE HEALTH OF THE CONSUMER IS HOW PEOPLE SHOP FOR GROCERIES. WHAT ARE WE SEEING ARE PEOPLE BUYING AS MUCH AS PEOPLE DURING THE PANDEMIC A LOT OF STOCKING UP AND PANTRY LOADING IN THE PANDEMIC. >> ONE OF THE KEYS OF THE OUTLOOK IS LOOKING AT TRADING DOWN TRADING DOWN PRODUCT AND BRAND AND TRADING DOWN STORE IF YOU THINK ABOUT GOING TO THE STORE AND YOU MAKE THAT TRADEOFF OF BUYING THE NAME-BRAND PRODUCT OR STORE BRAND PRODUCT OR THINKING WHERE TO SHOP, IT IS SHOWING UP MOST IN GROCERY THAT IS SHOWING HOW THE CONSUMER IS CHANGING BEHAVIOR TODAY IN ORDER TO CONTINUE TO CONSUME IN THE EXPERIENCE ECONOMY IT REALLY IS CHANGING BEHAVIOR AND THAT AISLE SHOPPING AT GROCERY STORES AND THINKING HOW THEY CAN CONTINUE TO SPEND ON THE EXPERIENCES THAT THEY MISSED OUT DURING THE PANDEMIC. >> ANOTHER FACTOR THAT IS ON THE MINDS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE IN THE UNITED STATES IS HOUSING COSTS. ONE FACTOR IN THE CORE PCE NUMBER THEY PAY ATTENTION TO WHERE ARE HOUSING COSTS IN THE UNITED STATES GOING? WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE HOUSING MARKET IN NEW YORK LATER IN THE SHOW WHAT DIRECTION IS IT GOING >> I HEARD...